Mag Talk Weekly Shonen Jump [2019] - Discussion and TOC Talk

[savethecat]

With the hype going behind the fact that it's KISHIMOTO, it's a lot easier for this series to fall flat on its face than it is to be a super success.
Boruto survives because of Naruto's name and even that we see how much its sales decreased from when it started.

Platinum End is another prime example. Ohba/Obata duo's name together was like a gold mine after Death Note which was a phenomenon when it released and Bakuman which was also great (IMO better than Death Note but whatever). It felt like anything they made would be great and would sell incredibly well.

I think the difference between Kishimoto and other series is how Huge and ongoing Naruto is.
Naruto is still one of the biggest franchises right now and going strong and caters to all age groups
While Death Note is still huge, it’s maknly huge among adults. Kids today likely aren’t that in to Death Note, and won’t be until their older.
Same with Kenshin. The majority of people keeping up with the new Kenshin series are likely adults who were into the original run.

Given that the majority Obata/Ohba fans are likely adults or kids in their late teens they’ll be more critical of the series if it doesn’t meet the expectations they had from the duo.

Naruto’s current fanbase can range anywhere between ages 6 to mid 30s. Even if the older generations are critical of the series, you have a flock of younger people who are just excited that the creator of Naruto is making it, and don’t care or notic the flaws.
Hell, I remember being super into 666 Satan as a 13/14 year old solely based on the fact that Kishimoto’s brother made it.

Spoiler

also if you’re a hardcore fan of Naruto as an adult, and dedicatedly kept up with it for its entire run, you’re likely not going to be nearly as critical to writing flaws as someone who’s a hardcore Death Note fan to begin with

I’m not saying it’s impossible for it to fail. However I think it’ll have to be REALLY bad for it to fail. Like so bad that even kids don’t want to keep up with it

 

[Unok]

Mashima had a failed manga after Rave Master as well so clearly he isn't immune either.

Do you mean Monster Soul? A 3 chapter monthly series released in attempt to keep Comic BomBom alive, while he was preparing for his new series (Fairy Tail). They obviously didn't wanted their successful author to move from main magazine to a monthly unpopular magazine, but wanted his name to bring some attention to the magazine. The series was obviously meant to be short and it wasn't cancelled. Yeah, it didn't sell like crazy, but it wasn't meant to. A year later, he did 3 more chapters for Monster Soul, again as attempt to save BomBom. If it was a failure, they wouldn't do "2nd stage" for the manga, again it was obviously meant to be short. But that didn't save BomBom, so they started Rival and he again did another monthly series there to promote the magazine.

 

[SharkBait]

Writer name is only enough to get people to check something out or buy v1, but if Samurai's are just not interesting, or the art style is unappealing, then no matter how good writing is, it is hard for people to stick with it.

too bad theres no John Grishams or Terry Brooks of manga, who can pump out quality story after story and get people to loyally follow them for decades.

 

[Caiops]

Just a few days until the anime of The Promised Neverland starts, lets predict the boost:

+200k per volume.

 

[Franz]

We've given you plenty of examples of vetearn author's of hugely popular series who didn't succeed with future works so please quit regurgitating "MUH KISHIMOTO" because it's not helping your case.

You can not judge a series not yet out ... the fanbase that Kishimoto has is huge and in this case also counts the western market with big gains, I do not think it will have big problems

--- Double Post Merged, Jan 4, 2019, Original Post Date: Jan 4, 2019 ---

Not to mention, Kishimoto could easily be a one trick pony. The quality of the series could definitely lessen the impact of any level of promotion and I'm not the biggest believer in Kishimoto's writing skills in the first place.
I consider him Tabata tier.

So good?

:P

In any case, Kishimoto has always shown that he knows how to make it out when he wants, the first 200 chapters of Naruto are excellent in every respect.

Do not create a manga of such a long duration and with such a huge fan base if you do not have the minimum capacity

 

[Mankichi Togawa]

One question: how is Boruto selling? I mean, it is surviving well while I also think it it having very little success, but I can be mistaken.

 

[101nemesis]

I think the difference between Kishimoto and other series is how Huge and ongoing Naruto is.
Naruto is still one of the biggest franchises right now and going strong and caters to all age groups
While Death Note is still huge, it’s maknly huge among adults. Kids today likely aren’t that in to Death Note, and won’t be until their older.
Same with Kenshin. The majority of people keeping up with the new Kenshin series are likely adults who were into the original run.

Given that the majority Obata/Ohba fans are likely adults or kids in their late teens they’ll be more critical of the series if it doesn’t meet the expectations they had from the duo.

Naruto’s current fanbase can range anywhere between ages 6 to mid 30s. Even if the older generations are critical of the series, you have a flock of younger people who are just excited that the creator of Naruto is making it, and don’t care or notic the flaws.
Hell, I remember being super into 666 Satan as a 13/14 year old solely based on the fact that Kishimoto’s brother made it.

Spoiler

also if you’re a hardcore fan of Naruto as an adult, and dedicatedly kept up with it for its entire run, you’re likely not going to be nearly as critical to writing flaws as someone who’s a hardcore Death Note fan to begin with

I’m not saying it’s impossible for it to fail. However I think it’ll have to be REALLY bad for it to fail. Like so bad that even kids don’t want to keep up with it

This literally only works if you're Kishimoto's fan. The majority would always be the fans of the series and not the mangaka. There are so many out there who know Naruto and don't know who its by.

Like @SharkBait said, the popularity of someone's previous work would be enough to get most of those fans to try out the new series and maybe purchase the first volume. But it certainly won't be enough to get people to stay if it doesn't live up to the expectations these readers have. That's the problem with hype especially when it stems from the popularity of a previous work. The expectations are very linear and almost impossible to meet.

Most importantly, having your new work survive just because of the popularity of your previous work is such a depressing thought and definitely not something Kishimoto would want as a creator.

 

[savethecat]

This literally only works if you're Kishimoto's fan. The majority would always be the fans of the series and not the mangaka. There are so many out there who know Naruto and don't know who its by.

Like @SharkBait said, the popularity of someone's previous work would be enough to get most of those fans to try out the new series and maybe purchase the first volume. But it certainly won't be enough to get people to stay if it doesn't live up to the expectations these readers have. That's the problem with hype especially when it stems from the popularity of a previous work. The expectations are very linear and almost impossible to meet.

Most importantly, having your new work survive just because of the popularity of your previous work is such a depressing thought and definitely not something Kishimoto would want as a creator.

Well like I said. If it’s REALLY bad I don’t think it’ll survive. But that’s only if it’s just that bad.


My initial points on why I think it’ll survive wasn’t just based on it being “from the creator of Naruto”.
Jump is promoting the series significantly ahead of time. I don’t recall them ever doing that before, even for veterans. So I’d imagine they’re pretty confident in the series’ quality. So I highly doubt it’ll be an absolute train wreck.

And I think you’re under estimating how much a “From Creator The Creator Of Naruto” effects younger readers.
Yes, everyone in this forum won’t read something solely because Kishimoto made it.
But young ppl, even if they don’t know Kishimoto by name, will see “NARUTO!” And be excited just on that. Jump will definitely promote as “From The Creator Of Naruto”. Not “From Mashashi Kishimoto”. Children will often like mediocre things based on it having a connection to something they already like. So even if the series is just you run of the mill average Shonen, it’ll still likely get by based on children alone.

 

[SharkBait]

love how Promised Neverland went from "amazon prime exclusive" to now on every western anime streaming service in america.

 

[savethecat]

love how Promised Neverland went from "amazon prime exclusive" to now on every western anime streaming service in america.

I believe it’s amazon prime exclusive in Japan

 

[crazymaya]

Aniplex wasn't going to let a show so perfect for the western audience stay as Prime exclusive.

 

[Nemesis]

Aniplex wasn't going to let a show so perfect for the western audience stay as Prime exclusive.

I think the contract just ended with Amazon and they didn't renew it.

 

[Jovan]

One question: how is Boruto selling? I mean, it is surviving well while I also think it it having very little success, but I can be mistaken.

Boruto suffers a bit from being a monthly manga which makes people dropping it. Constantly dropping but still doing relatively well compared to the most of WSJ. Dunno how much Naruto sold to compare, but guessing it is not even close. I would consider permanently moving to a Weekly format to be honest.
4 week sales per book-rank.net
Volume 1 357,748
Volume 2 288,535
Volume 3 280,200
Volume 4 239,629
Volume 5 219,529
Volume 6 198,446

 

[tirakai]

Naruto I think usually sold about 1 million before dropping off the charts I think. I'm too lazy to go back and look though.

 

[101nemesis]

Well like I said. If it’s REALLY bad I don’t think it’ll survive. But that’s only if it’s just that bad.


My initial points on why I think it’ll survive wasn’t just based on it being “from the creator of Naruto”.
Jump is promoting the series significantly ahead of time. I don’t recall them ever doing that before, even for veterans. So I’d imagine they’re pretty confident in the series’ quality. So I highly doubt it’ll be an absolute train wreck.

And I think you’re under estimating how much a “From Creator The Creator Of Naruto” effects younger readers.
Yes, everyone in this forum won’t read something solely because Kishimoto made it.
But young ppl, even if they don’t know Kishimoto by name, will see “NARUTO!” And be excited just on that. Jump will definitely promote as “From The Creator Of Naruto”. Not “From Mashashi Kishimoto”. Children will often like mediocre things based on it having a connection to something they already like. So even if the series is just you run of the mill average Shonen, it’ll still likely get by based on children alone.

Of course WSJ will promote the heck out of it. It's by the creator of Naruto.
I just think you're underestimating how hard it is to follow up on the success of levels such as Naruto. There would be more wiggle room for quality dip if these fans were fans of Kishimoto and not Naruto. They'd be more forgiving then because they are fans of the author and not just his previous work meaning they'd be okay with dip in quality. But since Naruto is what mostly everyone is going to base their preconceived expectations on, if it doesn't meet the level they have in their mind, its not going to be a huge success. It'll still sell a certain amount since, like you said, some would be okay with mediocre quality. But it wouldn't be close to being anything remarkable.
If kishimoto's follow up to naruto does not sell more than 400-500k a volume at its peak, its not a great follow up.

And also I think you're probably underestimating the mindset of youngsters in 2019.

 

[Jovan]

Naruto I think usually sold about 1 million before dropping off the charts I think. I'm too lazy to go back and look though.

Eek. I am pretty confused at why is Boruto not a Weekly manga? I think it is the only way to save the sales besides doing a timeskip a la Shippuden.

 

[101nemesis]

Boruto suffers a bit from being a monthly manga which makes people dropping it. Constantly dropping but still doing relatively well compared to the most of WSJ. Dunno how much Naruto sold to compare, but guessing it is not even close. I would consider permanently moving to a Weekly format to be honest.
4 week sales per book-rank.net
Volume 1 357,748
Volume 2 288,535
Volume 3 280,200
Volume 4 239,629
Volume 5 219,529
Volume 6 198,446

It's really nothing to do with monthly serialization but the fading of the naruto cushion Boruto had. People slowly realize, they don't care enough to keep supporting.
Naruto sold a million before going off charts. Lowest towards the last 10 volumes was a couple of volumes selling in 950k before going of chart. I remember people being surprised with that drop in forums.

 

[Jovan]

It's really nothing to do with monthly serialization but the fading of the naruto cushion Boruto had. People slowly realize, they don't care enough to keep supporting.
Naruto sold a million before going off charts. Lowest towards the last 10 volumes was a couple of volumes selling in 950k before going of chart. I remember people being surprised with that drop in forums.

Possible. Like I said, they may try to do a teen timeskip earlier than they may have thought. Sales are still more than fine, and I am guessing it is earning a lot through merchandise (anime is also one of the more watched on TV Tokyo I read). But they have to avoid losing interest.

Also saw Samurai 8 comment about 400k-500k+ sales. That is tough to do nowadays, only 4 regular WSJ manga (so no Hunter x Hunter) are able to pull it off: Neverland, One Piece, My Hero Academia and Haikyuu!

 

[101nemesis]

Possible. Like I said, they may try to do a teen timeskip earlier than they may have thought. Sales are still more than fine, and I am guessing it is earning a lot through merchandise (anime is also one of the more watched on TV Tokyo I read). But they have to avoid losing interest.

Also saw Samurai 8 comment about 400k-500k+ sales. That is tough to do nowadays, only 4 regular WSJ manga (so no Hunter x Hunter) are able to pull it off: Neverland, One Piece, My Hero Academia and Haikyuu!

Time skips don't naturally increase interest, though. Not until it fits well with the story and naturally develops the plot for something more interesting. The Boruto manga has dropped quite considerably. If this was a weekly manga, it'd have been cancelled by now with the level of drop. But the "Naruto" cushion saves it. That said, if it keeps dropping, you can bet WSJ will stop it.

400-500k is very achievable for a well done series in WSJ, let alone by the author of a previously well known naruto level manga. If anything, that's setting the bar low for kishimoto's follow up. That's the bare minimum he needs to get, IMO, for the follow up to be considered good.

 

[savethecat]

Of course WSJ will promote the heck out of it. It's by the creator of Naruto.
I just think you're underestimating how hard it is to follow up on the success of levels such as Naruto. There would be more wiggle room for quality dip if these fans were fans of Kishimoto and not Naruto. They'd be more forgiving then because they are fans of the author and not just his previous work meaning they'd be okay with dip in quality. But since Naruto is what mostly everyone is going to base their preconceived expectations on, if it doesn't meet the level they have in their mind, its not going to be a huge success. It'll still sell a certain amount since, like you said, some would be okay with mediocre quality. But it wouldn't be close to being anything remarkable.
If kishimoto's follow up to naruto does not sell more than 400-500k a volume at its peak, its not a great follow up.

And also I think you're probably underestimating the mindset of youngsters in 2019.

Unless the series is remarkably bad I doubt kids and young teens will be hyper critical off it.
Yes Jump will promote one of their big creators returning, but it’s not normal for us to see artwork, titles, trailers, and release dates for a manga that’s months away.
Obviously they’re going to have high expectations for a past veteran, but seems like they’re seriously banking on this being big.

And I would say 500K 1st Volumes is too big expections for anyone in 2019. Just because physical sales aren’t the same as they were when Naruto was at its peak.