Politics Protests in the wider Arab world

[kkck]

I meant resources in the most general way so basically anything that could be used by either side. Anyways, I did not get the impression the rebels had more equipment than gadaffi's forces. A couple of days ago Gadaffi's forces were about to annihilate them for that very reason from what I read. As far as I know the UN is not giving equipment to the rebels yet.

Wonder how guerrilla warefare would work for Gadaffi though. The allied powers should have plenty of experience fighting in a dessert right now and a dessert does not really provide places to hide or cover. Adding in that Libya won't have air defenses a few fays from now I doubt such a thing would be the best of ideas. If the Guerrilla were against the rebels alone then it would perhaps be effective but if the foreign powers make a definitive move against Gaddafi I can't imagine things working out for him.

 

[Akainu]

it was some days ago after they started the operation that I heard in the news how there are suddenly heavy weapons coming in for the rebels. neither do I know if this claims are right nor when this started, but if it is, then they get support from somewhere outside, which in turn means that stuff has to come from somewhere, but was there really enough time for outside powers to get their equipment there? that's all very mysterious and wasn't repeated often so it might have been a hoax.

anyway, news also said the no-fly-zone was helping the rebels in a sense not that they were supported, but that gaddafis troups were cut off supply, so the rebels will gain control in the Cyrenaica and probably establish a second state there. some weeks ago I couldn't imagine that happening, but the UN might have indirectly cemented this fate.

as for other protests, there seems to be some movement in Yemen at the moment with high ranked generals changing sides and President Saleh being said to resign in 2012 after parliamentary elections rather than 2013 when his term would end, at the same time warning his people of a civil war.
makes me wonder if people will accept that <_<

 

[NNM]

was there really enough time for outside powers to get their equipment there? that's all very mysterious and wasn't repeated often so it might have been a hoax.

No, it's not a rumor. Dailymail wrote an article about SAS units who's been helping rebels since February. Just like USSR soldiers in Vietnam.

Wonder how guerrilla warefare would work for Gadaffi though. The allied powers should have plenty of experience fighting in a dessert right now and a dessert does not really provide places to hide or cover. Adding in that Libya won't have air defenses a few fays from now I doubt such a thing would be the best of ideas. If the Guerrilla were against the rebels alone then it would perhaps be effective but if the foreign powers make a definitive move against Gaddafi I can't imagine things working out for him.

He has THE manpower. I doubt UN is mad enough to kill all of his forces. They'll surrender eventually, but this won't stop them from helping guerrilla.

 

[Naruto-4-hokage]

Situtations are developing very fast in many countries.....
-It seems bahrain has calmed down a bit but would it be the end of it or is it the calm that precedes the storm?

-in Yemen many tribal leaders and army leaders and ambassadors around the world has declared their support to the revolution and some of them has already joined it, though the majority of the army is still with the Yemeni president and the defense minister announced publicly that the army will support the president, and while this development seems dangerous(the division of the army) it still hasn't resulted but a few minor clashes and it seem both groups are careful not to turn this situation to a civil war or a blood bath which is good, i got a feeling that Saleh's departure is approaching all the odds seems to be against him right now and as for his over to leave the authority at 2012 , i doubt anyone will accept that because they will see it as a bluff , a way to earn himself more time so they wouldn't accept it even if it is true, also the emergency law is now declared in Yemen so we shall see how will this go...
NOTE:emergency law was declared in egypt thirty years ago and was still running till now and during the revolution there was a curfew too but that didn't stop the people so i doubt it will have any effect in yemen.

-The situation in Syria is starting to get hotter and hotter , mainly the demonstartions are in Daraa city there was a lot of gun fire yesterday and today the cell phone service id disconnected from the city, Syria is a tough case for a revolution to succeed , it's far totalitarian ruling than any other system i know about , you should know that messenger and facebook was banned there until a very short time (though syrians used to overcome this ban by many ways) and it's record in freedom issue is very bad so i just hope that the situation won't be developed to a very violent one , but anyway if there's a lesson to learn throughout those past months is that these systems are actually very weak though it promotes itself as a very strong and in control systems.

-For Libya case, it seems the UN might revise its decision or modify it but anyway i feel that people here are reading the situation wrongly...
again even though the fighting is on i expect it to end once gadaffi rule ends , you have to remember that the "rebels" actually didn't start with attacking , the cities has fallen easily in their hands at first because the idea of central state was destroyed by gadaffi "genious theories" , though they had some support from some army officers , gadaffi military power is stilll exceeds them , Gadaffi is not defending Libya or himself he is defending his throne and rule he won't leave it easily , his sons are no better than him and after the declaration that usa had frozen 31.5 billion of Gadaffi's assets in USA alone and after the death toll of the demonstartors and rebels i doubt that they will surrender easily too but i totally doubt the guerilla war scenario ,there's still no such indication for this but it might happen in the future (from rebels not gadaffi) or at least i think so , but i may be wrong.

 

[Roflkopt3r]

I'm quite glad that some nations took responsibility about Lybia and I couldn't really fnd stuff about "selfish" reasons for them besides reputation:
-France and GB took initiative, because they knew it would be good for their reputation internationally and nationaly (for the government).
-Other nations followed when the Arabs themselves decided to stand against Gaddafi
-Russia actually is sided with Gaddafi (cuz he buys so many of their weapons), but decided that he isn't worth the trouble with the US anymore, as they started more US-friendly politics with Medvedev and his personel
-China doesn't really like Gaddafi, because he critized their "colonial behaviour" in Africa because they did not work with the association of african nations. It's funny, they turn against him for one of the few positive things he did when showing some backbone
On the other side they had good economic relations to his government, but decided that that alone isn't worth siding with him.

Overall, yearning for reputation can be a good thing in this case, because it means "we do the thing everyone considers right". Shows how populism can work out for the better end.
Again, I'm quite ashamed of our government to not have clearly sided themselves with the revolution and against the dictator. But it's not like there was anything else to be expected of this cowardish right wing government (CDU & FDP).
This is the prime exampe of a righteous war imo.

 

[LoneLobo]

@Roflkopt3r: First of all, nobody knows what the CDU and FDP is, so you could just drop that information. And they are not really right wing, unless you are part of the Antifa...
Another thing... you call them cowardish, but they just did the same thing everyone else did: selfish reasons. GB and France did it for a good reputation to the world, Germany did it for a good reputation in Germany. Deploying our army in other countries is not popular here. Every government is doing things because they are selfish...
Before you start do say that I'm against the war in Lybia... I'm not. I myself think that they should have joined the others in the war and that not doing so was a very stupid move.

Actually I wanted to contribute more to the topic, but I will do that later.

 

[Roflkopt3r]

I don't mean to tell that they're nazi, they're just on the right side of the left-to-right spectrum. It's just that "right wing" is so easily associated with nazis here that they rather call themselves the "bürgerliche" Parteien (bourgeois parties).

 

[kkck]

Just read a few hours ago that according to USA intelligence Gadaffi's army is planting bodies of people they killed to make it look like the allied forces killed them. On one hand, it is easy to see why Gadaffi would do such a thing and why such information would overall be faked. On the other hand, the allied forces right now are only going after targets which would present a threat to the no fly zone which they are trying (or already succeeded) to make. In that sense, why would there be civilians at this places? Even if they are going after tanks and other forms of artillerie it would still be weird to find civilians at such locations. Civilian casualties are common in wars but this is rather unusual IMO. What does everyone think?

 

[Akainu]

well there were reports the royal ariforce had to cancel one of their attacks because there was a report about civilians gathering near the facility they wanted to bomb.
the thing is, they are very freely defining what they can bomb for the no fly zone and therefore they bomb command-infrastructure in Tripolis.
Gaddafi on the same note uses this - presumably by paying people, for example I heard they pay whole schoolclasses for 40$ per person - to protect these places. The paying people stuff still works quite well I heard. just recently he promoted all of the remaining military. that's a weird move, but nonetheless ...
What's happening there is quite weird too, I mean Gaddafis troups retreating and the rebels going so fast, that seems too easy and bombing the frontlines like this isn't exactly maintaining the no-fly-zone or protecting citizens <.<;

 

[kkck]

Well, from what I read the rebels were not actually advancing even with the advantage given by the no fly zone and bombings.... I don't think things are working out very well for them, the no fly zone merely even things out a bit basically.

Paying people to go to potential targets in order to act as human shields would overall work but are people in Libya that desperate? From what I read before about the place things were not overall that bad. Even then, paid human shields won't work forever.... The allied countries have to bomb the hell out of one of this places and that would be the last anyone ever heard of such a thing. It is an incredibly cruel thing to do by all parties but if it comes to it I doubt they would hesitate for long.

 

[Akainu]

weird how this slowed down here, just like our news that hardly cover any of the arab revolutions anymore and then act all surprised about continued protest in Egypt.
also aside from a few reports no one seems to care about snipers shooting protesters in Syria
(partly it's due to the earthquake/tsunami/nuclear power that overshadowed the rest, however that is by now also marginalized in media coverage <.<)

 

[k-dom]

And Ivory coast. As a former colony it has taken over all the other international subjects in France. So I heard they may be a start of cease fire discussion in Lybia

 

[kkck]

Well, the cease fire was thoroughly refused and some countries are gonna start directly supplying the rebels for their cause so we have some nice developments in the last couple of days. I think it is a matter of time until the international community actually directly attaks Gadaffi's army (past a no fly zone obviously). Honestly, anything short of that are simply half measures really and only prolong the conflict.

 

[DLord.Van.Buuren]

Syria is faceing major upraisings from the people.

Seems that alassad is acting stupid just like the ones before him.

 

[kkck]

Gaddafi's son and 3 of his grandchildren were killed in an attempt to kill Gaddafi. I can understand why Gaddafi would be targeted, it even makes sense but I feel bad for his grandchildren as they were kids. Wonder how Gaddafi will react to this though. He was an angry dictator who held all power in the country so his reaction to this events is without a doubt relevant to the war. He could go nuts and scalate the war to a new level which is dangerous for everyone. Of couse going nuts by these events could also cause him to lose credibility from his supporters. He is a man used to fighting so perhaps him being affected in such a way that he would just lose his will to fight is unlikely. Most likely he will make a martyr out of his son and grandchildren....