Protests in the wider Arab world

[Roflkopt3r]

What kind of odds would you get on Algeria going next? 20 years too late but its coming.

I am a pessimist in such things, so I'll just say "not too good". The events were awesome so far, but it won't just sweep away all the dictators, sadly.

[digitaldude]

Algeria is going to be a lot more violent than eygpt, and so far it's only the north african arab nations that are protesting...How come?

[Akainu]

well meanwhile there is also protest in Bahrain and Yemen, both situated on the arabian peninsular. anyway, there are multiple reasons why tunesia and egypt had successfull revolutions (insofar their heads of state were ousted) and others don't, for example the military taking a more or less neutral point. also many of the problems are the same, but the structures are very diffrent (and thus hard to sum up).
To add my two cents to Algeria though: I don't think that the protests there will reach such a scale anywhen soon. The population is tired of war and conflict I read and they won't risk the peace they just recently gained to trade it for "change to something else" which could be democracy, but islamist just as well.

The Economist got a nice interactive map summing up some key points, however that disregards factors like repressiveness and a war-tired population.

[Roflkopt3r]

Interesting point I've heard of recently:
The Iranian revolution was recepted pretty similar in the west compared to the recent ones. Well, everybody knows what the long term result was... Though it was different obviously, after all there are no such important key/head figures like Chomeini involved this time and it really seemed a "democratic" revolt.

[dark lord]

People have arisen in libea and its a complete blood bath in there, Qaddafi is a complete jackass and he's shooting his own people.

[Roflkopt3r]

I always kinda liked Gadaffi as a person - not as a ruler - like when he painted a graffiti on the U.N. speaker's desk

Well, politically, no question, it's better if he'll finally be gone... Probably EU and US are keeping out even much more this time...
Rumor has it (well based rumors) that the EU gave money to Gadaffi specifically for his imprisonment camps for capturing people who were trying to get to the EU. He's even torturing people there, and yet the EU pays him, for the "good news" that less Africans make it to our continent...
Absolutely perverted in every way.

[dark lord]

This is truley unfair.

Why does Europe and US get to have democracy and we have totall idiots oppressing us ?

Can you believe that we have a whole family controlling our governement?

[Imperium]

Bahrain is so significant right now. Im pessimistic of whether those protests will succeed, but the Saudi's will try everything they possibly can to make sure the Khalifa royal family stay in power. There have been reports, some of the attacks on the protesters have come from Non-Bahraini police, the saudi hand is already showing. Its scary what it will do to their economy though, they never had much oil in the first place.

There have been other protests in Yemen and Algeria, with some starting in Jordan. Im really pessimistic about the first two. Like Akainu said, military neutrality is pivotal. But having seen what that has done to Egypt im positive the rulers will guard against that.

Well, politically, no question, it's better if he'll finally be gone... Probably EU and US are keeping out even much more this time...
Rumor has it (well based rumors) that the EU gave money to Gadaffi specifically for his imprisonment camps for capturing people who were trying to get to the EU. He's even torturing people there, and yet the EU pays him, for the "good news" that less Africans make it to our continent...
Absolutely perverted in every way.

Its not only because of immigration. Immigration benefits the EU, they just want to be able to control it. The main reason they back those Mediterranean leaders is because of Energy. Libya has vast natural resources, with many pipelines going into Europe and more being planned. Right now the EU are trying to diversify its energy away from its Russian dependence. By building alternate pipelines to the Central Asian -stans and to North African countries rich in resources like Libya.

Its evident in Italys burgeoning friendship, Britain's reluctance to bow to public pressure over the release of the lockerbie bomber (al-Megrahi) and its general more positive relationship with Gadaffi. Ever since he abandoned the nuclear weapons building, they have been helping him more and more. Its always a question of interests, its in the EU's interest to help him, so they do.

[Roflkopt3r]

Its not only because of immigration. Immigration benefits the EU, they just want to be able to control it. The main reason they back those Mediterranean leaders is because of Energy. Libya has vast natural resources, with many pipelines going into Europe and more being planned. Right now the EU are trying to diversify its energy away from its Russian dependence. By building alternate pipelines to the Central Asian -stans and to North African countries rich in resources like Libya.

In that case it was about money directly spent into such camps used to imprison people who try to cross the border illegaly, mostly under terrible and inhuman conditions. It's part of the extremely disgusting methods the EU uses to stop refugees before they reach the Schengen zone...
Another one are paid security forces roaming around in the mediterran sea taking water and gas from refugee boats so that they cannot continue their travel and often end up dead... Unarguably condemnable, isn't it? This is not the coast guard btw. These are private companies hired to intercept the refugees before they're in range of the coast guards which are bound to laws and thus have to safe refugees in distress. Rather they operate under now law at all.

Either way, the western nations and spefically the EU have highly condemnable connections to countries such as Lybia.

[Imperium]

Either way, the western nations and spefically the EU have highly condemnable connections to countries such as Lybia.

Find me a commendable country and I'll find you a poor one.

I dont disagree with you though. The tactics are utterly shameful and abhorrent.

[Akainu]

@Bahrain: news said earlier that police - the usual police that is used every day anyway - was build from hired foreigners. thus they concluded there is no connection to the people and they can violently end the protests - just that like in every other case until now it had the opposite effect for now: from people calling for the removal of the prime minister it escalated to people demanding the removal of the whole royal family from power. also since there is a shia majority governed by a sunni elite, there is a chance they will actually succeed - if none of the exterior powers (Saudi-Arabia, US and Iran) mingle with the politics which could actually trigger a conflict between those said forces like wikileaks suggested it isn't unwanted...

@Libya: it's kinda funny how europe illuminates the interior of Gaddafis digestives, for example the political row with switzerland where they just couldn't be bothered to support our small mountainious neighbour because, well Libya is so mighty. He really is a problem though - a leading figure in both Africa and the Arab world with connections to terrorists could do quite some harm, so better not say a thing :/ now the funny part is, our policy is the same towards each and every other dictator around the world whether they actually have something to say or not, but that would lead too far here ^^'

[Imperium]

if none of the exterior powers (Saudi-Arabia, US and Iran) mingle with the politics which could actually trigger a conflict between those said forces like wikileaks suggested it isn't unwanted...

They will if they are not already. They can't avoid not getting involved. The loss of the Khalifa family from a ruling position would mean the whole geo political landscape in the area would change. Bahrain is currently an effective satellite state of Saudi Arabia, who are the regional power. A democratic Bahrain in any form would mean the Shia majority would begin gravatating away from Saudi influence and more towards Iranian influence who lie not far away, across in the Persian gulf. Iran getting more influence in the gulf is a horror scenario for the Saudi's (and Americans). They already have de-facto control the straits of Hormuz, which is probably the most important body of water in the whole of the middle east if not the world. 40% of sea-bond oil shipments flow through it, and in so far Iran has been toeing the line. But if Iran get more influence in the gulf region then that will directly result in diminishing Saudi influence and as a consequence diminishing western influence in that region. And more leverage for Iran to exert itself.

The Saudis are also scared because the protests could trigger the minority Saudi Shia community. The Royal family have been suppressing them for decades, and its only recently they began to mellow out (they gave them local elections and allowed them to appoint local leaders) But what is important is where that population lives. They live almost exclusively on the eastern coastline where almost all of Saudi oil is. They are the local workers in the plants and refineries. The Saudi Royal family is trying on one hand to quell the Bahrain protests so the Iranians dont increase their influence, and to also try and make sure it doesn't spread to their own Shia minority so that it doesn't affect their oil exports or the volatile oil market.

Iran in their own case are surrounded by not only US troops on both sides, but also in their own pond. They will do anything it takes to exploit this so they can implement a more democratic government. Its ironic but democracy is Iran's best weapon in Bahrain and they will use it (while suppressing it themselves). But if it works it will mean they can exert more pressure on neighbouring countries and a ally in the gulf.

Democratic Bahrain means a country influenced by its masses. That mass is not only shia, but also one that is subjugated by its royal family. It would be more open to Iran then ever before. In any case, the Saudis and America will try their hardest to make sure it doesnt happen. Which is why im pretty pessimistic about it all succeeding. Whats also sad about Bahrain is that they were the liberal lights of the region. Their social reforms were great especially the ones on changing the foreign labour market. The gulf foreign labour market is as close to modern slavery as you will ever find.

[Akainu]

I heard about the labour market producing very weird situations, like the UAE that only have about 900.000 citizens and about 4 million workers - unrest is very unlikely to come up there I think, neither from the "aboriginees" there nor from the workers. While the former are too few, the latter need the money and will keep quiet. Additionally the workers aren't from one ethnicity/region/culture either, so...

Anyway, it's quite paradox that it could be the iranian influence bringing democracy to the peninsula, isn't it? While there are new protests in Iran itself, those probably won't be successfull either (hope they will, never seen such a sad thing as a nation and it's people getting hijacked by blockheads). However I read an article lately that Oman too was rather close to Iran - or so the UAE feared and sent their spies because of that.

[Imperium]

I heard about the labour market producing very weird situations, like the UAE that only have about 900.000 citizens and about 4 million workers - unrest is very unlikely to come up there I think, neither from the "aboriginees" there nor from the workers. While the former are too few, the latter need the money and will keep quiet. Additionally the workers aren't from one ethnicity/region/culture either, so...

Anyway, it's quite paradox that it could be the iranian influence bringing democracy to the peninsula, isn't it? While there are new protests in Iran itself, those probably won't be successfull either (hope they will, never seen such a sad thing as a nation and it's people getting hijacked by blockheads). However I read an article lately that Oman too was rather close to Iran - or so the UAE feared and sent their spies because of that.

The labour market is a dressed up and pretty form of modern slavery. Throughout the whole area it works simliarily.

Places with large labour like South asia are targeted. Recruiters will go to rural villages in those areas, promise locals astronmical wages (for them) to come to the gulf. Tickets are paid. These people come. To work they need to be sponsored by a local. This local is entitled to a share of their wages. The share is by agreement (naturally in favour of the local). He also holds their passport, so the worker cannot leave the country without his express permission. The workers work permit is also under his control, so if you make cause trouble for the local your out of the country. So they take some of your wages, they control your movement and have the ability to kick you out. All this power isnt in a goverment or organisation but on a whim of a local. Abuse is widespread.

The large buildings you see in Dubai, Doha, Abu Dhabi have been built through this. The locals dont get their hands dirty in anything. Its why the whole Gulf has such a disproportionate population. Its why its indigenous population is either unemployed or in the public sector. Very few actually work in the private sector. A lot of the unemployed themselves are technically not even unemployed as a most of them have their own sponsors and the Government pays them a lot in benefits.

One last thing there is no limit to the sponsors one can have. I remember when I was in Oman (beautiful country) renewing my visa, it was in the same building where they renew the work permits. I swear to god, this young man, early 20's max, came in with his arms full of passports, went to the desk and said "renew all of them". He had in tow behind him about 20-30 south Asians. The guy i was with who was a local, knew him and said they were all his sponsors.

Not all foreign workers are like this. But the vast poorer less skilled majority are. More skilled workers (Read really skilled: Doctors, Engineers), and westerners are sponsored by their companies.

A couple of the countries have been trying to curb this practise (the need for it is diminishing) and it was lead by Bahrain who banned it a couple of years ago.

Its a paradox isnt it. xD But to be honest, Iran itself with its presidential elections is more democratic then these countries who are ruled simply by royal families. Oman have some problems of their own. They own some land on the strait of Hormuz which is probably where the Iran links come from. As those two countries are the only ones who have land on that important strait of water.

[Roflkopt3r]

@Libya: it's kinda funny how europe illuminates the interior of Gaddafis digestives, for example the political row with switzerland where they just couldn't be bothered to support our small mountainious neighbour because, well Libya is so mighty. He really is a problem though - a leading figure in both Africa and the Arab world with connections to terrorists could do quite some harm, so better not say a thing :/ now the funny part is, our policy is the same towards each and every other dictator around the world whether they actually have something to say or not, but that would lead too far here ^^'

Actually the Switzerland affair was so hillarious (apart from Gadaffi taking a hostage)
Iirc... he said that Switzerland should be invaded because it's the financee for all mafia. Then he added that mysteriously people would be killed by the swiss government after placing lots of money on swiss bank accounts, and that this would actually be how Switzerland finances themselves - attracting rich people, then killing them and taking their money.
Finally he said the country should be split in three and added to Germany, France and Italy

Gadaffi is the perhaps biggest TROLL politics ever saw