European Politics

[Onyx Darkmatter]

Not sure if this was posted, but this French Election Simpsons video kinda got me (My french is very rusty, so I could barely understand what they were talking about).

 

[Philia]

So in Netherlands Rutte's party won the election and Wilders doing badly then expected. After 93.5% votes counted Rutte won 33 seats Wilders got 20. CDA AND D66 tied at 19 and GreenLeft got 16 seats. Rutte's coalition partner Labor Party won just 9 seats.

 

[James Rye]

Seems like May gonna deny the Scots their 2nd Indyref. That sure going to help to keep the UK united.

 

[shionoro]

Really, it seems by now that the people will notice how populists fucked them up.
I sure hope people will notice.
The EU has to do their darndest to win trust back, now is the time.

--- Double Post Merged, Mar 22, 2017, Original Post Date: Mar 16, 2017 ---

The TV debate gave macron a huge boost.
He is ahead of le pen even in the first election round now (if narrowly) and in the latest polls, the projected number in the second round will be 65/35 in his favour against le pen.

--- Double Post Merged, Mar 22, 2017 ---

Interesting, i was fooled. Someone vandalized the wikipedia page from which i took the poll results.
So what i said is still correct, but with a slighter margin:

Macron has taken the lead from le pen in the latest 2 polls, but his head is between 60-65% to 35-40%.

Should not take poll results from wiki, but not speaking french <:

 

[Philia]

In UK May called for election in June. Good timing....Tories are gonna win easily.

 

[shionoro]

In UK May called for election in June. Good timing....Tories are gonna win easily.

We will see whether he plan is going to work out. She will probably get her way in some regard, however, there is still a risk that it can backfire in regards to the scottish exit votum (those forces might get stronger).

 

[Onyx Darkmatter]

So it looks like the French Election is coming up soon. Melenchon has gained some momentum; just imagine it being a Far-Right (Le Pen) vs Far-Left (Melenchon) in the second round.
Then again, either of them winning will change France w/ Le Pen wanting to withdraw from the EU and Melenchon from NATO.

--- Double Post Merged, Apr 21, 2017, Original Post Date: Apr 19, 2017 ---

Another unfortunate Terrorist Attack in France that resulted in the death of an officer, and 2 injuries.

 

[shionoro]

So it looks like the French Election is coming up soon. Melenchon has gained some momentum; just imagine it being a Far-Right (Le Pen) vs Far-Left (Melenchon) in the second round.
Then again, either of them winning will change France w/ Le Pen wanting to withdraw from the EU and Melenchon from NATO.

--- Double Post Merged, Apr 21, 2017, Original Post Date: Apr 19, 2017 ---

Another unfortunate Terrorist Attack in France that resulted in the death of an officer, and 2 injuries.

To me it seems to be, along with their economy, the most urgent problem of france to fight djihadism and subseequently islamism in their country.

Together with Belgium, they are probably the european country with the most issues about that.

 

[Onyx Darkmatter]

To me it seems to be, along with their economy, the most urgent problem of france to fight djihadism and subseequently islamism in their country.

Together with Belgium, they are probably the european country with the most issues about that.

It's unfortunate that those two nations have to deal with tragic events, but I do hope that they'll eventually overcome those monstrous extremists.


Tomorrow's the day we get to witness France's 1rst round in the Election. And truth to be told, I wouldn't be surprised if Le Pen actually wins (either the Absolute Majority or winning the spot for the 2nd round).

 

[shionoro]

It's unfortunate that those two nations have to deal with tragic events, but I do hope that they'll eventually overcome those monstrous extremists.


Tomorrow's the day we get to witness France's 1rst round in the Election. And truth to be told, I wouldn't be surprised if Le Pen actually wins (either the Absolute Majority or winning the spot for the 2nd round).

It is very likely that le pen and macron get to the second poll.
I would be surprised about anything else.
The other two candidates did their catching up, but they never took any lead.

And i am very glad about Macron's chances being really good, he is the candidate i wished for.

--- Double Post Merged, Apr 23, 2017, Original Post Date: Apr 23, 2017 ---

Looking good for Macron. It is forbidden to give out estimations until the vote ended in france, however, belgian pollsters estimate him winning by a substantcial margin over lepen and the rest, with le pen coming second.

--- Double Post Merged, Apr 23, 2017 ---

Bam. First official estimations:


Emmanuel Macron: 23,7 %
Marine Le Pen: 21,7%
François Fillon: 19,5 %
Jean-Luc Mélenchon: 19,5 %

 

[Onyx Darkmatter]

Wow. Fillon and Melenchon are neck-to-neck.

 

[shionoro]

Wow. Fillon and Melenchon are neck-to-neck.

I think Melenchon would probably have had a shot if Hamon had stepped out of the race.
But by now, it seems to be clear that it will be Macron vs Le Pen , as exspected.

And this quite surely will lead to president Macron. French polls tend to be accurate.
This time they were, too.

--- Double Post Merged, Apr 23, 2017, Original Post Date: Apr 23, 2017 ---

Macron's lead is getting bigger, he got this in the bag.

Emmanuel Macron: 24 %
Marine Le Pen: 21,8%
François Fillon: 19,9 %
Jean-Luc Mélenchon: 19,3%

--- Double Post Merged, Apr 23, 2017 ---

Both Hamon and important republicans already started backing Macron for the second round.

 

[kkck]

Shionoro, at this point I am pretty sure you are jinxing it....

 

[shionoro]

Shionoro, at this point I am pretty sure you are jinxing it....

If i could jinx such a thing i'd be a magic man.
This is not like the Us election in which the popular vote is irrelevant and both candidates are closer than 5% points at each other's throat.

Macron's lead on le pen for the second round is 20% points in a vote that solely depends on those.
And the other candidates (minus Melenchon) are embracing him, too.

We must not forget that Le Pen did WORSE than the polls in the first round and is on a downwards trend even tho there was a terror strike in france recently.

 

[Kato756]

From what I am reading, the french election will now depend on two factors (outside of more terrorist bombings)

The amount of votes in blank/non voters (similar to usa)
And if the far-left voters will compromise in voting for Macron

Is that pretty much ti?

 

[kkck]

If i could jinx such a thing i'd be a magic man.
This is not like the Us election in which the popular vote is irrelevant and both candidates are closer than 5% points at each other's throat.

Macron's lead on le pen for the second round is 20% points in a vote that solely depends on those.
And the other candidates (minus Melenchon) are embracing him, too.

We must not forget that Le Pen did WORSE than the polls in the first round and is on a downwards trend even tho there was a terror strike in france recently.

I was under the impression the election was a bit more uncertain than that. Unlike trump Le pen is not nearly as unpopular with young people and if anything young people are much more receptive to a franxit than people at the UK were. Other polling does not seem to suggest her standing is is too strong though. How much would a terrorist attack actually help le pen?

 

[Onyx Darkmatter]

So based on what I'm getting, there's a trend on twitter called "#SansMoiLe7Mai" (Without me the 7th May), which indicates that both of the candidates are unfavorable.
I've got an opinion from someone who said Macron is unfavorable because of his lack of foreign policy while Le Pen is unfavorable because of her Economic plan. So in a way, this is where things get a bit interesting to see where France will be heading...

 

[shionoro]

So based on what I'm getting, there's a trend on twitter called "#SansMoiLe7Mai" (Without me the 7th May), which indicates that both of the candidates are unfavorable.
I've got an opinion from someone who said Macron is unfavorable because of his lack of foreign policy while Le Pen is unfavorable because of her Economic plan. So in a way, this is where things get a bit interesting to see where France will be heading...

I do not think that this is a trend. Macron is a popular candidate. This is no trump vs Clinton Situation.
Macron is more comparable with Sanders.
French polls do ask for absent voters, and so far it looks like at least 75% of the people will vote in the second round, which is not a horrible turnout.

The thing is that Macron rendered himself as an outsider. He is less part of 'the system' than Le Pen is, even tho he quite obviously was part of the system in Hollande's reign
The only voter group that would tend to Le Pen over Macron are the far left socialists from Melenchon, and those are not enough to cost Macron the election. If those guys decide not to vote, Macron will be happy about it.

How much would a terrorist attack actually help le pen?

Not much. We saw a terror attack right before the first round, didnt we?
It was not a big one, but still it didnt help Le Pen.
She got + half a percent and lost it before the first round started.

 

[Onyx Darkmatter]

I do not think that this is a trend. Macron is a popular candidate. This is no trump vs Clinton Situation.
Macron is more comparable with Sanders.
French polls do ask for absent voters, and so far it looks like at least 75% of the people will vote in the second round, which is not a horrible turnout.

Just checked it on Twitter, and it's a popular trend (or was a day ago).

The issue that I see is that if people aren't willing to go out and vote for either of the candidates, then how would this affect the outcome (as in, will it make a difference for Le Pen or Macron)?

The thing is that Macron rendered himself as an outsider. He is less part of 'the system' than Le Pen is, even tho he quite obviously was part of the system in Hollande's reign
The only voter group that would tend to Le Pen over Macron are the far left socialists from Melenchon, and those are not enough to cost Macron the election. If those guys decide not to vote, Macron will be happy about it.

I don't think the issue about Macron is that he's an establishment or anything like that, but rather his foreign policy that's worrisome. To simply state that terrorism is something that people needs to live by doesn't make people, especially the victims, comfortable.
Of course, that isn't to say I prefer Le Pen over Macron. A deranged woman like her doesn't deserve one ounce of my support.

 

[shionoro]

I don't think the issue about Macron is that he's an establishment or anything like that, but rather his foreign policy that's worrisome. To simply state that terrorism is something that people needs to live by doesn't make people, especially the victims, comfortable.
Of course, that isn't to say I prefer Le Pen over Macron. A deranged woman like her doesn't deserve one ounce of my support.

But that is much less scary than Le Pen's constant talk about a Frexit that most French do not want.
People do like a more honest approach nowadays, and what macron said is one.
It is a fact that terror strikes won't stop any time soon in europe. We can fight them, but it is a long term thing to fight djihadism and islamism.
Macron admitting that is a thing that voters can accept while the constant 'this terror strike is so horrible and it must never happen again and they won't take our freedom' phrases seem hollow.