Games Mafia Game 58 - Umineko: How to play 13 - END GAME

[Elusia]

Good evening everyone
I know it's getting late in my timezone and I still need to recover but I'll try to be active until 12 or 1 am (which is few hours from now)

I'll give another hint about my role and later talk more about the notes. It's rather risky.

 

[Vandred]

Hm there's several roles that are good in experienced players' hands. I think you're hinting Spy?

--- Double Post Merged, Nov 17, 2017 ---

A crisis? Anything you need help on?

I think one would need to be blind to miss that Zimb is hinting Prostitute and Bel is a Det...

 

[Spirit]

Votekill Vandred

I just don't see how he can legitimately blow off these suspicious people. To me it just seems like he's trying to shove off threats to him. Also, I don't see how Zimb hinted at Prostitute in any way. He said that he felt his role required a lot of experience to be used well. That is true for just about any role. I personally just don't trust Bel at this point due to her odd behaviour.

 

[z.5]

Oh.. I don't know about MG since I never played mafia and not sure how trustworthy I'd be there, but generally I consider myself very trustworthy and reliable for others. Unsure how I gave you that impression, but it doesn't matter for this game. I asked because I thought you're hinting detective with this, having gotten a guilty from me on night 1 or something, but I guess not.

I wouldn't take it that personally - you aren't a vegetarian and my fridge is full of some pretty quality stuff.

Hm there's several roles that are good in experienced players' hands. I think you're hinting Spy?

Think what you like, I am already pretty sure I have given away a little too much (certainly more than most people here have - 'I don't like my role' or 'my role is not so useful')

Just know this - if we were playing in person and I had played with all these roles before, I'd probably be playing this role quite differently than I currently am.

Which reminds me, you didn't answer my question.

Other than minimum posting, posting 'nothing posts' or being super reckless, are there any good litmus tests which I can use to separate some of the more closely related roles?

If you really are what I think then helping me separate the wheat from the chaff is in your best interests, information is power.

--- Double Post Merged, Nov 17, 2017, Original Post Date: Nov 17, 2017 ---

One of the reasons why my summaries are so long is that I still am seeing many things as suspicious, which may not be so.

You should see some of the graphs I have made (yes, I've made fucking graphs to try and help me in this game... )

 

[Belserion]

I recall asking you, while my arguing with niichan was going on, what your thoughts were, but I don't think you ever answered and instead liked some of niichan's posts and mentioned some other people instead. But that's just from my memory, would have to go check to know for sure.

Strange I recall liking ONE of niichan's posts when you were accusing him and also liking YOUR reply to it. I also recall seeing you ask me what I thought but unfortunately I had to leave. By the time I got back there were already 2 or 3 more pages and niichan had 7 votekills so I figured you weren't waiting with baited breath for my opinion on him since it was obvious he was getting lynched (which now seems to be working against me). Plus I gave my opinion when I votekilled him myself. Your arguments were convincing and honestly i suspected him since day 1 when he came in like the godfather trying to deflect attention from Spriggan.

You asked what I was. I'll tell you what I'm not and that's Mafia.

 

[GrySun]

Well then, time for me to reveal something very interesting. At the start of this day I was PM-notified and I got not one, but two Death Notes in my possession. I was pretty surprised, but I guess both Note-holders took me as trustworthy to give it to? Another interesting thing, just like in the anime each Death Note still has every name ever written on it, so I know whose names were written in the Death Notes. It's possible the rules we never deciphered hinted towards it already, and maybe some other fancy stuff one can do with them.
Let's call them Note D and Note O(based on their first victims... )

Note D: Demonspeed, Vandred

Note O: Organizized, EmptySoul

So here's my thoughts on this. The mafia started with one Note, a townie started with another. I take it the mafia started with Note O, since Orgz is a better kill for mafias than Demon. Meanwhile a townie, especially one who knows about Demon being mafia all the time, probably wrote Demon's name in it hoping for an easy mafia kill. I could be wrong and both started on townies or both on the mafia.

But then the next names are Vandred and EmptySoul, both 2 people we discussed during the day who could be good kills with the Note. Empty died, Vandred however didn't. Why is that? Was the Note holder blocked(by either Prostitute or Escort) or Vandred doc protected(very unlikely tbh)? Either way Vand slipped through our fingers somehow last night. It's common for mafia to have an Escort, and from the hints of last day I think it was obvious that Zasz had the Note, which Vand's mafia probably picked up and blocked Zasz to keep him alive. Got no clue who our other Note holder is/was, or whether they or Zasz is a mafia using the Note instead.

So this allows me to confirm that there indeed are 2 Notes, and both are just as real as the other, both can kill people and I currently hold both of them. If you lynch me we could get rid of them forever, or I try using one/both this night to kill some more targets, then give it to some people I trust.

I considered not saying anything about it, but I think the info about the previous written names is worth it. Especially if one of the previous holders was a mafia they'd know I have the Note anyway and use their Escort to block me, so I would rather be open and try to use them.

So that's another reason why we need to read through all the text, there may be something interesting I can do now that I hold 2 Notes, or maybe something horrible happens which was hinted at.

 

[Marmalade]

So @Arjun @Gryffindor @MarmaladeSky you 3 are the only ones that gave no hints so far. I think Bel and zimb gave hints in the previous page, didn't read those as I was updating the recap.

I did say something about my role, nothing deep though, just before your post :-( Maybe you missed it haha

Edit: typo

 

[Spirit]

This... this is big news

 

[Elusia]

Woah, I'm utterly speechless about this.

 

[Lambu]

This is not good at all, another det gone is starting to make us blind for the upcoming days when they were the most needed. I honestly noticed Kato's slip up on my second summary too. Sorry for lurking a little though, I've been thinking a lot these past hours.

I dont know how there's people discarding the existence of a second mafia right now, when its the most obvious explanation for what has happened, I found that rather suspicious.

First of all, there were 3 kills last night without counting DiMaria's hostkill. If we are to believe the "color truths" a little then a mafia had the note or (if we keep side trusting) one of them. The fact that Kato fucked up like that could only mean one thing: he was a mafia target last night since no townie with a sane mind would have used it on him, more like Vandred or xnut that were higher suspects.

This would leave Erin and Empty as other party targets. There are multiple ways of facing Erin's case:
- Either she was killed by a townie holding the note, unlikely given what I just said before, the note most probably was on the hands of a mafia.
- Killed by a third party. The only way to explain this possibility is that there's a mentor and a mentee between us since a SK would have killed since the start.
- Killed by a second mafia, this would explain way better the odd behaviours and varied supports we've seen through D2.

My theory is Kato was killed by a mafia with the note and Empty was either killed by the same mafia or a townie, Erin would die by second mafia that would be taking advantage of the one sided slaughter the red one is having. This... I dont like it at all, its the DBZ game all over again.

I dont know if I should post my summary now that zimbardo is doing the job, but I'll do it anyway since they hold some of my thoughts on them.

By the way @TSPanda did you mark Erinyes name in full red on purpose? I found odd that Spriggan and niichan were marked differently, with the first letter only marked in red.

 

[GrySun]

I wouldn't take it that personally - you aren't a vegetarian and my fridge is full of some pretty quality stuff.

Eh idk Oh well

Which reminds me, you didn't answer my question.

Other than minimum posting, posting 'nothing posts' or being super reckless, are there any good litmus tests which I can use to separate some of the more closely related roles?

If you really are what I think then helping me separate the wheat from the chaff is in your best interests, information is power.

Not sure I completely understand your question. You mean whether someone can judge from a player's actions/posting what role they have? I have enough experience to guess somewhat-reliably what people have when they give certain hints or play in a certain way. But it's not something I could write a book about, since it's very complicated and depends on the situation. And then sometimes people could play differently just to mask the role they have.

Take Kato for example, he openly said "there's a good reason why he's less active, *wink emote*", so he has something very good for sure. But there's many "very good" roles that would fall in that definition. Kato was det, but from just that one would also guess he was a Doctor or something else.

If I understood the question wrong let me know. I also don't know which role you think I have, but I made a similar mistake before. Someone told me they knew my role due to their role, and I quickly revealed them my role as they said "yeah that's it". But turns out that person was a mafia pretending to be an Apprentice. We lost that game..

 

[Elusia]

Wait, I have a question @GrySun

Since you possess two death notes, is that mean you'll get twice the penalty if you pass it to someone else?

 

[Spirit]

It's day 3. This means that you have to use them both and get 2 penalty votes?

@Lambu makes a good point. The size of this game alone along with game trends dictates that there would indeed be a second mafia. But if that's the case then why haven't any Orange or other coloured mafia died yet? Unless Erin's name being written in full red indicates that she is a part of the other Mafia?

 

[z.5]

There are multiple ways of facing Erin's case:
- Either she was killed by a townie holding the note, unlikely given what I just said before, the note most probably was on the hands of a mafia

Unlikely, unless there is a third note - which would mean at least 4 kills per night [3 notes and 1 Mafia] if not more, with 3rd party roles and the possibility of a 2nd Mafia.

I say this, because if she had been killed by either of the notes you have, her name would be on the list.
So, as long as we trust what you wrote on that summary, I'd say that her being killed by the note isn't really that strong of a possibility.

- Killed by a third party. The only way to explain this possibility is that there's a mentor and a mentee between us since a SK would have killed since the start.
- Killed by a second mafia, this would explain way better the odd behaviours and varied supports we've seen through D2.

I think that these are much more likely.

but I'll do it anyway since they hold some of my thoughts on them.

The more thoughts, the better.

 

[Arjuna]

Wait there are 2 notes?I thought from the description that there is only 1 note.

 

[GrySun]

Wait, I have a question @GrySun

Since you possess two death notes, is that mean you'll get twice the penalty if you pass it to someone else?

It's day 3. This means that you have to use them both and get 2 penalty votes?

@Lambu makes a good point. The size of this game alone along with game trends dictates that there would indeed be a second mafia. But if that's the case then why haven't any Orange or other coloured mafia died yet? Unless Erin's name being written in full red indicates that she is a part of the other Mafia?

No, if I understood correctly I get no penalties from this whatsoever. At least not from the base-13 rules we have. However if I'm given a Note a 3rd time I will get a bunch of penalties for passing a Note a 3rd time... Giving the Note to the wrong person and him giving it back to me could easily kill me with 6+ penalty votes...

 

[MonkeyD-Dragon]

Well then, time for me to reveal something very interesting. At the start of this day I was PM-notified and I got not one, but two Death Notes in my possession. I was pretty surprised, but I guess both Note-holders took me as trustworthy to give it to? Another interesting thing, just like in the anime each Death Note still has every name ever written on it, so I know whose names were written in the Death Notes. It's possible the rules we never deciphered hinted towards it already, and maybe some other fancy stuff one can do with them.
Let's call them Note D and Note O(based on their first victims... )

Note D: Demonspeed, Vandred

Note O: Organizized, EmptySoul

So here's my thoughts on this. The mafia started with one Note, a townie started with another. I take it the mafia started with Note O, since Orgz is a better kill for mafias than Demon. Meanwhile a townie, especially one who knows about Demon being mafia all the time, probably wrote Demon's name in it hoping for an easy mafia kill. I could be wrong and both started on townies or both on the mafia.

But then the next names are Vandred and EmptySoul, both 2 people we discussed during the day who could be good kills with the Note. Empty died, Vandred however didn't. Why is that? Was the Note holder blocked(by either Prostitute or Escort) or Vandred doc protected(very unlikely tbh)? Either way Vand slipped through our fingers somehow last night. It's common for mafia to have an Escort, and from the hints of last day I think it was obvious that Zasz had the Note, which Vand's mafia probably picked up and blocked Zasz to keep him alive. Got no clue who our other Note holder is/was, or whether they or Zasz is a mafia using the Note instead.

So this allows me to confirm that there indeed are 2 Notes, and both are just as real as the other, both can kill people and I currently hold both of them. If you lynch me we could get rid of them forever, or I try using one/both this night to kill some more targets, then give it to some people I trust.

I considered not saying anything about it, but I think the info about the previous written names is worth it. Especially if one of the previous holders was a mafia they'd know I have the Note anyway and use their Escort to block me, so I would rather be open and try to use them.

So that's another reason why we need to read through all the text, there may be something interesting I can do now that I hold 2 Notes, or maybe something horrible happens which was hinted at.

Just a note I want to make, if we go by things, then Note D was probably the one with the townies and Note O was the one with the Mafia. So if a townie targeted Vandred, then it could just be because they found out Vandred is a mafia and targeted him, but the Note holder was blocked which probably saved Vandred from dying tonight. Add to that how he wanted Niichan to be investigated by Dets when it was an obvious slip-up. Niichan would've been given the result of innocent because he's the mafia boss and by this, he saves Niichan. Also looking back at it, in Day 2 both he and Erin(who is confirmed mafia) were the only ones to vote for xnut. This all leads me to believe Vand is mafia.

!votekill Vandred

This... this is big news

 

[z.5]

If I understood the question wrong let me know.

Nah, I guess that your answer was probably the best I could have expected...

I also don't know which role you think I have, but I made a similar mistake before. Someone told me they knew my role due to their role, and I quickly revealed them my role as they said "yeah that's it". But turns out that person was a mafia pretending to be an Apprentice. We lost that game..

Nah, don't be an idiot and do that.

I wasn't asking for hints/confirmation from you.

Rather that I could use what I think your role was to interpret how you answered my question [as in how much you'd try and mislead me].

 

[Elusia]

Wait there are 2 notes?I thought from the description that there is only 1 note.

According to the blue truth, there are apparently "two" notes.

"I definitely handed out more than one Note"
"There's also rules that imply are ways to kill with two Notes"

 

[GrySun]

Wait there are 2 notes?I thought from the description that there is only 1 note.

See, this confirms that we actually know nothing about the system. We gotta analyze things again, and I'm bad at that.

Just a note I want to make, if we go by things, then Note D was probably the one with the townies and Note O was the one with the Mafia. So if a townie targeted Vandred, then it could just be because they found out Vandred is a mafia and targeted him, but the Note holder was blocked which probably saved Vandred from dying tonight. Add to that how he wanted Niichan to be investigated by Dets when it was an obvious slip-up. Niichan would've been given the result of innocent because he's the mafia boss and by this, he saves Niichan. Also looking back at it, in Day 2 both he and Erin(who is confirmed mafia) were the only ones to vote for xnut. This all leads me to believe Vand is mafia.

!votekill Vandred

Yeah I also said Note D starting on a Townie is more likely, since mafia wouldn't kill him so early. Unfortunately the Notes don't say who their previous owners were, but this amount of info already is pretty good.

I noticed myself talking like Morgans a lot this game too