Loki flashback really gives more credit to it being Blackbeard.
Not disagreeing with you because there is no way Oda is giving us these BB revelations just to also not show us BB's vengeance in the near (present day) future but your statement works both ways with both Blackbeard and Dragon. Dragon has been dealing with the WG for much longer and has had his sights set on taking them down with his careful planning and leading all these years. They already screwed up the CD food supply. At some point the next logical step is to attack the enemy's main base.
Well it‘s interesting to see the two main suspects both being present at God Valley. I‘m pretty optimistic that we are going to get our answers. They both have all the reasons in the world tp be attacking the Holy Land, but after witnessing what Teach‘s daddy did manage to do in the past and how Blackbeard was treated as game by the scum Celestial Dragons back on GV I can’t help it, I‘m wishing for Blackbeard to be the one leading the attack.
So could Davy D. Teach be planning to attack Mary Geoise for what they did to his Davy family?
I think Blackbeard is a damn good candidate, in the OP world, not many can see this coming but for us readers, we know this dude is full of surprises from the start. Still, all of his shenanigans are a path to the rise to power, not necessarily going against the Marines or WG directly as opposed to Dragon's agenda. So I cannot shake the feeling that this is Dragon's doing but the very reason of Blackbeard being the unpredictable and opportunistic mofo that he is, I can no longer just think that this is just Dragon so here is my wildass theory. It is the both of them. Together like
@WILDCARD 1 7 says but here my elaboration as to why I feel this way.
At surface glance, it shouldn't be possible but now we have a lot more context thanks to the current GV flashback. Burgess led the BB fleet to Baltigo and there was a huge battle and it looks like the RA got defeated there and had to retreat. That is all we know but for all we know, that may not be the accurate or full story. We already know that Cipher Pol was there and wherever they go, at least some parts of history becomes a lie. Here is what I think went down but I have to start with what I know/remember of Blackbeard's and Dragon's relationship and the significance of their relationship is that there wasn't one at all, iirc sans the fact that BB and Dragon was at GV at the same time. No one outside of the RA knew where Baltigo was. For me, knowing Burgess, he probably wanted revenge on Sabo and his people for humiliating his ass on Dressrosa (plus knowing their base of ops is valuable knowledge). However on the other hand, knowing what we know about GV and Blackbeard, I would say he went there to make a deal because the enemy of his enemy is his friend. Why would BB need to raze Baltigo to the ground? What good would that do for him when he already is a Yonkou and he has no business with the RA? Now I am not saying BB did not destroy Baltigo but I am saying the circumstances and reasons are greatly exaggerated. I think he went there to strike a deal and CP followed because it is in their interest to know where Baltigo is. So what am I REALLY saying? You've guessed it. There is a
MOLE in Blackbeard's crew/inner circle like there was a mole in Rock's crew (Ochoku). I have no speculation on who this might be though. It would make sense for the WG to have someone infiltrate BB or at the least turn a member against him. I think when Burgess summoned the BB fleet to Baltigo, everyone in the know probably did think BB wanted to go there to destroy them but I think BB himself had something else in mind. It can be chalked up to irony that BB went and dethroned Ochoku but knowing BB, he probably figured that this guy was the biggest traitor in his dad's crew so removing him from Hachinosu kills two birds with one stone for BB. Knowing such, I can see BB suspecting that there is a mole within his own crew too. Again, why not? Every large organization is susceptible to this. It even happened to Whitebeard.
BB probably did have a skirmish at first with Dragon if talks went sideways but the probable reason of why it was destroyed is not because they were fighting. It is to destroy evidence AND make it seem like the two faction (RA and BBV's Fleet) were fighting and hates each other and of course, the CP destroyed everything else to erase Baltigo like they buster called so many other places. Dragon and BB are both mastermind planners. They're looking at a dozen chess boards all at once where each chessboard is it's own chess piece in the grand scheme of an even larger chessboard. Why in the world would they want to destroy each other? There is literally no benefit. Loss of life, resources, territory and such when they have other main enemies so it just doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me. I get that the RA has forces all over the place but their main base is Baltigo. There is no way that they can regroup as quickly in their new base and then strike Mariejoa if BB destroyed a good number of their forces on Baltigo. No, the Baltigo incident is framed that way so that CP and more importantly, the WG think that those two are at odds and won't see them working together to attack Mariejoa in the present day. I imagine BB and Dragon and their most trusted dudes just sitting down and discussing it (without the WG mole present) and BB, if he knows there is a mole, would tell Dragon something like, look the WG is coming due to this double agent in my crew. You want to team up or not? I was at GV too ya know and I want the CD's dead and this of course, leads to the present day where Dragon's RA attacks Mariejoa and BB sends people to support them. OF course, Blackbeard being Blackbeard, he likely is trying to strike another deal where he will call off his attack and give Garp back if the WG recognizes Hachinosu as a WG affiliated territory AND make him a Celestial Dragon. And this is my crackpot theory. There's a few kinks in there but I think this all makes sense.