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Morlun
March 13, 2009, 04:03 PM
When Genryuusai trapped the rogue shinigami, Aizen seemed absolutely confident that they would win the battle without him, Tousen and Gin having to fight.

There are two alternatives: either he's supremely confident on his top-3 Espada, or he has something else up his sleeve.

Considering the ultimate fate of all the Espada we've seen battling Captains, even though the top-3 are supposed to be elite, well, all the Espada were supposed to be elite, and before them common Arrancar were supposed to be elite. We've seen Captains (+ Ichigo) wipe the floor with Espadas 8 through 5, and we've seen a Vice-Captain level shinigami cheap-shot Espada 9 to death. I'm also pretty sure that Yammy's dumb luck will end sooner or later, and he'll fight one opponent that will not let him get away.

So, about Halibel, Barragan and Stark. I think they are elite, uber-powerful, fearsome, they'll be verbally elevated to the highest level by their opponents, and in the end, they'll be killed just like the rest, and for the purpose of this post, I'm going to assume that's what happens. Maybe it doesn't, and they wipe out their opponents. I'd like that, but I doubt it. Kubo doesn't like to kill his good guys.

Anyway, it would suck a bit if that happened and Aizen didn't expect it. I'm getting a bit tired of his "Oh, see, you killed all my men. I know I said I didn't expect it, but I did. Now look at my plan J!"... so, once again, for the purpose of this post, I'm going to assume Aizen is confident that something else will take care of the Captains, not his top-3.

There are several wide-spread theories on what will happen, some believe the vizards will side with Aizen (since if they side against him, they'll greatly outnumber Aizen's forces), others believe Aizen is using his shikai already and making the Captains kill each other... well when watching the anime episode this week, with the origins of the vizards, I thought of something else...

What if what Aizen did to the Vizards back then, he has already done to the Captains in Fake Karakura Town? What if they are all going to become Hollow? Not only would Kubo manage to give Aizen a win without killing any good guy, but he would give Aizen a new group of Espada (assuming the Captains would become pure Hollow if the transformation wasn't stopped, and that he could then hybridize them). Of course, if they just become Vizards due to someone's interference, then Aizen just boosted the power of his greatest enemies, so that'd be dumb...

But if Aizen has a weapon, which he has, that can be used against a group of Captains fighting in a wide area, which it can, and which can turn all the Captains into crazed hollows... well, why not use it?

nordicbattlesigns
March 13, 2009, 05:51 PM
Great theory!

It’s been a while since I read the “Turn Back the Pendulum” arc of the story, but if I remember correctly, those that became the Vizard were all of lieutenant class or stronger. (As #2 kidou corps, let’s assume for the sake of simplicity Hachi is likewise.) So Aizen certainly has the ready materials for a LOT of hollowfication right there - and good argument can be made to include Ikkaku and Yumichika at amongst that.

Thinking back, I believe the experimental subjects first needed to be wounded, though their emotional states contributed to the process too; Shinji only properly started to change when he lost his cool. And what situation is better for wounding and panic than in battle?

(Not that the exact requirements were ever made clear. It seems those who changed were wounded - all of them? Wounded with some hollow pathogen floating about or just wounded with a certain weapon such as Tousen used? That’s the question. Add stress, stir gently.)

Aizen would use this selectively however. Change some opponents rather than all, let them fight the rest. Some captains will be hard to touch let alone wound. Some are calm in battle - Yamamoto versus chimera is a good example - and might not suffer the emotional stress necessary to trigger the change. Conversely, most of the vice-captains are wounded or stressed already. Should Aizen choose to exploit that, this should be enough.

---

That said, I’m one of those believing in Aizen’s confidence. Now seeing Ulquiorra’s release, we begin to get a general idea of the power levels involved - plus the top Espada seem of a rather different stock to the others that became captain-fodder in Hueco Mundo. I anticipate a rather serious advantage to the Espada making a Vizard intervention necessary.

Yes, I expect the Vizard to side with Soul society on this one.

I actually don’t understand how people can expect the Vizard to become Aizen’s followers. None of them were disloyal to SS as Aizen was, even if SS cast them out - it makes more sense to go with the loyalty they know, and would be seriously out of character to suddenly follow the one who attacked them and made them what they are. Remember that Shinji NEVER trusted Aizen; he won’t willingly become his lackey now, and as the de facto leader of the Vizard, we can expect the rest will follow his lead. He did already come out to fight Grimmjow and if that’s not a demonstration of where his priorities are, I don’t know what is. Lastly there’s their connection to Urahara, the only one to help them in their hour of need, and we already know which side he is assisting.

shades7000
May 16, 2009, 10:13 PM
Okay, since the Fake Karakura Town arc started a lot of people have said that the bad side is currently overpowered by the good side (a statement I don't disagree with in any way) but let's see who's been defeated in each side so far for fun shall we? Oh and update this list in the thread as you see fit when the manga gets further, (This includes everyone who's fought in the fake karakura town arc)

Aizen's Army (former shinigami, espada, fraccion):
Sosuke Aizen - out of Yamamoto's fire prison
Gin Ichimaru - out of Yamamoto's fire prison
Kaname Tousen - out of Yamamoto's fire prison, fighting Hisagi and Komamura
Yammy Rialgo - fighting Renji, Chad, and Rukia
Stark - fights Shunsui Kyōraku and defeats him by shooting him with a cero in the back (fused with Lilinette), now fighting Love and Rose
Barragan Luisenbarn - fights Soifon and gets hit by her Bankai, and survives the blast, only to be owned again by her Bankai and Hacchi's kido.
Halibel - fights Tōshirō Hitsugaya and becomes frozen completely by his Bankai's special ability but manages to escape by destroying his ice prison
Ulquiorra Cifer - fought Ichigo & won but was defeated by his hollow;died
Loly - defeated by Yammy, saved by Ishida's arrow
Menoly - defeated by Yammy, status unknown
Lilinette - fighting Love and Rose (fused with Stark)
Avirama Redder - fought Izuru Kira and lost; died
Charlotte Cuuhlhourne - fought Yumichika Ayasegawa and lost; died
Findor Carias - fought Shūhei Hisagi and lost; died
Choe Neng Poww - defeats Ikkaku Madarame; lost to Sajin Komamura's bankai and died
Ggio Vega - fought Soi Fon and lost; died
Nirgge Parduoc - fought Marechiyo Ōmaeda and lost; died
Apache - fought Rangiku Matsumoto and Momo Hinamori; lost to Yamamoto's shikai
Mila Rose - fought Rangiku Matsumoto and Momo Hinamori; lost to Yamamoto's shikai
Sun-Sun - fought Rangiku Matsumoto and Momo Hinamori; lost to Yamamoto's shikai
Allon - defeated Hinamori, Matsumoto, Iba , and Hisagi; cut in half by Yamamoto; died
Rudubon - defeated by Rukia Kuchiki; slammed by Yammy
Wonderwice Margera - comes back in a garganta with "Superchunky" and defeats Ukitake by stabbing him in the back, gets hit by Mashiro
Fura - blows out Yamamoto's fire prison freeing Aizen,Gin, and Tousen, gets hit by MASHIRO KICK, needless to say he died....
Losses:16

Soul Society/Vizard(Ichigo's gang, current Lieutenant and Captain shinigami):
Shigekuni Yamamoto-Genryūsai - defeated all 3 of Halibel's fraccion and Allon easily
Chōjirō Sasakibe - finally showed up,was protecting the fake karakura town barrier
Soifon - defeated Ggio, lost a arm while fighting Barragan, exhausted all spiritual energy
Marechiyo Ōmaeda - defeated Nirgge Parduoc, fighting Barragan
Izuru Kira - defeated Avirama Redder, currently healing all the Lieutenants that were defeated by Allon
Retsu Unohana - stuck in Hueco Muedo, status unknown
Isane Kotetsu - stuck in Hueco Muedo, status unknown
Hanatarō Yamada - stuck in Hueco Muedo, status unknown
Momo Hinamori - fought Halibel's fraccion; defeated by Allon
Byakuya Kuchiki - stuck in Hueco Muedo, status unknown
Renji Abarai - fighting Yammy Rialgo
Sajin Komamura - defeated Choe Neng Poww, currently fighting Tousen
Tetsuzaemon Iba - defeated by Allon
Shunsui Kyōraku - defeated by Stark after getting shot in the back by a cero
Nanao Ise - not in Hueco Muedo or fake karakura town (seriously where the hell is she?!? there's a war going on lol)
Shūhei Hisagi - defeats Findor Carias, defeated by Allon, later recovers to fight Tousen
Tōshirō Hitsugaya - currently fighting Hailbel
Rangiku Matsumoto - fought Halibel's fraccion; defeated by Allon
Kenpachi Zaraki - stuck in Hueco Muedo, scaring Nell out of her wits lol
Yachiru Kusajishi - stuck in Hueco Muedo, status unknown
Ikkaku Madarame - defeated by Choe Neng Poww
Yumichika Ayasegawa - fought Charlotte Cuuhlhourne and defeats him; currently incapacitated by Kira's "shinten"
Mayuri Kurotsuchi - stuck in Hueco Muedo, status unknown
Nemu Kurotsuchi - stuck in Hueco Muedo, status unknown
Jūshirō Ukitake - defeated by Wonderwice Margera by getting stabbed in the back
Ichigo Kurosaki - fought Ulquiorra Cifer; managed to win against him after his hollow side was unleashed
Uryū Ishida - fought Ulquiorra Cifer for a short while; lost his left hand to him and stabbed in the stomach by Ichigo's hollow form, left in a weakened state since then
Orihime Inoue - currently in Hueco Muedo with Ichigo and Ishida
Yasutora Sado - currently fighting Yammy Rialgo
Nell - stuck in Hueco Muedo, with Kenpechi scaring the living bejesus out of her lol
Dondochakka Bilstin - stuck in Hueco Muedo, status unknown
Pesche Guatiche - stuck in Hueco Muedo, status unknown
Bawabawa - stuck in Hueco Muedo, status unknown
Shinji Hirako - tries to fight Aizen, Tosen gets in the way
Love Aikawa - preparing to fight Stark
Kensei Mugurama - fought some Gillian
Mashiro Kuna - killed Fura, and kicked Wonderwice Margara
Rōjūrō Otoribashi - preparing to fight Stark
Hiyari Sarugaki - fighting Tia Harribal
Hachigen Ushoda - fought and killed Barragan
Lisa Yadamaru - fighting Tia Harribel
Losses:7 (9 if you count that Ishida got owned by Ulquirroa and Hollow Ichigo and that Yumichika is sleeping)

Others which haven't been seen in a while:
Kisuke Urahara - status unknown
Yoruichi Shihōin - status unknown
Isshin Kurosaki - status unknown
Ryuken Ishida - status unknown

kkck
May 17, 2009, 04:06 AM
It is way too early to say who is losing and who is winning.

A bunch of espada died in HM but the price of that was that a bunch of catains could not fight in the winter war. There is a small chance aizen lost more in the long run but in the inmediate events aizen and SS are even.

The fraccion vs VC are of no consequence whatsoever in this battle. The truth is a VC is just a VC. While that is a nice rank in SS, they are still worthless fodder that exist simply to do jobs that are beneath a captain. Any current VC can be easily slain and replaced and old yama said all those chapters ago. Fraccion are in the same situation, they mostly work as espada subordinates to boost their egos and do stuff which is beneath a espada. No amount of VC or fraccion can ultimately defeat any single espada or captain, thats just how different they are.

Currently in the winter war there are 6 captain level warriors on aizens side and 6 captain level warriors on SS side. In that sense they are even. Old yama did trap aizen, tousen and gin inside a fire prison but the captains are still doing 1 on 1 fights mostly so there are basically 3 captains who are doing as much as aizen, gin and tousen. Soi fon seems to be in a pinch but I do want to point out the battle is not over yet. In any case I doubt soi fon will be able to continue fighting after her fight with barragan if she happens to win so the scenario should pretty much remain even.

The question about what aizen truly expects out of the war also remains. For all we know he has planned scenarios in which his espada win and lose.

In conclusion, currently the war is pretty much even and we won't have a clear idea of a winner until aizen shows if he has a secret plan for this whole thing.

shades7000
May 17, 2009, 12:53 PM
Good response, actually you're right even if the current three captains do manage to defeat the espada it should still be pretty even because Hitsugaya, Soifon, and Shunsui are probably gonna be too worn out to fight other opponents. Who knows, Aizen is probably confident that he has a plan for whatever is in store, hopefully it involves his Bankai (who knows how much that can change things around for his side?) or the Vasto Lorde.

slmcknett
May 17, 2009, 01:13 PM
I also want to know what Isshin and Ryuken are up to, and if they're gonna help out during this little war. I doubt Ryuken will, but Isshin was once a captain and's got to have some serious spiritual energy. Mostly, during this war, I want to see Aizen, Urahara, Isshin, and Shinji fight full out, with Bankai (and Shikai for Isshin and Shinji).

drakend
May 17, 2009, 03:28 PM
Others which haven't been seen in a while:
Vizard - status unknown (methinks they're in the actual Karakura town which would suck they can't do anything there!)

Congrats for the nice post, anyway this part made me think...
The Vaizards are in real Karakura Town, so they're in SS now.
This means unrestricted access to the already existing royal key, which is within SS most likely! :D

Forever_Melody
May 19, 2009, 09:21 AM
Well the Vizard IIRC are in some kinds of untraceable Gigai(that Urahara made for them) so I assume perhaps SS didn't notice them while transferring Karakura town. And what of Isshin and Ryuuken? Isshin was in a Gigai until recently it seems and Ryuukne has always been there.

Anyways as kkck said, it's a bit early to judge who's going t win and who's not.