I've been trying to find a thread like this for a while, and your post made me create an account straightaway with a 24h+ waiting time for an activation email :P
Anyways I must say I agree with a lot of your points, from the extrapolation of facts/implications to logical development of ideas.
My input:
I will assume their year-month-day system greatly resembles that of the Earth. I can dive deeper into the reasoning behind this hypothesis but it won't be necessary, I very much doubt Yagi-sensei will, without any sort of hint to us, create a planet that has a day-length of 48 Earth-hours, 50 days per month, and 21 months per year lol.
My estimation for the size of Claymore Island is 50% less than yours (of course with a large uncertainty.) I have considered the same walking speed but I assume they only walk 15 hours per day maximum, since Raki is travelling with them. Also, as one of the Ghosts rightly says, travelling by boat can avoid all those mountainous paths. I assume that the landscape is very much pristine in the sense that forests and hills and mountains are all around, which will certainly hamper their travel speed; the average separation from town to town is a clue as to how 'livable' a squared unit of area is, and thus the general vicinity around them in terms of ease of travel. The impression I get is that most of the land is undeveloped.
I agree that the Claymore Island is somewhere close to either poles of the planet, although I cannot tell how far away they are from them. All I can say is, the North is cold enough to remain snowy throughout the year, and the rest of the land experience seasonal changes significant enough for them to develop the 'year-month-day' system.
Anyways, onto the next point. A war lasting 100 years immediately reminds me of the 100-year war between the English and French some 7 centuries ago. However, it is totally different in scale to the world of Claymore in that this was a war between just two nations, not counting troops limited to human only. I don't think further studying this will lead us anywhere helpful with our current topic, I only mention this as a subject of interest. But one point I want to raise is that, with soldiers capable of such large scale destruction, and assuming your point about extensive propaganda is true, I am really intrigued in how they seem to have enough resources to keep up the fight for 100 years. Now, if we look at the other point that you have raised, the one about having enough fighting potential to fend off the side with the overwhelming dragon-kin ally, I immediately think of two possibilities: Either they cannot completely control the DoD, and/or their DoD numbers are low enough for the other side to make a reasonably effective counter.
Unfortunately for the following point, I do not have the Japanese Raw at hand, so I cannot confirm the actual words used by Yagi-sensei. In the English scan, Miria mentions the other side having the dragon's kins as "comrades." However, upon looking at the Chinese scans, I find that they use a much more interesting phrase, "拉攏." This is a verb, which means along the lines of 'to manipulate somebody into your side (for advantageous gain.)' I cannot confirm the accuracy of either translations. If anyone can find access to the Japanese version to this excerpt (Scene 79) it will be extremely helpful. The Japanese Wikipedia page simply uses words like 'support' or 'assist,' but that could be far from the actual wording. Nevertheless, whatever wording is used cannot be fully trusted, as we know a lot of information Miria receives is from Rubel despite her having cross-examined her intel. Assuming he really is from the other side, he may choose to phrase it specifically to his advantage.
Now let's study the Asarakam. I am going to consider Rimuto's testimony immediately before his demise as trustworthy in building my idea. There are many points we can consider about the Asarakam (awakened and unawakened): biology, social structure and hierarchy (if any), population, power level in comparison to characters that we are familiar with, and many more.
Biology:
We know that they are hermaphrodites, which means they have both the male and female reproductive organs. This doesn't mean their reproduction behaviour is asexual (basically cloning itself when reproducing,) however, but just that they can reproduce with any one of their own. This greatly increases their survival chances as a whole species.
They do not grow old either, and this is actually reflected by the Claymores in their experiment. They both retain a 'youthful' appearance until they die. Awakening of Asarakam is described to be technically different from how Claymores awake, with the only mentioned similarity to be an irreversible transformation. There are a lot of different implications behind this statement. Something like, their awakening is not something that is uncontrollable, their awakening is not something that gives them pleasure like how the Claymores experience, their awakening does not induce hunger, their awakening could be something more like maturity for them etc.
Awakened Asarakam are shown in Scene 79 (four shadows), Scene 80 (three, together with a fourth unknown being that could be the Organisation's creation), and Scene 126 (just the head part is seen). Except for the last one, which I can't tell, they all have similar size and shape. From a biological point of view, I can only guess that the stage of evolution they are at now brings out the very best of them. In addition, this implies a predetermined social structure within their ranks, which we will discuss later on. We can relate this by looking at humans, for example, and other creatures such as tigers. Humans have a social structure which allows us to come in different size and shapes, whereas tigers look all the same. All tigers have the same features that enable their survival is top-notch, and only the outstandingly weaker ones are eliminated; this is evolution. Although there is a possibility that all the Asarakam we've seen until now are battle-types, the fact that they all look the same nonetheless implies great deal. Even human soldiers will have different build, hair colour, facial features despite all being (supposedly) macho enough for battle.
Social structure:
This section is totally ad lib from me, more or less. The structure is greatly dependent on their population, their mindset/behaviour, whether they group together, whether they have a leader figure if they do group, what they eat to keep themselves alive, where they live, whether they have villages or if they are one and only one nation as a whole. Most of these are undetermined, and even if you can guess one base on assuming something for another, there are so many possibilities that I can list but not worth listing, no matter how valuable the information could be, simply because I cannot say for certain anything at all. I think the important parameters which directly concern the war are population, hierarchy, and their relationship with the other human nations.
In terms of control, I guess there must be at least a substantial level of that as their awakening is irreversible, too. However, we do not know whether they can shape-shift like the Youma and Awakened Beings we're used to.
As you have rightly mentioned, we know that the other side does not want the Organisation to be able to produce controllable Awakened Beings, the outcome of which implies war potential that will cause a great deal of trouble to them. Most probably there are limited Asarakam on their side they could use for combat for whatever reason. Could be a population thing, could be an international relation thing.
Power level:
Originally I intend to develop this in detail with rich examples. In fact, this is the sole reason I've done so much research and thinking until now, it is in order to theorise the combat potential difference between characters that we are familiar with and the Asarakam tribe. However, a good estimate is that one ElaEla (Luciela&Rafaela destroyer) is more than enough to fend off any Asarakam (number unknown, need to know their war strategy) in its vicinity (effectively a verbal confirmation by the Men in Black when they saw ElaEla.) For any other (more accurate) comparisons, specifically involving Claymores and Awakened Beings, we need to consider a number of points, including the following:
The number of Claymores that can be made with 1 standard awakened Asarakam and 1 standard unawakened Asarakam (or even whether the samples they have in the underground are newly delivered or not, or whether they are there since the beginning or not suggests a lot);
The ease in capturing 1 of each (alive, considering they undergo rapid necrosis, this is notably difficult, especially with an Awakened);
Whether the Organisation is capable of controlling the power level of their creation;
The desired quality of an Awakened Being they wish to produce (suggested as a passing statement by Miria).
I can extrapolate my ideas from guesswork alone, such as discussing their war strategies and troop composition, both of which depend on the nature of battles (another guesswork base on assumptions), in order to estimate answers for the points above, but I think that will come another time. Something like, the fact that a large difference in the Organisation's fighting potential appears after the 7-year gap signifies quality products would require a substantial amount of resources, be it time, money, or talents. Any ideas pertaining to this is more than welcomed!
As an aside, I notice your point about bow and arrow, and I have thought about it before. But I think it is now resolved since we see its appearance in Scene 131, as used by the soldiers. I think this is a world where something similar to Alchemy is possible, whether in concept or in usage. Their biological technology must have been accelerated through wars, but I wouldn't say the same for other aspects of potential technology. Mechanical-related objects are in no way close to the level we have in our real 18th century. The making of Claymores is undetermined, so I wouldn't be able to comment on it to a useful degree.
Onto the last point that I want to talk about (for now): time scale. 100 years ago, there was a massive dispute, large enough to generate an all out war between two alliances of numerous nations. However, I cannot tell for certain whether they all know about Asarakam beforehand or not. Unless the war is waged on serious business like world domination or genocide (or even something 'smaller' like pride,) it is reasonable for one side to give up right away due to the overwhelming gap in their war potential. The truth about the pre-war situation will determine whether the Organisation was able to start their experiment immediately after the war broke out, or that they required time to prepare for the Claymore program. It is likely that they at least did not know everything about the Asarakam until they began fighting. In order to begin the Claymore program, they would need to have enough experience with Asarakam, (the following is ordered logically) specifically their original form, their ability to awake, the death of an Asarakam (to know about their high rate of necrosis), the strength and strategy required to capture them alive, the technology to keep them alive, the realisation that they need both the awakened and unawakened form to create something reliable, the realisation that their Youma creation can lead to Claymore-type creation, the realisation that awakened males can only serve better as kamikaze, the desire to create controllable Awakened Beings, and the influence required over Claymore Island. Notice that they created male Claymores on the island, but only lasted one generation before switching to a fully female program. Sending out Claymore-type troops into battle may only be around the male generation of Claymore has been established. At most, the male generation is the Organisation's last ditch effort to create controllable male Awakened Beings (this may hint at earlier attempts/experiments by the Organisation outside of the Claymore Island).
I would like to think that there has been at least 50 years in which Youma have a 'legit' status on the Island. It has been said that, older people who know the truth about Youma will die out, slowly but steadily turning their myths into facts. We need to consider the era in which the older generation lives will consist of young adults who have lived at least 20-30 years without coming across of Youma. The Organisation will need them to die out, too. Due to the fear factor, we can assume their kids will believe straightaway regardless of what their parents teach them. Depending on the average lifespan of a human on the Island, it will require around 30-50 years for total brainwash over the population. This suggests that, whatever the Organisation did, they took action on the Claymore Island at least 80 years beforehand. Which leaves us a 20-year gap for the fail scenes ((repeat of the above: to have enough experience with Asarakam, specifically their original form, their ability to awake, the death of an Asarakam (to know about their high rate of necrosis), the strength and strategy required to capture them alive, the technology to keep them alive, the realisation that they need both the awakened and unawakened form to create something reliable, the realisation that their Youma creation can lead to Claymore-type creation, the realisation that awakened males can only serve better as kamikaze, the desire to create controllable Awakened Beings.))
I generally have no problem with 1 regular year = 2 generations of Claymore estimate (I haven't seen the post you've mentioned; my figures are 150 generations in 80 years, which is about the same.) As a round up (and extra theory,) I'm just gonna rant about something slightly off topic. Let us consider the speech from the Organisation. They have specifically picked out 8 unawakened No.1s and claim that they're more or less all the outstanding ones they have mentioned. They also mention that the list goes on. Now, under what circumstances could you pick out 8 strong ones and say that to them? If I had 10 warriors, and I picked out 8, then I might as well list them all out. If I had 16 warriors, and I picked out 8, this does match the tone of voice Rimuto uses, but it might be a little less for "the list goes on." I would say, to pick out 8 outstanding warriors from the rest, the total has to be at least 3 times that number, which is 24 (8 out of 24 is 33%; there could be more No.1s.) Plus Isley, Riful, and Luciela, that makes 27. Also, a possible No.1 between Isley and Riful, since Riful isn't known as the 1st female No.1, but the youngest No.1. The gap must have been short, however, since Riful appears not to have grown significantly, noted by the difference between the scene when she meets Isley and her Awakened self that she got stuck with. I will round the total number to 30 for my estimation for now.
As an aside, the Black Card system must have developed after Riful's awakening, as two Abyssal Ones formed within such a short time, it would be reasonable as a suggestion. No known Abyssal One has formed until Luciela, who is a special case. We do not know the frequency of the type of events happened between Teresa and Rosemary, but we do know 'purging' is a practice typical enough to be performed on at least two No.1s (not counting Rosemary).
80 years for 30 No.1s, which comes to about 2.7 years per No.1, sounds about fair to me. Also, 150 generations for 30 No.1s, which comes to about 5 generations per No.1. I notice this abnormal gap between Teresa (77th) and Clare (150th). I don't exactly know how long has past during this time. We can consider Teresa received a number when Hysteria was No.1. There could be a gap after then but Rosemary was the next No.1 that we know of. And then Teresa. And then another possible gap. And then Alicia (by at most 150th Generation, maybe even earlier considering Orphelia was already No.4 during 127th Generation). Alicia is still No.1 after the 7-year timeskip but we can ignore this due to the abnormality of events.
Now, Teresa may have reigned as No.1 for a very long time (which is rare), but we do not know that for sure. The only hint to an answer lies in how the Organisation perceives her. She is only known to be one of the strongest 8 that has not awakened. Of course, Teresa hiding her real strength from the Men in Black also has something to do with this. In spite of this, there are only four known No.1s within 73 generations (from 77th to 150th which is about 30~40 years, compared to our estimate of 4 No.1s for an average of 20 generations ~10 years). As I've said, there could be more within that time, or that this is a special case with Teresa being so awesome (and the Organisation hogging Alicia).
May update this post in the future lol, or just post more. I notice I'm starting to rant. I planned to make this simple, but it turns out it isn't possible.
Theories about Mainland.
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