Guys, there is actually something Grf overlooked and which makes more sense than what he said. Grf's theory is that tonight red killed Xad and Orange killed Demon, however if that is the case please answer me this question:
Why would Orange Mafia chose a Spy claim, one that seemed insane as well, over a claimed Det, a claimed Doc, a claimed Prostitute or a claimed Barkeeper? It just doesn't make sense. Killing an insane spy helps nothing if you can get rid of a Det or Doc or a prostitute or even a BK!
What makes far more sense is that Demon killed himself by investigating a PGO who ended up killing him. We all can guess that the red Mafia never used Demon as killer as his ability to find roles is far too useful not to use each night. And a PGO in a 2 Mafia setting with Janitor, Escort and Mafia Det running around makes sense as it is a role that can be either helpful or destructive to the townie side at the same time.
And there is another thing that makes no sense and which Grf has ignored so far: The Drop in Threat level today! It dropped from Dragon to Demon!
We still don't know if the Threat level means highest Mafia member level of any Mafia or if it means the numbers of Mafias in game compared to townies. However since Desin died very early on and we can conclude Demon never killed, else Grf's theory about me knowing two roles wouldn't work at all, and given the thought that Mafias might rise if killing enough townies, then it makes no sense to assume that the highest Mafia in the game is Demon right now, they are either already at God level, given we had an anon vote last day that might be from a God Mafia, or very close to it. So I think the threat level assumes the chances of townies to win against Mafia which is done by comparing the number of townies to the number of mafias left in the game.
Ergo one possibility is that either enough mafias have died for the threat level to drop despite there being some high level mafias or the Orange Mafia was wiped out and the hosts concluded that the threat level has to drop because there is only one small killing party left, like 2 or 3 members at most. After all this is what makes me wonder as well, why did Grf not only seem to know that a Mafia Det is in-game but also the number of Mafias in the teams? He immediately went 4-4, not 3-4 or even 3-5 if the bigger Mafia has a Burden in it to level the field. He could be in a Mafia group with 4 players and just assumes the other one had the same number based on his experience. But if you look at the strong combo of Janitor+Escort, which only was destroyed thanks to Elu being inactive and thus hostkilled after a single night, then it makes sense for hosts to make the orange Mafia smaller and the red Mafia bigger but with weaker roles like Burden and Mafia Member or even that Mafia Member who can fail 50% of his kills. And lets not forget they practically already killed a Red Mafia off by making him Lover with a Townie and we all know how those Love stories end.
So we might have wiped Orange Mafia out already!
If you think about it, with only two dets a Mafia Boss is pretty strong due his Innocent status, the Hosts might have decided to not use a Boss and lower the number of Dets in-game. Same with Docs. Do you guys really believe that in a game with two killing paries, with Janitor and Mafia Poisoner, there is only ONE Doctor and ONE Bodyguard as protectors? There should be at least one more Doc and making him a Limit Breaker to use protection twice makes sense as well if you live long enough to reach Class S and I am already Class A! I am this close to leveling to Class S!
If a PGO reveals his role today you should consider this a possibility of what could have happened tonight.
Besides that I find it curious how Grf ignored my theory of a Strongman killing Xad. It is a one-time use Mafia role which becomes a normal Mafia Member after being used. It would make sense to put it into the bigger red Mafia. My thoughts when I saw Xad dead, till I saw Kato's action from last night god damn it Kato!, was that I had either been Insane Doc (which means I might be responsible for Lambu's death in case we both protected Xad the night he died and I went killer on him) or that my protection action got ignored because of the Strongman action. Ofc now I know my action got blocked by kato which sealed Xad's fate. Just ask Zasz if he has a night action and if he was blocked or not. If he says he got his action through it means mine was blocked by Kato as only players with actions can be blocked.
Grf claims to be bomb defuser but honestly weren't we the ones pushing that role onto him? The whole game he never hinted at that role, all he said was to trust him and that's it. I was the one overthinking him to be Cowboy or Prosecutor because I expected those roles to be in-game and they would align with such ominous hints. There have been lots of games where there was only a single bomb and no bomb defuser because one bomb means only one death and who ends up dying with the bomb ends up being up to luck. Like how Grf made me so pissed that I refused to vote for Erin because he wanted her dead. He came out as bomb defuser after Erin died as bomb and after the day was half-gone and nobody came out and claimed bomb defuser he could easily pick that role for himself. If he is Mafia that is. It could be that he truly is Bomb Defuser and we are just unlucky that he and I are in a feud now trying to up the other believing our own theory more than it is good. We could be both townies, that would be a huge waste of time fighting if that were the case.
Another thing that is possible is Kato lying about being Barkeeper. If he is the Strongman then after watching my protection fail on Xad he could easily claim he blocked me to raise my belief in him being BK (as well as my fury) while he knew my protection was a success but got ignored due his role's action. If you think about it, he only got blocks so far and the first block he had was with Asako who can't be sure if she was really blocked as prostitutes don't get told that. When I faked BK I did the same, remember? Always going redirect and block and being sad how I got no role reveal compared to how Asako got two role reveals in her Lord of the Rings game, one of them being a Mafia Role.
And honestly Grf and Kato aren't the only ones I worry about right now. I worry about Zasz who hasn't claimed a role yet, I worry about the open Death Miller claim from Brandish, I worry about the Hider or Spy claim from Battou (if he were spy I asked him to check me tonight to prove my actions but I guess he isn't one after all), all easy to claim stuff as long as you are ready to believe it. If we take the Number of overall Players and say that it is 100% then Threat Level Demon could mean that 3 Mafias are left in the game, only question is if they are divided into two groups or are one group. And given both Grf and I were blocked, if you were to believe Kato's BK claim and Asako's Prostitute claim and I see no reason to distrust Asako and a few to distrust Kato mainly because he didn't used his role on night 2 because he had "no suspects", we can't be the killers of tonight 's deaths. If there is no PGO claim coming out today then that means neither I nor Grf were responsible for the deaths happening tonight but two other people. And if there is a PGO claim then there is a possibility that either I or Grf are lying. And I can use my action on the PGO to check if he used his shot up or not. I gonna die soon anyway now that I said I reach Class S soon. A Doc with 2 protections is something not even the Mafia with the biggest balls can let live to blame the next day as fake Doc...
Hah... anyway, I gotta vote and then cook something for lunch. This is depressing. Gotta do what I gotta do. Votekill Grf
Just make sure to check who is voting for me and who wants to rather lynch a Doc claim over a Bomb Defuser claim. Honestly all we need to do to prove my theory of only one mafia group left is for Asako to block Grf tonight again and if only one person dies, ding ding, then I was right that there is either only one killing party left with Grf telling the truth about his role or there are two killing parties and Grf is the last one from his group and was unable to kill last night. It would be that easy to check...
