Mag Talk Weekly Shonen Jump [2019] - Discussion and TOC Talk

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Thundercat27

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That is a huge issue with OP and also the reason for its slow decline.
People wont start reading a 900 chapter manga from scratch, its very hard to get into OP nowadays due to sheer size so naturally the only way to go is down.
Hence why I do believe in the claims that OP will end in around 5 years, Jump just needs to find a replacement at this stage.
I think OP faced the same issue with famous TV shows that keep go on and on, sooner or later the audiances grow fatigue and just wait till its ending to know the conclusion. Thus, the "ending in 5 years" is unreliable as heck and just another marketing trick to boost the sales and attract ex-readers. Or maybe they learn from KnY, that having a foreseeable ending will make it sells like hot cake.

Are you sure about that? Early volumes of one piece still rank decently on AMZN jp (kindle).
I wonder how many of them stick around after 20 volumes, or even just 10 volumes.
 

Newkerzy

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I think OP faced the same issue with famous TV shows that keep go on and on, sooner or later the audiances grow fatigue and just wait till its ending to know the conclusion. Thus, the "ending in 5 years" is unreliable as heck and just another marketing trick to boost the sales and attract ex-readers. Or maybe they learn from KnY, that having a foreseeable ending will make it sells like hot cake.



I wonder how many of them stick around after 20 volumes, or even just 10 volumes.
Except 5 years is way too much of a stretch. If they really wanted to go the way of KnY, I'd have said 3 years. Even then, that claim in 5 years' time was before Kimetsu blew up.
 

Thundercat27

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Except 5 years is way too much of a stretch. If they really wanted to go the way of KnY, I'd have said 3 years. Even then, that claim in 5 years' time was before Kimetsu blew up.
That is why I used "maybe". Also three years is just unreasonable. If someone tells me One Piece going to end in three years, I will answer with this
 

101nemesis

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That is a huge issue with OP and also the reason for its slow decline.
People wont start reading a 900 chapter manga from scratch, its very hard to get into OP nowadays due to sheer size so naturally the only way to go is down.
Hence why I do believe in the claims that OP will end in around 5 years, Jump just needs to find a replacement at this stage.
It's not impossible at all.
OP got it's biggest boost 500 chapters in. Kingdom got its biggest boost 400 chapters in and still experiences boosts 500-600 chapters in. Hype around something will get people to try it out or give it another chance.
 

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Double Taisei had the most appropriate ending.

Never did escape from the issues I had with the premise, was like how would this end to solve the issue that a being like Taisei has without it going supernatural and fantasy.
 

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So, it's possible that in 2014, SNK sold more than OP, given that the difference was very small, and sales can vary by 3M with oricon numbers.
 

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I know Oricon numbers are estimation but I find it hard to believe they could make an error as big as 2 million and now even Japanese articles are reporting OP as the top selling manga before the Oricon lists are even out. This is weird as hell.
 

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Well, that took a while
quotes to not be wall of text


Finally not sneaking writing during work hours on a phone,

Now I have the time to do a proper write up.


I always said that publishers words are above trackers, and I stand by that. but I do want to add that sell through are almost exclusively known only by the publishers.

There is no need for claiming for which is the more correct source as in "we can only believe this" I say that is a flawed way of thinking because choosing what we want to hear is literally confirmation bias. I also want to say having third party sources (oricon, shoseki, and to a lesser extent; amazon, rakuten, honto, ebj apple, etc.) is a good thing. as long as they are consistent with their methodology, while discrepancy are inevitable, having choices is better than none.


having said all that, instead of debunking the article or giving a convoluted reason why it is correct, I think it is better to lay out all the scenarios for a better discussion. this will be slightly more detailed than before and cover most of the things I can think of.


1. The article itself

First thing first. the article clearly stated the range for the number given (19/11/2018 - 17/11/2019), while the exact time of the interview are unknown, we can make an educated guess that it is must be the earliest just before or just after OP #94 was out, (or when the initial printing was confirmed) and the latest until a few days ago.


Given that OP #95 and the new landmark was not even hinted nor the KnY latest series number of 20M (which is better than saying 10M) was not mentioned, we can guesstimate it was slightly earlier and hopefully the interviewer reach out to Takano (which I mistakenly said to be Naito before) to have an updated number (which considering OP hadn't had a major reprint since, the total for OP would stayed the same). this is just a guess but at least we have a range.

The range given in the interview is also a talking point it should be the same as the oricon range which would be interesting to compare once oricon releases their numbers (in a few days)
2. Circulation or Sales?

This is the major takeaway of the article and is mostly what fuels the opinions, debates, the hot takes we've seen going wild on the web. Some of the argument actually beyond just circulation or sales as some individuals have injected digitals into the mix, which adds a whole other layer into this.

Since I'm not trying to say what the numbers actually meant to be, I will instead give out how the numbers can come to be in each possible scenario.

a. Circulations

Circulations are usually the most common milestones given by a publisher on how a certain series is doing, I'm using the term circulation since it is a more general term that can be used for some numbers that have a bit of ambiguity. While most people like to say "<x series> is in <y amount> in Print" a publisher can give out numbers that may include digital, and/or including worldwide number, some series that have spin-off and/or ancillary books (light novels, fanbook, character book, guidebook, etc) are sometimes presented with a series total as in including the whole franchise.
i. One Piece Physical only

This is actually pretty straight forward since even in the interview it is stated that OP had never gone below 3M initial print since 2010, and we know that One Piece released 4 volumes in the range stated above. so 3M+ * 4 = 12M+ copies + reprints of backlogs, 12.7M is certainly a possible number and this is the simplest explanation for this number.

ii. One Piece Physical + Digital

While this isn't much of a leap from point 2.a.i , this would imply that OP made less than 700k (likely quite a percentage difference( in digital in that range, while it is not unthinkable given what we recently learned about digital a month ago and the fact that OP digital volume are delayed by 1 month from the physical volume. The number is definitely a possibility, but 1 thing to note here, as far as i know, OP never gave circulation number including digital, so this is probably unlikely
iii. Kimetsu Physical

Kimetsu situation is a bit more complicated to try to pinpoint due to many reprints happening recently (to a point that I would say a non direct-editor might be unaware of how much exactly, just throwing it out there) so a finer split is required to cover all bases, in this case I shall use the 14M & 16M as possible year end point since the 2 have the highest possibility in the range specified above.

getting this out of the way first

how many volumes is irrelevant, assuming all including digital for simplicity, yes 20M is comics, I've checked

Code:
2017/05/08   Comics  1 Million

2017/08/03   Comics 1.5 Million

2017/12/04   Comics   2 Million

2018/06/04   Comics  2.5 Million

2018/11/26   Comics   3 Million

2019/02/28   Series  3.5 Million

2019/03/11   Series  4.5 Million

2019/04/06   Series  5 Million

2019/05/01   Series  6 Million

2019/06/03   Series  7 Million

2019/07/19   Series  8 Million

2019/09/02   Series  10 Million

2019/09/29   Series  12 Million

2019/10/17   Series  14 Million

2019/10/23   Series  16 Million

2019/11/21   Comics  20 Million

iii.01. Kimetsu Physical only (14M)

A
ssuming 14M was the last number before the cut-off point and physical only, this might be the simplest to explain (but not with a few caveats), using 3M from 2018 as the starting number for the range, 14M - 3M = 11M which is not far off from the 10.8M given in the article. But as some of you might have noticed, 14M was for series, and at that time, it should have included the light novels and the fanbook in that number. While the sales for those are not as significant as the main series volumes, that would leave no room to include them which means this should not be the case

iii.02. Kimetsu Physical only (16M)

If we instead used 16M as the cut-off number, this would give us the most likely explanation,(but also with some caveats and need some extra clarifications) the initial calculations stayed the same 16M - 3M = 13M which then if we factor in the series, ( I would give them ~ 1M total, 200k-300k for each Light novel, and 400k-500k for the fanbook) which we would end up with 12M, while this seemed like it would still be too far from the given value of 10.8M, unlike the 14M from above we have some wiggle room. Let me explain,

As mentioned in the spoiler tag, the 16M was announced in 23 Oct. which given how these things often works, are usually 1 or 2 weeks before the prints actually arrived. And if we take a look at the most recent reprint schedules for kimetsu (JP since can’t be bothered)


2019/10/23   鬼滅の刃 第17巻 重版   (全量配本重版)

2019/10/30   鬼滅の刃 第1~5巻 全巻重版   (全量配本重版)

2019/10/31   『鬼滅の刃 公式ファンブック 鬼殺隊見聞録』重版   (全量配本重版)

2019/10/31   鬼滅の刃 第6~16巻 全巻重版   (全量配本重版)

2019/11/11   鬼滅の刃 第17巻 重版   (全量配本重版)

2019/11/13   『鬼滅の刃 公式ファンブック 鬼殺隊見聞録』重版   (全量配本重版)

2019/11/18   鬼滅の刃 第1~6巻 全巻重版   (全量配本重版)

2019/11/19   鬼滅の刃 第7~9巻 全巻重版   (全量配本重版)

2019/11/20   鬼滅の刃 第10~16巻 全巻重版   (全量配本重版)

2019/11/28   『鬼滅の刃 公式ファンブック 鬼殺隊見聞録』重版   (全量配本重版)

2019/12/10   鬼滅の刃 第1~3巻 全巻重版   (全量配本重版)

2019/12/11   鬼滅の刃 第13~17巻 全巻重版   (全量配本重版)

2019/12/12   鬼滅の刃 第4~12巻 全巻重版   (全量配本重版)



Since Kimetsu have had so many reprints in a relatively short amount of time, the 16M reported could have included numbers from after the cut-off point but not including after Volume 18 (which should be 20M) so in theory, the actual print for kimetsu at cut-off would have been between 14M - 16M which would give more than enough space for the 10.8M figure to make sense and solve the dilemma we are in at the moment. And why I personally think this is the most likely explanation.
iv.01 Kimetsu Physical + digital (14M)

I’ve included this because of symmetry, but as some of you might have guessed. This would give even less room for error and in return is less likely than the just physical counterpart, especially with the short shortage in theory might result in some fans having to buy digital to obtained their copies

iv.02 Kimetsu Physical + digital (16M)

This is a very similar situation to 2.a.iii.02 only difference being you can just basically take digital sales and just have 16M as the cutoff date, or a compromise between actual number at cutoff and how many digital. This is the most vague of the 4 options, but it is definitely possible.
b. Sales

2nd major part of this response and what most people i’ve seen took as their major takeaway from the article was that it was talking about series sales within that range. While I personally don’t agree with this since publishers usually only ever give circulation numbers, I can see where people are coming from given the wording chosen by Takano, and some of the words used in that context can actually imply sales. So I will try my best from my limited knowledge to try and make the numbers possible.


The main issue to tackle here is the discrepancy between the numbers from the article and what we know from Oricon, a third party tracker, trying to not get into too much detail, Oricon tracks (among many other things) manga volume sales for bookstores in Japan, the system used is Point of Sale (POS) system and an important thing to note is that Oricon does not track all stores notably convenience stores & amazon, and that oricon does not cover digital sales for manga. I’ll be referring to Oricon a lot in this section as they are a constant and consistent provider for numbers thus making a point of reference easier.


i. One Piece Physical only

The known oricon total for One Piece at the moment is at 9.95M ( with a few week missing) with my own estimate for the yearly series total being at 10.2M ~ 10.3M. The number given from the interview was 12.7M giving us a difference of 12.7M - 10.3M = ~2.4M which is a pretty significant number. Reminder that we are assuming this is sales figures from the publisher (sell through) so here are a few ways to bridge the gap.



As I’ve said above, Oricon does not track every store, hence we could use that fact to say that One Piece sales is understated (which is actually true, and by an absolute sense can have an effect, but relative should not be too much different from other series, but I’m going off on a tangent now).


Even if we said that 2.4M difference is due to how the volumes are distributed, this is in my opinion a stretch, but One Piece have to do that amount on amazon and other locations not tracked by oricon, while not impossible since we never had any data, the fact that we never had any major reprint order for One Piece meant that we never really close to hitting the initial print numbers,




One Piece most recent Oricon sales data for the first month for reference




ii. One Piece Physical + Digital

Now we have reached the point where people have used that their talking point the most (while ignoring an obvious flaw in that statement, but we get to that once we got to Kimetsu)


Some people had claimed that Digital sales is the reason why One Piece is still on top for 2019 (again major flaw in logic there) and the reason why 12.7M is the actual value for One Piece this year. While nowhere in the article mentioned digital, I’ll give it the benefit of the doubt and take it into consideration. For simplicity sake we will assume 10.3M from oricon is the physical sale, I’ll even round it up to 10.5M lower the gap needed to 2.2M


So we need to fill in the gap with digital sales of 2.2M. Instead of taking a blind approach to digital sales by taking an industry ratio (side note: digital only are common nowadays) and apply it to One Piece let narrow it to Shonen Jump series. Straight from an insider


First I need to mention this (again), One Piece are delayed by one month after the physical are released
To ease this part, here are some relevant quotes

I've been out of pace with this topic for a while, so I am completely out of context, but:




For the first one, it goes "By the way, approximately 20 of Shounen Jump's series have have total digital sales higher than 10 million yen. About 50 have have higher than 1 million yen. The artists' total pay is a combination of this, paper manga sales, overseas sales, royalties, and writing salary. There's still a long way to go."




...so it sounds like "digital sales don't make much" is the moral of the story.


Continuing on per Buranchi's request, the Twitter account belongs to a guy calling himself "Nakaji" and says he worked as an editor for Jump from 2004-2017, and then on Jump plus since 2017. He says he's worked with the following series (many I'm not aware of, sorry if I get the titles "wrong": Blue Flag, Maiden Empire, Amnesia Battery, Lycopene the Tomatoy Poodle, and Torture Princess Time, as well as the official Gintama app.


The second link was to a series of tweets that actually lead up to it, and it does change the context quite a bit. I hate that Twitter puts everything backwards. Here's the whole thing:



Which now brings us back to the original tweet, which I'mma edit a bit to account for knowing the context better:



So out of context, the first tweet made it sound like "man, Shounen Jump doesn't make much from digital sales", but in context it's more of a "damn, Shounen Jump artists don't even rely on digital sales, and look how hard we're going to have to work until Jump+ can compete with that!".


And this has been your marketing moment.

From that

So, in the month of May, ~20 Jump series sold more than 10M yen digitally across all stores, taking 500 yen as the average price, that means around 20k volumes per series per month.


While this is for 1 month only that means top series are only crossing 20k in the digital sales, do note this is a lower boundary, but I would say it shouldn’t be much higher and not exceeding 200k, let say we are very being generous and give OP 100k for new volumes month and 50k for the rest, that would put us at (4*100k) + (8*50k) = 800k, about ⅓ rd of the amount needed, even if we rounded it up to 1M, it would still be less than half the number needed, obviously this is just an estimation, but an educated estimates. Sure some might argue that it should have sold more, but we have no actual proof do we?


iii. Kimetsu Physical only

Do… do I have to talk about this? There are not really any talking points to be said here, Oricon have Kimetsu known number at 12.05M version this article 10.8M, which even if oricon overestimate, it would have made no sense. But, I’ll still try to argue otherwise.

(note: edited paragraph)
While Oricon full method are not exactly known 100%, they have never claimed to be total sales source, but only domestic estimates based on the stores their tracked. I mentioned above that they used POS as the main source, which I would suggest further reading own your own. But my point is that their estimates are… estimates. Hopefully their methodology is a consistent fair one and is used throughout for everything. In theory, depending on how the volumes are distributed to stores, if multipliers are used, it can cause some series to be overstated, i.e. more Kimetsu sent to bookstores compared to convenience stores or web stores. Even then, a 1.7M discrepancy is too much and in my opinion is unlikely.

Add to the fact of constant report of kimetsu being out of stock and the constant reprint orders, the 12.05M actually fit a lot more with the circulation numbers




Kimetsu oricon total at 14.72 which ties in pretty good with the 16M number

iv. Kimetsu Physical + Digital

Remember how physical is already hard to justify? Well if we add digital to the mix, this will make even less sense, to a point I can’t even explain it. If anyone can concisely do so, please, be my guest.


My only gripe is that I’ve seen people saying “OP sales are including digital & Kimetsu are not” or “Oricon are Physical only and the number from the article is including digital” if they took some time to look at oricon known the should have seen why that logic failed., I do want to add the discrepancy concerns between oricon and shueisha is a valid one, and I’ve always said that publishers word takes priority, even then this should have been a separate issue.

3. Conclusion
I am trying to be neutral in all of this and I hope I manage to do so. I am in no way claiming any party is actively lying. Probably there are miscommunication somewhere in the pipeline. My aim is laying out all the logic and facts that are available. The truth of the matter is, this is not even over, when Oricon numbers are released in a few days, we will be back at square one. But hopefully this would proactively solved some of the questions that may arise from it. If not, well I guess that requires a follow up.


The main takeaway here is simple. The numbers given are Circulation. Plain & simple not sales and not digital, it is the most simple explanation, without needing to do any complex 5d chess to solve. Occam's razor is at play, and the best solution is often the simplest one



 
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Aipom626

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Double Taisei had the most appropriate ending.

Never did escape from the issues I had with the premise, was like how would this end to solve the issue that a being like Taisei has without it going supernatural and fantasy.
For getting axed, Double Taisei was able to deliver one of the most satisfying ending I've read for a story that was clearly being told to wrap things up. Nothing about the last 2 chapters felt rushed at all, completely different from what happened with Kamio Yui. He made sure to hit the primary points, and touch upon all of the relevant characters and give them happy endings. There was only so far he could take the whole 2 people in 1 body thing, but all things considered, Fukuda did a great job telling an interesting tale for the latter two-thirds of the series.
 

pamuchi

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If says circulation numbers it makes sense since One Piece had 4 volumes released on 2019 fiscal year and if i'm not mistaken, they're still printing 3 million for each volume which means 4 volumes = 12 million copies printed, and the 700k must be older volumes getting reprints
So Shinuki was right all along.

Thanks for taking your time for explaining all this situation.
 

RafGL

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With circulation numbers, S8 should be number one.
--- Double Post Merged, , Original Post Date: ---
We should be having 500.000 copies in circulation by Volume 3 in January.
 

MangAniMY

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Well, that took a while
quotes to not be wall of text


Finally not sneaking writing during work hours on a phone,





1. The article itself



2. Circulation or Sales?




a. Circulations




i. One Piece Physical only




ii. One Piece Physical + Digital



iii. Kimetsu Physical




iii.01. Kimetsu Physical only (14M)


A


iii.02. Kimetsu Physical only (16M)



iv.01 Kimetsu Physical + digital (14M)




iv.02 Kimetsu Physical + digital (16M)



b. Sales





i. One Piece Physical only






ii. One Piece Physical + Digital



To ease this part, here are some relevant quotes








From that





iii. Kimetsu Physical only




iv. Kimetsu Physical + Digital




3. Conclusion






adding.... "so how can sales be more than print"


other than the fact that I don't actually think that number is actually up to date, a possible explanation is simply, Reprint arrives early, unlike new volumes Reprints doesn't have any embargo so store can sell the when the arrive.

we also don't actually know exactly what is print at range start and range end while it said 3M we don't actually know when was 3M, same with 16M, milestone are just that... milestone, it can be reported earlier or later, up to the publishers, while the actually end of range circulation number is known only to them...
 

ChocoBar9

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The article says it was for sales in general in fact it made a point of seperating sales numbers from circulation by saying that Kimetsu was 10 million in circulation come September. The article would not ony be out of date but also wrong if it was only for circulation. The more I read into this it just feels REALLY suspicious that Shuiesha would drop this bombshell for two titles so close to the Oricon sales tally, would make more sense if they showed numbers for the company as a whole.

@MangAniMY Do companies include the print amount in the sales data early for the amount they expect to sell rather than what it does? Maybe Shuiesha put the total amount it shipped out for the latest volume and not the amount it actually sold.
 
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ruggia

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While Orion full method are not exactly known 100%, they have never claimed to be total sales source, but only estimates for stores their tracked. I mentioned above that they use POS as the main source, which I would suggest further reading own your own. But my point is that they may or may not have used a multiplier to obtain their estimates, this hypothetical multiplier is hopefully a fair one and used the same throughout for everything. In theory, depending on how the volumes are distributed to stores, if multipliers are used, it can cause some series to be overstated, i.e. more Kimetsu sent to bookstores compared to convenience stores or web stores. Even then, a 1.7M discrepancy is too much and in my opinion unlikely.
The numbers Oricon provide are their extrapolation of total (nationwide) sale based on data from their partnered stores. If not, their numbers would be much further from print counts given the proportion of stores they represent.

From Oricon said:
音楽・映像ソフトを販売している全国19,027店の調査協力店(CDショップ、レンタルや書籍などを扱う複合店、家電量販店、コンビニエンスストア、ジャンル専門店、インターネット通販)の販売実績をもとに、全国の推定売上枚数を算出したものです。
 

Tamil

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I think OP faced the same issue with famous TV shows that keep go on and on, sooner or later the audiances grow fatigue and just wait till its ending to know the conclusion. Thus, the "ending in 5 years" is unreliable as heck and just another marketing trick to boost the sales and attract ex-readers. Or maybe they learn from KnY, that having a foreseeable ending will make it sells like hot cake.
That sounds ridiculous to use "ending in 5 years" as a marketing trick to boost sales. A series that is smaller in length will benefit from that, not OP. Kimetsu foreseeable ending works because its riding from the huge success from its new anime. It doesnt work with OP
--- Double Post Merged, , Original Post Date: ---

There's no incentive for Shuiesha to stretch to truth especially since these numbers are coming officially from them and Oricon is just another source and doesn't actually cover everything and has been wrong from time to time. All this is going to lead is people pushing to whichever source that aligns with them and hoping not to hinge too much on guessimates all the time.
Lol pretty much. In fact most of the people that are confused are probably people who voted for Kimetsu to be the #1 seller for 2019 :teehee.
 

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That sounds ridiculous to use "ending in 5 years" as a marketing trick to boost sales. A series that is smaller in length will benefit from that, not OP. Kimetsu foreseeable ending works because its riding from the huge success from its new anime. It doesnt work with OP
Also the anime was a huge success which lead even more people to buy it to catch up, this is what happened with Kuroko and Haikyuu. Its the perfect storm; successful anime leaves people wanting more so they seak out the manga to continue.
 

NyanPower

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Still, I believe that Shueisha just wanted to have OP stay #1 for whatever reasons. At the end of the day I don’t care which comes first or second as long as the industry is all good and fine, but it’s frustrating and insulting for people like me who have been following sales figures for years and years and then stuff like this happens. Again, better wait for Oricon Yearly Sales
 

ChocoBar9

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That sounds ridiculous to use "ending in 5 years" as a marketing trick to boost sales. A series that is smaller in length will benefit from that, not OP. Kimetsu foreseeable ending works because its riding from the huge success from its new anime. It doesnt work with OP
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Lol pretty much. In fact most of the people that are confused are probably people who voted for Kimetsu to be the #1 seller for 2019 :teehee.
The lesson here is to never try to one up the publisher. :3c

On the bright side this is the most interesting manga sales discussion has been since 2014 when AOT was 150k away from beating OP.
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Still I believe that Shueisha just wanted to have OP stay #1 for whatever reasons. At the end if the day I don’t care which comes first or second as long as the industry is all good and fine, but it’s frustrating and insulting for people like me who have been following sales figures for years and years and then stuff like this happens. Again, better wait for Oricon Yearly Sales
But it really doesn't benefit anyone if that was the case. OP being 1# is just a sign of consumer stagnation.
 
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