Mag Talk Weekly Shonen Jump [2011 - 2012] - Discussion and TOC Talk

[Oberon]

Re: Weekly Shonen Jump [2011] - Discussion and TOC Talk - Part 2

Cover WSJ #01:

Credits: JJT

 

[Zeromcd]

Re: Weekly Shonen Jump [2011] - Discussion and TOC Talk - Part 2

Kagami no Kuni no Harisugawa could possibly be ending soon if the spoiler for chapter 21 turn out to be true.

Harisugawa Chapter 21 Spoiler

Spoiler

針栖川は松川に、里見も好きだが松川も好きだと告白し鏡が割れる。
The mirror breaks as Harisugawa confesses to Saki that even though he loves Mao, he also loves her (Saki).

This spoiler isn't confirmed but Kagami no Kuni's early spoilers aren't really ever confirmed and usually turn out to be right. I do hope it's real because it is interesting but I hope it's not because i dont want the series to end. I really the series and Kano

 

[Josl]

Re: Weekly Shonen Jump [2011] - Discussion and TOC Talk - Part 2

I took the five longest running series in WSJ(minus HxH and Kochikame) to be able to so the “long time trends” of the series.

2008 Jump Comic Series Sale Rankings
1. ONE PIECE - 5,956,540
2. NARUTO - 4,261,054
4. REBORN! - 3,371,618
5. BLEACH - 3,161,825
10. Gintama - 2,390,196

2009 Jump Comic Series Sale Rankings
1. ONE PIECE - 14,721,241
2. NARUTO - 6,836,494
5. BLEACH - 6,471,021
7. Gintama - 4,733,511
8. REBORN! - 3,694,323

2010 Jump Comic Series Sale Rankings
1. ONE PIECE - 32,343,809
2. NARUTO - 7,409,068
5. BLEACH - 5,204,193
7. Gintama - 3,978,439
8. REBORN! - 3,479,219

2011 Jump Comic Series Sale Rankings
1. ONE PIECE - 37,996,373
2. NARUTO - 6,874,840
6. Gintama - 4,415,491
8. BLEACH - 4,187,258
17. REBORN! - 2,550,542

Now my comments;

I believe this is the “end” for One Piece record breaking streak. There can’t be much more people left who didn’t read OP and think of reading it. In the next few years the sales should go down and stabilize somewhere around 20 Million until the end “arc” of OP where than anyone who stopped reading it will start and something similar to what happend 2010 will happen again.
Can it be that there were fewer volumes in 2011 than in 2010 because I thought Naruto will sell more because of the “war”?
Bleach peak was 2009 and it has lost about 1 million sales per year since than
Gintama is incredible stable
Reborn used to be stable but lost this year 1 million on sales
Torikos advertisement campaign did really help boost its sales.

 

[Kaiten]

Re: Weekly Shonen Jump [2011] - Discussion and TOC Talk - Part 2

One Piece is selling eight times the number of copies now that it sold three years ago. Every trend points upward: individual volume sales rise every year, total sales rise every year, copies published rise every year. In a country of 130 million people, tenth largest in the world, there is no grounds to ever speculate that Shueisha will ever run out of new readers. Until there are no longer children in Japan, mass illiteracy, or conversely Japanese babies are born literate. There will always be new fans: those who have heard of but had heretofore avoided reading, those who do not read Jump, children who are just old enough to read shounen manga, those who had been reading in the magazine but not buying the tankobon. Over an infinite timeline One Pieces sales are guaranteed to plateau and decline. The only guarantee is that Shueisha will run out of readers, that is physically impossible. Trends may change, One Piece may go out of style, new series can rise but there will always be more people who have not read One Piece than do.

Additionally, there is no reason to believe that One Pieces circulation will decline to 20 million per year in the immediate future. A 50% decline in sales would be a business disaster of untold proportions. In the case of One Piece that would erase all sales gained since 2009, and be a massive loss of money for Shueisha. To fall that far in a few years would also indicate that growth had completed stalled and reversed into catastrophic loss. Over a long enough time frame losing 17 million readers is not the end of the world, if One Piece were to run another 20 years it would be expected. Over a time line of five years or shorter, for a series making the percentage gains One Piece has made, slower growth would be acceptable. Losing 40-50% of 37 million in sales in five years or less would be apocalyptic, a cut into profits that no one at Shueisha would even be willing to contemplate.

Based on the earliest posted date, 2008, no series has lost readers yet. Naruto, Bleach, Reborn, and Gintama are simply moving back to the mean. Decline in sales could be as simple as book stores over ordering in 2009 - 2010, and scaling back for 2011. It's hard to attribute this to plot development, predicting sales based on other peoples taste is impossible. If it were possible hits would be completely predictable and market research would be a scientific process. In reality retailers likely predicted market trends incorrectly, bought to many books, and have scaled back orders for the titles in question. While trends point downwards, sales have not dropped below those in 2008 for any series, with Naruto still above 2009 sales and among the most popular manga in Japan.

 

[SoulEaterFreak]

Re: Weekly Shonen Jump [2011] - Discussion and TOC Talk - Part 2

Don't know if it was already made, but I took a few minutes and made a "wallpaper" with the 2011 Covers.



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

 

[Kaiten]

Re: Weekly Shonen Jump [2011] - Discussion and TOC Talk - Part 2

And never forget: The number posted are devoid of meaning. For those of us who do not work for Shueisha, they are a nice way to measure one series but do not indicate anything deeper. The only number of any importance to Shueisha is profit margin. As long as a series turns enough of a profit, it is an asset to Shueisha. A long running series is not cancelled until it's profit margin is to low a percentage. Sales of long running series can drop, so long as the profit margin remains high enough. Volume sales do not indicate profit margin as there are variables we do not know including production costs, licensing fees for anime, merchandise, video games, and international markets as well as numerous other avenues of profit and loss invisible to fans. A downward trend in volume sales may worry executives at Shueisha, but for older series (all discussed have been serialized seven years or longer) steady decline is likely looked at as inevitable. One Piece is an exception, an already popular series that found it's full audience ten years after beginning. Otherwise the series listed are following the natural parabola of success. Very, very little should be read into it without knowing profit and loss for each series.

 

[Host Samurai]

Re: Weekly Shonen Jump [2011] - Discussion and TOC Talk - Part 2

It's really good to see that Hunter X Hunter is doing great. How many volumes of Hunter X Hunter did Shueisha sale this year?

 

[RocketWobbuffet]

Re: Weekly Shonen Jump [2011] - Discussion and TOC Talk - Part 2

Two volumes, I think.

 

[Kaiten]

Re: Weekly Shonen Jump [2011] - Discussion and TOC Talk - Part 2

It's really good to see that Hunter X Hunter is doing great. How many volumes of Hunter X Hunter did Shueisha sale this year?

2,922,876 copies total, with two new volumes released in 2011. That total would include catalog sales, with the new volumes accounting for a little over 2 million copies.

http://www.animenewsnetwork.com/news/2011-11-30/top-selling-manga-in-japan-by-series/2011

 

[Krono]

Re: Weekly Shonen Jump [2011] - Discussion and TOC Talk - Part 2

Additionally, there is no reason to believe that One Pieces circulation will decline to 20 million per year in the immediate future. A 50% decline in sales would be a business disaster of untold proportions. In the case of One Piece that would erase all sales gained since 2009, and be a massive loss of money for Shueisha. To fall that far in a few years would also indicate that growth had completed stalled and reversed into catastrophic loss. Over a long enough time frame losing 17 million readers is not the end of the world, if One Piece were to run another 20 years it would be expected. Over a time line of five years or shorter, for a series making the percentage gains One Piece has made, slower growth would be acceptable. Losing 40-50% of 37 million in sales in five years or less would be apocalyptic, a cut into profits that no one at Shueisha would even be willing to contemplate.

That 38 million is copies sold, not individual readers. Of those sales, only 12,316,031 are from people buying new volumes released this year. And that's split up between 4 volumes, so the best measure of current OP readers would be the sales of the best selling volume which is 3,382,588. Which is up from 2,057,528 in 2009. So the rest of the 38 million sales are a portion of the 1.4 million new readers the series has in the last two years buying older volumes. The ~.7 million new readers a year required to sustain that pace is pretty unlikely. Indeed, we're already seeing the slow down in sales growth:

2008-2009 increase: *8.76 million
2009-2010 increase: 17.60 million
2010-2011 increase: *5.65 million

So that 20 million theorized sales figure isn't some unthinkable catastrophic loss of half the readership dropping things back to 2009 levels. It's the current readership getting caught up on the collecting the series, plus a reasonably good amount of growth as opposed to the insane amount of growth the series is having now.

 

[Kaiten]

Re: Weekly Shonen Jump [2011] - Discussion and TOC Talk - Part 2

That 38 million is copies sold, not individual readers. Of those sales, only 12,316,031 are from people buying new volumes released this year. And that's split up between 4 volumes, so the best measure of current OP readers would be the sales of the best selling volume which is 3,382,588. Which is up from 2,057,528 in 2009. So the rest of the 38 million sales are a portion of the 1.4 million new readers the series has in the last two years buying older volumes. The ~.7 million new readers a year required to sustain that pace is pretty unlikely. Indeed, we're already seeing the slow down in sales growth:

Actually, that is incorrect. Oricon does not track transactions at POS, their figures do not represent sales to customers. Book stores generally do not divulge that information anyway. Shueisha does not track POS transactions either, as they do not make money when a book is sold to customers. POS effects the number of copies stores order, the more they sell of a title the more they need to keep in stock. And that is what Oricon tracks: the number of units Shueisha shipped to retailers. These are generally large lots, thousands of books sold at a time. One Piece did not sell 38 million copies in 2011, 38 million units shipped in 2011. Much of that are currently located in warehouses, waiting for stores to order product replenishment. Stores loathe running out of a title, they generally order slightly more than they expect to sell in the hope that they always have a copy or two in stock, so that they do not have to turn customers away while awaiting the next shipment. So please: do not think me so naive that I really believe those 38 million copies represent 38 million readers. Nor am I naive enough to believe they represent copies sold at POS. They represent units shipped to retailers across Japan.

A drop from 38 million units shipped in 2011 to 20 million three, four, or five years from now would imply that book stores were rapidly reducing the number of lots purchased. All growth in 2012 would be wiped out, with shipments immediately declining below 2010 numbers. Book stores would continue to reduce the number of copies ordered until the gains of 2009-2010 are also wiped out, bringing total sales (including back volumes) down to 20 million units sold. If this were a rapid process, with the 23 million unit increase wiped out in five years or less, this would be a dramatic, if not catastrophic reversal implying that retailers over estimated the popularity of One Piece in the first place. Retailers would essentially be saying that growth was not only to rapid but they could reduce the number of copies ordered and still maintain a reasonable stock at all times.

2008-2009 increase: *8.76 million
2009-2010 increase: 17.60 million
2010-2011 increase: *5.65 million

So that 20 million theorized sales figure isn't some unthinkable catastrophic loss of half the readership dropping things back to 2009 levels. It's the current readership getting caught up on the collecting the series, plus a reasonably good amount of growth as opposed to the insane amount of growth the series is having now.

This presumes that these 38 million copies represent transactions at POS, actual copies purchased by customers. They represent the number of copies shipped to retailers, not purchased by customers. Numbers will rise, fall, or plateau based on the number of copies retailers believe they need to keep stores properly stocked. The numbers quoted above represent growth, in order for One Piece sales to fall to 20 million in a year that number needs to be in the negative. Units sold can not fall from 38 million copies to 20 million and still have a "good amount of growth", that is mathematically impossible. To fall to 20 million units sold, growth would have to stall, reverse, zero out, and then turn to a loss. This will inevitable happen, assuming One Piece lasts long enough. Dropping from 38 million to 20 million would represent a loss of 18 million copies, or 47% of copies sold in 2011. That is a dramatic loss, nearly half the copies shipped this year. Over a long enough time frame this would be understandable. A 40% loss in units shipped over a period of a few years would represent a major reduction of profits, likely representing tens of millions of dollars, maybe more. For any title to lose 47% in sales over a short period would be a disaster, representing a major loss to a corporation. As I said earlier: that would wipe out the gains made over the last two years, not something Shueisha would even want to contemplate.

 

[DidCart]

Re: Weekly Shonen Jump [2011] - Discussion and TOC Talk - Part 2

Guys... anyone knows ST&RS sales numbers?

 

[Zeromcd]

Re: Weekly Shonen Jump [2011] - Discussion and TOC Talk - Part 2

Guys... anyone knows ST&RS sales numbers?

It did not make it into the top 50 charts so exact numbers are not known. However, we do know that it sold less than 15,396 copies in its first week of release.

In the amazon rankings ST&RS was ranking 300-400th place which was decent for a new series, compared to the other new series like Dois Sol, Meruhen Ouji, Sengoku Armors, Ikkyu which ranked in the 1000-3000's at the time of their releases.

Kurogane is pretty much ranking exactly where ST&RS was, so it probably won't chart either.

 

[Estranho]

Re: Weekly Shonen Jump [2011] - Discussion and TOC Talk - Part 2

Kurogane is pretty much ranking exactly where ST&RS was, so it probably won't chart either.

I guess we all would know by now that rankings in the ToCs don't relate with volumes' sales. We have a lot of examples that proves it.

 

[Kaiten]

Re: Weekly Shonen Jump [2011] - Discussion and TOC Talk - Part 2

I split Saikyou Jump discussion into a separate thread. Now that it is a monthly it makes sense to have a separate thread for news and discussion. Posts from today were moved, older will remain in this thread.

http://mangahelpers.com/forum/showthread.php/74001-Saikyou-Jump-(Shueisha)

 

[Zeromcd]

Re: Weekly Shonen Jump [2011] - Discussion and TOC Talk - Part 2

The author of Nurarihyon no Mago has been blessed with a daughter. Congratulations Shiibashi-Sensei!

Source: Jump Issue #1 Author Comments

For those wondering, the author is a male and was not the person who gave birth >.>

 

[OPN]

Re: Weekly Shonen Jump [2011] - Discussion and TOC Talk - Part 2

The author of Nurarihyon no Mago has been blessed with a daughter. Congratulations Shiibashi-Sensei!

Source: Jump Issue #1 Author Comments

For those wondering, the author is a male and was not the person who gave birth >.>

congrats to shiibashi i do wonder though if this means nura will go on hiatus so he could spend time with his family but i guess we will wait and see.

 

[vampire killer]

Re: Weekly Shonen Jump [2011] - Discussion and TOC Talk - Part 2

Can someone post the selles of the all series in jump?

 

[Oberon]

Re: Weekly Shonen Jump [2011] - Discussion and TOC Talk - Part 2

Some Stuff Jump #01:

 

[Koen]

Re: Weekly Shonen Jump [2011] - Discussion and TOC Talk - Part 2

My god, the picture with Misogi Kumagawa is awesome. I love it a lot. I really hope we'll get to see that face once again in medaka box