Mag Talk Weekly Shonen Jump [2021] - Discussion and ToC Talk

Ryuusei · Dec 6, 2020

susanoo13 said:
I can totally see where you're coming from, and very much everybody. If I would predict the numbers roughly it would be like this :

1. One Piece - 10.5M with 4 Volumes and a small backlog after Vol. 100 hits the shelves
3. Kimetsu's final volume selling 4.75M and has a backlog of 4M
5. Attack on Titan selling 4M with it's final 2 volumes and has a backlog of 2.5-3M

1. That's if they can release 4 volumes this year. Their original plan was to release volume 98 in December but they already delayed it by two months. Also, only One Piece volume sold over 2 million last year so there's also that.

3. If you think Kimetsu can only pull 4 million in backlog this year you really haven't paid attention to sales. In the first week of 2020 alone it sold 1 million and that was a low week because volumes were running out of stock. Kimetsu will be the #1 series this year unless something completely explodes in popularity and currently only Jujutsu Kaisen might do so.

5. The best selling Attack on Titan volume last year barely sold over 1 million copies and the final season shouldn't be enough to increase its backlog that much.

susanoo13 · Dec 6, 2020

You really think the market has no peak?
How much do you expect a Kimetsu volume to sell overall? 6M? Yes there is hype and a certain season 2 or else it's literally jumping off of a financial cliff, but the market has it's limits, ones that I think are somewhere along the 5M point as quite an arbitrary number. Most Kimetsu volumes are around 4.5M and I thought what might bring them to the point of 4.75-5M. If every season had it's own boost you would see MHA selling in the millions now and Haikyuu!! as well, but the boost was a lot more minor to both series and to past series such as Kuroko's Basketball and AssClass to name some.

AoT's backlog by the way only need to have 100K backlog each for the entire year to reach the point I've mentioned and I don't think it's outside the realm of possibilities for it to do so.

Ryuusei · Dec 6, 2020

susanoo13 said:
You really think the market has no peak?
How much do you expect a Kimetsu volume to sell overall? 6M? Yes there is hype and a certain season 2 or else it's literally jumping off of a financial cliff, but the market has it's limits, ones that I think are somewhere along the 5M point as quite an arbitrary number. Most Kimetsu volumes are around 4.5M and I thought what might bring them to the point of 4.75-5M. If every season had it's own boost you would see MHA selling in the millions now and Haikyuu!! as well, but the boost was a lot more minor to both series and to past series such as Kuroko's Basketball and AssClass to name some.

You can't treat Kimetsu no Yaiba as normal or even compare it to those other series. It's a social and cultural phenomenon, it's on a scale we've never seen before. If people from this forum have learned anything in the past year it was to never doubt Kimetsu's ability to do the seemingly impossible.

Aiga · Dec 6, 2020

susanoo13 said:
You really think the market has no peak?
How much do you expect a Kimetsu volume to sell overall? 6M? Yes there is hype and a certain season 2 or else it's literally jumping off of a financial cliff, but the market has it's limits, ones that I think are somewhere along the 5M point as quite an arbitrary number. Most Kimetsu volumes are around 4.5M and I thought what might bring them to the point of 4.75-5M. If every season had it's own boost you would see MHA selling in the millions now and Haikyuu!! as well, but the boost was a lot more minor to both series and to past series such as Kuroko's Basketball and AssClass to name some.

AoT's backlog by the way only need to have 100K backlog each for the entire year to reach the point I've mentioned and I don't think it's outside the realm of possibilities for it to do so.

Kimetsu have reached a different level to the manga you mentioned so comparing them isn't really a good idea, if every volume is going to reach 5m then that would be close to 9m backlog alone

yadayada · Dec 6, 2020

susanoo13 said:
You really think the market has no peak?
How much do you expect a Kimetsu volume to sell overall? 6M? Yes there is hype and a certain season 2 or else it's literally jumping off of a financial cliff, but the market has it's limits, ones that I think are somewhere along the 5M point as quite an arbitrary number. Most Kimetsu volumes are around 4.5M and I thought what might bring them to the point of 4.75-5M. If every season had it's own boost you would see MHA selling in the millions now and Haikyuu!! as well, but the boost was a lot more minor to both series and to past series such as Kuroko's Basketball and AssClass to name some.

There is a fundamental misunderstanding of how sales work here. Note how no one even mentioned season 2 because that's completely irrelevant as Kimetsu's backlog has yet to run out of steam, you'll see that as soon as it gets restocked. Even once it finally hits its breakout point it'll start to gradually decrease for the better part of the year, but 4M is pretty much ridicolous. It'll have done well more than that in backlog alone by the end of the december and quite handily too.

Also just saying, but if they get to 4.75-5M avg, that already exceeds your own prediction by a good margin...might wanna re-check your math there.

AoT's backlog by the way only need to have 100K backlog each for the entire year to reach the point I've mentioned and I don't think it's outside the realm of possibilities for it to do so.

AoT is one of the most frontloaded series in the market and has complete trash backlog, the only reason it even increased was its AmeTalk appearance and even that is running out. Also you predicted its new volumes to literally double in sales lol, AoT's best selling volume this year barely cracked 1M.

1. One Piece - 10.5M with 4 Volumes and a small backlog after Vol. 100 hits the shelves

One Piece's average per new volume on 2020 yearly is 1.9M, while your prediction here has it at 2,625M avg. That's +700k. It's not compatible with "a small backlog boost".

4. Kingdom reaching the same sales as this year. No anime increase

Kingdom's main piece of media for 2021 is its live action sequel (first one was very successful). The announcement alone made backlog surge by a great amount last year.

Rouk' · Dec 6, 2020

yadayada said:
Kingdom's main piece of media for 2021 is its live action sequel (first one was very successful). The announcement alone made backlog surge by a great amount last year.

I think the broadcast of the first movie on NTV (later on the same day) helped boost its sales even more.
With the announcement, Kingdom was only trending #3 in Japan on twitter vs #1 worldwide during the broadcast

yadayada · Dec 6, 2020

Rouk' said:
I think the broadcast of the first movie on NTV (later on the same day) helped boost its sales even more.
With the announcement, Kingdom was only trending #3 in Japan on twitter vs #1 worldwide during the broadcast

Yeah, true. Forgot about that since it was on the same day. Still, the live action is definitely the main piece of Kingdom media alongside the manga, anime's just a nice extra if it does something (will probably be a small boost I guess, not expecting much).

susanoo13 · Dec 6, 2020

yadayada said:
There is a fundamental misunderstanding of how sales work here. Note how no one even mentioned season 2 because that's completely irrelevant as Kimetsu's backlog has yet to run out of steam, you'll see that as soon as it gets restocked. Even once it finally hits its breakout point it'll start to gradually decrease for the better part of the year, but 4M is pretty much ridicolous. It'll have done well more than that in backlog alone by the end of the december and quite handily too.

Also just saying, but if they get to 4.75-5M avg, that already exceeds your own prediction by a good margin...might wanna re-check your math there.

AoT is one of the most frontloaded series in the market and has complete trash backlog, the only reason it even increased was its AmeTalk appearance and even that is running out. Also you predicted its new volumes to literally double in sales lol, AoT's best selling volume this year barely cracked 1M.

One Piece's average per new volume on 2020 yearly is 1.9M, while your prediction here has it at 2,625M avg. That's +700k. It's not compatible with "a small backlog boost".

Kingdom's main piece of media for 2021 is its live action sequel (first one was very successful). The announcement alone made backlog surge by a great amount last year.

You're right on all the notes and I need to check my math again, I didn't even know about the Kingdom news so that's good to hear. I only took the 3rd season in Spring into account. The only thing is about One piece, when accounting for +700k, it's divided across 100 volumes

yadayada · Dec 6, 2020

susanoo13 said:
You're right on all the notes and I need to check my math again, I didn't even know about the Kingdom news so that's good to hear. I only took the 3rd season in Spring into account. The only thing is about One piece, when accounting for +700k, it's divided across 100 volumes

Assumed you were dividing new volume sales and backlog from the wording since you did it for the others, that one's reasonable then as long as it actually does release 4 volumes.

NeeNeen · Dec 6, 2020

Very late comments for LAST WEEK's chapters, because why not.

Sakamoto days: See? Episodic with no killing. This is supposed to be charming, not gruesome.

But if you want to keep your identities a secret, maybe stop screaming "Mr. Sakamoto!!" at the top of your lungs all the time.

(Also there's no way that bag of potato chips was a coincidence.)

Build King: ... I feel like this is teaching kids all the wrong things.

MHA: Another one. I wonder if this will become a trend.

OP: Nice slow part with Zoro. The rest is still chaos.

Mashle: lol. If only real-life politics were this easy.

BC: Of course the hero has to be fashionably late.

Dr Stone: If you figured out he was plotting something, then why did you let him? Nice action.

Yozakura: Big arc incoming!

Cop & Dolphin: Once again cop is the better dad. But, er, I'm a bit confused about the villain's endgame here. You're going to keep people in the building everyone knew they were going? Isn't that literally the first place anyone will look?

UU: That was cute. But he will have to forget everything anyway, or the first chapter doesn't make sense.

Moriking: Less funny. This one is really hit and miss for me nowadays.

AB: That was almost nice, until the ending made it a giant waste of time.

PS: What do you mean, she got rid of you? You're the one who turned coward and threw your friend under the bus. :/ But I'm glad the girl wasn't just there to force a love triangle.

OBO:

Mankichi Togawa · Dec 6, 2020

The full Jump Festa panel (and not only One Piece and "I'll ignore the rest"):

RafGL · Dec 6, 2020

Preview HQ.

Neala897 · Dec 6, 2020

Mankichi Togawa said:
The full Jump Festa panel (and not only One Piece and "I'll ignore the rest"):

Gintama?

RafGL · Dec 6, 2020

K, IDs.

Just stuff we know. Chainsaw Man is ending in Issue #2 as we have known since the leak came out. We Never Learn is ending in Issue #3/4, no extensions, no secret routes, no more stuff, just seems like an extra epilogue chapter to finalize all routes. My Hero Academia has 1 extra ID that I honestly don't know what it is about, so it may be some extra spin-off chapter (because we by far know Horikoshi is not gonna draw 2 chapters for a single issue) or just be nothing. Just don't expect anything at all, save your hopes.

Everything else will be safe and sound until Issue #5/6, but we have more than known this since the Christmas Promotion Campaign that was posted here which included all main characters except for Denji and the Rizu/Fumino duo.

Franz · Dec 6, 2020

So no breaks for the rest of december ?

OtterBrigade · Dec 6, 2020

so since the volleyball stuff doesn't seem to just be a one-off thing is Highschool Family the sports series we've been waiting for :3c

Mankichi Togawa · Dec 6, 2020

Time to rank Jump. It has been a good week and JJK is doing a masterclass of how to end an arc. Build King has also had its best chapter so far to me.

Jujutsu Kaisen
Undead Unluck
My Hero Academia
Mashle
Build King
We Never Learn
Chainsawman
Mission of Yozakura Family
Ayakashi Triangle
The Promised Neverland extra story
Sakamoto Days
Dr.Stone
Honomieru Shonen
Black Clover
Agravity Boys
Me and Roboco
Magu-chan
Moriking
Haikyuuschool Family
Cop and Dolphin
Our Blood Oath

Tamil · Dec 6, 2020

Build King was good, the materials market is pretty much the one from Toriko's verse. The last page surprised me, Shimabu throwing in fan-service lol. I like her design, her eyebrows remind me of Satsuki (Kill La Kill) or Coco. Speaking of Coco, he made a cameo in this chapter!

Sakamoto was alright this week and CSM was great. I absolutely love Jigokuraku's special illustration this week.

FireFantasyVI · Dec 6, 2020

Yozakura was decent this week, nice to see a chapter that doesn't focus on Taiyo. Really reminds you how packed full of characters this series is

Agravity had some of it's best art this week, but the gag fell a little flat. Feels like it's slowly moving to the end, now resolving the Chris/Grislow gag

Undead was great, very interested to see where it goes now

Mashle was pretty good too, glad to see a serious chapter that doesn't feel too undermined by gags. I see a lot different sides and factions developing, which is cool

Moriking was fine, got a laugh or two but felt pretty unremarkable

Ayakashi was pretty good, these characters do really feel like they're developing

Magu was good, love me some good kaiji references

Dolphin was okay, not really sure what the purpose of this mini arc was, but it was fine I guess. 2 kaiji references in one issue too

Roboco was great, solid gags and the reference humor landed pretty well

Phantom was good, interesting mystery they're building up but don't really care for the new female character

HSF was decent, not super funny but I'm growing fond of the dad and his passion for volleyball

Blood Oath continues to be blood oath, nothing new

Build King was pretty good, worldbuilding continues to be fun, and the characters are growing on me

Sakamoto was alright, nothing bad but didn't like it as much as the past 2

CSM and JJK were phenomenal this week. TPN reminded me of when the series really was good, it's a shame how it turned out. Mafuyu route is fine, unless the last chapter is terrible it should fall roughly in the middle, might have to reread Uruka route though.

WyldViolet · Dec 6, 2020

Fantastic
Agravity Boys (had me laughing out loud the entire chapter and the final Bleach gag had me in tears)
Chainsaw Man (really hoping for a sequel in +)

Good
Jujutsu Kaisen
Black Clover
Undead x Unluck
Sakamoto Days
Ayakashi Triangle
Ron Kamonhoshi
Moriking
Magu-chan

Meh
World Trigger
Mashle
My Hero Academia
Yozakura
Build King

Terrible
Our Blood Oath
Hardboiled Pig & Dolphin

Mag Talk Weekly Shonen Jump [2021] - Discussion and ToC Talk

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