Games Mafia Game 49 - Pokémon: New Adventure - END GAME

[GrySun]

I am kinda busy right now, I preferred to read everything at home to understand the rules perfectly. I can use my move if you want but there's no risk?

Ask if something is confusing you, although it's a rather simple system.

 

[digitaldude]

No it shouldn't lol

I can't hit with 10% shots.

 

[GrySun]

I can't hit with 10% shots.

Erin did. I'd say statistically it's much better to have 4 attempts of 10% than 1 attempt of 40%. For other interesting statistics: During the first battle round, 1 of each pokemon type managed to hit and get a badge. So it seems balanced at first, although not everyone used all their PP yet.

 

[digitaldude]

You are assuming this thing isn't completely rigged by hardy. HAHAHA

 

[GrySun]

@Farfalla: If and when a group reaches the elite 4 event, how do they decide who to kill? Who has the final say in it? The person who got the 8th badge?
Oh and who are the victims of lynching, the trainers or their pokemon?

 

[digitaldude]

@Farfalla: If and when a group reaches the elite 4 event, how do they decide who to kill? Who has the final say in it? The person who got the 8th badge?
Oh and who are the victims of lynching, the trainers or their pokemon?

No we take them and release their pokemon.

 

[Riku]

Hmm, maybe I'll be the player secretary this game;

Rolelist/hints:
1- GrySun & Absol
2- gnut & Meowth (first time having the role)
3- Zasz & Flygon
4- TSPanda & Bulbasaur
5- Holt & Tyranitar
6- Demonspeed & Salamence
7- Erinyes & Pikachu
8- Ustegius & Dragonite
9- g01 & Cyndaquil
10- Xadyu & Togepi
11- Philia & Houndoom
12- Mazino & Squirtle
13- Tatasugoi & Mudkip
14- Lovemagi & Totodile
15- digitaldude & Torchic (not a night role)

 

[GrySun]

!votekill g01

Well I did warn you back in game 47. I'm still mad about the last 2 games, all the cheating and the memeing, you also have 100% mafia rate.. Just a placeholder for now tho, I may change it later.

--- Double Post Merged, Apr 21, 2016, Original Post Date: Apr 21, 2016 ---

It hurts voting to get rid of Cyndaquil tho

--- Double Post Merged, Apr 21, 2016 ---

What about you?

Whoops almost forgot to answer this part. I'm a townie again of course, guess I'll never get to experience the mafia side of things.

 

[Copy Panda]

Oh so you're not a "useless" role like last time? Alright, this time your answer feels much better than last time. Although maybe you just stepped it up? For now I'll trust you.

To be fair, my strategy last time would have been decent if not for a certain other member on my team

I can't hit with 10% shots.

Consider that spreading your hits doesn't do anything for you. Even if you land all your hits, one vote/player hit is nigh inconsequential. One the other hand, landing all attacks on one person...~

@Farfalla: If and when a group reaches the elite 4 event, how do they decide who to kill? Who has the final say in it? The person who got the 8th badge?
Oh and who are the victims of lynching, the trainers or their pokemon?

Trainer and pokemon are the same, I'd say

You are assuming this thing isn't completely rigged by hardy. HAHAHA

Then your issue with the hit rates won't matter either way

 

[GrySun]

You are assuming this thing isn't completely rigged by hardy. HAHAHA

In that case, thank you based hardy

To be fair, my strategy last time would have been decent if not for a certain other member on my team

Aye, uh the memories are coming back..

 

[Farfalla]

@Farfalla: If and when a group reaches the elite 4 event, how do they decide who to kill? Who has the final say in it? The person who got the 8th badge?
Oh and who are the victims of lynching, the trainers or their pokemon?

It's the same as it would be for a mafia team: you guys get to talk at night to decide on a target. If you guys fail to come to a decision for a target, you just miss the chance^^'
About the second question, pokemon along with trainers. System-wise, the player 'dies'. Roleplay-wise, after having his pokémon knocked out, a skinny model like police officer with weird anime hair shows up and takes the mofo out: to jail or back to his mommy.

 

[GrySun]

Alright let's talk serious. This game is going to be highly confusing, probably for both town and mafia. Everyone wants to get 8 badges for that swag kill action, which is why this will turn into a 5v5v5. The more players a team loses the lower their chances to get the badges before the other teams do, which is why everyone from a group is likely not to vote for their team members unless there's solid reason to assume the player is mafia. As we've seen with Holt already, he changed his vote because they're in the same team. This puts both us and the mafia in a strange situation. We townies will be voting for people of another team, while the mafia could either allow the luckiest team to reach 8 badges for the 1-2 mafia members of that team to influence the decision and a free townie kill or they'll try to prevent teams reaching 8 badges alltogether.
With 15 players we're probably at 4 mafias. It's the most likely that there's at least 1 mafia in each team, although there's even a chance of 3 or even 4 mafias being in the same team which could turn ugly since we're already all feeling like we're all "buddies" in the same team.

So overall, let's not forget that our main goal is finding and lynching mafia members.

 

[Riku]

I did the math here, since there has been a lot of speculation on this. It's been a while since my probability math classes, so correct me if I'm wrong:

Basic Pokemon: Chance to not hit at all with all 4 attempts = 0.9*0,9*0,9*0,9 = ~0,66 This means that the chanche to hit even once is 1-0,66=0,33, so chance to succesfully hit even once is 33%
Non-evo: 0,8*0,8=0,64, 1-0,64=0,36, so 36%
Full-evo: 40%

So full-evo is the best probability-wise. But they are rather close by each other. And basics have the chance to get multiple extra votes. So with a bit more risk comes a chance of bit more power. With less risk comes a bit more steady results, but not as much power. So I'd say it's matter or preference in style. I personally take that one 40% shot over that 33%

 

[Demonspeed]

To think I doubted of Ust's taste when he has my favorite Pokemon in this game.

Ask if something is confusing you, although it's a rather simple system.

Explain me everything then, partner.

 

[Mazino]

well since im out tonight i ll tell sth about me ...night role had it before
also id like to attack with bubbles
target 2x Absol
target 2x Totodile

--- Double Post Merged, Apr 21, 2016, Original Post Date: Apr 21, 2016 ---

Also to not get a penalty... Votekill Salamence/Demonspeed

 

[GrySun]

I did the math here, since there has been a lot of speculation on this. It's been a while since my probability math classes, so correct me if I'm wrong:

Basic Pokemon: Chance to not hit at all with all 4 attempts = 0.9*0,9*0,9*0,9 = ~0,66 This means that the chanche to hit even once is 1-0,66=0,33, so chance to succesfully hit even once is 33%
Non-evo: 0,8*0,8=0,64, 1-0,64=0,36, so 36%
Full-evo: 40%

So full-evo is the best probability-wise. But they are rather close by each other. And basics have the chance to get multiple extra votes. So with a bit more risk comes a chance of bit more power. With less risk comes a bit more steady results, but not as much power. So I'd say it's matter or preference in style. I personally take that one 40% shot over that 33%

Pretty much accurate. Although consider, you only have the chance of not hitting your target. In the other 33%, you hit between 1-4 times. With my Absol i have 36% chance to hit 1-2 times, and the fully evolved pokemon have a 40% chance to hit, but can only hit once at best. Looking at it this way, the lower one seems the best since the difference in percentages aren't that big, but the difference between hitting once and two times is rather large.

--- Double Post Merged, Apr 21, 2016, Original Post Date: Apr 21, 2016 ---

@Mazino I think the hosts never said that we can "pre-set" our attempts during the 2x1 hour of the event, so it's best you ask Farfs or Hardy if that's a possibility. I remember with the Harry Potter game you had to be present to fight in those duels.

 

[Riku]

1- GrySun & Absol
2- gnut & Meowth (first time having the role)
3- Zasz & Flygon
4- TSPanda & Bulbasaur ("Not so useless this time")
5- Holt & Tyranitar
6- Demonspeed & Salamence
7- Erinyes & Pikachu
8- Ustegius & Dragonite
9- g01 & Cyndaquil
10- Xadyu & Togepi
11- Philia & Houndoom
12- Mazino & Squirtle (night role, has had before)
13- Tatasugoi & Mudkip
14- Lovemagi & Totodile
15- digitaldude & Torchic (not a night role)

 

[Demonspeed]

well since im out tonight i ll tell sth about me ...night role had it before
also id like to attack with bubbles
target 2x Absol
target 2x Totodile

--- Double Post Merged, Apr 21, 2016, Original Post Date: Apr 21, 2016 ---

Also to not get a penalty... Votekill Salamence/Demonspeed

Is it because of the previous game?

 

[Mazino]

I think the hosts never said that we can "pre-set" our attempts during the 2x1 hour of the event, so it's best you ask Farfs or Hardy if that's a possibility. I remember with the Harry Potter game you had to be present to fight in those duels.

yeah im sry about that, wasnt supposed to busy today, but it happened so its the only possibility for me but thx for the info i ll ask

@Farfalla is this possible? to pre-set my attacks ?

--- Double Post Merged, Apr 21, 2016, Original Post Date: Apr 21, 2016 ---

Is it because of the previous game?

nah man,its just a random vote.. im not rlly resentful ...what happened in the previous game you lynched me ?

 

[Riku]

Pretty much accurate. Although consider, you only have the chance of not hitting your target. In the other 33%, you hit between 1-4 times. With my Absol i have 36% chance to hit 1-2 times, and the fully evolved pokemon have a 40% chance to hit, but can only hit once at best. Looking at it this way, the lower one seems the best since the difference in percentages aren't that big, but the difference between hitting once and two times is rather large.
.

Yeah, I know that. As I wrote, it's matter of preference. Bit more stability over bit more power. My few point is, that even if odds are what I counted them to be, essentially it's still always one 10% flip at a time, which is a very low probability. While 40% just once is pretty solid.