European Politics

[Philia]

Another attack in Turkey. This kind of things keep happening somewhere every week

 

[Onyx Darkmatter]

And the sad thing is that it has happened right after New Years eve. Quite an unfortunate turns of event.

 

[shionoro]

It doesn't necessarily mean that you have to imprison the said-suspect tho. It just means that you have a dangerous person in the country, so that they can take precautions and maybe even prepare for what *might* happen.

I don't expect that the services would perfectly spy on people, which is an impossible task to even ask for (unless the whole communities in the country keeps their ears and eyes out, which is one of the reasons why Moroccan Services have managed to foil over 300 Terrorist plots in 16 years; only 3 terrorist attacks has ever happened, and only 1 of them was a successful one, with one being an utter failure and the other one without claims from any organizations). But being warned twice about Amri with his history of being a violent person should be enough reasons to (at the very least) put him as a priority suspect of probable clause.

I get where you're coming from about the source being a bit biased, especially the Merkel part (whether he says is true or not, it's uncalled for). Maybe I should've done better in finding sources...

But we do now know exactly what did happen.

The culprit was deemed to be a small fry. He repeatedly offered services as a bomber, but he was not taken serious by his contacts. He was used as deliveryman and they kept tabs on him to imprison a bigger fish (which they did) and then wanted to deport him (which was scheduled).

There are thousands like Amri and his case was taken up and discussed several time by officials and he was still deemed not dangerous.

There are always mistakes made, but thing is: It is flat out wrong to claim that 'officials were warned' in a substancial way.
They had no warning about him having a concrete plan.
All evidence they got was that he repeatedly offered to do a terror attack but was denied and used to deliver things. His role seemed very clear, and it was not the one of an attacker.

What they had on him simply was not enough. The warnings they had meant nothing at all in the wake of the context. It meant they spied on him, and they did (succesfully so in case of another person he was in contact with).

Let me be more frank. The source is not a bit biased, the source is complete propaganda if i ever saw propaganda.
That has nothing to do with you personally, but it upsets me.
It tries to instill fear in people and stop trusting officials who work mostly competent because they misrepresent facts and context to create distrust.
The same story was used after 9/11, it was used in france and it is used now.
And that is not because agencys are so incompetent, but because someone actively wants to create that narrative.

--- Double Post Merged, Jan 1, 2017, Original Post Date: Jan 1, 2017 ---

That would improve Russia's economy

True, but not a big part of it. The sanctions are one problem for russia, but only because its economy is already as vulnerable as it is.
If Russia had a healthy economy, the sanctions would be a joke.

Same with USA and rest of the Europe


The world power is shifting from America and Europe towards Central & South Asia. China AND India is growing very fast economically. Their neighbors are growing fast too like Indonesia, Pakistan, Vietnam, Myanmar, Bangladesh. Not to mention India, Pakistan and China posses nukes already. They have a strong military as well.

That is not true actually. The EU'S and US'S econony are in a much more competative state.
There are problems, but those lie more in the distribution of wealth.
For example, greece has a very weak economy, yes, but if you look at the EU states of a whole, a lot of others make up for it.
The US is not in a bad state, too.
Both regions are quite able to get their share on a freemarket.
Let us not forget china has problems itself, even more so the other states you mention.

The Problems of russia is a very integral one: If the oil and gas runs out, they are screwed because there is basically nothing else left.
There is a huge load of logistical, infrastructural problems and the mainexport products of them are not really thrilling (not much hightech, only weapons if anything).

Noone outside of the ex gus states buys most of the russian products, and they only do it because they are cheap and added to subventions.

My point is, I expect Russia to do better than it has been doing since the 90's. If Putin can make Russia have a good relation with USA and EU, that would rejuvenate Russia's economy.

It really wouldnt. His problems have nothing to do with the west and putin wasnt able to tackle this problems since the decades he reigns russia.
Why would he be able to do it now that he is old, the oil price falls and he has worse relations with the west than before?

--- Double Post Merged, Jan 6, 2017 ---

Another Terrorstrike in Turkey, this time probably from the Pkk.
The situation of the whole country seems really dangerous right now.

While i think i have made my opinion of Erdogan really clear by now, I still wish himhonest luck in calming the situation down

 

[Onyx Darkmatter]

Agreed. As much as I think of him negatively, I can only hope that he knows what he's doing and resolves this issue as soon as he can.

 

[Drmke]

Erdogan has no intention of calming the situation down, so to speak. He has everything to gain from the fear of instability. The coup last year gave him the opportunity to crack down hard on what he calls the "Gulen" opposition, the destabilization of Syria dramatically increases Turkey's role as a dominate power in the region to its south, and the ISIS attacks (which the Turkish government actively helped until recently by providing weapons and passage through parts of Southern Turkey) allow him to further demonize the Kurds (specifically the PKK). All of this culminates into the rise of Erdogan's authoritarianism, which is, I would state, an active goal of his government.

 

[Philia]

France getting there as well http://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...h-election-poll-fran-ois-fillon-a7524056.html

It seems Le Pen will win.

 

[MArGi]

France getting there as well http://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...h-election-poll-fran-ois-fillon-a7524056.html

It seems Le Pen will win.

No, she is expected to win the first round but Fillon is still expected to win the second round. Not sure if that's good news either though...

 

[shionoro]

Something predictable is beginning: Fakenews are targetting Merkel now.

Now, this is not new, but the intensity is getting tougher.
Let's all care for reason and truth to prevail this time arround.

 

[Onyx Darkmatter]

I don't completely grasp the situation in Europe, particularly in France, but I can believe that Le Pen has a chance at winning. All I know about her is that she's a conservative who'll want France to withdraw from the European Union (which would be another blowout against the organization).
Whatever will happen in the first quarter of this century, guess we'll find out when the time comes.

 

[Drmke]

I don't completely grasp the situation in Europe, particularly in France, but I can believe that Le Pen has a chance at winning. All I know about her is that she's a conservative who'll want France to withdraw from the European Union (which would be another blowout against the organization).

I definitely believe Le Pen has a chance of winning; in fact, considering how conservative French society has been getting over the past few decades, I'm shocked a proto-fascist such as Le Pen hasn't gotten power already.

 

[shionoro]

I don't completely grasp the situation in Europe, particularly in France, but I can believe that Le Pen has a chance at winning. All I know about her is that she's a conservative who'll want France to withdraw from the European Union (which would be another blowout against the organization).
Whatever will happen in the first quarter of this century, guess we'll find out when the time comes.

This is not 'another blowout' if it happens.
The European union was foretold to be dead since decades, but if that happens, that actually means that it is over or at least cannot sustain in its current form.
We might see a regression to a western/northern european core union then together with some other states, but the european project would be over for the foreseeable future.
However, Le Pen is not going to win unless something drastic happens.
And before someone mentions it: No, she is nowhere near the numbers Trump got when people said he is not going to win.

In the current poll, in a duel against her most likely opponent in the final presidential election round, she has 36% of the votes against 64% of the votes.
To compare: They ruled trump out when he was trailing 5-10% behind., and here we talk abuot 30%.

Even if we assume she is doing an amazing election run and another terror strike happens in france, it is still VERY unlikely that she will win.
Exspecially because her opponent also stands for law and order. That reduces her to anti EU rhetoric and that is not enough to win presidency in france (even wilders got into trouble with that when thought anti EU rhetoric alone in the greece crisis would give him gains).

 

[Onyx Darkmatter]

I definitely believe Le Pen has a chance of winning; in fact, considering how conservative French society has been getting over the past few decades, I'm shocked a proto-fascist such as Le Pen hasn't gotten power already.

The growing of conservatism in France doesn't really surprise me, especially with tragedies and crisis going on in the recent years.

This is not 'another blowout' if it happens.
The European union was foretold to be dead since decades, but if that happens, that actually means that it is over or at least cannot sustain in its current form.
We might see a regression to a western/northern european core union then together with some other states, but the european project would be over for the foreseeable future.
However, Le Pen is not going to win unless something drastic happens.
And before someone mentions it: No, she is nowhere near the numbers Trump got when people said he is not going to win.

In the current poll, in a duel against her most likely opponent in the final presidential election round, she has 36% of the votes against 64% of the votes.
To compare: They ruled trump out when he was trailing 5-10% behind., and here we talk abuot 30%.

Even if we assume she is doing an amazing election run and another terror strike happens in france, it is still VERY unlikely that she will win.
Exspecially because her opponent also stands for law and order. That reduces her to anti EU rhetoric and that is not enough to win presidency in france (even wilders got into trouble with that when thought anti EU rhetoric alone in the greece crisis would give him gains).

Either way, France leaving would most likely put the final nail in the coffin for the EU. I agree that it would be over or won't sustain its current state.

I didn't say Le Pen will win. I only said that she has a good chance at winning. The only reason why the Polls related to Trump were wrong was because of the misinformation about people's choice (I can say "Hillary is more likable than Trump, so I'm voting for her" and vote for Trump, because of the potential backlash). I don't think this situation would really happen in France.
But it sounds plausible that Le Pen may not win the election, assuming the polls hold true to their word.

 

[shionoro]

The growing of conservatism in France doesn't really surprise me, especially with tragedies and crisis going on in the recent years.



Either way, France leaving would most likely put the final nail in the coffin for the EU. I agree that it would be over or won't sustain its current state.

I didn't say Le Pen will win. I only said that she has a good chance at winning. The only reason why the Polls related to Trump were wrong was because of the misinformation about people's choice (I can say "Hillary is more likable than Trump, so I'm voting for her" and vote for Trump, because of the potential backlash). I don't think this situation would really happen in France.
But it sounds plausible that Le Pen may not win the election, assuming the polls hold true to their word.

I don't think she has a good, nor even a bad chance at winning.
I really don't think misinformation had much to do with it. The polls about the popular vote were rather accurate, but netting the popular won't didn't net her presidency.
In france it does, and in th epopular vote, le pen is trailing behind 30% points.
Usually polls like these (of events happening often with less moving parts than the US election) are accurate in the realms of +/- 2-3% points, so this would, unlike brexit or trump, be an actual event that can only happen if the polls are basically depicting the complete opposite of reality, and we have never seen that in any big european election

 

[Philia]

French primaries are going on.

Socialist Party nomination has come down to Benoit Hamon and Valls.

I guess it's time I tag some of our French members here.....
@Anera @Demonspeed @GodDarkness @MArGi @Erinyes

--- Double Post Merged, Jan 23, 2017, Original Post Date: Jan 23, 2017 ---

Oh and Macron seems to be doing well as well. It's gonna be interesting.

 

[MArGi]

Valls' public image is not that good and Arnaud Montebourg, who arrived third, has already given his support to Hamon, which logically means the latter has a higher chance of winning these primaries.
But I don't think it really matters in the end as I doubt we'll have a socialist President this term.

But who knows? I was sure the Brexit would not happen and that Clinton would be President so my predictions aren't that good after all... ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 

[Anera]

I guess it's time I tag some of our French members here.....

Why did you do that ?

But who knows? I was sure the Brexit would not happen and that Clinton would be President so my predictions aren't that good after all... ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Oh, don't worry, I don't think you're wrong on that one, probably the only thing we're sure about. No socialist president, guys, that's all you have to know as for now.

 

[shionoro]

By now it has become less likely that Fillon wins and also slightly less likely that Merkel wins since she, unexspectedly, is not up against Gabriel but against Schulz, who is liked in germany and at least is a new face.

However, really, i still do not see Merkel losing. Schulz would need an absolutely amazing run to pull that off, by now, the only realistic governing option with the greens is at roughly 35% of the necessary 45-50% to reign.
That is the value that the CDU alone EXCEEDS while also still having options besides the SPD (with potentially the liberals or even Grüne).
Unless both SPD and Grüne are miracoulusly good in their runs, it will not happen, and Grüne is, at the moment, speculating about a coalition with Merkel's CDU anyway.

 

[Philia]

Well we can discuss that in the EU threat, but just briefly: Le Pen is not going to win.
Everything points to a win of Macron, who is very pro EU.
France won't leave the EU in the next term of the french president.

Italy leaving is a long shot, but it is not impossible. That would ACTUALLY be devastating, but once again: As long as France and Germany are in the European nation, it wont break apart.
If countries from the south leave that, paradoxically, could even leave the EU as being more stable than before because the Euro would be more stable than before.
Also, I wanna see britain leaving first.

Nah, Le Pen is still leading the poll. She is a certain to make the 2nd round. Others, like Macron, Fillon and Hamon will have to battle for the second place.
And in final round, Mademoiselle Le Pen will crush her opponent

That being said, current UK govt probably don't have the balls to leave EU. Brexit bill passed in parliament but the haven't been taking initiatives to leave the EU. They are simply delaying it.

 

[shionoro]

Nah, Le Pen is still leading the poll. She is a certain to make the 2nd round. Others, like Macron, Fillon and Hamon will have to battle for the second place.
And in final round, Mademoiselle Le Pen will crush her opponent

That being said, current UK govt probably don't have the balls to leave EU. Brexit bill passed in parliament but the haven't been taking initiatives to leave the EU. They are simply delaying it.

Why would you think that she would win the final round? There is no real basis for that claim, because Macron has her outmatches by a comfortable 30% lead in polls.
Lately, Le Pen plummeted from 28% to 24% in polls, too in the first round. It is not like she is gaining momentum.
Even Fillon, even after his latest scandal, would still be exspected to beat her.

In all likelyhood, we are going to see Macron as pro EU president of France.
We also shouldn't forget that it is not like FN never had its downfalls and heights under le pen's father.

Le pen's father also did manage to get to the second round one time and got his 17% in an environment in which the EU was still in a better shape.
It still didn't save the party from plummeting down in the next elections.

 

[Philia]

Why would you think that she would win the final round? There is no real basis for that claim, because Macron has her outmatches by a comfortable 30% lead in polls.

You still believe in polls?

In all likelyhood, we are going to see Macron as pro EU president of France.

You said same about Fillon weeks ago
I still think Fillon and Le Pen will make it to the final round and Le Pen will beat Fillon(taking advantage of his scandals)