Games Mafia Game 108 - Mob Psycho 100 (75%)

[Crescent Jinx]

This is on discord but will put here too.

 

[Shad]

Mechanic update

Every 30 minutes that passes without a post being made, I will hostkill a random player!

 

[Marmalade]

Alright, let's get into it. We have 9 players left. It's probably too optimistic to say there is still hope, but let's be optimistic. Let's at least Lynch a mafia okay . So I wanted to make a complete list of claims and actions so it's easy to find them all in one place (and maybe that helps making sense of what happened).
This is for the players currently alive:

	Claim	Actions
Kat	Spy (paranoid?)	N1: Digitaldude --> Baka N2: GB (No result) N3: Gry (No result) N4: Brandish (no result)
Brandish	Sickly townie	N1: - N2: - N3: Marmalade N4: DD
Wojak	Prostitute	N1: Sam N2: Baka N3: Holt N4: ???
Farfalla	Vengeful Townie, 1-time hider secondary	N3: Hid behind Marmalade.
Erinyes	SM, 1-time investigator secondary	N2: Investigate Demon --> Mafia Detective N3: SM Evil --> N1: Farfalla, N2: Baka N4: SM Sam --> N1: No result, N2: Marmalade.
Raven	???
Marmalade	Healthy Townie	-
DD	Apprentice --> SM	N1: Holt. N2: Erin N3: Erin N4: SM Shijima --> N1: Grysun, N2: GB
Grysun	Banshee	Marked Brandish, Evil, Holt, Raven.

Players that have passed away:

Sam	Psychiatrist	Died N2. N1: blocked According to Erin: N2: Marmalade.
DemonSpeed	????	Died N1. According to Erin: Mafia Detective.
GB	????	Died N4. Never claimed.
Baka	Necromancer/Curse	N1: N2: Gry (spy, no result) --> Blocked? N3: Gry (det, no result) --? Blocked?
James	Bomb Defuser/Restless Spirit	Died N2. Likely killed by PGO --> Targeted Farfalla.
Evil	Doctor	Died N2
Panda	Bodyguard	Died D1.
Shijima	Detective	Died D3. N1: Grysun N2: GB (according to DD's results).
Holt	Apprentice/ILLUSION	Turned into Illusion N3 Shattered D4 (Lynch) N2: Wojak N3: Wojak
Kato	Spy	Died D2. Probably no targets.

Are we missing anything? I tried my best, but it's a lot of messages this game and it's easy to accidentally skip something.

@wojak I trust you'll tell us your target for N4 when you're here
@Raven Can you really not share anything about your role? You say it's something that can save town, from what I understood. What would be helpful is to at least share something, to fill in the blanks. It's important we get as much information as we can so we can figure out who is lying or not.
It doesn't help that there are these temporary roles imo, I generally trust Erin this game for example - but considering that's normally not a thing in games it constantly makes me wonder if there's more of these roles that'll pop out any second lol.

It's to see if something like this for example:

I blocked holt. Escort blocked Baka

which means janitor kill got saved by some protecting role. So escort doesn’t know janitor

--- Double Post Merged, Dec 16, 2022, Original Post Date: Dec 16, 2022 ---

Kat didn’t get blocked. She’s probably the last one in GB Demon team

Or perhaps something else. Who knows, what I do know a bit of information would help us get unstuck imo.

N1	Demon	Janitor
N2	Sam Evil James --> Likely died by PGO.	No janitor kill this time
N3	No deaths
N4	Baka GB	Janitor strikes again.

Two mafia teams, 1 shapeshifter seems to be likely, I've been seeing some mentions of a possible 1 big mafia team floating around today even. I personally don't get the impression that's the case.

- Wouldn't Holt have shattered if Gry targeted him on N3?

• Banshee (Townie): The Banshee can target a player every night. When the Banshee dies, during the following phase, they can select one of the players they targeted. The selected player dies at the end of the phase. This kill cannot be prevented (hidden/blocked/protected) in any way. The Banshee can choose not to kill.
• Priority Shapeshifter = 2
• Priority Banshee = 3.
• According to the interactions thread illusions happen after all the other actions are done, at the end of the night. So no, he wouldn't have shattered.
• Conclusion: Gry is most likely not the shapeshifter, could still be mafia.

- Farfalla says she hid behind me on N3: Could explain 1 of the missing kills if they targeted her. Farfalla would have been shattered if she was an illusion by N3, as her hiding ability wouldn't have worked
- If Holt turned into a SS on N3, like the opening post states Brandish is not the Shape Shifter if he's telling the truth about his role (he says he sicklied me that night). Doesn't mean he can't be mafia sickly I suppose.
- I wonder if the nights with no deaths or only 1 death mean a possible traitor might have been recruited. A blocked kill is also possible.
- Holt is the only illusion to get shattered so far, we have to keep in mind that more players are possibly illusions too. We can theorize Kat turned into an illusion N2 for example, as no one has seemed to come forward blocking her (unless mafia is secretly blocking her all game).

--- Double Post Merged, Dec 16, 2022 ---

Wait, I was disrespectful? @.@ I meant what I told Holt yday, I don't think I was aggressive or anything now

--- Double Post Merged, Dec 16, 2022, Original Post Date: Dec 16, 2022 ---

Wait, what, rly? '-' Are you people seeing me as sentimental?
Well, Marm in this case.

Irrelevant but out of curiosity.

Aaah I meant the negativity here in general, it's kinda painful to read this thread at times.

I need a little tea break, will respond to the plan you proposed after that if you don't mind

 

[Erinyes]

We can theorize Kat turned into an illusion N2 for example, as no one has seemed to come forward blocking her (unless mafia is secretly blocking her all game).

If Mafia kept blocking Baka/jammin, I assume Kat might be an illusion, I doubt there is 2 excorts in the game.

 

[Farfalla]

@wojak I trust you'll tell us your target for N4 when you're here

I'll tell you ahead I've been following the thread ever since I'm back and wojak has been here and hasn't responded to my tag.
Just something to have in mind in spite of what happens next. Tho IF he rly blocked Holt, we still lack a block on Jambaka N3. They're confirmed townie, det always gets a reply.

- Wouldn't Holt have shattered if Gry targeted him on N3?

LOL true, then Marcie lied~
Votekill Gry for now.
My offer is still there btw.

 

[GrySun]

Okay so I gathered my mind. I won't be getting convinced of anything else and am officially done theorizing and going back and forth unless something significant happens.

We have most likely lost beyond repair, but I tried to do some last puzzling together that I could just for the sake of seeing how close I was for posterity sake. I do not believe this is winnable outside of a christmas miracle. Almost every townie messed up at not being suspicious and looking town, so this is impossible to get 100% correct by just thinking.

Some people get paired sections:

_______

1. 9 players alive. How many mafias could there be? 19 players should have 5. If 2 mafia teams, then it should be 3 each. Only 1 is dead so far, so now we have:
A. 3 red mafias vs 2 orange mafias vs 4 townies. This is if GB was town.
B. 3 red mafias vs 1 orange mafia vs 5 townies. This is if GB was mafia.
C. Either A/B but with 1 less townie and 1 SS. In this case it is 4 or 5 mafias vs 1 TP vs 2 or 3 townies.

C is too hopeless and it's unimportant to consider as we can't do anything, so I am discarding it. So it is A or B. What was GB?

_______

1. Shijima, GB and DD. If DD is not lying, Shijima investigated me N1 and GB N2. However, Shijima has not mentioned GB or talked to GB all D3. Regardless if he had the same result on us both or not, he should have at least vaguely mentioned GB somewhere somehow. Maybe he didn't because we both had the same result, but that would mean GB was not mafia and we are looking at option A. Maybe he just didn't because it didn't cross his mind at all, we cannot know.
I want to give Shijima the benefit of the doubt, despite being a beginner surely he would at least share if he got different results. So if DD is telling the truth, GB was town and we are at option A.

An alternative is that DD is lying through his teeth. One possible explanation why Shijima not talking about GB doesn't make sense is because DD wanted to go with Sam not Shijima as the target but was forced to claim "mistake" and go with Shijima, hence why GB doesn't fit as Shijima's target. This would indicate option B. Only DD knows which option it is.

_______

2. Farfalla and Erinyes. I really want to trust them because of how they claimed unprovoked their secondary role. Deserves props if it is a mafia strategy and not ashamed to lose to it if it is. Such a play would never be repeatable and nobody would trust temporary secondary roles anymore. This was different than James last time who was caught by Psy. They could try to appear town with sharing their secondaries and keep bringing that up as an argument of being town(Farf is doing this). SM + Investigator makes sense and Erin played or acted it properly. I will assume Erin is town for further mental sanity.

Vengeful + Hider is the weirder one. I get the overall idea of it, that it raises the odds she gets lynched and uses her main role because of her secondary keeping her safe. But only 1 night feels really "meh" when it's very unlikely mafia would rush at the chance to kill a Vengeful anyway. It happened to work out because of the player the role was randomized on, but most of the time this shouldn't make sense. However we do not have many ways of preventing kills, so every bit could help?

What speaks more against Farfalla is that she used her Hider on the same exact night that Holt was turned into an Illusion. She never spent any time today talking about this coincidence in particular. If this is a mafia temporary secondary power, it makes sense she would use it that night because she feared dying to the other team. This could just be really poor luck for Farfalla if she is town, to have used Hider power on same night a Shapeshifter did his "hiding". I believe her switch to GB was weird and out of nowhere, in none of the posts leading up to Holt's lynch did Farf seem to prefer someone else, especially GB, over Holt.
Why would she speak out heavily against Holt when the Illusion showing is bad for her? Maybe she just didn't think of it being bad for her, until close to end phase, remembering her Hider claim could be tied to Holt showing Illusion on same night and got cold feet.

Farfalla unfortunately went from likely town to undecided for me. Too many ifs.

_______

3. Maramalade is town. No question about that. Even if she was mafia with Brandish, why would Brandish tie himself to her needlessly given the current circumstances? Looks more like Brandish making use of Marm's confirmedness, and not the other way around.

If anything, Brandish not using his Sickly has to mean that he was using some mafia role instead. Cannot be Janitor due to N4, so something else that they only needed sometimes but not always. Mafia Det or Escort?

4. Raven. Her playing this day is a complete opposite of her playing first whole 4 days. She doesn't want to claim a role. I'd really like to just brand her mafia and be done with it, but the zeal she posts with today seems more like a townie than a mafia that's already winning trying to win harder. If not for her first 4 days being completely different and doing a 180 now, I'd trust her.

5. Wojak. The only claimed blocker, when we appear to have more than 1. Some very strange posts that can either be attributed to being new or messing up as mafia. His blocks were all terrible and on townies, which can also either be attributed to being new or being mafia. Saw him around, not sharing his action. Despite being a Prostitute that can block kills he is still alive. He has moments where he sounds genuine but so does everyone.

6. Kat. I discared the SS option C, so she is either a Permablocked 2nd Spy or a mafia. Her Spy hint on D2 is the only thing speaking in her favor all game for me, but it could just be something intentionally left there, or her making the claim idea in advance.

_______

TLDR SECTION

Final conclusion(who is orange or red doesn't really matter):

Option A(3 red vs 2 orange vs 4 town)
Me
Marmalade
Erinyes
Farfalla

Kat
Wojak
Brandish
Raven
DD

Option B(3 red vs 1 orange vs 5 town)
Me
Marmalade
Erinyes
Farfalla
DD

Kat
Wojak
Brandish
Raven

Reasons are as above, but to summarzie quickly:
Me - am town
Marm - healthy townie, everything around her makes sense
Erinyes - all benefits of Farfalla minus the downsides
Farfalla - decided to weight her reveal as a town action that overshadows the questionable parts
DD - In the case we got 1 more townie, I pick him, because of the remaining 5 I distrust him just a bit less than the remaining 4

Kat - Faking a Spy all game, otherwise very disagreeable thoughts and arguments
Wojak - Just too shady
Brandish - I do not believe in him voluntarily skipping Sickly early game with the reasoning he provided
Raven - Cannot make myself trust her for how she played first 4 days
DD - Slipup with his result at start of day + just very disagreeable thoughts and arguments

This is it.

--- Double Post Merged, Dec 16, 2022, Original Post Date: Dec 16, 2022 ---

LOL true, then Marcie lied~
Votekill Gry for now.

So lazy, can't even read rest of Marm's post where she concludes opposite of this terrible reasoning. Whatever, gg.

 

[Erinyes]

Tho IF he rly blocked Holt, we still lack a block on Jambaka N3. They're confirmed townie, det always gets a reply.

Yeah but i feel that he picks conveniently targets who claimed to have been blocked, he could be legit, but I m feeling uneasy the fact he was online and avoided to answer our tags.

--- Double Post Merged, Dec 16, 2022, Original Post Date: Dec 16, 2022 ---

I'm back and wojak has been here and hasn't responded to my tag.

I have tagged him twice or thrice i think, and no answer. and yeah he was online.

 

[GrySun]

Oh forgot one thing. I am only voting either Raven, Kat or Wojak today. DD and Brandish are both close enough to being the 5th townie in option B for me to go for them today. Brandish also cannot be Janitor.

Even if I‘m at tied votes with DD or Brand I‘m not voting them.

 

[Farfalla]

So lazy, can't even read rest of Marm's post where she concludes opposite of this terrible reasoning. Whatever, gg.

I mean, you just have to argue back on your claimed action + official priority list + confirmed shattered illu. We're tired (well I am with Hardy away), so maybe you'll show the overlook.
Also, I saw even tho you literally painted me green, you still put me under shades again. So once more I'll repeat my offer stands.

 

[GrySun]

I mean, you just have to argue back on your claimed action + official priority list + confirmed shattered illu. We're tired (well I am with Hardy away), so maybe you'll show the overlook.
Also, I saw even tho you literally painted me green, you still put me under shades again. So once more I'll repeat my offer stands.

There‘s nothing to argue. You‘re not even reading Marm‘s post where she does the work for you. Illusion is made at end of night, Holt could only be shattered N4 onwards. I am tired too, and you have enough to shade you on. Curse your poor luck if you‘re town but again nothing to debate.

I don‘t care for your offer, I said who I am voting today. Nor does it make sense, if you‘re town we lose 2 towns for a delayed kill, pointless waste.

 

[Farfalla]

Hmmm you did check the SS role properly beyond the Prio... Won't like, the Prio list + description on its own is very confusing.
My offer does make sense cause knowing I'm townie doesn't make you townie to me. I even told you you ignored my replies to you.
If I look full of shade on my own, out of "poor luck", same to you with all of those failed actions on you...

--- Double Post Merged, Dec 16, 2022, Original Post Date: Dec 16, 2022 ---

Can you reveal your thoughts on why Kat and not Bran btw please

 

[GrySun]

Hmmm you did check the SS role properly beyond the Prio... Won't like, the Prio list + description on its own is very confusing.
My offer does make sense cause knowing I'm townie doesn't make you townie to me. I even told you you ignored my replies to you.
If I look full of shade on my own, out of "poor luck", same to you with all of those failed actions on you...

Pretty sure all your replies I ignored are adressed somewhere in the big post of mine. And your plan doesn‘t make sense to me, don‘t know why you bring up that it makes sense to you.

And sure same to me as well then.

--- Double Post Merged, Dec 16, 2022, Original Post Date: Dec 16, 2022 ---

Can you reveal your thoughts on why Kat and not Bran btw please

I think mainly some memory popping up of town Brandish being Sickly and never using it. That‘s about it. She‘s more disagreeable as well while Bran doesn‘t say much to begin with to agree with or not.

 

[Farfalla]

I think mainly some memory popping up of town Brandish being Sickly and never using it. That‘s about it. She‘s more disagreeable as well while Bran doesn‘t say much to begin with to agree with or not.

So you don't think this game has an Escort, is that you point?

What's the scenario you envision for N3, when wojak claimed he blocked Holt, then confirmed Holt said he learned nothing (shouldn't he have, if he's only an illu at the end of the night as you just pointed us to), but both confirmed Baka and Kat still claimed they got no results?

 

[GrySun]

So you don't think this game has an Escort, is that you point?

What's the scenario you envision for N3, when wojak claimed he blocked Holt, then confirmed Holt said he learned nothing (shouldn't he have, if he's only an illu at the end of the night as you just pointed us to), but both confirmed Baka and Kat still claimed they got no results?

No why, any of the red names can easily be Escort. If Kat is lying it‘s even more straightforward, or you think there are 3 blockers total? But not something I would think about right now but just go for who has the least doubts, and the named 3 are it for me.

 

[Farfalla]

No I don't, wrote about it yday.
Oli will be asleep before day ends so I plan on reviewing that bigass post I made yday with the notion now that Holt's town...

--- Double Post Merged, Dec 16, 2022, Original Post Date: Dec 16, 2022 ---

You're lame btw, you don't trust town can tell the remaining ones in that worst scenario I wrote? Maybe it's cause I'm heavily inclined to trust Erin and Marm that that's a no brainer to me, finding a scum in 3/4 seems rather easy while scums themselves they're still gunning each other otherwise they can't win.

 

[wojak]

What did DD do last night? Sorry I was drunk all night

--- Double Post Merged, Dec 16, 2022, Original Post Date: Dec 16, 2022 ---

@wojak I trust you'll tell us your target for N4 when you're here

DigitalDude

 

[GrySun]

No I don't, wrote about it yday.
Oli will be asleep before day ends so I plan on reviewing that bigass post I made yday with the notion now that Holt's town...

--- Double Post Merged, Dec 16, 2022, Original Post Date: Dec 16, 2022 ---

You're lame btw, you don't trust town can tell the remaining ones in that worst scenario I wrote? Maybe it's cause I'm heavily inclined to trust Erin and Marm that that's a no brainer to me, finding a scum in 3/4 seems rather easy while scums themselves they're still gunning each other otherwise they can't win.

Did you think your worst scenario through with recent rule changes? Vengeful kills at night, so you kill me N5, then I can kill N6, and then it will be Day 7 when my kill matters. Town needs to survive 2 phases not counting this one, for a kill we traded 2 townies for to come into play.

Call me lame but I think this is frankly not worth it.

--- Double Post Merged, Dec 16, 2022 ---

What did DD do last night? Sorry I was drunk all night

--- Double Post Merged, Dec 16, 2022, Original Post Date: Dec 16, 2022 ---

DigitalDude

He was not blocked and got some result. You going to call him a blocked liar?

 

[wojak]

He was not blocked and got some result. You going to call him a blocked liar?

Yes

--- Double Post Merged, Dec 16, 2022, Original Post Date: Dec 16, 2022 ---

I am happy with lynching any of Brandish, DD, Kat and Grysun......At least I hope today we will get to lynch a player I'm genuinely sus about

 

[Farfalla]

DigitalDude

Plot thickens indeed

 

[wojak]

If Mafia kept blocking Baka/jammin, I assume Kat might be an illusion, I doubt there is 2 excorts in the game.

Kat wasn't blocked. Escort blocked baka/jamnin, I blocked holt

 

[GrySun]

Well this is one of those major things I mentioned that change things. Would replace DD with Wojak in town list now.