Match Tokugawa vs. Oni

[ybr99]

Who is stronger Tokugawa or Oni

 

[Kaoz]

Is this a one set match or a three set match?

 

[ybr99]

3 set

 

[Kaoz]

I was gonna say in a Bo3 it's definitely Oni, but now I remembered that his stats should be much lower than Byoudouin's, so I'm as certain anymore. Tokugawa definitely can't use Black Hole throughout the entire match in any case. He can still use it to close out the match though. Also, in general Tokugawa's other special moves won't work on Oni.

I guess overall I'm giving it to Tokugawa? Reason being that if Oni = Tanegashima, Byoudouin (no special moves because they'd get nullified) > Tanegashima and Tokugawa = Byoudouin (no special moves), Tokugawa should at least be on par with Oni still as far as normal rallies are concerned and he can probably take one of the first two sets and then use Black Hole to win the last one. But not sure, half-expecting that I'll change my mind within the next half hour.

 

[Phantron]

Tokugawa is obviously meant to be stronger than Oni since Oni basically hasn't played seriously for the last 2 years and can't just pick up where he left off. He's not even supposed to be able to use Kishin on demand anymore (Byodoin was surprised Oni's power returned to what it was 2 years ago!) so Oni has a ton of rust compared to Tokugawa. Now if Oni had even a few weeks to catch up on what he's been missing he'd totally slaughter Tokugawa. Asura no Shindo loses to Kishin since Asura is basically Byodoin at H1 when he lost to Oni, and Black Hole isn't a factor because first, Oni doesn't have a particularly aggressive attacking style (I always assume Black Hole is effective on Byodoin because he's ultra aggressive so if you return his shot he's screwed), and second, how does Oni teach Tokugawa Black Hole if he can't use it himself? Was it like 'I found this ancient tome on this technique, I have never been able to do it myself but I'll teach you this technique!' I don't think Oni would need to use Black Hole anyway since he seems to be just a basic moves guy which makes Black Hole not that effective. When Tokugawa used the Black Hole to stop Volk's serve, there was nothing noteworthy about the return, because that was just a normal serve from Volk. He's obviously played people who can return his serve so it's not like stopping the serve with Black Hole does anything. Black Hole might be able to nullify anything (so far), but if the opponent is not very aggressive, it's still just a returned shot.

 

[Kaoz]

Well, do you think Tokugawa can't score against Oni in regular rallies?

 

[ybr99]

I don't know why you say he has rust. He might not have improved as much as he could have, but he did not get rusty. Oni is not the type of person to just stop. We have seen him rallying with tokugawa with 10 balls at a time. Most of byoudin's techniques are making multiple ball, so Oni can still play with the big guys. He beat #5 easily, he now has PoP, and he definitely practices everyday. He has top tier players to practice against(irie,tokugawa, and tanageshima)

---------- Post added at 08:06 PM ---------- Previous post was at 09:10 AM ----------

I think Oni is overall stronger but in a match between these two Tokugawa will win

 

[Phantron]

Tokugawa's rally level is basically barely better than Byodoin was at H1 because the score was a 6-6 tie and 6-5 tiebreaker, so obviously as impressive as Asura no Shindou looks like, it's still barely better than what Oni/Byodoin can do normally at H1 (this is assuming Byodoin kept his level at H1 level, which seems quite reasonable given he's literally trying to recreate the same scene). Any kind of additional powerup (Kishin, TnK, whatever) will easily smoke Tokugawa at this point. Now, Oni has been taking it easy for so long that he literally forgot that he had some auras/moves and sure going forward he'd be at full power, but I take it to mean that currently his power is still kind of erratic, as in he won't be able to use all his powers unless it's an opponent he feels like playing. Tokugawa said he has never seen Oni going all out, so this means Oni doesn't even particularly care about Tokugawa in terms of an opponent to go max power, and not saying he's belittling him or whatever, but it's just that Oni, similar to Fuji, has a hard time hitting his max power unless they got the right opponent.

 

[felixng2011]

Tokugawa really isn't anything special without Black Hole. Its only a matter of whether he can take two sets before black hole runs out. After that he gets smoked. He won't even be able to take a single game.

 

[ybr99]

Tokugawa can do 10 balls, defeated the entire camp in his first year with the exception of 2 or 3 people, can do the glowing shot, and has had special training from 2of strongest people in camp.

 

[Kaoz]

(this is assuming Byodoin kept his level at H1 level, which seems quite reasonable given he's literally trying to recreate the same scene)

So wait, how much of a gap do you think there is in terms of stats between H1 level Byoudouin and H3 level Byoudouin? I know, cannot be measured, but take a guess. Going with this line of thought and assuming Tokugawa's fanbook stats are actually accurate (do you think they are?), that would be around 22? If that is the case though, I think Black Hole bridges a greater gap than what we've been saying so far.

 

[Phantron]

So wait, how much of a gap do you think there is in terms of stats between H1 level Byoudouin and H3 level Byoudouin? I know, cannot be measured, but take a guess. Going with this line of thought and assuming Tokugawa's fanbook stats are actually accurate (do you think they are?), that would be around 22? If that is the case though, I think Black Hole bridges a greater gap than what we've been saying so far.

In terms of baseline I think he's close to the same. So far, the only person who has a base rally level much stronger than Oni/Tokugawa/Byodoin is Volk, who is obviously meant to be the strongest guy so far in NPOT, and it's an amount that can still be bridged by Black Hole. I think Byodoin just got better at controlling his moves. Most notably, instead of Pirates of the America it's now Pirates of the World, which seems to suggest all his moves got upgraded as he got better proficiency with his pirate aura. I think Tokugawa's stats are before he had Asura no Shindou because with that he should be able to comfortably beat anyone not Oni/Byodoin so that'd put his stats at least higher than Tanegashima. At least, I never got the impression that Tanegashima was ever going to try to challenge Byodoin for the #1 spot but Tokugawa was making a credible shot at it.

Oni said he awakened Byodoin's pirate aura, and unless the point is that he happens to never show up in Japan's international games (he was at least present in the game against Duke) there's no way he could've missed that, so I take it to mean that pirate/Kishin aura isn't something you see very often even by the guys with it. Or it could be that Oni is just totally out of the loop since he's been taking it easy for so long, but I find it hard to believe that he didn't even at least watched Byodoin's games. So my conclusion is that looking at base level rally it's probably something like Tokugawa > Byodoin >= Oni, and for some reason unknown to us, there are good reasons to believe that Byodoin/Oni do not have their respective auras for everyone besides the two characters themselves. Well, Oni doesn't have it because he forgotten about it, but Byodoin must have something similar unless Oni just never happened to be present in any game where Byodoin went all out.

 

[felixng2011]

Tokugawa can do 10 balls, defeated the entire camp in his first year with the exception of 2 or 3 people, can do the glowing shot, and has had special training from 2of strongest people in camp.

His base abilities are still nothing special which is my point. He can't even react to a generic serve from Volk and was completely helpless against Kijin Byodoin.

He would get 6-0ed by POP Tezuka at this point with no Black Hole which is disappointing to say the least. Basically he is like a rich man's Tezuka before he unlocked POP and improved his base abilities dramatically. Tezuka just spammed Tezuka Phantom to try to win, Tokugawa spams Black Hole. Both are gimmick abilities with massive drawbacks that won't be as useful against a good opponent in a 3 set match forget about 5 set match.

Maybe I am being overly critical but my overall impression is poor. Based on his abilities so far it looks like Oni and Irie wasted their time. Oni could be so much stronger if he didn't lose his ambition.

 

[ybr99]

We've only seen his match with byoudin who is the #1 player in japan and has traveled the world learning new techniques so you can't say that he isn't good because he had to use black hole.
Volk has never lost a game is the top player of the top country in the world and was able to destroy PoP tezuka so from someone who has never played with top level pro players to return miss the first serve is not that crazy.
I agree his base stats are lacking but so are all of japans players when you compare them to other countries. Japan is not even close to the to countries like germany france and america.

 

[Phantron]

Black Hole indeed has a serious flaw in that it assumes you can take a set in a 3 set match without it, because even in real life it's hard to win 2 sets in 30 minutes let alone POT where people play John Isner style games all the time. That means if Tokugawa's opponent has a reliable move that can be used for 2 sets in a row he has no chance of winning. Remember that it was only close because Byodoin made the second dumbest decision in POT to try to recreate the same scenario as two years ago (just above Hirakoba using all his energy in one move while serving for triple match point) so Tokugawa won the first set without having to resort to Black Hole early. If Byodoin used pirate aura at say 3-3, it's probably not going to last long enough, not that there isn't even a particular reason to not use pirate aura as soon as the game starts since it seems to have no significant drawback (maybe makes you tired, but certainly not life threatening like Black Hole).

 

[ybr99]

You can use black hole to win one set. Then the question is can he beat oni without it.
I think he can. He can beat byoudin when he's playing at H1 level without it. The match would be close seeing as they practice with eachother alot.

 

[Phantron]

But remember Tokugawa never saw Kishin either. Kishin is probably the same tier as pirate aura and Tokugawa can't do anything against pirate aura without Black Hole. Tokugawa might have the best base rally level without a power up but that doesn't help when his opponent does have a powerup with no apparent limitation on the duration and 30 minutes is too short to win 2 sets. The only scenario it can work is if his opponent (Oni, in this case) for some reason didn't go all out at the beginning to let him sneak some freebie games in before he has to use Black Hole. It's true that people in POT seems to hold back for no apparent reason even when their full power has no drawbacks and is just plain dominant but I don't think you can just count on that to get around the limitation of the Black Hole.

 

[ybr99]

Can oni do kishin whenever he wants or does he need a catalyst?

 

[-Ken-]

Seems like he can activate it whenever he want for me.

 

[ybr99]

Everybody was surprised when he did it playing toyama so i assume he hasn't done it in a while. Which means he either didn't need to or he couldn't. I don't think oni would hold that back when playing tanageshima and unless tanageshima is better than kishin oni(I don't think so) than he can't do it.