Iranian Uprising

[Kaiten]

While seemingly dying down the Iranian uprising triggered by the June election has proven to be one of the most significant political events of the year. News has gotten hard to come but there are still significant things to discuss: the fault lines running through the Iranian politico - religious - military establishment, popular frustration with the regime, the role of technology in organizing a modern insurrection, the impact of a liberalized or moderate Iran on middle eastern politics. I'm curious what everyone thinks about it.

[Dark-san]

The government should live in fear of their people not the other way round. I kind of disagreed with the fact that the current Iranian government uses force to dismantle the protest. I mean if that many people has gathered into the streets and protested against the electoral results, chances are that something must be wrong somewhere. It could be that the results are rigged or a serious vote miscount. But then usage of force to dismantle the protest is not democracy especially guns.

[Kaiten]

Any political system that stifles legitimate protest has to enforce unpopular decisions with guns and tear gas. The Iranian government has become more conservative through out the Bush years. Power shifted from the religious establishment to the military. They are hemmed in by U.S. forces and allies; Afghanistan and the Central Asian Republics to the east and northeast, Iraq, Turkey, and Israel to the west, Saudi Arabia to the south. Just before their own election a pro western coalition was elected in Lebanon, at the expense of Iranian backed Hezbollah. The military establishment, backed by Khamenei, feel hemmed in and scared. The fallout from the protests have shown that not even the religious establishment support them. They needed their candidate, Ahmadinejad to win. When he lost they stuffed the ballot. When the people rose against them they could only respond with force. They don't have the room to compromise, meeting in the middle would strip the military of all the political power they've built this decade.