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Thread: War Between China and Japan?

  1. #16
    Registered User 有名人 / Yuumeijin / Celebrity weixiaobao's Avatar
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    Re: War Between China and Japan?

    Drmke- Let's say war started between Vietnam and China. It was brief like the third Indochina War. And maybe lasted 3 days, with like some ten thousands people killed. War scenario is usually not likely, but consider the amount of tension between these two countries for the past decades. How would that change the dynamic of China and Taiwan, China and Japan?

    If China and Japan is such a stand alone incident, then Kaiten is right. But China simultaneously building up tensions with all the countries surrounded it, and I think the South East China Sea border conflict is way more than the Senkaku. Would that not build up even more tension between China and Japan, and the likelihood of a conflict increase at least a few percentages?

    http://www.arirang.co.kr/News/News_V...Ne8&category=1
    http://nation.time.com/2012/09/30/bi...-but-what-for/

    The biggest deterrence to arm conflict for a while has been the presence of Americans in Asia.

    In my defense, I never thought about Japan going to war with China. Since the scenario is most likely an armed conflict in South East Asia would happen way way before that. However, I never took into the consideration of how much this Senkaku island had come into play recently. The USA had no interest over South East Asia, and most likely would never commit itself over there. It would be very unpopular if it did. But certainly that would change the dynamic of things.

  2. #17
    Registered User MH中毒 / MH Chuudoku / MH Addicted Imperium's Avatar
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    Re: War Between China and Japan?

    Quote Originally Posted by Kaiten View Post
    Protests can only happen in China if the party approves. There is little doubt the government is organizing the protests. I am not sure how much of a "wag the dog" issue this is. Censorship is pretty widespread, even much of the internet is blocked in China. I do not know how exposed most of China is to the Xilai scandal, or the change in leadership. That information is certainly completely suppressed in rural China. I'm not certain how much information is available in urban China, where they have a little more freedom than the countryside. Hong Kong is the only part of the country likely to be fully informed. My feeling is that the stand off with China is primarily big stick politics, intended as a display of power abroad, and to fan the flames of nationalism at home.
    The scandal was covered by the internal media. It naturally followed the party line but with the advent of social media and their netizens I would assume it has disseminated to the wider public more readily than it would have done so in the past.

    The Tokyo mayor is on manoeuvres again it seems.
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  3. #18
    MH Senpai 有名人 / Yuumeijin / Celebrity Drmke's Avatar
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    Re: War Between China and Japan?

    Instead of starting a new thread, I'll post this here:

    Majority of Chinese Expect a War with Japan

    The article talks about rising nationalist tensions in both countries as well as in many other Asia-Pacific countries. Thoughts?


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    MangaHelper 伝説メンバー / Densetsu / Legendary Member kkck's Avatar
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    Re: War Between China and Japan?

    To me it just does not seem reasonable... I mean, why? Even if there is a confrontation I doubt it would go beyond a short skirmish. Even in the absolute worst case scenario I don't think a conflict can last more than a month and even then it probably won't be that bad.... There is nothing for either side to win here and war is expensive. Unless I am missing something which could easily be the case.

  5. #20
    MH Senpai 有名人 / Yuumeijin / Celebrity Drmke's Avatar
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    Re: War Between China and Japan?

    If it was to happen, it would most likely be caused by the desire for economic dominance and blind nationalism. Wars are rarely started for reasons that seem sane from the outside.

    China fears the hegemonic power of the US and by extension Japan. Obama has been announcing for years he intends to do an "Asian pivot" economically. China, as the second largest economy in the world, is worried that this "pivot" means taking over its territory, which it most certainly does. A war would be disastrous for all parties involved specifically the US, Japan, and China and whatever poor countries get used as a battleground.

    It does, however, seem unlikely (granted everything usually does until it happens). But with the continual pushes in both Chinese and especially Japanese culture towards right-wing nationalism, it's far from a non-issue. The large number of Chinese and Japanese citizens that seem to expect a conflict of some sort is the worrying thing. It's easiest for a government to start a war if the people expect it.


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    MangaHelper 伝説メンバー / Densetsu / Legendary Member kkck's Avatar
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    Re: War Between China and Japan?

    Quote Originally Posted by Drmke View Post
    If it was to happen, it would most likely be caused by the desire for economic dominance and blind nationalism. Wars are rarely started for reasons that seem sane from the outside.

    China fears the hegemonic power of the US and by extension Japan. Obama has been announcing for years he intends to do an "Asian pivot" economically. China, as the second largest economy in the world, is worried that this "pivot" means taking over its territory, which it most certainly does. A war would be disastrous for all parties involved specifically the US, Japan, and China and whatever poor countries get used as a battleground.

    It does, however, seem unlikely (granted everything usually does until it happens). But with the continual pushes in both Chinese and especially Japanese culture towards right-wing nationalism, it's far from a non-issue. The large number of Chinese and Japanese citizens that seem to expect a conflict of some sort is the worrying thing. It's easiest for a government to start a war if the people expect it.
    Well, yeah, but with such vague objectives I doubt even china's worst blind nationalism could justify a war. Its not like they are fighting over oil or mines or something tangible, such a scenario suggest fighting someone because they are economically superior. And sure, a war would destroy the US economy however it would do so at the expense of their own. Isn't the US china's biggest trade partner? I am not sure of how the pivot could mean taking over territory. Maybe I am missing some information or context but doesn't that imply actually invading somewhere? China and the US are definitely not going to war, they are too deep into the whole " commerce" thing for such a thing to make sense. Even a war with Japan is extremely unlikely if it might hamper its economic interest elsewhere. China may have an authoritarian government and all but their economy is too capitalist to justify a war over something that does not yield actual, tangible returns. In china the whole extreme nationalism is not for the government but for the people.

  7. #22
    MH Senpai 有名人 / Yuumeijin / Celebrity Drmke's Avatar
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    Re: War Between China and Japan?

    What you say is true only under the assumption that all states will function as rational actors which they rarely do in real life. And the economic objectives of America and China are "vague" only in the sense that they don't come right out and say what they intend to do because there would always be major backlash from local populations. But when I say "taking over territory" I am referring to economic domination. That's how modern imperialism works. You force another country's economy to be so tied up with yours that they cannot safely risk resisting any demands you and your business interests make. It also helps to place military bases in said country which the US has done. The US maintains a fairly aggressive military presence in Asia. Not aggressive in the sense that it attacks but in the sense that every country in the East knows it is capable of it. These two factors are what would worry China or any other economy that wishes to remain as free as possible from America's influence.

    And the "too capitalist for war" argument does not hold up historically. Both World Wars were fought between Capitalist countries (Soviet exception). Capitalist economies must inherently expand to keep up profit increase. A century ago, there was really only one dominate capitalist force: the Us and Europe (excluding the capitalist tendencies of the USSR before and after Stalin). Now, there are two rival capitalist factions: the US, Europe, and NATO in one group and the BRICs countries in the other. China and the US enjoy a very lucrative partnership but one that has always been tense and only one bad incident from war. They are our biggest economic rival and will be for decades to come. I'm not sure what you think most wars are fought over, but I can confidently say that it is usually profit.

    Once again, war seems unlikely simply because their hasn't been one on this scale in a long time. If current tensions, history, and foreign meddling (US) are brought into the mix, it becomes far more difficult I believe to simply brush off the concerns (especially with the polls mentioned in the article). And if we throw in political and social unrest both countries are increasingly experiencing, the whole situation becomes even harder to predict. It's hard to believe that the US will simply sit by and watch as it loses it's unprecedented economic hegemony or that China would be content with second place.


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  8. #23
    MangaHelper 伝説メンバー / Densetsu / Legendary Member kkck's Avatar
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    Re: War Between China and Japan?

    Quote Originally Posted by Drmke View Post
    What you say is true only under the assumption that all states will function as rational actors which they rarely do in real life. And the economic objectives of America and China are "vague" only in the sense that they don't come right out and say what they intend to do because there would always be major backlash from local populations. But when I say "taking over territory" I am referring to economic domination. That's how modern imperialism works. You force another country's economy to be so tied up with yours that they cannot safely risk resisting any demands you and your business interests make. It also helps to place military bases in said country which the US has done. The US maintains a fairly aggressive military presence in Asia. Not aggressive in the sense that it attacks but in the sense that every country in the East knows it is capable of it. These two factors are what would worry China or any other economy that wishes to remain as free as possible from America's influence.

    And the "too capitalist for war" argument does not hold up historically. Both World Wars were fought between Capitalist countries (Soviet exception). Capitalist economies must inherently expand to keep up profit increase. A century ago, there was really only one dominate capitalist force: the Us and Europe (excluding the capitalist tendencies of the USSR before and after Stalin). Now, there are two rival capitalist factions: the US, Europe, and NATO in one group and the BRICs countries in the other. China and the US enjoy a very lucrative partnership but one that has always been tense and only one bad incident from war. They are our biggest economic rival and will be for decades to come. I'm not sure what you think most wars are fought over, but I can confidently say that it is usually profit.

    Once again, war seems unlikely simply because their hasn't been one on this scale in a long time. If current tensions, history, and foreign meddling (US) are brought into the mix, it becomes far more difficult I believe to simply brush off the concerns (especially with the polls mentioned in the article). And if we throw in political and social unrest both countries are increasingly experiencing, the whole situation becomes even harder to predict. It's hard to believe that the US will simply sit by and watch as it loses it's unprecedented economic hegemony or that China would be content with second place.
    Of course wars are fought over profit, that is precisely my point. There is no profit to be made in this hypothetical war for any of the involved parties. There is a reason there haven't been large scale wars in a long time, all major powers are trade partners. A war in response to the tensions over there won't actually solve their problems, if anything it would do the exact same opposite to the utmost extreme. Sure, people aren't always rational but this is something that all plausible parties know about. They can't not realize it. What you are suggesting is basically a huge tantrum over whose gdp and trade is larger. An actual war would imply that at least one side somehow rationalized (or irrationalized I guess) that going to war over the size of their economies or their influence is justifiable even though said war would almost certainly destroy their economies or influence. Just an announcement of this nature would simply break financial markets worldwide, within a few days of it both sides are probably going to be too poor to even be able to go to war. The US can't do without the stuff it buys and sells to china china can't do without the stuff is buys and sells to the US. It basically a fight over their penis size except that the end result invariably destroys all penises involved.

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