Mag Talk Weekly Shonen Jump [2020] - Discussion and ToC Talk

[Shinuki no Reborn]

MANGAHELPERS "TOC" POLL ISSUE #51 - VOTING!​

The poll for issue #51 is now open, vote for your favorite chapters of the week clicking HERE!

Alongside the release of Sakamoto Days, the extra series this week are:

-Dragon Ball Super 66
-Boruto: Naruto Next Generations 52
-Ghost Reaper Girl 10

Good Votes!

 

[Halloween]

Moderator Notice:
Henceforth, I will be deleting posts that complain about Weekly Shonen Jump having too many/not enough gag/battle/exorcism/sports/etc series.

These posts are not insightful, and do not meaningfully contribute to this thread. Also, this decision is not up for discussion, so posts discussing this decision will also be deleted.~ Halloween

 

[Ryuusei]

Spoiler: 52 TOC & 01 Preview

呪 僕 O マ ブ S C D 破 C B 夜 C 僕 あ 灼 ぼ チ 高 ア 森 A 仄 ぼ 次号カラー ヒロアカ アンデラ 夜桜 約ネバ 道産子 GIGA 岸本先生が描くコラボポスター 爆豪クリアファイル

Spoiler: Issue #52 ToC & Preview

Jujutsu Kaisen (Cover & LCP)
My Hero Academia
One Piece
Mashle
Black Clover
Sakamoto Days (CP)
Dr. Stone
Magu-chan: God of Destruction (CP)
Build King
Mission: Yozakura Family
Me & Roboco
Ayakashi Triangle (CP)
Shakunetsu no Niraikanai
We Never Learn
Chainsaw Man
Koukousei Kazoku
Undead Unluck
Moriking
Agravity Boys
Honomieru Shounen
Bokura no Ketsumei

Issue #1
Cover & LCP: My Hero Academia
CP: Undead Unluck, Mission: Yozakura Family, The Promised Neverland, Dosanko Gyaru wa Namaramenkoi

GIGA Preview
Collab poster by Kishimoto
Bakugou clear file

 

[tirakai]

You think they do this since there are so many weeks off at the end of the year for WSJ that saying all the December releases are the next year releases, gives them a longer shelf life?

I always figured they started out with a correct schedule, but since a year is actually 52 weeks plus 1-2 days they slowly fell behind. Hence why it doesn't matter that they have an extra break this month without making an extra double issue.

I don't know if that's the actual reason though

 

[perroloco]

Black Clover is in a very weird position, a position in which I think no other Jump title has ever been.

A battle manga that's certainly not selling super well but not super bad either (For today's standards, as previously discussed..) BUT it has a long anime adaptation that is still running..
I guess the closest manga that was in this situation was Toriko, which was still selling way better than BC IIRC.

From what we have seen streaming numbers play a big role nowadays and I can only assume Black Clover must be one of the most watched anime internationally, so I can only assume that perhaps international viewers are part of why BC anime keeps going (That and there haven't really been too many successful Jump action series).

A manga being cancelled 1-2 years after it's anime's cancellation is kind of an unwritten rule in Jump I guess. In a sense the stopping of BC episodes due to COVID19 might have helped stretch BC manga a bit, because if for example its new episodes return in 2 seasons that's extra time it gets, plus Pierrot never said it was going to cancel it, or did they?

Anyways you can pretty much assume if BC anime ends BC manga will end within 2 years of that time period, if more known/better selling manga were cancelled like Shaman King and Saint Seiya due to this I can't see Black Clover surviving.

the thing is the story isnt only based on asta, there are many plans tabata has for its story and hes an author that has ALOT of ideas. we barely had ''worldbuilding'' before the time-skip. 2 years is too if the elf arc was already like a year

Not every series gets to be One Piece which can even have "filler" arcs lol. If you are a mangaka in WSJ you are already extremely "lucky" to have been serialized let along have a long running manga, but as already said in the tread very few manga get to 5+ years let along 10 years.

What I'm trying to say is Tabata could have all the plans in the world for his manga, but if sales decline he's not gonna get to those arcs.

Even within Jump, series that struggled to ever sell above 30k have lasted a good few years and ended naturally. And look at Yuuna right now, how much does it get per volume? ~60k maybe? And it's still sticking around spending plenty of time wrapping up everthing. 20k to 30k is profitable enough for WSJ.

Even with sales dropping, Black Clover's never going to hit a point where it's no longer profitable even by WSJ standards, what matters to them is if it's still popular enough with their weekly readers.

Oh, I'm sure even 20K would be profitable yeah, as you said if Black Clover was in any other magazine but WSJ it probably be one of the best sellers in the other magazine, thing is BC is in WSJ which has other standards.

But yeah, not like BC would ever reach 20k-30k sales per volume as it would have been long cancelled before that, because even if 20k-30k per volumes would be profitable for Shueisha, you know what would be more profitable? A manga that sells 100k-200k per volume first week, and that's what WSJ is actively looking for: Big selling titles.

So WSJ is not gonna wait until a series gets unprofitable, they cancel it long before that, even when it's sales are still super profitable, because they think long term, they need to establish new properties so they cancel the declining ones because they have limited resources (e.g. the slots of weekly manga) and if they see BC's growth is not only over but actually declining and it's anime finishes.. It'd be pretty much game over within 1-2 years.

 

[NeeNeen]

Black Clover is a battle manga, different situations. BC could survive due to being a more "classic" battle shonen, but I wouldn't bet on it.
It's sad, but competition is what makes Jump the way it is. The toc in combination with sales, while considering the fact BC never sold 400k or higher makes me doubt BC's chances.

That competition isn't much right now though. After Kimetsu and TPN end, there will only be, what, five? WSJ manga left that sell more than 400k.

But yeah, not like BC would ever reach 20k-30k sales per volume as it would have been long cancelled before that, because even if 20k-30k per volumes would be profitable for Shueisha, you know what would be more profitable? A manga that sells 100k-200k per volume first week, and that's what WSJ is actively looking for: Big selling titles.

So WSJ is not gonna wait until a series gets unprofitable, they cancel it long before that, even when it's sales are still super profitable, because they think long term, they need to establish new properties so they cancel the declining ones because they have limited resources (e.g. the slots of weekly manga) and if they see BC's growth is not only over but actually declining and it's anime finishes.. It'd be pretty much game over within 1-2 years.

Yeah, but they first need to FIND a manga that sells 100k-200k per volume first week. They can look for big selling titles all they want, but if all new series either flop completely or keep hanging on by a thread (as they have been doing for the last year), they would have to be stupid to cancel one of their few remaining profitable titles.

So unless you think WSJ will be able to start 10 new big sellers in the next two years, BC should be pretty safe.

 

[BX-02BLODIA]

Jump manga of the 70s didn't sell super well from the numbers we have, but in the late 70s it started getting the super hot sellers like Ring Ni Kakero, Cobra, Kochikame, Kinnikuman and then in the early 80s Dr.Slump and Captain Tsubasa.

I think Jump hottest manga from its start until it got to Ring Ni Kakero/Cobra was a western manga called Koya No Shonen Isamu, it even got re-released during Jump 45tj anniversary in a very expensive edition (1,400 yen per volume IIRC).

Isamu...been wating to read that for a while. But there's no Edited Mangas out there, right?

 

[101nemesis]

Even within Jump, series that struggled to ever sell above 30k have lasted a good few years and ended naturally. And look at Yuuna right now, how much does it get per volume? ~60k maybe? And it's still sticking around spending plenty of time wrapping up everthing. 20k to 30k is profitable enough for WSJ.

I don't get why you're comparing vastly different series. Yuuna is Ecchi. The readers its aimed at is vastly different to a battle manga. Different genres have different targets. Its why Nisekoi (rom-com) hitting 200-300k was considered great. Saiki (comedy) hitting 100+ was considered good. Beelzebub (comedy) hitting 300k was considered great.

Question - How many ecchi driven manga are there currently in WSJ?
Answer - One ie. Yuuna.

Question - How many established battle manga do we have in WSJ at the moment?
Answer - One Piece, KNY, MHA, TPN, Dr. Stone (Sorta), Jujutsu Kaisen, Black Clover, Chainsaw Man which is 8.
Black Clover is going to slip into 7th best selling in that list within the next volume or so with the way Dr. Stone is rising. Chainsaw Man is also on the rise with every volume. Add this to the fact that BC is declining with every volume.

Sure MHA, OP, TPN are all declining but their sales are significantly higher than BC and gives them an automatic cushion.

Even with sales dropping, Black Clover's never going to hit a point where it's no longer profitable even by WSJ standards, what matters to them is if it's still popular enough with their weekly readers.

Lol, what a flawed statement. Beelzebub sold somewhere between 120-150k for its final volume. Something similar to what BC seems to be inching towards within the next few volumes. Yet Beelzebub was cancelled.
Pretty sure S8 was also super profitable for them. Heck, if they waited out till an anime, they might (possibility, dont @ me) have even gotten a 150k-200k seller like BC but to them it was obviously not worth it.

As an example from another industry, Transformer movies have earned billions of dollars in the industry yet all it took was 1 movie doing 600 million (still profitable) to have them stop everything and change direction to prequel with different direction and probably reboots n new direction. Why is that? Declining franchises are a loss. The money, time, effort put in elsewhere could have the potential to provide better returns.

I honestly don't care if BC survives or not. If it does, good. The mangaka will still have a job and income. If anything, I hope it actually starts doing better and reaches a new peak and growth instead of declining because all I've been seeing is that BC as a series is great right now. So it would suck if the mangaka who improved and kept improving suddenly had to stop.

But your arguments of why it WILL survive are just plain wrong.

The main thing on BC's side right now is the potential end of KNY and TPN meaning WSJ will be looking for newbies to take over. That's it. The moment they get two titles that show promise, BC will be one of the first on the chopping blocks.

 

[Azure Warrior]

Isamu also piques my interest as from what I heard, it is a well done Western manga that tackles the idea of racism. Even the main character happens to be part Native as it is not some throwaway and ties heavily into the plot. Which is unique since Jump rarely has any non-Japanese protagonists. Isamu could be one of the firsts of the past.

 

[tirakai]

Odd to think that, just a few years ago, there were so many successful long running series that even decently popular new manga struggled to find a place in the line-up. If Kimetsu and Neverland really are ending very soon, the safe, successful series left are

One Piece
Haikyuu
My Hero Academia
Black Clover
Yuuna
We Never Learn
Dr Stone
Act-age
Jujutsu Kaisen
Chainsawman

and even of that list We Never Learn should end around December at the latest, Yuuna's likely to end this year too, and Haikyuu might not have long left either (since the current match is pretty much what the whole series has been building up to).

At this time next year only 7-8 series out of 20 will be more than 2 years old. I really hope a couple of the current new things become proper hits so that we're not left with a magazine of only 7 popular stuff and 13 series filling space until they get cancelled.

 

[perroloco]

That competition isn't much right now though. After Kimetsu and TPN end, there will only be, what, five? WSJ manga left that sell more than 400k.




Yeah, but they first need to FIND a manga that sells 100k-200k per volume first week. They can look for big selling titles all they want, but if all new series either flop completely or keep hanging on by a thread (as they have been doing for the last year), they would have to be stupid to cancel one of their few remaining profitable titles.

So unless you actually think WSJ will be able to start more than 10 new big sellers in the next two years, BC should be pretty safe.

Then WSJ is the most stupid company ever, because as I said their model is nothing new, they have cancelled series way bigger than BC will ever be (e.g. Saint Seiya and Shaman King which were still very very profitable) and in return they got big hits, it's a clean rinse and repeat strategy that has yet to prove unsuccessful to them over the course of their 50th year run.

Could it backfire for them? Yes, sure. We have been thinking about it for... Quite some time. As I said a couple of pages ago:

Beelzebub, Nisekoi, Toriko, Assasination Classroom, Naruto, BLEACH, Kochikame, Kuroko No Basket all ended between 2014 and 2016, two years apart from each other. That's 8 manga and not just any manga, it's pretty much the biggest series Jump had in 2014 half of its (most successful) line up gone in the span of two years.

We were all theorizing this was the end of Jump! Then Jump had two super hot successes: The Promised Neverland which I think even sold more than Naruto ever did in a single oricon year, and KnY which is the biggest hit Jump had had in 20 years (Even surpassing BLEACH). Also Boku No Hero is selling fine.

So my best guess is Jump probably won't go bankrupt if it cancels BC.. But yeah their strategy could at some point backfire, like if it doesn't get a single success in 2-3 years that would be not nice at all.

They also have gold years like 2004 IIRC, the year Gintama, Reborn, D-GrayMan and Death Note all debuted 3 months apart from each other IIRC also Muhyo debuted too..
2016 too, the very same year BLEACH ended JUMP got TPN, KnY and Yuuna (And Boruto... I guess... Kinda counts?)

There's also drought years with nothing successful in the new serialization batches: 2010-2011 two years with the only hit being Nisekoi. 2005-2006 were pretty bad years too with only Neuro and To Love Ru.

Also.. I don't get your point of 10 new big series? They only need one new big series out of a batch of new serializations per cancelled series for this to be profitable.

I'm not saying BC is getting cancelled any time soon, but if sales decline (And they probably will) and its anime ends (It probably will at some point too) it will. The one thing that could save BC is Pierrot continuing its anime, which could happen as I said, maybe international streaming rights and stuff pays well enough that its anime continues and WSJ keeps it around despite its declining sales.

 

[tirakai]

10 is a bit much, but WSJ definitely needs at least 5 hit series in the next year or WSJ's established line-up will shrink even further.

Have we had many years with 5 different hit series?

 

[James Rye]

Cute doggo is cute.

I really like SxF covers, they have such a simple pattern but it works so well.

I really like how the chairs from the 60s/70s get used as a prominent part of the cover, very stylish. <3
Can't wait to see in what kinda chair Damian gonna sit in, assuming he is on cover 5.

Don't follow SxF but I'd buy that volume just for that doggo.

Doggo is best boy! But be careful, doggo is also a penguin murderer. o.o

 

[TyVip]

10 is a bit much, but WSJ definitely needs at least 5 hit series in the next year or WSJ's established line-up will shrink even further.

Have we had many years with 5 different hit series?

Using WSJ 1-52 issue. The highest is 4 in 2012
then 3 in 2016

 

[Tarot]

From what we have seen streaming numbers play a big role nowadays and I can only assume Black Clover must be one of the most watched anime internationally, so I can only assume that perhaps international viewers are part of why BC anime keeps going (That and there haven't really been too many successful Jump action series).

This is the most important thing that's keeping BC alive. Saying BC's anime is "moderately successful" is a big understatement. It has continued to be TV Tokyo's most profitable anime (4th in ranking last year) and if it wasn't for the pandemic, we'd have the anime airing for its 4th year. The fact that the anime has survived for three years so far without any strong support from its merch or video game side just shows how profitable the anime license is on its own. As long as the anime continues to air, volume sales will be irrelevant to guess when the manga will end.

 

[tirakai]

Looking through the list, I think there are 3 WSJ years with 5 at least okay hits (defining hit as something that either lasted over 2 years, or got an anime if it was shorter) and two of those only technically count

1988 - Bastard, Jungle King Tar-chan, Kami-sama wa Southpaw, Rokudenashi Blues, Magical Taluluto
2004 - Death Note, Gintama, Reborn, D.Gray-man, Muhyo & Rouji
2008 - Psyren, Nura, Toriko, Bakuman, Inumarudashii

1998 only technically counts since Bastard, while a hit, switched magazines before the two year point.
2004 only technically counts since Death Note was #1 while Muhyo was #53 (so in the one WSJ year but actually more than a year apart I guess?). Although if you cut out Muhyo, you could add in Busou Renkin from 2003 and put it in the second list.

Though there's a few more periods I can see where 5 hits started within a year of each other.

1990-91 maaaybe - Slam Dunk, Chinyuuki (shorter than 2 years and no anime but seems well-remembered), YYH, Outer Zone, Pennant Race (never heard of these last two but they both lasted about 3 years)
1992-93 - BØY, Ninku, Luckyman, DNA², Nube
1996-97 maybe - Hoshin Engi, Yugioh, Bastard Law arc, Tenten-kun, I"s
1997-98 - Takeshi-kun, One Piece, Rookies, Whistle, HxH, Shaman King
2003-04 - Busou Renkin, Death Note, Gintama, Reborn, D.Gray-man
2012-13 - Haikyuu, Saiki Kusuo, Ass Class, Food Wars, World Trigger

--- Double Post Merged, Apr 25, 2020, Original Post Date: Apr 25, 2020 ---

So it's certainly possible we could see 5 of the new series stick around long term.

--- Double Post Merged, Apr 25, 2020 ---

Reading about it, I'm actually really curious to read Outer Zone since it's apparently a Twilight Zone-inspired manga.

Might try to find it once I move to Japan next year.

 

[Rain Spectre]

Nother Horikoshi x One Piece illustration.

 

[perroloco]

This is the most important thing that's keeping BC alive. Saying BC's anime is "moderately successful" is a big understatement. It has continued to be TV Tokyo's most profitable anime (4th in ranking last year) and if it wasn't for the pandemic, we'd have the anime airing for its 4th year. The fact that the anime has survived for three years so far without any strong support from its merch or video game side just shows how profitable the anime license is on its own. As long as the anime continues to air, volume sales will be irrelevant to guess when the manga will end.

If push comes to shove and the anime is as successful as you say it is then Black Clover moves to SQ or something if it keeps declining instead of just being cancelled. (BTW I'm not saying is not true, I just don't know but if it continued to its 4th year it must be successful)

But yeah, I don't see your point in bringing this up, every single person here discussing Black Clover has mentioned pretty much the same: Its anime is what will continue keeping it alive (Along with the current WSJ being kinda weak -assuming TPN and KnY will end soon-).

IF the anime does indeed end in episode 154 (I think it was mentioned or something? I'm not completely sure). And IF the anime doesn't return. And IF manga sales don't improve then Black Clover will end within 1-2 years of all this happening.

These are 3 big "IFs" but everything points out that they will happen.

This also happened to Shaman King. To Saint Seiya. To Katekyo Hitman Reborn. Recently to Toriko too. All of these were way more popular and had better sales than Black Clover. There are a few exceptions like D-Gray Man but that manga is a special case similar to Hunter x Hunter (And World Trigger I guess) so they weren't canceled because their authors have health problems and were instead moved to irregular schedules.

Now before you mention episode 154 is supposed to be a hiatus.. Yeah, it's supposed to be a hiatus, but if the anime ends Black Clover will decrease its chances of continuing in WSJ and if BC is eventually canceled then maybe the anime continuation never happens.

@tirakai most of Outer Zone is already scanlated IIRC.

 

[TJQ15]

Looking through the list, I think there are 3 WSJ years with 5 at least okay hits (defining hit as something that either lasted over 2 years, or got an anime if it was shorter) and two of those only technically count

1988 - Bastard, Jungle King Tar-chan, Kami-sama wa Southpaw, Rokudenashi Blues, Magical Taluluto
2004 - Death Note, Gintama, Reborn, D.Gray-man, Muhyo & Rouji
2008 - Psyren, Nura, Toriko, Bakuman, Inumarudashii

1998 only technically counts since Bastard, while a hit, switched magazines before the two year point.
2004 only technically counts since Death Note was #1 while Muhyo was #53 (so in the one WSJ year but actually more than a year apart I guess?). Although if you cut out Muhyo, you could add in Busou Renkin from 2003 and put it in the second list.

Though there's a few more periods I can see where 5 hits started within a year of each other.

1990-91 maaaybe - Slam Dunk, Chinyuuki (shorter than 2 years and no anime but seems well-remembered), YYH, Outer Zone, Pennant Race (never heard of these last two but they both lasted about 3 years)
1992-93 - BØY, Ninku, Luckyman, DNA², Nube
1996-97 maybe - Hoshin Engi, Yugioh, Bastard Law arc, Tenten-kun, I"s
1997-98 - Takeshi-kun, One Piece, Rookies, Whistle, HxH, Shaman King
2003-04 - Busou Renkin, Death Note, Gintama, Reborn, D.Gray-man
2012-13 - Haikyuu, Saiki Kusuo, Ass Class, Food Wars, World Trigger

--- Double Post Merged, Apr 25, 2020, Original Post Date: Apr 25, 2020 ---

So it's certainly possible we could see 5 of the new series stick around long term.

--- Double Post Merged, Apr 25, 2020 ---

Reading about it, I'm actually really curious to read Outer Zone since it's apparently a Twilight Zone-inspired manga.

Might try to find it once I move to Japan next year.

Anybody know anything about Outer Zone? I’m pretty curious.

 

[Thehoennhippo]

Horikoshi's Luffy is so cute.

 

[perroloco]

Anybody know anything about Outer Zone? I’m pretty curious.

Think Twilight zone in manga form basically. A series of unrelated stories with one common topic: horror/mistery, the one thing in common is the narrator from what I read.
You can check it out yourself most of it is scanlated.

 

[tirakai]

Looking it up, I can see up to ch 50 scanlated which is less than half (the original series had 117 chapters), and it seems to be mostly abandoned.

It's something at least, it's always interested to check out these forgotten jump classics.

 

[perroloco]

Looking it up, I can see up to ch 50 scanlated which is less than half (the original series had 117 chapters), and it seems to be mostly abandoned.

It's something at least, it's always interested to check out these forgotten jump classics.

Could've sworn there was more scanlated.. But seems like you are right, other manga I'd recommend if you enjoy this one is Hell Teacher Nube also from SJ, and outside Jump Pet Shop of Horrors is similar too.

--- Double Post Merged, Apr 25, 2020, Original Post Date: Apr 25, 2020 ---

Isamu...been wating to read that for a while. But there's no Edited Mangas out there, right?

Not that I know of. There was apparently a group that subs old anime that was gonna sub it iirc. But I doubt it.