Like us on Facebook, follow us on Twitter! Celebrate another year with MH and read our yearbook.
Manga News: Check out this week's new manga (7/7/14 - 7/13/14).
Forum News: Visit new sections for Nisekoi and Kingdom!
I still maintain my belief that Ustegius is a mafia. In Ustegius’s very first post, he makes subtle excuses for BBB who was the primary suspect at the time. In that very post he ends by saying 'he is just not playing well'. In his very next post here, he further tries to give BBB an alibi for his suspiciousness and tries to compare him with other members that have ended up as a townie and then finishes again by saying 'I'm slightly leaning towards him being honest. Stupid player, but honest'. He is clearly elusively trying to make an excuse for BBB under the mask of a person that is concerned about the safety of the entire town and there is no reason for him to be so intent on getting across the idea that BBB may be innocent as he has displayed nothing but suspicious actions.
As a mafia, you never want to fully commit to the possibility of one of your compatriot's innocence especially when they are in the hot seat like BBB was in. Ustegius knows this well and he played to his limits and did so consistently. The way Ustegius has behaved is somewhat typical of a good mafia. Even his posts that are seemingly critical of BBB’s statements never straightforwardly allude to the possibility of BBB being mafia and are more like corrections that most people here will interpret as being against BBB which is not the case. His posts are wrapped up in a ball of deceit.
He also uses DL to reinforce and further hint that BBB is innocent in this post. He starts off by giving reasons for why DL is on his radar but then ends with 'Though I have a faint feeling that he is similar to BBB' as if he is completely sure that BBB is a townie. Again, for BBB who has displayed nothing but abnormal behaviour in his posts as a supposed townie, I wouldn't expect Ustegius to repetitively hint at his innocent. It is clear that he made posts of this nature so that perhaps people will take it into consideration and would save his compatriot without seeming that he is intentionally trying to keep him alive. After all, if he was a townie, he would have no definite proof in the first day phase of BBB’s innocence.
Also remember when BBB died, he made a statement about his mafia partners catching on to his supposed intentions of trying to get himself killed and they apparently 'accepted' it. Because the mafia are not allowed to discuss during the day phases, this suggests that there were some members of the mafia visibly incriminating him, otherwise he would not have been able to come to that conclusion. His statement also does not necessarily have to imply that his partners were amongst those that ended up voting for him, but rather they could have simply been amongst those that increasingly accused him of being in the mafia. Ustegius fits the bill here.
BBB making that post was a mistake by the Mafia because he essentially narrowed down the suspects to those that increasingly accused him as the time for the day phase to end drew nearer. In Ustegius's post here, he acknowledges the fact that there is only one hour left of the day phase and goes on to say that he is suspecting BBB more. At that point in time, BBB’s death was more or less inevitable and so Ustegius tactically distanced himself from anything that looked like he was on the side of BBB, and the post was also coincidentally the only post he made that was not ambiguously giving excuses for BBB.
The word 'accepted' is also significant in BBB's post because it reinforces the fact that his mafia partner did not initially start off accusing him but conceded eventually. Ustegius was one of the only people if not the only person to start off claiming that BBB is probably innocent, but then end up saying he is suspecting him more, 1 hour before the day phase was supposed to end. This is also similar to what I did in game 6 when I was mafia and Asc was going to be lynched.
*You’re beginning to tremble and your palms are sweaty, Ustegius*
Also, Ustegius knew that BBB’s post was potentially a crucial mistake and immediately attempted to resolve it. I presume he responded in quick haste to BBB's post and said that the post makes him think that the mafia are amongst the ones that voted for him. He said that intentionally in an attempt to divert the suspicion away from himself, because he was not one of the people that had voted for BBB.
If you also look on that specific page of the mafia game discussion thread where Ustegius responded to BBB’s post, he was not involved in the discussion at all and had not made any other posts whatsoever in the previous or following page. The only post he made for four pages was the one in response to that particular post BBB made. It is clear that that specific post BBB made was the bone of his contention and he was quick to respond to it in order to rectify BBB’s mistake.
I gotta hand it to you Ustegius, you are a good mafia and so I ain’t surprised that you are coasting through undetected. However, Ustegius, you can never trick a trickster and that may have been the only thing that you didn’t account for. I will always be five steps ahead of you. I give you credit for successfully managing to remain more or less invisible to me in the previous game, but fool me twice, shame on me. The game 7 blunder won’t happen again. In the final words of Goku to Buu, 'Maybe you will come back some day. As a better person, I hope. I’d like that'
Last edited by Freid; March 23, 2011 at 12:34 PM.
- I were wrong with BBB. I didn't think he would be as stupid as that as mafia, again. And he was.
- I wouldn't have specifically brought up the "fellow mafia accepted my death" part if I were mafia.
- You are first saying that I kinda defended BBB, then you are saying I incresingly accused him. WTF? I'd say my direction was other wise. I accused him less and less as the phase continued.
- Yes, if it was between Blai and BBB, I'd kill BBB since we had more on him at that point. Killing Blai would have been random. I only said that because if it was coming down to double kill, I'd change.
- So joining into discussion after a while of being away is suspicious? KEEL EVERYONE THAT TALKS!
I can't believe you spend all that energy on writing that. Though I thank you, since the mafia won't dare to kill me now, even if they know that I have a role. Besides, I think you first accused me before most of this stuff with BBB you used as "evidence" even happened.
Last edited by Ustegius; March 23, 2011 at 12:25 PM.
Lol Ustegius, I've explained all your queries in my post.
The only thing to make clear though is that by my statement of you increasingly accusing him, I was getting at the fact that you initially wasn't directly accusing him as others were, but was merely pointing out faults in his play and then later you more or less accused him. But even that should have been obvious from the entire context of my post.
You don't have to thank me though. I did it because I wanted to so it's ok I think I'll revert back to my sixth sense excuse from now on though.
Last edited by Freid; March 23, 2011 at 12:30 PM.
lol at Freid. He is so obviously mafia or butthurt that I outplayed him last time.
That's how I always play. If I find flaws or anything suspicous, I point them out to make sure others noticed too. Isn't that natural? I'm cautious by nature and wouldn't want to kill anyone before I'm confident in my feel.
lol You know what, I kinda expected you or one of your buddies to try and reverse positions. If my innocence aint clear as day to the real townies then there is nothing I can do about that
Of course it has to be me, since I have no buddies
I admire your stubborness Ustegius. It's only a matter of time though
Last edited by Freid; March 23, 2011 at 12:46 PM.
Whoa my eyes hurt after reading all these theories.
I think that Cblitz is the most suspecious character right now. He interacted alot during the BBB situation which made him a little bit more suspicious than the rest of the people you guys mentionned. As for Ust, if Cblitz wasn't the prime suspect for me atm, I would vote for him...
If Cblitz was a townie, he would've voted randomly or with a good reason without defending anyone. (only masons would defend their mates and it's very unlikely that he's a mason)
Vote kill Cblitz
If you are mafia, I congratulate you for playing well.
Edit: Misread the post.
Anyway, I know now you're gonna be butt hurt again and then try to kill me in the next game
Last edited by Freid; March 23, 2011 at 01:12 PM.
So much text...
I find it amusing to read the interactions between Freid and Uste. Granted, I've only read through Game 7 and participated in Game 8 and this one, but from that I've gotten the impression that they're like sworn enemies. And I never quite know who to believe.
Still waiting for Imp to provide the remaining information he said he'd "nail to the church door". What's taking him? ... Huh? Real life? What's that?
Actually, real life is calling me too, and I'm getting a tiny bit stressed since I don't know how active I'm gonna be able to be the rest of the day phase. I just hope I won't have to vote before Imp gets back with the nail gun and info sheet.
I hate how you misjudge me Freid. I wasn't butthurt last time, I only seized the oppurtunity you gave. I wouldn't continue this silly rivalry on expense of my team. And I think majority of FF regulars know that.
I like the new change of tone/tactic to get across to the other participants. Relax though. You're not gonna die in this day phase. You might not even die in the next day phase 'cause that sort of thing happens over night. The tide completely changes and someone new becomes number 1 suspect.
Yo yo, i am here. this took some time as well. Ill post it now. Maybe some grammar check needed but another time. >.>
I see walls. @_@ I’ll try and keep this short.
I didn’t meant to be melodramatic in the last post, it was just too late to post this. But in any case, the information I am speaking about is not that we recruited a detective or something. The information we got was firstly from our own initiative and it secondly was damn time consuming. >.< Ill start now in anycase.
What we (masons) did in our night phase was principally one thing. Watching. We spent all our time simply watching the movements of players immediately after the night phase. Some background before I start to those who won’t immediately understand. MH as a forum has a function regular members can use. That function is, “invisibility”. Some understand the advantage of being invisible in this game. What invisibility does it eliminates the person’s movements from public view. Any user who is not invisible, by just checking their user profile you see the last time they came online. More importantly if they are not invisible and they are online, you can see what thread they are viewing or what they are currently doing by looking at their user profile. Now a lot of people already know this and its why some are invisible to protect themselves against that happening. But as far as I am aware nobody has actively tried to observe all the members activity during the night simultaneously.
I began doing this from game 7. That game is more easily remember as the yakuza and triad game. If you remember I as a member of the yakuza along with Cblitz. The first thing I mentioned to Cblitz when night phase started was simply “go invisible and observe everyone, we will find out the triads or masons like that”. He promptly went invisible and we began to look at players user profiles. Our aim was simple; anyone who was private messaging more than once was an enemy. We found a couple who were. Mainly though, there were three. Ustegius, pirulito and digitaldude. The first two were the most suspicious; they were not only private messaging they were private messaging in a specific pattern. They never private messaged at the same time. It was always one of them pms then the other pms, repeat, repeat. To cut a long story short, we decided to kill Pirulito. He was a triad. His death then confirmed one thing for us; Ustegius was almost definitely a triad. Because of a variety of different reasons and simple chance, ustegius lived longer than we wanted. Cblitz can confirm what I am saying.
Because I am a bit of a drama queen, I couldn’t help but gloat in the end, even though I was also killed.
tldr: I am awesome.
In any case, because of its success I wanted to use the same method again in the next game but that was cut short. So we ended up at game 9 the next time I was able to use it. Now let me make this clear, you need two things to observe people effectively this firstly, a) Patience b) no life, I have both in abundance .
What we essentially did was open a separate tab for every single online player and refresh their page every half or full minute. And if they pm’d, we wrote down their name and the time. We did from the exact second the night phase began, too, give or take a couple of hours afterwards (See, I did mean painstaking!). The logs of the masons conversation are interesting in that all they really consisted of were essentially “ooh that persons pming”, “omg so is that person” “oooh they’re pming again!” etc etc
It was a long process and you have to bear in mind, there are two types who we did not get to observe. Those that are invisible (scav, good_boy, dark lord, hystzen etc) and those that were not online at the time (zeltrax etc), but we did get a good look at a little more than half the players. We saw those who sent one quick pm, to those who sent loads.
Now before I begin the results, they are two things to note. The reason we looked specifically for pm’s.
A person who sends 1 pms during the night phase can potentially be any role. E.g. The detective sending a pm to evil3ye. Or someone asking a question . We observed some people do something similar. More than 2, especially more than 3 mean two things. They are either have a role in the game which requires conversation or the pm is about something unrelated. However the reason I disregard the second point is because of the time period in which we observed, it would be too much of a coincidence for someone to start receiving pms and replying to them just right after the night phase start and it still be about something completely unrelated. A person who sends more than 2, can only have two roles. Those two roles are the only two roles in which a person is allowed to hold a conversation. They are Mason and Mafia. No one else will need to send more than 1/2 pms max. We know who are members of the mason, which only leaves one thing. Mafia.
Now I wont mention those who pmd once, to keep their probably pro-townie roles secret. There were two people however who pm not one, not twice, not even three times. But much much more than that. The first is Pirulito.
(all times in GMT)
Night phase began at 17:57 for me. Pirulito’s log:
18:07 - Viewing user profile
18:08 - Private messaging
18:13 – Finished private messaging
He left it there, and that was one. Suddenly Xadyu began pming and then he pmed again
18:26 – Private messaging
18:30 - Private messaging
(During this time we were distracted by the Xadyu who began pming frantically…we suspect we missed more pms from piru)
18:40 Private messaging
The second person was Xadyu. He pmd I think we counted a total of 6 times.
He made a short one at 18:25 and then sent a pm something like every couple of minutes up until 18:45.
I have to thank scav and orgz because they made this post much shorter. They layed the case against pirulito quite well and succinctly. The case to lay against Xadyu is harder, he vote BBB banana and for all appearances seems to be acting townie. The only thing I can say for him is that he is not suspicious. And because of that, I think he is suspicious. For someone who gets kicks out of confusing people to not try and even subtly troll says much much more than a few random statements.
@Daytime vigilante - Right now, the mafia is down one and could be potentially down two. This is the single most important phase in this game. A single townie has not died, the mafia have lost a member and this is why I am going to ask the daytime vigilante to think carefully and use his one shot power and eliminate one of these two members.
The consequences of getting this right are vast and this is the best time to use your ability. We can paralyse the mafia here and now without the death of a single townie. It will also mean that the method I used work and the lilkiehood of the second person being mafia is much higher.
Simply put, if you choose someone and he is mafia, and we lynch the second person and he is mafia we have essentially destroyed the mafia in a matter of two phases. Something unheard of. Think about it.
tldr: Xad and Piru are mafia. Daytime vigilante, kill one of them. We lynch the other,
Last edited by Imperium; March 23, 2011 at 01:39 PM. Reason: Automerged Doublepost