I think Demon is town. He said he would send his last will, and then I stalked his profile, and it read "Last seen engaged in conversation", in other words, pm'ing.
I don't really doubt Philia either, so double town kill today? Maybe I should change vote to try some last minute changes? Dunno. Wonder if it is possible.
Let's say Philia is mafia, then we trigger the first power, During the night we'd pick someone and then when D2 starts we'd get to know who acted on him. What if he dies during the night? He won't be a living person like the power says anymore. So we'd only be able to pick someone on D2?
There seems to be some mild confusion on how to use the powers. Consider the following. What power you will use, is predetermined. In the OP (and below this paragraph) you will find a list with the powers ordered. Once the first mafia member dies, the first power is used. When a mafia member dies next time, the second power is used. Alternatively, if your numbers have been culled too much, the power will activate also. In other words, one way or the other, you use up one power in order to make use of the next one.
As for using the power - the relevant faction simply places a vote on their desired target, stating explicitly that they are using the power, not their vote kill.
Triggers
1. Whenever a faction eliminates Mafia Member from within their ranks;
2. Whenever the fourth member of a team would be eliminated;
Powers
1. The faction may target one living player, and find out who they targeted during the last phase.
2. The faction may target one dead player to investigate. The investigation reveals what roles targeted the victim during his last phase alive, and who they targeted during their last phase alive.
3. The faction may target one player to block out of using any night actions for the following night phase.
4. The faction may target and grant one player immunity for the following night phase.
Example Day 1: Scum dies on captain side, host announces that during the next day phase, the power can be activated. Day 2: Relevant town faction (side mafia died on) places votes on their desired target + Scum dies on Visored side. Night 2: *power 1 is used: town finds out who someone targeted* Day 3: Relevant town faction (side mafia died on) places votes on their desired target. Night 3: *power 2 is used: town investigates a dead player*
Okay, so while it's not necessarily true, it is usually likely that when there is bandwagon there is atleast one mafia among the group. Out of the 5 people to votekill Phil, remaining are DD, xi0 & Holt.
Read thorough James' posts and didn't really note anything special. He random voted Erinyes and speculated on the possible setups for the game. Maybe there is something that got him killed? Or perhaps it is just that he is good to get rid off early.
Of the three mentioned:
xi0 posted only twice during the day, so there should be a penalty vote coming. On his first post he boastingly joined the leading lynch train without any explanation. Definetly eye catching.
DD first voted Demon (he always goes for fast random vote on day 1) and the said that Phil was most suspicous (something I never got) and then went "oops, accidentally votelocked, too much mafiachampionships". Which I don't really buy.
Holt was suspected by many on day 1. First to vote Philia. Said "let's see if I can provoke something" and dissappeared without actually following thorough this provoke. Just reached the 3 post quota.
Frankly, I find all three very shady. Gonna need to sleep now though.
* Special powers aren't completely different from what we normally have in the games. Number 3 acts like a Prostitute ability, for example.
* It makes less sense to make a special power like that and include Prostitute or Mortician (Correct me if I'm wrong, I remember this role as the dead body investigator) in the Town regardless. That would take away from the unique ability and the Town's ability to use it properly would not matter.
* To trigger special powers, it's more beneficial to keep killing people from your own faction.
* If the Mafia members are evenly distributed between the factions -which may or may not be true, but can be considered likely at least-, we will have to keep track of the odds after each voting. In this case, if Philia is Mafia, and we have a 2+2 = 4 Mafia player setup, we would have a 1/7 chance amongst the rest of the Visored faction to hit another Mafia member. And that would be 2/8 for Captain's faction.
* If a Town person dies in the night, depending on which faction he belongs to, the above odds would change, as well. If they kill a Captain Townie, it'd be 2/7 for us to find a Mafia amongst them. If they kill a Visored Townie, it'd be 1/6 for us to find a Mafia amongst them.
* TL;DR for the above two points from a mathematical perspective, to preserve better odds of finding Mafia, it looks better to alternate between factions rather than keep killing a person from one faction only.
All in all, I see more benefit in thinking about the potential of Day 2 here to figure out what to do.
What you said isn't correct 'cause it's incomplete.
1- You suggested us to alternate our lynchings between factions after building your case solely on the scenario where Philia would be mafia.
You didn't include the other scenario, which would show your suggestion as flawed (Philia as townie, following your math, would mean that after the night kill Visored could have 2/6 while Captains could have 2/7, so keeping people's focus on Visored would still be better than switching).
2- You forgot to also suggest people (townies) to cross themselves out of the bunch in order to check the odds. Knowing I'm a townie, I don't have to think of Visored as 2/6 mafias now, but 2/5. And people need to always have that in mind whenever they're basing their votes on odds. In this case, what's best for the indivual townie will be the best collectivelly, so the generical view is inadequate.
As I said to James, it makes me think you didn't see your own self as a townie for those. You didn't have that perspective 'cause it's something you have to think about, instead of something that would come naturally to you. Also, it looked like you're trying to get some leverage, inducing people to "dilute" mafia's numbers by switching teams.
Then I was thinking... Why would Haku do that... If he's mafia, he would (most likely) know from the very start that Philia is townie. What would he gain from saying something that people could state that is not the case after the outcome? And I honestly believe you were 'planting' an idea earlier so, later, whenever a mafia would fall, you could pick it up to say "now let's switch factions", scattering our attempts since you didn't take into consideration my second point.
votekill Haku
Ps.: Another interest thing about this "odds" shit: I believe it's more likely that the mafia will attack the faction with more "townie per mafia". If they decrease Visored numbers even more, that will make it easier for us to find the mafia members in this faction.
That's also helpful to doctors and detectives: the first group, currently, could focus on people from Captains while the second one could focus on Visored.
Of course that if mafia has completely unbalanced numbers between the factions, then all I said is a bunch of bs '-'
(Bear with wtv problem this post has since I was struggling with my phone)
Okay, I am tired as fck but wtv. catched up with yesterday stuffs and all. crappy engerishuu textuu here I comuhh~
Okay, so 16 players in games, 3 townies died (Philia, Demonspeed and James). If we assume that there are 4 mafia's around than it is right now 9 townies vs 4 mafia's. If we assume there is a third party around than it would be 9 townies vs 3 mafia's vs 1 third party.
Mafia has at this rate imo now a bigger advantage. Firstly; They can kill at night (apperantly as usually) or else James would have not died this night phase and I highly doubt that this is a work of an insane doctor or a pgo or something like that.
Secondly; I think Demon voted for Philia because he is confirmed an innocent child (and dead, ty sir bombuuuu) so he was prolly like 'oh, everyone votekills him well since I am innocent kiddo will vote him too'. It would not really surprise me if that would be the case, tbh, imo.
Last but not least; As I early mentioned 3 townies have died right now (Philia, Demonspeed and James) and we are now clueless atm since oh boy it is Day 2 and already 3 townies gone rofl gg xd. If we lose today a townie and during Night Phase one.. yeah than honestly, imo, that sounds like a doomed scenario for townies.
Also, I had like to mention about the faction/group thing you guys talked about it, yesterday. Both Philia and Demonspeed were from the visored faction. James was from the Gotei faction/group. If we assume that there are indeed 2 mafia members (if there are 4 mafia members or 3 mafia members and a third party. Nothingless it comes to the same down, 4 baddies) than the chance in Visored faction to find a mafia is at this moment a little bit higher. However, even tho it would be higher if we assume that there are 2 mafia's in each faction/group, does not necessarily mean that we could find it so easily, but the chance in there are higher from this perspective, imo. (Unless Panda is trolling around and putted all mafia members and or third party in one group faction xddd but I doubt that).
Anyway,I think that we should give some hints about our roles. And let me be so polite to start giving a hint about my role: I did not had this role before (fck this role), under the right circumstance and time, I can be useful if I do it correctly, that is.
What you said isn't correct 'cause it's incomplete.
1- You suggested us to alternate our lynchings between factions after building your case solely on the scenario where Philia would be mafia.
You didn't include the other scenario, which would show your suggestion as flawed (Philia as townie, following your math, would mean that after the night kill Visored could have 2/6 while Captains could have 2/7, so keeping people's focus on Visored would still be better than switching).
I never suggested my theorizing was complete. It comes down to switching between factions being the better option in the case Philia turns out to be a Mafia member. Not sure what the point is, since the math still proves that branch of the scenario more reasonable to me.
2- You forgot to also suggest people (townies) to cross themselves out of the bunch in order to check the odds. Knowing I'm a townie, I don't have to think of Visored as 2/6 mafias now, but 2/5. And people need to always have that in mind whenever they're basing their votes on odds. In this case, what's best for the indivual townie will be the best collectivelly, so the generical view is inadequate.
As I said to James, it makes me think you didn't see your own self as a townie for those. You didn't have that perspective 'cause it's something you have to think about, instead of something that would come naturally to you. Also, it looked like you're trying to get some leverage, inducing people to "dilute" mafia's numbers by switching teams.
Why should we cross ourselves out from the equation? We can't possibly know about one guy's identity baring a confirmation. To the third party, I really don't know why it should be anything any more than that.
But that's just me and my perspective. If you have played enough with me, you should, by this point, know that I never refer to myself as if I'm a Townie while playing the games. It's just me preferring to jump to a third party stance whenever possible for my personal enjoyment.
Then I was thinking... Why would Haku do that... If he's mafia, he would (most likely) know from the very start that Philia is townie. What would he gain from saying something that people could state that is not the case after the outcome? And I honestly believe you were 'planting' an idea earlier so, later, whenever a mafia would fall, you could pick it up to say "now let's switch factions", scattering our attempts since you didn't take into consideration my second point.
Well, technically speaking, a Mafia member would gain nothing from the claims I made, for that they aren't really claims, but an attempt to come up with a plan.
"Planting the idea early on" part doesn't really make sense to me. I'd love to discuss this part more, because I believe saying this at a particularly unfruitful point in the game (i.e Townie dying) returns no results for Mafia. I also still stand by switching between factions idea, which included the condition that we hit a Mafia player, which we haven't been able to meet.
--- Double Post Merged, , Original Post Date: ---
By the way, somehow (no idea how), I seem to be quoting Ustegius, but this whole thing was a response to Farfalla. Not sure how this happened, lol.
Nah I didn't mean you should rule out someone you think it's a townie. I meant that for those who are townies, individually, if they decide to vote based on odds, they have to count themselves off the bunch.
By your reply I don't think you quite got my points, specially when it comes to point 2) and to my conclusion, so I guess I explained like shit :/
Okay, so while it's not necessarily true, it is usually likely that when there is bandwagon there is atleast one mafia among the group. Out of the 5 people to votekill Phil, remaining are DD, xi0 & Holt.
Read thorough James' posts and didn't really note anything special. He random voted Erinyes and speculated on the possible setups for the game. Maybe there is something that got him killed? Or perhaps it is just that he is good to get rid off early.
Of the three mentioned:
xi0 posted only twice during the day, so there should be a penalty vote coming. On his first post he boastingly joined the leading lynch train without any explanation. Definetly eye catching.
DD first voted Demon (he always goes for fast random vote on day 1) and the said that Phil was most suspicous (something I never got) and then went "oops, accidentally votelocked, too much mafiachampionships". Which I don't really buy.
Holt was suspected by many on day 1. First to vote Philia. Said "let's see if I can provoke something" and dissappeared without actually following thorough this provoke. Just reached the 3 post quota.
Frankly, I find all three very shady. Gonna need to sleep now though.
True, this is usually the case. Well, I never bet on the bandwagons, but there usually is a pattern.
Might be about his overall skill. I don't think his random vote or the setup speculation meant a lot, because he didn't really reveal what he was thinking actually.
-xi0 got his penalty votes, so there is that. To be fair, he is one of the people I can't quite read, so, I hesitate here, because whenever I guessed something about him, I have been proven wrong. This sort of play, I saw from him before. Once, I thought he was Mafia and he wasn't. Once, I thought he was Townie and he was Mafia. Difficult call.
-Well, I do know about first day votes, but this sort of slip-up, I don't remember. I haven't played in enough games to go based on history. Plus, I also thought Demon couldn't be slipping up (i.e changing and vote locking on Philia fast after blaming Holt for going after Philia), but it appears to have happened.
-He is a suspect because of what had happened. Out of the three, he'll be most likely to be questioned about stuff.
Dunno Haku imo if you're mafia I don't think you'd pursue simple actions, I think you'd work around a bigger scenario. Hence planting the idea. Otherwise I can't see why you would omit the rest of your logic while making your switching suggestion. Gunning down a mafia shouldn't be a condition to switching solely. Mafia will switch between factions based on our numbers, it seems, and so should we.
Nah I didn't mean you should rule out someone you think it's a townie. I meant that for those who are townies, individually, if they decide to vote based on odds, they have to count themselves off the bunch.
By your reply I don't think you quite got my points, specially when it comes to point 2) and to my conclusion, so I guess I explained like shit :/
I did get the point 2, and my response was directly pointed at that. I, as a player, do not count myself towards Townies while playing.
It might be unreasonable, but that's what I mean by third party stance. I never go with an argument like "Okay, I'm Townie, so, one of these X people are Mafia" while analysing the game.
As for the conclusion part, yeah, I have to admit I didn't understand the planting an idea part and whatnot, since, for a planted idea to succeed, you need to feed it, and in this case, a Townie's death doesn't do that, and in fact, refutes it in contrast. Enlighten me where I'm missing stuff.
But regardless, it's a good thing that you took an initiative. The stalemate is more likely to be broken fast now.
These long fukan post...let's just pry the fuck out of holt,DD and xi0!!!!
I've had this role before and it's nothing special.
Oh oh....why I voted Erin....
All of us have our quirks....
I never trust anyone who says"I just don't know who to vote for?"
That easy ride on someone's random suggestion to vote for such and such
For me DD and magi most suspicious.
Like ust pointed out, DD's actions during last day was so suspicious.
About magi... Well not that I have something about her but what is with her last post?
Though gary is also dangerous too.
Dunno Haku imo if you're mafia I don't think you'd pursue simple actions, I think you'd work around a bigger scenario. Hence planting the idea. Otherwise I can't see why you would omit the rest of your logic while making your switching suggestion. Gunning down a mafia shouldn't be a condition to switching solely. Mafia will switch between factions based on our numbers, it seems, and so should we.
That's correct. I always scheme grandiose things, as a Townie or a Mafia.
However, I didn't really omit anything. I was merely going by the sample at the hand. It doesn't mean much if the person was Philia or it was the first day. That was my overall logic.
Ah, with that being said, one other thing my hypothesis didn't include was the possibility of two Townies or a Townie and a Mafia dying together, because it was presented before Philia's bomb claim. With that in mind, it becomes even more incomplete.
Like you said and I confirmed, I always scheme grandiose things, as a Townie or Mafia. Switching after a Mafia kill is still reasonable to pull off (that is, provided, we can get a Mafia lynched), and much more flashy as a move for either party, rather than following a number-prioritizing strategy. I'd rather go with the way I suggested, but that doesn't mean the rest of the players will follow suit.
Planting this idea and waiting for it to be triggered still makes very little sense for a Mafia player. With a 2+2 faction setup, after that Mafia kill, it'd have to be 2+1, and going by my hypothesis, I'd be suggesting to go and kill someone from the faction that includes more Mafia players to choose from. In short, rather than scattering people from my teammates, I'd be leading the Town to where more Mafia members reside.
The only scenario that I could see this benefiting a Mafia player is if there was a 3+1 setup and a Mafia from that 3-person faction was killed subsequently. However, even if I hate it, I have to admit this actually goes a bit above my level as a player, since I'd have to construct a scenario in which one of those people would have to be me (because if I wasn't one of the three, I'd be leading the Town towards myself), and two more, from which one of them would have to be lynched. All in all, this is a bit more niche than my theorizing can handle.
