Games Mafia Game 58 - Umineko: How to play 13 - END GAME

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Marmalade

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The first part is possible, but there's a reasonable number of ways to die during the night even without being targeted by the mafia or third parties. There are also a lot of ways a mafia kill can fail, so we can't rule anything out yet.

The last part is impossible. The holder could have failed the kill, but the rules of the Note say that you get a penalty if you don't use the Note or don't designate its next owner, and the only penalties we can see are those for yesterday's inactivity.
Ah okay!
I was just thinking out loud, so it's not like I set my mind to that completely. More to see what are the possibilities, what could have happened.
 

Kato756

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Good job everyone
 

gnut

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Well... Yeah, that's a pretty heavy blow. We still got a Mafia Det as a first lynch, though, which is probably the best first day result ever. It's way too early to give up :nah



With that new information from "Chapter 2", it seems a bit more plausible that there could be a single mafia, since it appears to suggest that if a mafia member is holding the Note, they can't use the regular nightkill but need to use the Note instead:


And that's a lot better for us, especially with that part about a "bad guest" being in possession of it. I still think it's more likely that there are two mafias and a few third parties than one mafia and a lot of Serial Killers/Mentors/Santas...




The first part is possible, but there's a reasonable number of ways to die during the night even without being targeted by the mafia or third parties. There are also a lot of ways a mafia kill can fail, so we can't rule anything out yet.

The last part is impossible. The holder could have failed the kill, but the rules of the Note say that you get a penalty if you don't use the Note or don't designate its next owner, and the only penalties we can see are those for yesterday's inactivity.
Why cant i shake the feeling you and possibly niichan are behind demons death....
 

desin24

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Hmm. Demon wasn't mafia this time. And town had great losses a doc and a dec Really? I still think there are two máfias and that one aimed for the det while a townie probably used the note to kill demonspeed.
How could they "aim" for a specific role on night one? I think this more of a way to get rid of active and pretty good players so it's easier to hide between rather inactive ones and also take control of the direction the townies speculate on.
 

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Someone I'd like to at least look at is Kato. I mean, yes he says that the role he got was bad, but those are just words. And if it is a lie, which is then bought by the town, it's an ok cover story for Mafia.
 

desin24

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I honestly don't believe Demon was a mafia kill. He is, by default, one of the most suspicious players in the game, killing him is pretty detrimental to the mafia cause unless they believed him to be part of a possible second mafia.
 

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I honestly don't believe Demon was a mafia kill. He is, by default, one of the most suspicious players in the game, killing him is pretty detrimental to the mafia cause unless they believed him to be part of a possible second mafia.
You have a point there. But what about Orgz?
 

gnut

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I honestly don't believe Demon was a mafia kill. He is, by default, one of the most suspicious players in the game, killing him is pretty detrimental to the mafia cause unless they believed him to be part of a possible second mafia.
Or just troll
 

Arjuna

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We should also focus inactives or who isn't drawing much attention to themselves.Elusia and others like him can be focussed.
 

Marmalade

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I know Elusia lives in a timezone where it is night right now ^ That could play a role in her not replying a lot. Your point does makes sense though.
 

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RIP Kanon and father... :scry but do not worry, this very Ushiromiya Battler shall avenge you by finding the culprits behind these murders :arf




Okay so I read back the last posts of the last day, and I am even more enforced in believing what I said near the end of the day.

gnut and niichan. One of them is a mafia for sure. Both were very jumpy on me saying there are no mafias among those that voted Spriggan, even though I never said that and they were putting words into my mouth. But the worst thing is, they heavily went all in in challenging my point of there being mafias among those that in the last minuted didn‘t vote for Spriggan. Why would they debate that unless they knew that Spriggan would show as mafia? This is a giant slipup.

Out of them, I think it simply has to be nichan. Why? gnut made a lot of hints, which is something he does almost always he‘s town. One could probably even trace what his role is by going through all his games and what roles he had, same thing he pulled last game as Mason Recruiter. He also suspected niichan at start(though his voting near the end is still strange)
Meanwhile, niichan made a giant post challenging my point of there being mafias among those that didn‘t vote spriggan, even though we didn’t know if Spriggan would show as mafia. But among all those words he basically said nothing if you make a tl;dr version of it. He wanted to start a way to save Spriggan. Then, he voted for Empty because Empty was in a similar situation to Spriggan and tried to pull votes to him.

I‘m currently on sucky phone internet in the cold walking outside taking care of something, but when I‘m back I‘d be very glad to debate you over this @niichan. I haven‘t had such a read I‘m very convinced of since Panda in the TG game, it has to be him.
Do you honestly think I would try to protect Spriggan like one hour before the end of the day phase when he was most likely going to end up dead anyway? :oh If I wanted people to go for EmptySoul instead I sure would've tried to frame him as mafia way more strongly, instead I simply said I didn't want to be the last one to vote for him bc he could be a bomb (and IIRC there are other potentially dangerous roles if you were the last voter in a lynch, but tbh it's been quite a while so my memory is foggy), and it was very likely I would turn out to be the last one voting for him. Dunno why you're jumping on me that much for basically one single post stating that your arguments don't have to be the truth, especially considering I hadn't voted yet and could've simply jumped on the bandwagon bc let's be honest, it was more or less a given that Emperor would end up dead by that point. I guess that's what I get for trying to be helpful :faint

So there isn't much to debate over, my post was in preparation for the second day, trying to save someone that close to the end of the dayphase is a futile attempt anyway that's only going to hurt you if that someone turns out to be mafia. I wouldn't put myself in the spotlight in such a dumb way if I actually were mafia :XD
 

Arjuna

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I know Elusia lives in a timezone where it is night right now ^ That could play a role in her not replying a lot. Your point does makes sense though.
Not now basically.If you look at previous DP too she barely drew attention to herself.So we should keep those things in mind too.
 

Marmalade

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Not now basically.If you look at previous DP too she barely drew attention to herself.So we should keep those things in mind too.
True. Like I said yesterday, she has this innocent image. This is how she acts in general, not very attention drawing and sweet. That could work in her favour a lot in this game.
 

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Arju, sometimes drawing attention to yourself ends really badly lol. Look at my last D1.
 

Elusia

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I know Elusia lives in a timezone where it is night right now ^ That could play a role in her not replying a lot. Your point does makes sense though.
This is sadly true. You guys tend to talk from the middle of night (12 am) to very early in the morning, estimated times would be 4-6 am. Unless it's my school days (and I don't have school atm), I can't possibly be active.
 

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Well... Yeah, that's a pretty heavy blow. We still got a Mafia Det as a first lynch, though, which is probably the best first day result ever. It's way too early to give up :nah



With that new information from "Chapter 2", it seems a bit more plausible that there could be a single mafia, since it appears to suggest that if a mafia member is holding the Note, they can't use the regular nightkill but need to use the Note instead:


And that's a lot better for us, especially with that part about a "bad guest" being in possession of it. I still think it's more likely that there are two mafias and a few third parties than one mafia and a lot of Serial Killers/Mentors/Santas...




The first part is possible, but there's a reasonable number of ways to die during the night even without being targeted by the mafia or third parties. There are also a lot of ways a mafia kill can fail, so we can't rule anything out yet.

The last part is impossible. The holder could have failed the kill, but the rules of the Note say that you get a penalty if you don't use the Note or don't designate its next owner, and the only penalties we can see are those for yesterday's inactivity.
Hmm I think if the mafia actually has the Note, that means they can only do one kill anyway, so wouldn't that actually make it more plausible that there's a second mafia group? Considering that the Note apparently isn't really giving them an advantage, if we take all the coloured lines as truth. So if we assume that the mafia has the Note, and two kills happened, then there is a possibility that the second kill was done by the second mafia group. Though ofc it could also be an insane doc or mb another townie who has a second note...

Then again it bugs me that the pink and blue truth aren't confirmed to be "facts" too. I was trying to deduce something yesterday, going from how it's handled in Umineko, but a pink truth doesn't even exist there. The purple isn't a certain fact in the game either, red is (but that one isn't even in this mafia game), so it's probably useless to try to deduce something with how it's handled in Umineko.

oh and if anyone is curious, blue is used to challenge a riddle in the game, so the "magic" side has to refute blue statements with red statements. And red is an absolute statement in the game that can't be questioned, it's considered a 100% truth.
 

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Damn, last day ended so well and now a det and a doc are dead. Rip Demon and Orgz, they were both killed in the first phase of the last game too... :feelsbadman

What it matters though is that if we somehow got an advantage with the lynch now things turned bad again, from what I could read in the new developments post is:

- There's one Mafia that made a kill with one member and another one with the note
- There's two Mafias that killed one townie each, no death note use for either not possession or blocked killing (like what if the mafia failed one of their kills)
- There's a townie that killed with the death note and a mafia that killed normally (this could only happen if we dont believe the op post about the "bad guys having the note", so I put this option apart for now)


Of course there are more possibilities but these look like the most plausible in my eyes, I need to read again orgz and demon's posts and their interactions that could lead to them getting targetted.

I also think we should start talking about roles, it doesn't have to be direct, more like a reference. I know secretism is a good tool to stay alive but in a game where a lot of people can die very fast could prove fatal (it happened in the DBZ game, I wasn't even there but what a disaster) so we need day investigation to be effective from D3 onwards and have clearer references from here on out, Im more worried about the inactive mafias than the active ones since the latter either have a very good plan or will get busted in discussion.

My role is active and appeared in one of the games I played , I think its not useful at the moment.
 

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Why cant i shake the feeling you and possibly niichan are behind demons death....
I honestly don't believe Demon was a mafia kill. He is, by default, one of the most suspicious players in the game, killing him is pretty detrimental to the mafia cause unless they believed him to be part of a possible second mafia.
Or just troll
Are you saying I'd have troll-killed Demon? :D

Jokes aside, I mean it when I say that killing the same people in the first phases over and over is not cool. Even if I were mafia, I wouldn't target the very two people who died on D1 and N1 on the previous game right away... Unless they really stood out in some way, which I don't think they did yesterday. And I'd still feel bad about it...


Hmm I think if the mafia actually has the Note, that means they can only do one kill anyway, so wouldn't that actually make it more plausible that there's a second mafia group? Considering that the Note apparently isn't really giving them an advantage, if we take all the coloured lines as truth. So if we assume that the mafia has the Note, and two kills happened, then there is a possibility that the second kill was done by the second mafia group. Though ofc it could also be an insane doc or mb another townie who has a second note...

Then again it bugs me that the pink and blue truth aren't confirmed to be "facts" too. I was trying to deduce something yesterday, going from how it's handled in Umineko, but a pink truth doesn't even exist there. The purple isn't a certain fact in the game either, red is (but that one isn't even in this mafia game), so it's probably useless to try to deduce something with how it's handled in Umineko.

oh and if anyone is curious, blue is used to challenge a riddle in the game, so the "magic" side has to refute blue statements with red statements. And red is an absolute statement in the game that can't be questioned, it's considered a 100% truth.
My point is that if the Note allowed a mafia group to perform two kills every night while passing it around among their members for at least a few nights, it would be insane to also have a second mafia for a total of three potential kills every night (and possibly multiple Notes, too) - but at the same time, having a Note that allows a single mafia group to kill twice would mean that they're either very few in number, or that they can prey on the townies twice as fast as usual, so that wouldn't be very balanced either.

Long story short, it essentially makes sense in both cases, but in a game of this size I still think two mafias are more likely than one. At least now that we now the Note doesn't translate to a double kill for mafia.


That aside, it's never a good idea to focus all our attention on only one or two people every day. You're already getting questioned without much to go after, but it's something to consider. Do you have any suspect after yesterday's lynch, niichan?
 
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Gryffindor

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Empty is not a guy lol.

Also, is it common for the causes not to be shown for what happens over night with kills? I'd figure it would say something like "X was killed by the note" or something along those lines and it would give a hint as to the number of notes.
 

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Do you honestly think I would try to protect Spriggan like one hour before the end of the day phase when he was most likely going to end up dead anyway? :oh If I wanted people to go for EmptySoul instead I sure would've tried to frame him as mafia way more strongly, instead I simply said I didn't want to be the last one to vote for him bc he could be a bomb (and IIRC there are other potentially dangerous roles if you were the last voter in a lynch, but tbh it's been quite a while so my memory is foggy), and it was very likely I would turn out to be the last one voting for him. Dunno why you're jumping on me that much for basically one single post stating that your arguments don't have to be the truth, especially considering I hadn't voted yet and could've simply jumped on the bandwagon bc let's be honest, it was more or less a given that Emperor would end up dead by that point. I guess that's what I get for trying to be helpful :faint

So there isn't much to debate over, my post was in preparation for the second day, trying to save someone that close to the end of the dayphase is a futile attempt anyway that's only going to hurt you if that someone turns out to be mafia. I wouldn't put myself in the spotlight in such a dumb way if I actually were mafia :XD
So you say you don't know why I'm jumping on you that much, while at the same time ignoring the main reason I wrote why I suspect you. You knew Spriggan was mafia, you never even once questioned that he would reveal as mafia when lynched. Instead you immediatelly went to argue about my post of "If Spriggan shows mafia then problably...", instead of arguing about whether Spriggan is mafia or not. If you thought he was, you would've voted him, If you thought he wasn't, you wouldn't have attacked that part of my post. And pretending he could be a bomb out of nowhere when basically nothing was pointing towards that is even more of a ridiculous reason not to vote him if you think he's a mafia.

And honestly, I don't get why so few people even voted Spriggan to begin with. He literally put 2 gifs of laughter while saying "looking forward to your sweet tears of defeat" while accepting his death. No townie ever would do that. Yet people still conveniently ignored his post.

As for why you'd protect Spriggan, you still had an hour and a half to go. Many people are usually active near the end of a day. Perhaps you hoped to sway 1/2 people, and have your mafia friends vote on Empty as well. But they didn't want to save Spriggan.

You must've gotten rusty after not playing for so long, but you never questioning that Spriggan is a mafia while still making the post you did is a huge slipup, and after what Panda did in the TG game I told myself to never let these things go by unpunished again. Sorry niichan, but feigning ignorance here and pretending you said so "because you were being nice" by securing yourself and your other members a route for not being suspicious while not voting Spriggan is a very poor play and I'm not letting it pass.

!votekill niichan

I'm hoping everyone else reads this and rereads your last few posts from the previous day, this is such an obvious misplay. @gnut you too, I think you ignored my previous post of accusing niichan and where I talked about you, so please read up on that.
 
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