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Luffy is of course Post-Timeskip
Kuma is fully himself but he is going for the kill, if he sends Luffy "on vaction" it'll be to the bottom of the ocean
---Luffy fully remembers the Details of their last battle--- He's ready to prove himself
This match is hard to decide since Luffy and Kuma are around the same level. Ultimately stamina will be the deciding factor and there is still no proof that Luffy can endure long-term usage of the Gears without wearing himself out. Kuma, on the other hand, is agile and has great defenses. He only needs to wait Luffy out until the Gears take their toll on him. Then Kuma sends Luffy on a three-day trip into the ocean.
I think it´s really hard to decide since we haven´t seen Luffy´s full power at all. I´m sure he has way more tricks up his sleeve than what we´ve seen so far. Also, we haven´t really witnessed Kuma´s full power either.
here's how i see it...
Luffy and Kuma are capable of a 1HKO in this battle.... at the same time they also seem like the fighters who can go the distance...
It seems that if Luffy is able to dodge Kuma's initial assault then he will without a doubt crush him within his first couple of blows
For some reason, the recent Tobi vs. Minato battle in Naruto popped in my mind with the slow motion scene where Kuma (as Tobi) instantly reaches out to paw Luffy away and Luffy (as Minato) uses Gear 2nd soru to get behind/above Kuma to use a Jet Hammer leading to a similar ending as the last encounter with PX after the time skip.
I might be overestimating Luffy, but if Kuma still has his mind, Luffy should be able to read his next move with Color of Observation just like the priests did in Skypea meaning Kuma will not be able to grab Luffy at all unless Luffy does something stupid like picking his nose and not paying attention (which isn't actually out of character for him). At the same time, Kuma hasn't shown any ability in using Haki at all as far as I remember.
Kuma would win. He is capable of one-hit-koing everyone by just touching them. Luffy has got some range, but he is still a melee fighter. Melees can't beat Kuma. Not getting hit by him at least once is impossible, since he can teleport.
Kuma was probably the Revolutionaries strongest member (besides Dragon), as he was chosen for a mission extremely dangerous.
That's why turning him into a brainless weapon was necessary in order to give him a weakness, plot-wise.
Against brainless Kuma, Luffy could win. Depends on how fast his AI can react.
This is a though one. But I will go with Kuma at this moment. But I believe I will change my opinion if we see Luffy all serious.
So, going by the OP, Kuma doesn't start going after his nakama again, and he still is in the PX-0 prototype configuration. Then I'll go with Luffy this time. Kenbunshoku/CoO was enough to evade the production type PX-5s laser and Busoushoku/CoA enough to OKHO it...
PX-0/Kuma sure is stronger due to being concious and since he has that sort of DF ability. But I think Luffy might manage to punch his way through with Busoushoku/CoA.
power-wise they are most probably equal but what about kuma's teleportation tech ? if he sends luffy to the sea ,its curtains for him
Luffy can probably land hits on Kuma the way he is, but still he can't stop him from teleporting tho, which is a huge advantage, besides we haven't see anything at all about Kuma, he was basically toying the few times we saw him fight, so who knows how far he did developp his DF powers.
The question is whether or not Kuma is still able to deflect Luffy's CoA punches especially those enhanced through Gear 2 and 3. And here I'd even say that Luffy would break Kuma's paws.
and i dont think there is anything to speculate about your example with smoker . its completely possible but unlikely to happen
Now after a timeskip Luffy might have a chance, but still I would give 65% for Kuma's victory due to his broader experience and better DF usage. Also his DF is just broken. Hence Kuma is one of the worst oponents practically for anyone in this manga. And his body is damn tough.
I'm still with Kuma. His abilities are pretty much hax.