Movies Oscars Contest 2023

[Riku]

Yeah i think i got some points. How to access the score, just check link again?

I'll make it public after work!

--- Double Post Merged, Mar 13, 2023, Original Post Date: Mar 13, 2023 ---

Sorry, took me a bit longer than anticipated. Result time:

This year was tighter than ever. We had a shared first place at 15 points with @George Monkey @Organizized and newcomer @voaneves ! So it all came down to the short film categories as the tie breaker, first time ever in practice. And the Oscar goes to.....

1. @voaneves
(15pts, tiebreaker 2/3)

Congratulations!

Also well done
@George Monkey and @Organizized
(15pts, tiebreaker 1/3)​

Spoiler: Full Ranking

1. @voaneves (15pts, 2/3)
2. @George Monkey (15pts, 1/3)
2. @Organizized (15pts, 1/3)
4. @Riku (14pts)
5. @Thehoennhippo (12pts)
5. @Eigengrau (12pts)
7. @Faust (10pts)
8. @Evil3ye (9pts)
9. @Arjuna (4pts)
Disqualified: Huerta171 (12pts) , jimmyjack (10pts)

Link to result sheets.

 

[Riku]

Good evening movie-goers and home theatre stremers! Is the time for the traditional Mangahelpers Oscars guessing game!​

Rules:

• Include your actual Mangahelpers username when you vote
• You can vote as many times as you want, but only your latest vote is valid
• The player with the most correct guesses wins
  • In case of an tie, the short film categories work as tie breakers. They do not count to the overall score, they only matter in solving ties.
  • If there is still a tie after the short film tiebreaker, the one with the most correct picks in "The Big 5" categories wins (Best Film, Director, Lead Actor/Actress, Adapted/Original Screenplay)
• Include your actual Mangahelpers username when you vote. Yes, you have read this twice now. It's twice here for a reason. DONT FORGET THE USERNAME
  • If you don't see your name appearing to the participants list in a few days, PM @Riku

Schedule:

• The deadline is Monday 13th of March 00.00 (midnight, GMT) // Sunday 12th of March 5PM(PT) 8PM(ET)
• Countdown

Click Here to Vote

Spoiler: List of participants this far

- Riku
- @jimmyjack
- @Arjuna
- @Huerta171
- @Faust
- @Thehoennhippo
- @voaneves
- @Organizized
- @Eigengrau
- @George Monkey

 

[Faust]

Subs

 

[Organizized]

The Supporting Actress race is very tough this year... the three-way race between Basset, Curtis and Condon is probably the tightest out of all categories.

 

[Faust]

submitted an initial prediction.

 

[Brandish μ]

Prince of Tennis

Think you posted here by mistake?

Do you have any Oscar predictions this year?

 

[Organizized]

Also sent a first prediction, will probably change my mind on a few of the categories again before the ceremony...

Only a handful of real "locks" this year, most categories have at least two strong contenders that I keep leaning between.

 

[Riku]

Yeah it's tricky. I still don't think it is gonna be a full landslide to EEAaO, but still I tend to slide towards it in all categories.might be personal bias.

 

[Organizized]

Same... I do think Blanchett has a chance over Yeoh, Top Gun could take Editing, Banshees has a good chance at OG Screenplay if voters wanna spread the wealth etc.... bit I still went with EEAAO in almost every category it's in. For now, that is, might still change my mind.

 

[Eigengrau]

Will post my thoughts soon, still want to watch Del Toro's Pinocchio and Aftersun though at this point they shouldn't influence too much (or at all) my final picks.

I think it's an interesting year, there's a lot of categories that seem really unpredictable to me. I'm not expecting a sweep from EEAAO but I'm siding with most of its noms.

 

[George Monkey]

"All is Grace" -- Robert Bresson.

 

[Eigengrau]

Alright, I'll be seeing Aftersun either tonight or tomorrow, but for now I guess I can share some of my thoughts, I have yet to submit my picks though.
~
Best Picture:
Out of all 10 films, I have not seen Top Gun, Avatar, Fabelmans and Elvis.
"All Quiet on the Western Front" is not something I expected to see nominated, like, at all.
Film was fine but I didn't think it was Oscar material, so all those nominations kinda took me by surprise.

"Triangle of Sadness" shouldn't be on there, in my opinion.

My pick is going for "Everything Everywhere All At Once".
Even though "Banshees" and "Tár" are also likely candidates, I just think it's pretty amazing to have witnessed the road "Everything(...)" has been on since it premiered.

An arguably "small", silly movie with a lot of heart, that swept a lot of people off their feet and has been doing pretty good in the awards scene. I know you got the Russo brothers involved as well and all, but to me this is like as "underdog" as you can get, it's kind of a miracle to me that it got this far and with 11 nominations to boot.

I don't believe it will sweep like "Return of the King" did, but I am really rooting for this one.
Also picking it for Directing, Original Screenplay, Editing(?),
~
For very similar reasons, I am picking Brendan Fraser for Best Actor.
As someone who knew him mostly from comedies, know about his irl problems, seeing him in this strong role and how genuinely emotional and appreciative you can see him at award shows...

I feel like he owned his character a lot more than Colin Farrell in "Banshees".
I'm cool with either winning, but I am really hoping for Fraser.
Like I said, I haven't seen Aftersun, but I very much doubt I'd place Pascal's performance above those 2.

But yeah his whole situation and how he's had this triumphant return and reception, is pretty much how I feel regarding Ke Huy Quan, no doubt in my mind he's the absolute 100% lock of the night for Supporting Actor. If there's any category I want to be right about, it's this one.
~
Best Animated Film:
Saw "Pinocchio" last night and I gotta say, very unimpressed.
It's probably gonna win, like my previous picks, I'm just gonna bank it on the underdog as well, "Marcel The Shell With Shoes On".
I didn't loooove it, it was missing a little something to really make it into my favorites of the year, but as a whole I think it's much more deserving of the Oscar.
~
Best Actress:
I'm fine with either Blanchett or Yeoh, I think Blanchett is the likely one to win.
~

That's what I'll say for now, might post my full picks later on.

--- Double Post Merged, Mar 11, 2023, Original Post Date: Mar 10, 2023 ---

Really undecided between Tár and Bardo for Best Cinematography.

I feel like Bardo deserves it a lot more but I don't think the film was that well-received or even that had much of a presence during awards' run.

 

[Organizized]

Can't remember who I predicted last time so I'll submit again later just to be sure... maybe it'll be mostly the same, we'll see.

Got a day off tomorrow so I'll stay up watching.

--- Double Post Merged, Mar 12, 2023, Original Post Date: Mar 12, 2023 ---

Butler vs Fraser is really tough... the stats they've both got for/against them weigh so equally that I just don't know who to go for.

Since Ke Huy Quan is bound to win Supporting, and everyone knows we'll see his "comeback moment", I'm not so sure Fraser's "comeback story" aspect is enough, but we'll see.

--- Double Post Merged, Mar 12, 2023 ---

I'm fine with either Blanchett or Yeoh, I think Blanchett is the likely one to win.

Blanchett is one of my favorite Actresses, but even so I've been team Yeoh ever since I saw EEAAO... until the other night I watched Tár and it's arguably one of Blanchett's very best performances ever, so I won't even be mad if she wins. If it was simply about who put in the best performance, and no narratives (Yeoh first Asian winner, Blanchett already has two Oscars etc), I think Blanchett would be a lock.

But as it stands it's a very tight race between them I think, and I've got Yeoh ultimately taking it.

 

[Riku]

Last minute tag spam!

@avietar @Erinyes @im.me @xi0 @minion

--- Double Post Merged, Mar 12, 2023, Original Post Date: Mar 12, 2023 ---

@SharkBait @Sapphic Spider

--- Double Post Merged, Mar 12, 2023 ---

@Charlie @Evil3ye @goldb @PhillyG @ForgottenDragon

--- Double Post Merged, Mar 12, 2023 ---

@Brandish μ @FetherMan @Raven @Farfalla

--- Double Post Merged, Mar 12, 2023 ---

Aand I think that's all previous participants and movie thread regulars.

 

[Evil3ye]

OK. A per usual no idea what I'm doing but it's done.

 

[Riku]

Oh no, I didn't tag @Kiki But you found here anyways!

I won't be doing my usual live commentation tonight, since I need to leave to work at 6am (and the gala end around 5am in my zone).

I ended up going pretty much a landslide to EEOA afterall. As much as I wanted to give it to Curtis and the costuming, ended up with Condon and Elvis in those eventually. I guess my "risk" picks were John Williams for OST and Fire of Love for documentary. I think documentary is likely going to Navalny, but as as film Fire of Love was so much better, that I had to just pick it.

 

[Eigengrau]

Since Ke Huy Quan is bound to win Supporting, and everyone knows we'll see his "comeback moment", I'm not so sure Fraser's "comeback story" aspect is enough, but we'll see.

Naturally IRL situations shouldn't really have an "impact" on this sort of stuff, but since his "cancellation" was all industry related, it could be that they also want to give him the Oscar so they can pat themselves on the back ("see, look, he's one of us again").

Blanchett is one of my favorite Actresses, but even so I've been team Yeoh ever since I saw EEAAO... until the other night I watched Tár and it's arguably one of Blanchett's very best performances ever, so I won't even be mad if she wins. If it was simply about who put in the best performance, and no narratives (Yeoh first Asian winner, Blanchett already has two Oscars etc), I think Blanchett would be a lock.

But as it stands it's a very tight race between them I think, and I've got Yeoh ultimately taking it.

I agree, watching Tár was one of those experiences where I stop completely recognizing the actor, and only see the character, which is a very good thing.
It was a very good performance, and while both movies have almost the same runtime, Tár just ended up being a lot more focused on Blanchett's character, of course it's also an extremely different film, slower, not action packed, so it also feels like you're in there with that character for a much longer time, not to mention the thicc script that gives Tár's character a lot more to go on.

I picked Cate Blanchett but I really almost wanted to just side with every single EEAAO nomination.
I think I went 8/11?

I ended up going pretty much a landslide to EEOA afterall. As much as I wanted to give it to Curtis and the costuming, ended up with Condon and Elvis in those eventually. I guess my "risk" picks were John Williams for OST and Fire of Love for documentary. I think documentary is likely going to Navalny, but as as film Fire of Love was so much better, that I had to just pick it.

On the documentary side, I only watched Fire of Love and All That Breathes a few days ago.

I wasn't a super fan of both; Fire of Love (my pick) was super well made, and while you get to see a bit of the couple and their quirkiness, I don't think there was a lot of "meat" to it. But again, the footage selection, sound design, animations, super incredible.

All That Breathes is also super well made, very cinematic, but I think they cared to much about the aesthetic and the actual content ended up in the background, which is a real shame.



I think, same as last year, I'll probably listen/watch it on a stream if I can find one, I'm not as excited as I used to be to watch the whole damn thing,not because of the duration but mostly because I really can't deal with the cringe and second hand embarassment, I'm already rolling my eyes at the puns/callbacks to the slap...

But I'll admit, I think it's a very good year with some pretty cool nominations (for instance, I saw Aftersun last night, and it's pretty cool that it got a lead actor nomination -> is getting recognition) any other year I'd be glued to the screen just to see if EEAAO pulls off a magical night, but year after year there's just less and less stuff I can deal with, like them always cutting the winners' speeches short, so disrespectful.

Man I'm getting old complaining about this sort of crap

 

[Organizized]

Who the f is winning Supporting Actress, man...

Basset has the "overdue, career achievement" narrative going, won the Golden Globe and the Critics Choice but neither of those have any voter crossover with Oscars... still, she has a lot of support and love from the industry. Oscars don't usually love Marvel movies though..

Jamie Lee Curtis won the SAG which is the best of the precursors for predicting Oscars, she also has the "career achievement" narrative going for her and is in the frontrunner for Best Picture... but she and Hsu could easily split the votes from the EEAAO fans among voters and end up worse for it.

Condon is my personal favorite of the bunch. She won the BAFTA, and in years when there's no clear frontrunner that's usually the precursor to look to. Also, since I decided to go for EEAAO in Original Screenplay, I think this is the only place Banshees can be rewarded..

Super tight race, I'll probably decide on a whim last minute.

--- Double Post Merged, Mar 12, 2023, Original Post Date: Mar 12, 2023 ---

Finally watched The Whale, and I'll just say... I'll be super disappointed Austin Butler wins Best Actor over Brendan Fraser. I thought Fraser might have been carried this far mostly because it's his big "comeback" but he really did do an excellent job.

I'm still predicting Butler for Elvis but... I'm really hoping I'm wrong. Honestly, his is my least favorite performance out all the Best Actor nominees (even though his performance was good too).

Farrell would be my pick there, followed by Fraser, Nighy, Pascal and then Butler.

--- Double Post Merged, Mar 13, 2023 ---

Supporting Actress gave the most anguish to predict. Glad they're announcing it early so I can stop lamenting over it. (After our beautiful boy Ke Huy Quan gets his, ofc. )

--- Double Post Merged, Mar 13, 2023 ---

Ah well. I was almost sure I'd get that one wrong. Congrats to Jamie Lee! Wasn't my personal fav but look... this could be a sign that EEAAO is going for the sweep.

--- Double Post Merged, Mar 13, 2023 ---

Seems I REALLY overestimated how much the Academy liked Elvis.

The loss in Make-up/Hairstyling and Costume really doesn't bode well for Butler in Actor and now I'm mad I switched away from Fraser in my second prediction.

But also, I didn't like Elvis much, so

 

[Eigengrau]

13 points.

 

[Organizized]

I got 15, realized as soon as Elvis wasn't winning stuff that I wasn't gonna win either. But very glad with the winners.

 

[Eigengrau]

Should be an easy sweep for @George Monkey