Games Mafia Game 73 - The Black Card Initiative - Postgame - Missing Night Actions

Asako · Aug 7, 2019

Erinyes said:
Recap so far

Please let me know if i missed something, ill fix it Asap.

Hints/claims

1. Gnut as Galatea
2. Erinyes as Irene
3. Demonspeed as Roxanne -
4. Holt as Miata
5. ~~GrySun as Luciela ->~~ ~~time bomb killed on N~~2
6. Seraph as Helen
~~7. CrescentJinx as Priscilla ->~~time bomb lynched on Day~~1~~
8. Son of Daws as Deneve
9. Lady PomPom as Miria -
10. ~~MarmaladeSky as Rubel -> serial killer + hider lynched on D~~2
11. Hardy as Rigaldo
12. ~~Farfalla as Teresa - mafia boss - Assassin killed on N~~2
13. James Rye as Dietrich
14. Gryffindor as Flora
15. Tatasugoi as Alicia
16. Lambu as Tabitha
17. Zasz as Raki
18. Hakuteiken as Riful
19. DigitalDude as Agatha -> dont want to be defused
20. Takuan as Easley -
21. Asako as Clare- got a main role and a temporary role, bith are passive
22. ~~Desin24 as Ophelia Time bomb, killed on N~~1
23. Vandred as Cassandra

N0 Actions

Digital targetted ->Asako got guilty
Erin -> Demon got innocent
Haku -> gry got guilty
Demon-boy -> seraph got guilty
Asa-chan -> Crescent got guilty
Gnut -> hardy got guilty
gry-> Vandred got guilty
farf-chan Gryff got guilty
Pompom-chan -> Asako - got guilty
Marma-chan -> zasz and got guilty
James -> Zasz and got innocent
Lambu-> james and got innocent
crescent -> SonofD got guilty
gryff-> desin got guilty
Taku-> seraph got guilty
Holt-> Crescent got innocent
van -> demon got guilty
zasz -> erin' got guilty
SoD-> Gnut got innocent
Desin -> Erin' got guilty
Seraph-> Farf got innocent
Tata-chan -> taku got guilty

N1 Actions :

Holt defused Popom -> response
Asako defused demon -> new role
zasz defused demon no response
Seraph defused gryff -> no response
Son-boy defused Marm -> no response
Erin defused demon -> no response
gnut defused Hardy -> no response

N2 Actions :

Holt defused Pompom--> no response
Zasz defused tata-chan -> got new role
Erin defused -> pompom -> no response
seraph defused DD-> no response

Temp roles :

Defusers

Gnut
Erin'
Taku
Asako
Zasz
Farf-chan
gryff
holt
J rye
seraph
SonofDawn
Vand

Time bombs

Haku
desin
Crescent-chan
Demon-boy
Hardy
Pompom-chan
~~Marma-chan~~
Digi-boy
Tata-chan
~~gry sun~~

GrySun said:
Here‘s round 2 of my Conan episode of trying to crack the meaning behind our Det results.

I noticed a couple of things:

1. Holt(blue text Defuser) got Innocent on Crescent(Confirmed Townie TB). Gnut(blue text Defuser) got Guilty on Hardy(claiming Townie TB).
Now tell me, why would Gnut and Holt, who are both blue TBs who both investigated 2 townie TBs get different results, if both them and their targets are the same?

Because Hardy is mafia. If not then this whole system makes no sense and can go into the trash.
I‘m open for other people‘s thoughts on this.

2. Crescent(Confirmed Town TB) got Guilty on SonOfDaws(unknown role?); desin24(Confirmed Mafia TB) got Guilty on Erin(Claming Town Defuser).

Now the question is, would a town and mafia TBs get the same result on a townie or not? If yes then Daws must be a Town Defuser for them both to be town. If not then one of them is lying if Daws is also claiming Defuser, and it could fit if he claims TB. Good to keep in mind.

--- Double Post Merged, Aug 4, 2019, Original Post Date: Aug 4, 2019 ---

EDIT: Daws claimed Defuser. So would a mafia and town TBs get the same result on two townie Defusers?

I think this will help us a lot now that we have enough info

Hakuteiken · Aug 7, 2019

Takuan said:
Are you kidding me? xD

For future reference, the scientific term for your argument against me is "personal incredulity".

Seraph · Aug 7, 2019

The beauty of this game :lambirb

Takuan · Aug 7, 2019

Hakuteiken said:
For future reference, the scientific term for your argument against me is "personal incredulity".

Your only defense against my argument consists of assuming two mafias randomly decided to create a fake story against a townie which would result in no significant gain for them; or assuming there's an escort who used his target's result to try to lynch a townie, which again, would be unnecessarily risky.

I'm dropping the matter anyway. I'll let people judge by themselves, i don't have anything to add.

Seraph · Aug 7, 2019

@Vandred have you unlocked your potential, Vandred?

Vandred · Aug 7, 2019

Takuan said:
Are you kidding me? xD

Isn't it? It's like someone coming out and claiming they tried to defuse DD on N2 but got nothing. That doesn't tell us anything definitive. Haku also claimed TB on D1, and if I'd been mafia, I'd have defused someone like him. DD first though :fan

And by that line of reasoning, if he dies as townie, that doesn't tell us anything about you or Seraph either. Meanwhile we have someone like Hardy who claimed he needed to "kill" two non-townies before N5 (a suspicious enough condition on its own) and has done his best to avoid doing exactly that until now... You know, just saying.

Or even Asako who forgot about mentioning that her condition cleared Demon, for instance. What I mean is that it's not like we don't have others who aren't 100% clean, it's just you two who are getting tunnel vision on Haku because it concerns you directly (if you're townies, of course). I don't know if he's being honest, but I don't see how he should become number one lynch candidate when we got other equally, if not more, sketchy characters, two days ahead, almost no one having brought forward results which they could have, and you're acting like Haku's gotta die right now no matter what.

--- Double Post Merged, Aug 7, 2019, Original Post Date: Aug 7, 2019 ---

Seraph said:
@Vandred have you unlocked your potential, Vandred?

Have I?

Seraph · Aug 7, 2019

Vandred said:
Isn't it? It's like someone coming out and claiming they tried to defuse DD on N2 but got nothing. That doesn't tell us anything definitive. Haku also claimed TB on D1, and if I'd been mafia, I'd have defused someone like him. DD first though

And by that line of reasoning, if he dies as townie, that doesn't tell us anything about you or Seraph either. Meanwhile we have someone like Hardy who claimed he needed to "kill" two non-townies before N5 (a suspicious enough condition on its own) and has done his best to avoid doing exactly that until now... You know, just saying.

Or even Asako who forgot about mentioning that her condition cleared Demon, for instance. What I mean is that it's not like we don't have others who aren't 100% clean, it's just you two who are getting tunnel vision on Haku because it concerns you directly (if you're townies, of course). I don't know if he's being honest, but I don't see how he should become number one lynch candidate when we got other equally, if not more, sketchy characters, two days ahead, almost no one having brought forward results which they could have, and you're acting like Haku's gotta die right now no matter what.

--- Double Post Merged, Aug 7, 2019, Original Post Date: Aug 7, 2019 ---

Have I?

I'm just gonna guess that you have. :lambirb

And yeah, Haku should be in consideration for lynch. Both me and Taku won't be able to have a quiet good night's rest with these suspicions and fears plaguing us, besides, for some reason I think either of us is gonna bite it if we don't...

Hakuteiken · Aug 7, 2019

Takuan said:
Your only defense against my argument consists of assuming two mafias randomly decided to create a fake story against a townie which would result in no significant gain for them; or assuming there's an escort who used his target's result to try to lynch a townie, which again, would be unnecessarily risky.

I'm dropping the matter anyway. I'll let people judge by themselves, i don't have anything to add.

Mafia's gains are always incremental until it's the very end game. Their actions are also often stuff people dismiss as "not a significant win" for Mafia.

Surely one of the arguments I'm presenting here cannot be true, right? Dismissing arguments due to their so-called-impossible nature is what is called personal incredulity.

Vandred said:
I don't know if he's being honest, but I don't see how he should become number one lynch candidate when we got other equally, if not more, sketchy characters, two days ahead, almost no one having brought forward results which they could have, and you're acting like Haku's gotta die right now no matter what.

Because some people have allergy towards foresight and they just want to focus on what's right in front of their noses. I learn it the hard way any time I try to play this game.

Asako · Aug 7, 2019

So seeing N0 result (I'm coloring this so it's easier on my eyes as I think and for the others, for defusers the name will be bold for TB there will be a line under)

Digital targetted ->Asako got guilty
Erin -> Demon got innocent
Haku -> grysun got guilty
Demon-boy -> seraph got guilty
Asa-chan -> Crescent got guilty
Gnut -> hardy got guilty
grySun -> Vandred got guilty
farf-chan Gryff got guilty
Pompom-chan -> Asako - got guilty
Marma-chan -> zasz and got guilty
James -> Zasz and got innocent
Lambu-> james and got innocent
crescent -> SonofD got guilty
gryff-> desin got guilty
Taku-> seraph got guilty
Holt-> Crescent got innocent
van -> demon got guilty
zasz -> erin' got guilty
SoD-> Gnut got innocent
Desin -> Erin' got guilty
Seraph-> Farf got innocent
Tata-chan -> taku got guilty

Wait @Lambu you yet to say what you are or did erin list not put it in

--- Double Post Merged, Aug 7, 2019, Original Post Date: Aug 7, 2019 ---

And marma didn't say what she is ?

Takuan · Aug 7, 2019

Vandred said:
Isn't it? It's like someone coming out and claiming they tried to defuse DD on N2 but got nothing. That doesn't tell us anything definitive. Haku also claimed TB on D1, and if I'd been mafia, I'd have defused someone like him. DD first though

And by that line of reasoning, if he dies as townie, that doesn't tell us anything about you or Seraph either. Meanwhile we have someone like Hardy who claimed he needed to "kill" two non-townies before N5 (a suspicious enough condition on its own) and has done his best to avoid doing exactly that until now... You know, just saying.

Or even Asako who forgot about mentioning that her condition cleared Demon, for instance. What I mean is that it's not like we don't have others who aren't 100% clean, it's just you two who are getting tunnel vision on Haku because it concerns you directly (if you're townies, of course). I don't know if he's being honest, but I don't see how he should become number one lynch candidate when we got other equally, if not more, sketchy characters, two days ahead, almost no one having brought forward results which they could have, and you're acting like Haku's gotta die right now no matter what.

I agree abut Hardy, i forgot about that condition he claimed. Asako though, if i recall correctly, she did mention that her condition cleared Demon. Didn't she mention that like immediately?

I don't understand what you're saying. Only Hardy has a case as solid as Haku's, so of course for me Haku is the number one lynch candidate.
That doesn't tell us anything definitive, but it's still SOMETHING. All Haku did last phase when suspicion grew towards him was, well, not posting anything, lurking in the thread for a while and saving himself at the last minute. He said earlier that he didn't have time to read and only came back to save himself, who wouldn't. Well, i'm not buying that he just opened the tab for an hour, didn't read anything, and conveniently came back at the very last minute to save him and taunted everyone that he was surviving.

Anyway, of course i tunnel vision. It's not like i want him to die immediately, i wanted him dead even before that lol last phase. Yet people tried to follow a bandwaggon on Erin, a bandwaggon launched by a mafia it turned out. Yeah, i prefer voting Haku for sure, compared to shooting in the dark on someone else. My role got something against him, and that is also kinda confirmed by another player. That is enough for me. And again, i don't think anyone else got a more serious case than him, bar maybe Hardy. Feel free to change my mind, feel free to pressure Hardy, lead stuff. For now i got results on Haku and his defense is lackluster at best.

Seraph · Aug 7, 2019

Hakuteiken said:
Mafia's gains are always incremental until it's the very end game. Their actions are also often stuff people dismiss as "not a significant win" for Mafia.

Surely one of the arguments I'm presenting here cannot be true, right? Dismissing arguments due to their so-called-impossible nature is what is called personal incredulity.

Because some people have allergy towards foresight and they just want to focus on what's right in front of their noses. I learn it the hard way any time I try to play this game.

Nobodies saying it's impossible, just unlikely. Besides, we've been played by you in this manner in a previous game so let's not act like a little skepsis is too much to bear. We sort of have to rely on anything we got in this game, little or much but we gotta. You're fine with dying so there's that too.

Asako · Aug 7, 2019

Oh nvm just remembered why she got killed, she was a TB

Demonspeed · Aug 7, 2019

LOL I forgot Lambu was in this game.

Copy Panda · Aug 7, 2019

Lambu is currently going through personal real life issues. Family stuff is more important than a game in the end

Takuan · Aug 7, 2019

Speaking about Hardy, for what it's worth, i targetted him last night. And i didn't get a result.
So either i used my defusing on Haku N2 and couldn't defuse anymore; or i still could but Hardy had already been defused (since it was N3 it's possible); or i used it succesfully, in which case... Same stuff as with Haku.
Or more stuff that i didnt think about, i have no idea. Do what you will with this information, in any case i got to go now. I'll be back in like, 6-7 hours or so.

Hardy · Aug 7, 2019

@James Rye I believe your claim mostly because I would had done the same, lol, surprised only you did it.

Lady pompom said:
Red mafia is all alive, huh... I wonder how many they are.

And Holt unlocked his potential after all.

Wdym all alive?

Demonspeed said:
I am not really certain that there are two Mafias. Especially with these double roles.

It doesn't make sense that a mafia died in night 1 if there isn't another mafia team.

Erinyes said:
Oh i need to catch up everything back, but now i see why gryff was trying so badly to make me lynch, it was as if he was trying to save Holt.

Why would he want holt alive (at all) over you?

Lady pompom said:
So far, I would be more suspicious of Hardy, Seraph and maybe Haku.

I think Hardy’s mafia killed Gry because of science.

Yeah that would make me look very nice, great move of mine, killing the guy that was on my ass.

Btw if Haku dies and is shown as mafia, it will look awful for you as you saved him yesterday.

Vandred said:
@Hardy, did you seriously throw away the chance of unlocking your fantastic role with the very safe lynch of Holt yesterday by locking on someone else on the off-chance of getting a triple lynch?

Should have at least been consistent with your plays. I say your lynch is long overdue...

Honestly, I fucking gave up on it. Gotta get 2 mafias and Im not even sure of my bomb situation, in theory im defused as greg got his mentor role. I really think Im Jesus which is hardly all that valuable all things considered. I tried lynching Holt for like 2 days in a row and people just kept choosing someone else. In the end I tried to make the best for the town, not my own.

--- Double Post Merged, Aug 7, 2019, Original Post Date: Aug 7, 2019 ---

Vandred said:
Meanwhile we have someone like Hardy who claimed he needed to "kill" two non-townies before N5 (a suspicious enough condition on its own) and has done his best to avoid doing exactly that until now... You know, just saying.

Trying my best to avoid killing anti-towns = voting only for third parties and Haku who I strongly believe is mafia. Gotcha. Add salt to the wound.

Asako · Aug 7, 2019

If we follow the list
Where it seem townie gets guilty on townie and townie gets innocent on scum and vice versa

The questionable ones are zasz erin hardy and maybe lambu
And also if it's like that, it means haku is townie and not mafia, taku seraph, we need to know that there also the possibly that scum defused haku before you

Did you try at night to defuse anyone ?

Hmm I'm thinking if there an other meaning to N0, I mean 3 scums left ? Maybe 4 ?

Hardy · Aug 7, 2019

Asako said:
If we follow the list
Where it seem townie gets guilty on townie and townie gets innocent on scum and vice versa

The questionable ones are zasz erin hardy and maybe lambu
And also if it's like that, it means haku is townie and not mafia, taku seraph, we need to know that there also the possibly that scum defused haku before you

Did you try at night to defuse anyone ?

Hmm I'm thinking if there an other meaning to N0, I mean 3 scums left ? Maybe 4 ?

Actually, if not Erin then Demon and it opens up a big mess.

Hakuteiken · Aug 7, 2019

Seraph said:
Nobodies saying it's impossible, just unlikely. Besides, we've been played by you in this manner in a previous game so let's not act like a little skepsis is too much to bear. We sort of have to rely on anything we got in this game, little or much but we gotta. You're fine with dying so there's that too.

Have you been played now? I don't even remember. Not that it matters.
By the way, dismissing something as unlikely is not a part of skepticism, nor it belongs to the ways of a skeptic. Again, not that it matters, as I'm just putting a semantic emphasis on this, nothing more.
Anyways, enough is enough. I already talked more than I wanted to. Need no more of this game at this point, as it has been a thoroughly anti-fun experience due to reasons.

Vote Kill Takuan

I will check back at the end of the day phase to see if I can change away from my avatar. Have fun.