Mag Talk Weekly Shonen Jump [2019] - Discussion and TOC Talk

[NeeNeen]

And we're back! Hallelujah.

Anyway, dunno if anyone cares, but Dear Sacchan has officially bombed. Looking on Amazon, it's presale ranking is in the 40000s, at a point where series selling 10-30k are in the 3000 range.

Good. Now let's see how long it takes before they end it.

(I actually have no idea how long bombing series are allowed to continue on Jump+.)

On the other side, the position of pre-orders for Samurai 8 Volumue 1 is much better than the postion of pre-orders for Yui Kamio Volume 1. So, the sales will be likely better too.

That's setting the bar pretty low, isn't it? It would be a total embarrassment if Kishimoto couldn't do better than a near-instant flop.

Tbh, at this point I think the anime will only stall the decline. The sales won't go back up again, IMO

Isn't this pretty common for long-running series that stay on the same topic? I can sort of see why people would get bored after the tenth game.

 

[Shinuki no Reborn]

since kingdom have no more volume, and kny 17 coming out soon(next week), with the current gap and momentum, kny will overtake kingdom for oricon YTD next week. it need the backlogs to drop like a rock for that to not happen

--- Double Post Merged, Oct 2, 2019, Original Post Date: Oct 2, 2019 ---

yuuna 3.5m

monesan 300k

adding from yesterday, no more new numbers from other wraparounds, but tpn 16 wraparound isn't released yet (probably the live action)

I said few months ago how some people here were underestimating Yaiba's big boost (and it wasn't even as big as it is now) and now will probably beat even Kingdom, how about that? :P

 

[shoyoboyo]

I for one can't wait! It's not everyday you get to talk about the return of someone like Kishimoto.

It's been talked about every day for the past 4 months lol

 

[Konja9]

I find it almost impressive how poorly Yui Kamio has done. You'd think Shiibashi would have some readers, but it seems even that has gotten him nothing.

Well, Yui Kamio isn't his manga after Nurarihyon No Mago. Illegal Rare would be this.

Illegal Rare sold better at first, but it wasn't so popular. It was axed.

 

[Ctkk]

It's been talked about every day for the past 4 months lol

But now we can actually talk about it in the context of reality instead of whatever narrative people are trying to spin that day!

 

[NeeNeen]

Btw, can someone tell how Moonland and Curtain's up, I'm off are doing?

Both of them are pretty low on M+, but I really like them, so I hope the sales are good enough to keep them going...

 

[Vizard]

Spoiler: October 4 Manga Cover

Gotouge Koyoharu Tanhenshuu

Yuragi-sou no Yuuna-san #18

Black Clover #22

Hinomaru Zumou #27

BORUTO -NARUTO NEXT GENERATIONS- #9

Captain Tsubasa KIDS DREAM #2

Black Clover Gaiden: Quartet Knights #3

2.5 Jigen no Yuuwaku #1

Sacchan, Boku wa. #1

Koisuru One Piece #3

Arata Primal #3

Psycho Against #4

Orewo Sukinano ha Omae dake kayo #4

Hoshino no Ouji-sama. #5

Hidarikiki no Eren #9

 

[Rain Spectre]

Final Soma volume has commemorative illustrations from Oda, Horikoshi, Tabata and Miura.

 

[Jovan]

Btw, can someone tell how Moonland and Curtain's up, I'm off are doing?

Both of them are pretty low on M+, but I really like them, so I hope the sales are good enough to keep them going...

Both are flops sales wise, and neither are doing well in chapter views in the Jump+ Japanese app either from what I remember. Abyss Rage and Dorei Yuugi are good examples of horrible sales but great chapter app views, but here that isn't the case. I expect both of those to end soonish.

In fact, seeing what happened in the last Moon Land chapter, I won't be surprised if it's done in 1 or 2 weeks.

 

[NeeNeen]

Both are flops sales wise, and neither are doing well in chapter views in the Jump+ Japanese app either from what I remember. Abyss Rage and Dorei Yuugi are good examples of horrible sales but great chapter app views, but here that isn't the case. I expect both of those to end soonish.

In fact, seeing what happened in the last Moon Land chapter, I won't be surprised if it's done in 1 or 2 weeks.

Ah. I was afraid of that.

But at least it looks like Curtain's Up will be able to wrap up the story pretty nicely.

 

[Shinuki no Reborn]

But now we can actually talk about it in the context of reality instead of whatever narrative people are trying to spin that day!

Problem is, while i expect people here to be rational about it, you will have some pretty delusional expectations or some people even taking advantage of it to claim the manga is a failure even if sell over 100k in the top 50, i just answered one follower right now on my Twitter asking about Samurai 8 print numbers and saying he read somewhere about 1 million copies lol

 

[Rain Spectre]

Problem is, while i expect people here to be rational about it, you will have some pretty delusional expectations or some people even taking advantage of it to claim the manga is a failure even if sell over 100k in the top 50, i just answered one follower right now on my Twitter asking about Samurai 8 print numbers and saying he read somewhere about 1 million copies lol

Well, the issue there is simple, what exactly is the "expected" sales numbers for S8? Different answers can be given based on different factors.

 

[supercow297]

OP had sold 5 million back when the hafl-yearly numbers dropped and then volume 92 dropped back in July and added another 2 million. Volume 93 is probably gonna add another 2 million, which will leave OP with more than 9 million copies. KNY is around 7 million now, It would have to sell another 2 million until the end of the fiscal year, which is in a month and a half. KNY might come close, with like a 500k difference, but I don't think it will top OP. It'll be above Kingdom for sure, though.

Holy shit. Say KNY sells 600k for new volumes. Then the Gap is down to 1.4 mil. With 17 volumes, each volume only needs another 80k in backlog.
In this week KNY sold 45k per volume in backlog, another 80 in two months is definitely doable imo.
Just this week the backlog was what, like 640k? 1400k in two months I think is possible
If KNY takes first place
I'm gonna jizz diamonds

 

[Ryuusei]

Holy shit. Say KNY sells 600k for new volumes. Then the Gap is down to 1.4 mil. With 17 volumes, each volume only needs another 80k in backlog.
In this week KNY sold 45k per volume in backlog, another 80 in two months is definitely doable imo.
Just this week the backlog was what, like 640k? 1400k in two months I think is possible
If KNY takes first place
I'm gonna jizz diamonds

I have almost no doubt that volume 17 will sell 600k in a month. It will at least be close to that figure. Also, the backlog was 692k this last week and it's dominating Shoseki's daily rankings since Sunday. The backlog boost continues to be strong, but we have to see how big it will be in like 3 or 4 weeks.

A scenario where OP gets outsold in a fiscal year before the series comes to an end seems so unreal. If it happens this year, it would history being made.

 

[101nemesis]

Isn't this pretty common for long-running series that stay on the same topic? I can sort of see why people would get bored after the tenth game.

It happens with everything tbh. It's just over saturation after a point. It happens with movies, music, manga, anime...you name it. It's very rare for an artist to be able to release their work that is consistently better than the last. In manga/anime case, the arcs. People really just start losing interest after a point and move on to other things. Big example is OP's decline in sales since its record breaking peak.

It's been talked about every day for the past 4 months lol

Not with the actual sales numbers tho. This right here is the finale of all of those 4 months of nonsensical arguments here. I'm being dramatic but that's only because I'm genuinely excited to see what numbers S8 post. If it'll be a dud or a success or a mega hit.

 

[TyVip]

First Gucci with JoJo, and now COACH with Naruto (with a celebrity backing it). Anime/Manga = cultural phenomenon.

 

[SalesNerd69]

Seeing Act-Age first 3 volume sales, what do you think made jump from axing it? (im glad they didn't). Same with Kimetsu when its first volume didn't even rank in oricon top 50. Could reader surveys have been positive and still those people didn't buy the tankonbons cause seeing the early success of MHA, TPN and SxF makes it seem unlikely to me that readers would rate them real well but not support it

 

[TyVip]

For Act Age it's because Shuiesha starts promoting it, and fat words of mouth a month before it. I still have the pic at the time


which btw volume 4 is still struggling for the first week (doing 20k, then another 20k in its 2nd week)

then it just continues to rise.

 

[Ebrietas-]

Holy shit. Say KNY sells 600k for new volumes. Then the Gap is down to 1.4 mil. With 17 volumes, each volume only needs another 80k in backlog.
In this week KNY sold 45k per volume in backlog, another 80 in two months is definitely doable imo.
Just this week the backlog was what, like 640k? 1400k in two months I think is possible
If KNY takes first place
I'm gonna jizz diamonds

I have almost no doubt that volume 17 will sell 600k in a month. It will at least be close to that figure. Also, the backlog was 692k this last week and it's dominating Shoseki's daily rankings since Sunday. The backlog boost continues to be strong, but we have to see how big it will be in like 3 or 4 weeks.

A scenario where OP gets outsold in a fiscal year before the series comes to an end seems so unreal. If it happens this year, it would history being made.

I think Kimetsu is around 5 million right now not 7 million, so it would need to sell 4 million more to beat OP

 

[SalesNerd69]

I think Kimetsu is around 5 million right now not 7 million, so it would need to sell 4 million more to beat OP

It was at 6.1 mil iirc last week (not counting fanbook which oricon won't count for end of year) and added basically 700 k this week so its 6.8 mil. The odds of it beating One Piece are still slim cause presumably the backlog boost will significantly cool down as the weeks go by but this will probably be nearly as close the as the year AoT lost by 100k imo