Games MAFIA GAME 22 DEATH NOTE ENDGAME!!

[Hakuteiken]

Re: MAFIA GAME 22 DEATH NOTE! DAY 5!

Well the only thing I can say is that Evil was taken out by the insane doctor - I don't see why that is weak possibility at all.
One - orgz was being recruited, recruiter dies - made me think that orgz was mafia
turns out the recruiting was successful so, orgz is innocent.
Which leaves the possibility of the insane doctor going after one person since both xi0 and Herms were taken out.

If we believe Faust's confession, he should be the Naive Doctor. I can't see much of a space for three Doctors to be in the game at the same moment (though I have no past experience, bear that in mind), since Imp was revealed to be the real Doctor. Besides, it's a pretty silly gamble if someone forced such a move to protect Evil when the chances for two real Doctors to be in the game was minimal (again, I have no past experience).

---------- Post added at 06:09 AM ---------- Previous post was at 06:03 AM ----------

So, the question is should we believe Faust?
Well, first of all, he mentioned niichan's name in his post. They should be pretty much in the same boat now. They are either scheming their plan together as Mafia or they are both Townies. Otherwise, I can't see Faust revealing something this big without being cornered much, which wasn't the case.
So, they can both be Mafia. Since we also had a Sleeper in the beginning, there is a good chance that's it and they are the remaining Mafia members. But that leaves us with the task of clearing Jorped's name which is even tougher at the moment or so it seems.

 

[Charlie]

Re: MAFIA GAME 22 DEATH NOTE! DAY 5!

If we believe Faust's confession, he should be the Naive Doctor. I can't see much of a space for three Doctors to be in the game at the same moment (though I have no past experience, bear that in mind), since Imp was revealed to be the real Doctor. Besides, it's a pretty silly gamble if someone forced such a move to protect Evil when the chances for two real Doctors to be in the game was minimal (again, I have no past experience).

Lets assume thats the scenario that took place - who would yous suspect still on the higher tier.
Also faust could have been lying the whole time - I see no credence to believe his story.
My ranking of Suspiciousness:

highly suspicious: Faust, jorped and MidoBan
mid suspicious: Mazino - can switch mazino with mido. They have a level of suspsion that I cant nail down.


not suspicious: Farfalla - thinking she is the sickly and niichan believing he is bulletproof

out of debates: Moa -

 

[Hakuteiken]

Re: MAFIA GAME 22 DEATH NOTE! DAY 5!

Let's wait for Faust to say something on the matter, then.
I'm not going to make a move before Org and niichan give insight, either.

 

[Organizized]

Re: MAFIA GAME 22 DEATH NOTE! DAY 5!

I've been suspicious of Faust for a while now. When he revealed his role, he was very eager to make sure everyone saw it, giving obvious "hints" five times over. On top of that, he's claiming one of the safest role to claim, which is "one of the doctors". Even if the other Doctors step forward and reveal their roles, it's fairly safe because there could be as many as three different ones. And with him even saying he "might be naive" he made it even harder for other Docs to contra-claim.

There's also the fact that he's been trying to use his role to kill nii-chan (who he's been expressing a heavy suspicion of) since Night 1, which seems really odd to me as Doctors don't know if they're Insane until they confirm it for themselves through Night actions. I see this as a slip-up, and would like to hear why he's been assuming he's Insane from the beginning if he indeed is telling the truth about his role.

Yes, he's been voting for Lawlett since Day 2, but when he first started doing so no one else was really heavily suspecting Lawlett yet, so it would be fairly safe to vote for a Mafia pal in that scenario. Then all of a sudden everyone were suspicious of him, and then it would seem suspicious not to stick to his vote. So him voting for Lawlett doesn't really clear any of my suspicions at all.

Edit:

I would like to hear what Farfalla has to say. Both about her suspicions and about her role. It could help us right now. As for other suspects, it seems fairly unlikely to me that there are two more regular no-power Townies, so one of Mizuno and MidoBan is Mafia in my eyes. Midoban being the most suspicious in my opinion, but this might be because he's been more active and there's more to go on in his case.

 

[Hakuteiken]

Re: MAFIA GAME 22 DEATH NOTE! DAY 5!

You're right about that. He even posted a link back to one of his posts to make sure everyone saw that later on.
Though, trying to kill someone you suspect heavily without knowing about your insanity could be a good gamble. If he's a Mafia and you are insane, you can kill him. If you are naive or the real one, that doesn't really give you a bad result (only losing the chance to protect a fellow Townie). If he's a Townie and you are sane, you will protect him and if you are insane, you may end up killing him.
But I'm not convinced, either, so, I will try a simple mathematical analysis.
I'm going to assign values to each situation. 1 is desirable, 0 is neutral, -1 is undesirable. Naturally, we have to expect a value >> 0 to make it a good gamble.

niichan - Faust
-------------------
Townie Real Doc -> Protection (1)
Townie Naive Doc -> No ability (0)
Townie Insane Doc -> 1/2 Protection, 1/2 Kill -> 1/2*1 + 1/2*(-1) = (0)
Mafia Real Doc -> Waste of ability (-1)
Mafia Naive Doc -> No ability (0)
Mafia Insane Doc -> 1/2 Waste of ability, 1/2 Kill -> 1/2*0 + 1/2*1 = (0.5)

So, the expected value ends up as;
E = 1/6* (1+0+0-1+0+0.5) = 1/12 = 0.083 which is marginally greater than zero. A very weak and baseless gamble, as it seems, if that was the case.
Enough to keep the suspicions up, however.

 

[jorped]

Re: MAFIA GAME 22 DEATH NOTE! DAY 5!

Ok, it seems i won't be able to vote this round. Anyway, based on the latest posts it will be hard to prove my innocence, at this point it seems like i am going to be lynched anyway despite whatever i say. But honestly it doesn't make any sense that i am being so focus on, while we also have other suspicious people. A bad step at this stage might cost us the win, so even though, i think a lot of people will miss my posts, like some people did yesterday, regarding why i voted for kdowns even though he raised suspicious about being the bomb, i will defend myself and i will also reveal my role.

But at this point, based on what i saw, i think the only one trustworthy, is only Haku and Charlie(?)

 

[Hakuteiken]

Re: MAFIA GAME 22 DEATH NOTE! DAY 5!

I'm the one that has suspected Charlie. Organizized is cleared. Farfalla and niichan are almost completely cleared. The rest is a mystery.

 

[Charlie]

Re: MAFIA GAME 22 DEATH NOTE! DAY 5!

Ok, it seems i won't be able to vote this round. Anyway, based on the latest posts it will be hard to prove my innocence, at this point it seems like i am going to be lynched anyway despite whatever i say. But honestly it doesn't make any sense that i am being so focus on, while we also have other suspicious people. A bad step at this stage might cost us the win, so even though, i think a lot of people will miss my posts, like some people did yesterday, regarding why i voted for kdowns even though he raised suspicious about being the bomb, i will defend myself and i will also reveal my role.

But at this point, based on what i saw, i think the only one trustworthy, is only Haku and Charlie(?)

So feeling that your neck might be on the line you try to align yourself with the masons?

 

[MidoBan]

Re: MAFIA GAME 22 DEATH NOTE! DAY 5!

I've been suspicious of Faust for a while now. When he revealed his role, he was very eager to make sure everyone saw it, giving obvious "hints" five times over. On top of that, he's claiming one of the safest role to claim, which is "one of the doctors". Even if the other Doctors step forward and reveal their roles, it's fairly safe because there could be as many as three different ones. And with him even saying he "might be naive" he made it even harder for other Docs to contra-claim.

There's also the fact that he's been trying to use his role to kill nii-chan (who he's been expressing a heavy suspicion of) since Night 1, which seems really odd to me as Doctors don't know if they're Insane until they confirm it for themselves through Night actions. I see this as a slip-up, and would like to hear why he's been assuming he's Insane from the beginning if he indeed is telling the truth about his role.

Yes, he's been voting for Lawlett since Day 2, but when he first started doing so no one else was really heavily suspecting Lawlett yet, so it would be fairly safe to vote for a Mafia pal in that scenario. Then all of a sudden everyone were suspicious of him, and then it would seem suspicious not to stick to his vote. So him voting for Lawlett doesn't really clear any of my suspicions at all.

Edit:

I would like to hear what Farfalla has to say. Both about her suspicions and about her role. It could help us right now. As for other suspects, it seems fairly unlikely to me that there are two more regular no-power Townies, so one of Mizuno and MidoBan is Mafia in my eyes. Midoban being the most suspicious in my opinion, but this might be because he's been more active and there's more to go on in his case.

I agree with you if we are talking about a normal person, but Faust he is always (ALWAYS) very random. What happened does not leave much of the pattern of the things he has done. He has revealed his role in the same way sometimes. I even suspected of faust at first, but now depends a little on what he will say. I think its funny suspect more of me than others, because most of the situation and the roles were said because I pushed the envelope, I knew it was risky because of a role or another, but we had lost good roles with the host kill ... Anyway, I cannot really add up to much because you guys… so I think you are the ones who need to judge now who is or who isnt.

---------- Post added at 07:45 AM ---------- Previous post was at 07:44 AM ----------

Ok, it seems i won't be able to vote this round. Anyway, based on the latest posts it will be hard to prove my innocence, at this point it seems like i am going to be lynched anyway despite whatever i say. But honestly it doesn't make any sense that i am being so focus on, while we also have other suspicious people. A bad step at this stage might cost us the win, so even though, i think a lot of people will miss my posts, like some people did yesterday, regarding why i voted for kdowns even though he raised suspicious about being the bomb, i will defend myself and i will also reveal my role.

But at this point, based on what i saw, i think the only one trustworthy, is only Haku and Charlie(?)

JORPED, TELL US NOW YOUR ROLE THEN!

 

[jorped]

Re: MAFIA GAME 22 DEATH NOTE! DAY 5!

I'm the one that has suspected Charlie. Organizized is cleared. Farfalla and niichan are almost completely cleared. The rest is a mystery.

Far hasn't been much active these last couple of days, so how can you be so sure she isn't Mafia? I also don't think she is, but honestly i can't take her off the suspicious's list.

As far as Niichan goes, he seems to be innocent after yesterday he revealed his role. Though if he ends being a mafia, which i also don't completely deny, it would be the best play ever.

So feeling that your neck might be on the line you try to align yourself with the masons?

No. If you read all previous posts, i was always one of the first to defend Haku. The only thing that sounded suspicious for me was the xi0/evil relationship, that at some point made me wonder what kinda of connection they had. After they revealed they are Masons, i was still suspicious they could be pulling a great move, and making everyone believe they were mason, when they were really mafia. But even i have my doubts when it comes to doing something like that. To something like that working ... it would be ... WOW. Anyway, as the day phase kept going, my suspicious towards them died completely, that's why i ended voting kill Lawl.

 

[Organizized]

Re: MAFIA GAME 22 DEATH NOTE! DAY 5!

@Haku: Yes, I guess it could be a good strategy, but there's something about the way he revealed it that didn't ring true to me. It might have just been bad timing, but to claim the role of Insane Doctor right after Imperium was revealed to be a Doctor, then to say "ah, I might also be naive" right after it's been explained that the sanity level isn't revealed in DD's updates... Plus the a little too obvious "hinting" to make sure everyone would see him as a Doc. I know, it's basically a hunch with a lot of thought into it, so I'm not saying it's decisive but I thought it was worth mentioning as I haven't seen anyone really use this against him before and I want to see what he has to say about it.

Jorped hasn't been at the top of my suspect list throughout the game, but looking back on his posts I realize that's probably because I haven't noticed most of his actions. Him jumping on the Kdowns bandwagon at last minute is of course very suspicious, since there was a lot of concern about KD being the bomb which jorped just seemed to disregard, giving us reason to believe he's trying to "secure himself" by voting on his mafia pal. On the other hand, I do buy jorped's whole "having a hard time keeping up" thing. I mean, I've been feeling the same way until pretty much now (evidently, since I even missed this whole jorped thing) and so I sympathize with him a bit. Don't get me wrong, he's definitely suspicious, but I don't think I see him as quite an obvious lynch as many others.

 

[MidoBan]

Re: MAFIA GAME 22 DEATH NOTE! DAY 5!

Far hasn't been much active these last couple of days, so how can you be so sure she isn't Mafia? I also don't think she is, but honestly i can't take her off the suspicious's list.

As far as Niichan goes, he seems to be innocent after yesterday he revealed his role. Though if he ends being a mafia, which i also don't completely deny, it would be the best play ever.



No. If you read all previous posts, i was always one of the first to defend Haku. The only thing that sounded suspicious for me was the xi0/evil relationship, that at some point made me wonder what kinda of connection they had. After they revealed they are Masons, i was still suspicious they could be pulling a great move, and making everyone believe they were mason, when they were really mafia. But even i have my doubts when it comes to doing something like that. To something like that working ... it would be ... WOW. Anyway, as the day phase kept going, my suspicious towards them died completely, that's why i ended voting kill Lawl.

But you voted for Haku in the second day... and whats your role then?

 

[Charlie]

Re: MAFIA GAME 22 DEATH NOTE! DAY 5!

Far hasn't been much active these last couple of days, so how can you be so sure she isn't Mafia? I also don't think she is, but honestly i can't take her off the suspicious's list.

As far as Niichan goes, he seems to be innocent after yesterday he revealed his role. Though if he ends being a mafia, which i also don't completely deny, it would be the best play ever.



No. If you read all previous posts, i was always one of the first to defend Haku. The only thing that sounded suspicious for me was the xi0/evil relationship, that at some point made me wonder what kinda of connection they had. After they revealed they are Masons, i was still suspicious they could be pulling a great move, and making everyone believe they were mason, when they were really mafia. But even i have my doubts when it comes to doing something like that. To something like that working ... it would be ... WOW. Anyway, as the day phase kept going, my suspicious towards them died completely, that's why i ended voting kill Lawl.

Tell us something about your role -

 

[MidoBan]

Re: MAFIA GAME 22 DEATH NOTE! DAY 5!

Tell us something about your role -

He already did tell about his role a little, he have a pro role who does something at night

 

[jorped]

Re: MAFIA GAME 22 DEATH NOTE! DAY 5!

I will reveal my role in a couple of minutes!
And Orgz, i have answered once why i went for Kdowns, and i stick to my vote even though he raised suspicious about being the bomb.
But i will do it again.

 

[Hakuteiken]

Re: MAFIA GAME 22 DEATH NOTE! DAY 5!

@Haku: Yes, I guess it could be a good strategy, but there's something about the way he revealed it that didn't ring true to me. It might have just been bad timing, but to claim the role of Insane Doctor right after Imperium was revealed to be a Doctor, then to say "ah, I might also be naive" right after it's been explained that the sanity level isn't revealed in DD's updates... Plus the a little too obvious "hinting" to make sure everyone would see him as a Doc. I know, it's basically a hunch with a lot of thought into it, so I'm not saying it's decisive but I thought it was worth mentioning as I haven't seen anyone really use this against him before and I want to see what he has to say about it.

Jorped hasn't been at the top of my suspect list throughout the game, but looking back on his posts I realize that's probably because I haven't noticed most of his actions. Him jumping on the Kdowns bandwagon at last minute is of course very suspicious, since there was a lot of concern about KD being the bomb which jorped just seemed to disregard, giving us reason to believe he's trying to "secure himself" by voting on his mafia pal. On the other hand, I do buy jorped's whole "having a hard time keeping up" thing. I mean, I've been feeling the same way until pretty much now (evidently, since I even missed this whole jorped thing) and so I sympathize with him a bit. Don't get me wrong, he's definitely suspicious, but I don't think I see him as quite an obvious lynch as many others.

Ah, I didn't notice that line myself. It looks a newbie's blunder at the best case that he discarded the possibility of being naive or perhaps he was just trying to buy himself a comfortable role.

You were also not very active, but your posts weren't along the lines with what jorped posted. He didn't seem to be willing to take the initiative to me. It's not that he's an obvious Mafia, but we will probably end up with no better options. That's my assessment of the situation, unless jorped can pull out something.

 

[jorped]

Re: MAFIA GAME 22 DEATH NOTE! DAY 5!

Time to reveal my role. I am a doctor, and based in the results of the night phases, i am prolly the naive one.
Now, ask me anything you want.

@Haku: Yes, I guess it could be a good strategy, but there's something about the way he revealed it that didn't ring true to me. It might have just been bad timing, but to claim the role of Insane Doctor right after Imperium was revealed to be a Doctor, then to say "ah, I might also be naive" right after it's been explained that the sanity level isn't revealed in DD's updates... Plus the a little too obvious "hinting" to make sure everyone would see him as a Doc. I know, it's basically a hunch with a lot of thought into it, so I'm not saying it's decisive but I thought it was worth mentioning as I haven't seen anyone really use this against him before and I want to see what he has to say about it.

Jorped hasn't been at the top of my suspect list throughout the game, but looking back on his posts I realize that's probably because I haven't noticed most of his actions. Him jumping on the Kdowns bandwagon at last minute is of course very suspicious, since there was a lot of concern about KD being the bomb which jorped just seemed to disregard, giving us reason to believe he's trying to "secure himself" by voting on his mafia pal. On the other hand, I do buy jorped's whole "having a hard time keeping up" thing. I mean, I've been feeling the same way until pretty much now (evidently, since I even missed this whole jorped thing) and so I sympathize with him a bit. Don't get me wrong, he's definitely suspicious, but I don't think I see him as quite an obvious lynch as many others.

Spoiler

First of all, i hope this isn't a reason for me to be voted but it seems it's obvious i am not as into this as some of you guys are, for example you or Haku. At Haku's case, it is indeed his first time if i am not mistaken, so i can't really use the fact that being a noob makes you play bad, cuz honestly even though i am not sure what haku is, he has been indeed one of the best players, at least in the sense he is making the conversations going on, which is always important for these kinda of games.

Kdowns was going to be the one i was going to pick anyway, but since he hadn't show up the all day, i though he would be host killed. It wasn't due to the fact either i was suspicious of him, cuz honestly there wasn't anything i could go with. But the fact that he has been innactive during all game, and based on what i have seen some people saying it's not the first time he does that. I mean, who am i to speak, when i am also one of the few that most contribute to the game? But still i have been following the game, and if i haven't elaborate more of my suspicious it's because i kinda think they are pretty much fragile.

And i honestly only thought of KD being the bomb, after i voted, and manly because xi0 mentioned it. I didn't even gave a thought to it, but even when i saw xi0 mentioning i kept seeing kdowns "teasing" you guys about how the game should be played, and after that, i didn't really buy his words, he seemed to be teasing me.

And regarding the fact that i don't contribute much, i have named some of the reasons why that happens, but honestly, i am blocked most of the time. Most of you make up theories, at least on the first days, that could either be on spot, or be completely wrong ... it just seems really random to me and even if those questions have some meaning behind and what is important is not really the question itself but how does the person asked react ... i honestly at that phase didn't had the info to go in like that.

Anyway if i was really mafia, it doesn't make sense, not sure if i actually let some post saying i wanted to kill Kdowns, so at this point you gotta believe in me, cuz Kdowns has been one of the people i most wanted to get rid off. But ok, lets overlook this, and see what i would gain from Kdowns's death if i was a Mafia. Now that i think about it, i actually wouldn't loose much, it would clear some suspicion of me, since i targeted one of my members, and we all know that kdowns wasn't prolly going to last long in the game, since he upsets too many people here. So yeah your theory does make sense ... but it doesn't mean it's right.
I am not a mafia, and honestly you are scaring me right now. I haven't read what comes on the next pages, so it's possible you have made theories about other people, like i have seen you doing in the past few days. And honestly, if they all make as much sense as you do right now, there's a chance that if you are the Mafia you are eluding a lot of people here.

Spoiler

If i was mafia using Kdowns's being the bomb argument, would be the best outcome for the mafia. if i was mafia i would had used it as an excuse to go back on my vote for him,

Spoiler

kdowns himself brought that up

after casting the vote on him, and that way, we might had been able to save him and i wouldn't look as suspicious, cuz kdowns being the bomb, would give me a valid reason to why i didn't cast final vote on him. But as things are right now, i think my innocence would be questioned anyway

here it is.

 

[Hakuteiken]

Re: MAFIA GAME 22 DEATH NOTE! DAY 5!

Hm, now, jorped, did you use your ability to protect someone? Or at least tried, since you can be naive?

 

[MidoBan]

Re: MAFIA GAME 22 DEATH NOTE! DAY 5!

Doctor was the safiest way to tell your role if you are a mafia

List
1: lawlett-kun - Mafia Janitor
2: Kazu-Sama - Detective
3: Mazino - Townie (?)
4: Imperium Doctor
5: xi0 - Mason
6: FrostyMouse Mentor
7: X3D2YFaust - Doctor (? )
8: BBB Banana Townie
9: naruto-niichan bulletproof (?)
10: MidoBan - Townie (?)
11: 3c Freeman
12: Farfalla have a pro role that ppl dont like (?)
13: Xadyu Bomb
14: kdowns Mafia
15: Charlie - Mason
16: Macaco Sleeper
17: jorped - Doctor (?)
18: Organizized -Mason
19: Evil3ye - Mason Recruiter
20: Hakuteiken - Ex detective - Mason
21: TheMoa - Daytime Vigilante
22: M3J - Townie

 

[jorped]

Re: MAFIA GAME 22 DEATH NOTE! DAY 5!

Hm, now, jorped, did you use your ability to protect someone?

Of course i did. The first night i was protecting Evil. And no one died. At that time i thought that were some chances i could be either insane or sane, and i was actually overlooking the naive one. The following 2 nights, i protected Niichan, and nothing happened. This night i was protecting Evil once again, but obvious as it is, i completely failed.