Over 15 years reading OP I know is its not sequenced, you cannot predict 100% what happens because Oda lays many layers to each arc where developments are purely circumstantial. For ex. Bleach was methodical, it had no layers only rich lore, I figured out a lot of secrets long before the manga confirmed it by piecing nuances together. OP arcs are multi-faceted so that Oda can pull a card on a whim.