Mag Talk Weekly Shonen Jump [2020] - Discussion and ToC Talk

[Shinuki no Reborn]

MANGAHELPERS "TOC" POLL ISSUE #51 - VOTING!​

The poll for issue #51 is now open, vote for your favorite chapters of the week clicking HERE!

Alongside the release of Sakamoto Days, the extra series this week are:

-Dragon Ball Super 66
-Boruto: Naruto Next Generations 52
-Ghost Reaper Girl 10

Good Votes!

 

[Halloween]

Moderator Notice:
Henceforth, I will be deleting posts that complain about Weekly Shonen Jump having too many/not enough gag/battle/exorcism/sports/etc series.

These posts are not insightful, and do not meaningfully contribute to this thread. Also, this decision is not up for discussion, so posts discussing this decision will also be deleted.~ Halloween

 

[Ryuusei]

Spoiler: 52 TOC & 01 Preview

呪 僕 O マ ブ S C D 破 C B 夜 C 僕 あ 灼 ぼ チ 高 ア 森 A 仄 ぼ 次号カラー ヒロアカ アンデラ 夜桜 約ネバ 道産子 GIGA 岸本先生が描くコラボポスター 爆豪クリアファイル

Spoiler: Issue #52 ToC & Preview

Jujutsu Kaisen (Cover & LCP)
My Hero Academia
One Piece
Mashle
Black Clover
Sakamoto Days (CP)
Dr. Stone
Magu-chan: God of Destruction (CP)
Build King
Mission: Yozakura Family
Me & Roboco
Ayakashi Triangle (CP)
Shakunetsu no Niraikanai
We Never Learn
Chainsaw Man
Koukousei Kazoku
Undead Unluck
Moriking
Agravity Boys
Honomieru Shounen
Bokura no Ketsumei

Issue #1
Cover & LCP: My Hero Academia
CP: Undead Unluck, Mission: Yozakura Family, The Promised Neverland, Dosanko Gyaru wa Namaramenkoi

GIGA Preview
Collab poster by Kishimoto
Bakugou clear file

 

[Franz]

I honestly don't see BC lasting more than early 2022.

And it would be about two years of publication, it seems fair.


So much so that there is not much left to tell.

Just

Spoiler

Asta's backstory, the identity of the demon of his grimoire and who will be the new Wizard King.

For all this two years are enough.

 

[tirakai]

Do you think Mitama or Yozakura will make it past a year at this point? It doesn't seem like either's getting cancelled this round so they'll definitely run longer than Kamio Yui did, but it's still possible for them to get cancelled in Summer and end around the same point as Samurai 8 did.

If Guardian and Agravity keep up those placements though I think Mitama and Yozakura will still be fine until August (unless they do another huge batch, but there's so many new series already that it doesn't seem likely).

--- Double Post Merged, Apr 24, 2020, Original Post Date: Apr 24, 2020 ---

Black Clover's still got a TV anime ongoing (even if it's going on break due to the pandemic), as long as that's running Black Clover's completely safe. Plus Tabata's happy to keep it going as long as Naruto and Bleach if Jump lets him.

Also both Toriko and Beelzebub, two series that had long running anime but dropped to dead last later on, lasted 2 years at the bottom in the main magazine after their anime ended.

The only way Black Clover ends by early 2022 is if Tabata has health issues or something and chooses to end it early himself, or if the anime doesn't return from this break and the series drops to perma-bottom 3 in the ToC starting next week.

It's already been around for more than 5 years now with no end in site (with people pretending it's an unpopular flop the whole time), is it really that hard to imagine it still being around for another 5 years or more? It might never end up being a top pillar of the magazine, but it has a solid spot at the top of the mid-tier and a reasonably successful TV anime, just like Gintama which lasted 15 years.

 

[Franz]

The only way Black Clover ends by early 2022 is if Tabata has health issues or something and chooses to end it early himself, or if the anime doesn't return from this break and the series drops to perma-bottom 3 in the ToC.

Twenty more episodes are in production, it will return.

Then why is it impossible for it to end in two years?

It's already been around for more than 5 years now with no end in site (with people pretending it's an unpopular flop the whole time), is it really that hard to imagine it still being around for another 5 years? I

10 years is far too long for Black Clover, but also for any other manga, in the course of the history of Jump it is a duration reached by few titles.

 

[tirakai]

Twenty more episodes are in production, it will return.

Then why is it impossible for it to end in two years?

10 years is far too long for Black Clover, but also for any other manga, in the course of the history of Jump it is a duration reached by few titles.

A popular series lasting for 10 years depends on the author more than anything else, some have enough plans and motivation to keep it going for 10-15 years while others get bored of their story or run out of things they want to do after only 2-3 years of chapters. Tabata has said he could go for 700 chapters, so it's not a matter of ideas for him, it just depends on WSJ itself.

And now that Kochikame, Naruto, Bleach, and Gintama are all finished, they probably want to have some new really long-term series to bridge the gap between generations.

Also the list of authors who have a series last for more than 10 years is bigger than you'd think (especially with sequels). It's not just a few top elites.

--- Double Post Merged, Apr 24, 2020, Original Post Date: Apr 24, 2020 ---

Figured I'd do a list, so there's the series (I think) that lasted longer than 10 years in WSJ itself

- Kochikame
- Captain Tsubasa (between the original and the sequel that was also in wsj)
- Dragon Ball
- Jojo's Bizarre Adventure
- One Piece
- HxH (mostly on hiatus)
- Naruto
- Bleach
- Gintama


Series that have lasted more than 10 years total, counting sequels and spin-offs by the original creator elsewhere

- Kinnikuman
- Fist of the North Star
- Bastard (mostly on hiatus)
- Otokojuku
- Saint Seiya
- Hell Teacher Nube
- Shaman King
- Prince of Tennis (came close to 10 years in wsj though, as did a couple other series like Rookies and Kinnikuman)
- D.Gray-man (again, mostly on hiatus)

 

[pamuchi]

I don't really think bc will last 700 chapters or more. It's just too much, that would mean that Tabata would stretch it unnecessarly. I feel like almost every plot is being resolved or it's currently happening (of course there are some things that will be developed in the next arcs). Unless Tabata goes on and explore Yami's world and more character interaction, even more with the vice captain. Who knows, as ppl is interested and supporting the series, it will be ok.

 

[Franz]

A popular series lasting for 10 years depends on the author more than anything else, some have enough plans a

But I would not say, in the history of the Jump few series have reached and exceeded ten years of duration.

Now we must not think that all successful manga last years and years just because we read One Piece.

On average, a successful manga lasts from 3 to 4 years, maximum 5-6

Already 7-8 are several and are reached by certain manga, battle genre species, which remain very popular over time.

Mangas that last ten and more years are rare and these are cases that occur once every ten years.

Also the list of authors who have a series last for more than 10 years is bigger than you'd think

And how many are there on the Jump?

Just to name the most famous of the last thirty to forty years:

One Piece: 23 years old

Hunter x Hunter: 22 years old

Jojo (counting the series released on the Jump): 16 years

Naruto and Bleach: 15 years old

Dragon Ball: 11 years old

Toriko: 8 years old

Haykyuu: 8 years old

Hitman Reborn: 8 years old

Kinnikuman (original series): 8 years

Captain Tsubasa (first series): 7 years (10 if we count World Youth)

Shaman King: 7 years old

Shokugemi no Soma: 7 years old

Slam Dunk: 6 years old

City Hunter: 6 years

Saint Seiya: 5 years

Hokuto no Ken: 5 years

Cat's Eye: 4 years

Assasination Classroom: 4 years

The Promised Neveland: 4 years

Demon Slayer: 4 years

Death Note: 3 years


And I could go on .....

And of all these series, only six seven have reached and exceeded 10 years of publication on the Jump, and we are talking about series with much higher sales and popularity than Black Clover ...

 

[lgrmjauffre]

But I would not say, in the history of the Jump few series have reached and exceeded ten years of duration.

Now we must not think that all successful manga last years and years just because we read One Piece.

On average, a successful manga lasts from 3 to 4 years, maximum 5-6

Already 7-8 are several and are reached by certain manga, battle genre species, which remain very popular over time.

Mangas that last ten and more years are rare and these are cases that occur once every ten years.






And how many are there on the Jump?

Just to name the most famous of the last thirty to forty years:

One Piece: 23 years old

Hunter x Hunter: 22 years old

Jojo (counting the series released on the Jump): 16 years

Naruto and Bleach: 15 years old

Dragon Ball: 11 years old

Toriko: 8 years old

Haykyuu: 8 years old

Hitman Reborn: 8 years old

Kinnikuman (original series): 8 years

Captain Tsubasa (first series): 7 years (10 if we count World Youth)

Shaman King: 7 years old

Shokugemi no Soma: 7 years old

Slam Dunk: 6 years old

City Hunter: 6 years

Saint Seiya: 5 years

Hokuto no Ken: 5 years

Cat's Eye: 4 years

Assasination Classroom: 4 years

The Promised Neveland: 4 years

Demon Slayer: 4 years

Death Note: 3 years


And I could go on .....

And of all these series, only six sects have reached and exceeded 10 years of publication on the Jump, and we are talking about series with much higher sales and popularity than Black Clover ...

JoJo was actually in WSJ for 18 years, and you left out some pretty major series like Kochikame (40 years), Dr. Slump (4 years), Kuroko's Basketball (6 years), Yu-Gi-Oh (7 1/2), Nisekoi (5 years), Rurouni Kenshin (5 1/2 years), just to name a few.

Edit: hell, even My Hero Academia (5 1/2 years), Black Clover (5 years), Dr. Stone (3 years), and We Never Learn (3 years) are still running in the magazine.

 

[Franz]

JoJo was actually in WSJ for 18 years, a

16 counting from the first series to Stone Ocean,

There was very little Steel Ball Run on the Jump.

and you left out some pretty major series

If I was writing all the Jump series, I was here until tomorrow.

I listed the ones that came to my mind,

 

[lgrmjauffre]

16 contando dalla prima serie a Stone Ocean,

Steel Ball Run sul Jump c'è stato pochissimo.



If I was writing all the Jump series, I was here until tomorrow.

I listed the ones that came to my mind,

The first 23 chapters of Steel Ball Run ran in WSJ. Part 1 started at the end of 1986 and Steel Ball Run moved to Ultra Jump in October 2004. So nope, 18 years.

And I just thought it was odd you left off some more recent major series, including ones that are currently in the magazine.

 

[Franz]

Part 1 started at the end of 1986 and Steel Ball Run moved to Ultra Jump in October 2014

2004.

And anyway Phantom Blood officially started in 1987.

 

[BX-02BLODIA]

2004.

And anyway Phantom Blood officially started in 1987.

Using Jump's weird calendar year yes, but Chapter 1 of Jojo came out on Dec 2nd, 1986.

 

[Lil meen]

So when will issue 23 be released since we had a hiatus last week?

 

[Franz]

So when will issue 23 be released since we had a hiatus last week?

May 11

 

[101nemesis]

Black Clover's still got a TV anime ongoing (even if it's going on break due to the pandemic), as long as that's running Black Clover's completely safe. Plus Tabata's happy to keep it going as long as Naruto and Bleach if Jump lets him.

Also both Toriko and Beelzebub, two series that had long running anime but dropped to dead last later on, lasted 2 years at the bottom in the main magazine after their anime ended.

The only way Black Clover ends by early 2022 is if Tabata has health issues or something and chooses to end it early himself, or if the anime doesn't return from this break and the series drops to perma-bottom 3 in the ToC starting next week.

It's already been around for more than 5 years now with no end in site (with people pretending it's an unpopular flop the whole time), is it really that hard to imagine it still being around for another 5 years or more? It might never end up being a top pillar of the magazine, but it has a solid spot at the top of the mid-tier and a reasonably successful TV anime, just like Gintama which lasted 15 years.

Eh? Can we stop comparing a series like BC to something like Gintama? Gintama's franchise was a gold mine. BC is not even remotely close. Gintama earned it's right to stay as long as it wanted with the money it's franchise minted despite being a comedy driven series.
Even at it's lowest decline point, Gintama still sold more than current BC.
Also, Gintama's anime was VERY successful. It's the best selling franchise among long running anime franchises. Above Bleach, Naruto, OP etc.

BC might have a moderately successful anime but declining manga sales will affect how WSJ looks at it.
Toriko's anime got impressive ratings and sold a lot of merchandise. Didn't stop them from cancelling the anime and eventually leading to Toriko's end.

BC won't be cancelled tomorrow but 1.5 years with a steady decline in sales as seen now = high probability of it getting cancelled.

Do people forget that this is WSJ and that they will cancel a declining franchise? S8 was just cancelled a month ago.

 

[tirakai]

Samurai 8 wasn't a declining franchise, it was a failed franchise. There's a big difference between something that was popular but dropped off a bit and something that was never popular from the beginning.

Also everything sold a lot better back in Gintama's day, series selling 100k per volume could get cancelled early on since everything else did better than that. Gintama was top of the mid-tier back in it's peak, just like Black Clover is now. Black Clover's not going to end in under 2 years, especially with an anime that's not ending until next year at the earliest (due to the break and number of episodes we know are already planned).

Toriko and Beelzebub continued for 2 years at the bottom after their anime ended and that was in a significantly more competitive line-up than current WSJ which will soon be more than half filled with series less than a year old (plus Beel's anime wasn't even very popular).

You can convince yourself it's an unpopular flop all you want but it's not going away any time soon.

 

[Franz]

Black Clover's not going to end in under 2 years, especially with an anime that's not ending until next year at the earliest. Toriko and Beelzebub continued for 2 years at the bottom after their anime ended

At most it could reach Toriko's level of duration, at most eh, but who reaches 10 years is not in heaven or on earth.

 

[yadayada]

Gintama was selling better in 2017 70 volumes in than Black Clover is now with 20.

I think it will get to live more than it normally should purely due to the magazine not being in any position to get rid of an established series even if not a particularly popular one right now, but the Gintama comparison is very out of place.

 

[tirakai]

The comparison is because they fill about the same spot in the magazine from their respective eras, Gintama was pretty much the top of the mid-tier series but couldn't compete with the top pillars of the magazine, which is the same state as Black Clover.

This is an era of Jump where series (that aren't gag manga) sell under 100k per volume last more than 200 chapters and end naturally. And some series popular enough to be at the top of the magazine are selling the amount some mid-magazine stuff did in the 00s.

And now that they've got 8 slots filled by new at-risk series (likely 9 soon), standards for success are probably just going to drop even more.

 

[BX-02BLODIA]

Now I wonder what the standards were like for Jump in the 70's..

 

[101nemesis]

Samurai 8 wasn't a declining franchise, it was a failed franchise. There's a big difference between something that was popular but dropped off a bit and something that was never popular from the beginning.

Also everything sold a lot better back in Gintama's day, series selling 100k per volume could get cancelled early on since everything else did better than that. Gintama was top of the mid-tier back in it's peak, just like Black Clover is now. Black Clover's not going to end in under 2 years, especially with an anime that's not ending until next year at the earliest (due to the break and number of episodes we know are already planned).

Toriko and Beelzebub continued for 2 years at the bottom after their anime ended and that was in a significantly more competitive line-up than current WSJ which will soon be more than half filled with series less than a year old (plus Beel's anime wasn't even very popular).

You can convince yourself it's an unpopular flop all you want but it's not going away any time soon.

I didn't state at any point that BC was an "unpopular flop" but nice attempt in trying to paint a false narrative, I guess.
I said it was a moderately successful anime and average seller as a manga. Both statements are accurate. Please prove these statements wrong otherwise

Are we really going back to this argument "Everything sold better back then".
It's funny how the top series in WSJ right now, One Piece, KNY, MHA, TPN, HQ are all selling similarly to back then.
JK (without an anime) outsells BC (with an anime). Meaning with an anime, it can at the very least do 400-500k.
World Trigger continued to grow AFTER it's hiatus and reached new peaks.
Dr. Stone is on the rise and almost matches BC meaning its franchise is growing.
SxF a brand new series exploded with popularity right off the bat with more sales.
Act Age and CSM, both very non-conventional WSJ series are growing with very single volume. Act Age is slowly catching up to BC as well.

But sure, when it comes to your series, "Everything sold better back then".
It's such a lazy argument.

RxL, S8, Illegal Rare all had decent numbers for a starting franchise but the lack of growth meant it wasn't worth the investment. BC's growth is not +ve, it's -ve. Meaning there is no growth for BC.

The comparison is because they fill about the same spot in the magazine from their respective eras, Gintama was pretty much the top of the mid-tier series but couldn't compete with the top pillars of the magazine, which is the same state as Black Clover.

This is an era of Jump where series (that aren't gag manga) sell under 100k per volume last more than 200 chapters and end naturally. And some series popular enough to be at the top of the magazine are selling the amount some mid-magazine stuff did in the 00s.

And now that they've got 8 slots filled by new at-risk series (likely 9 soon), standards for success are probably just going to drop even more.

Gintama was a top-tier series. It wasn't mid-tier. It was top tier because what it did as a comedy was akin to what Naruto/Bleach, at the very least, did as a battle manga.
Gintama's peak print numbers were 700k, if I'm not mistaken. It sold more than any other comedy in WSJ. It's anime grossed more (both as movies and in sales) than any other long running franchise. It's franchise revenue for multiple years was among the top. Yeah, sure. BC and Gintama are totally the same tiers.
Thanks for the laugh, I guess.

Like I said, BC is fine for now. WSJ also needs new series to pick up.
But I'd still wager, 1.5 years with declining sales will definitely lead to it's end.

If you've been following WSJ properly, you'd know this by now.