Mag Talk Weekly Shonen Jump [2011 - 2012] - Discussion and TOC Talk

[Kaiten]

Re: Weekly Shonen Jump [2011] - Discussion and TOC Talk - Part 2

Ah. So in other words there's room for debate, and instead of erring on the side of caution, some people are choosing to err on the side of possibly premature celebration.

Seeing as we've got cases like Sengoku Armors where it was doing well in the mid range at chapter 8, and tanked at chapter 9, or ST&RS, where it got a color page at chapters 7 and 11, and proceeded to tank very hard at 12, I think I'll err on the side of caution and assume Nisekoi is not ranked yet.

I suggest rereading the quote from OP before assuming that chapters 2 - 8 are not ranked. The quote actually contradicts itself, also stating that the TOC reflects "popularity of 8 chapter ago." If the TOC does not reflect fan polls until chapter 9, that would mean the TOC does not reflect "popularity of 8 chapter ago", but popularity of nine chapters ago. Furthermore, what does it mean that chapters 2 - 8 are not ranked, why is chapter one left off? Chapter 1 is the only chapter that is obviously, definitively, not ranked. It is always first, with the exception of new gag manga like Pakki. Given the discrepancy one can glean that errors were made when making the quoted post and it needs to be taken with a grain of salt.

St&rs and Sengoku do not make for very good proof that the TOC begins reflecting fan polls at chapter nine, rather than eight. That each dropped to the bottom five at nine chapters or later only proves that to small a sample size was used. There are many examples of manga that fell from a seemingly fixed position to the bottom five after eight or fewer chapters. Meister, from early 2009 is a good example, as is 2008's Chagecha. The former collapsed after eight chapters, and was canceled after ten. Chagecha was in the bottom five by chapter seven, and canceled an issue later after eight chapters. At the other extreme, Toriko was placed in the top five by the editors, and did not leave for a year.

Furthermore the data for St&rs and Sengoku do not agree, each falling to the bottom five at a different point in serialization. Sengoku as early as chapter nine (reflecting chapter 2), and St&rs at chapter 12 (reflecting chapter 5). With each dropping after a different length of time, does this prove that there is a single, unquestionable amount of time before the TOC reflects the polls? No, it does not. All that it shows is that it takes some series longer to fall than others, if a series falls at all. It is quite possible, even likely, for a new series to grab reader attention, and poll well for a few weeks, only for interest in subsequent chapters to wain. Using Sengoku as an example, chapter one may have garnered a lot of attention and polled fairly well. But by chapter 2 interest was gone, and polls plummeted. Thus chapter 8 was relatively high in the TOC, indistinguishable from editorial placement, while chapter 9 reflected the loss in interest. A series like St&rs was able to maintain interest a couple of chapters longer, only to suffer the same fate a little later on. Meister and Chagecha would then be examples of series that fans rejected from the beginning. It would be realistic to think that something new would garner a bit of interest, only for the novelty to wear off soon thereafter.

In the case of Nisekoi it is highly unlikely that the editors will place it at number four after eight issues, only to drop it significantly the next issue. After eight weeks the editors have enough of an idea of fan response not to place an unpopular new series in the top five. It certainly could plummet after a few weeks, but it is a guarantee that it will rank very high next week as well: likely in the top seven. This we do have proper data for. There are almost no examples of a title placed in the top five by the editors only to drop to the bottom five by the ninth issue.

The fact that it takes 8 chapters for the TOC to reflect poll results has been well known since at least 2006. The source was whomever posted the TOC to 2CH at the time. While occasionally questioned the meaning of "8 chapters ago" is fairly straight forward: TOC position of chapter 8 reflects the poll results for chapter 1. There is no chapter zero, so 8 - 8 = an invalid number. As chapter one is beginning of time for any manga it has to be counted when counting to chapter 8.

 

[OPN]

Re: Weekly Shonen Jump [2011] - Discussion and TOC Talk - Part 2

i find it unlikely that nura will end since its finally going back to the whole nue situation so it probably will be moved to sq. harisugawa and st&rs are both likely to be axed especcily st&rs. i think jump will probably want to keep magico since its the longest series without a anime and they need one since they really dont have much else to green lit cept for axed series like psyren and enigma.

 

[Galactic Tomahawk]

Re: Weekly Shonen Jump [2011] - Discussion and TOC Talk - Part 2

Is it just me or do we go through this "Will Mago end" thing about every two months?

 

[Kaiten]

Re: Weekly Shonen Jump [2011] - Discussion and TOC Talk - Part 2

Whenever new cancellations are coming, just like ToLoveRu. There is almost no way that Mago ends in WSJ this winter though. We already know it is not ending in issue 7, that news would be out already, we would know when the upcoming color pages were posted. It won't end in the double issue, there would be to many uncollected chapters for two volumes (volume 20 comes out the first week of February) but not enough for three. Mago needs at least eight more issues, beginning with issue 7, before it can make a clean move.

Longevity can only work against Magico, not in it's favor. The editors already know what they have: a low selling manga that polls poorly. Volume sales have been sluggish, showing no signs of rising, let alone having the potential to be a hit. Had there been a series like Sengoku or Ikkyuu that fell to the bottom five immediately and stayed there, Magico would be spared. For how erratic it's TOC position it is, Kagami has not done poorly enough. It will be given an opportunity to develop, rather than a manga like Magico that has a long history of poor TOC performance and sales.

 

[Zeromcd]

Re: Weekly Shonen Jump [2011] - Discussion and TOC Talk - Part 2

Here is some further evidence as to why I believe that series begin ranking on chapter 8.

Jump 1983 Issue #48 TOC
Cats Eye (Lead CP)
Fist of the North Star (Chapter 8 Published)
Tenchi wo Kurau
Captain Tsubasa
Kochikame
Black Angels
Kinnikuman
Stop Hibari-kun
Highschool Kimengumi
Ashita Tenhei
Shape Up Ran
Yoroshiku Mech Dock
Dr. Slump
Kick Off
Fuma no Kojiro
Wingman
Magic Boy Biitii

Jump 1983 Issue #49 TOC
Highschool Kimengumi (Lead CP)
Kochikame
Tenchi wo Kurau
Cats Eye
Fist of the North Star (Chapter 9 Published)
Kinnikuman
Dr. Slump
Fuma no Kojiro (End)
Stop Hibari-kun
Cats Eye
Black Angels
Ashita Tenhei
Yoroshiku Mecha Dock
Wingman
Shape Up Ran
Magic Boy Biitii
Kick Off

It is stated in Bakuman that the most popular first chapter in the history of Shounen Jump is Fist of the North Star. When Chapter 8 was published it was ranked first whilst when Chapter 9 was published it only came in fourth. There have been a number of series that ranked first place when their ninth chapter was published so I would rule out the possibility that series begin to rank on chapter 9

 

[Krono]

Re: Weekly Shonen Jump [2011] - Discussion and TOC Talk - Part 2

Is it just me or do we go through this "Will Mago end" thing about every two months?

Probably. Either that, or comments about it being moved to Jump Square, despite neither option being particularly likely.

 

[Asarii]

Re: Weekly Shonen Jump [2011] - Discussion and TOC Talk - Part 2

The speculation surrounding Mago is probably because it's been at a low point for months, and WSJ shows no sign of ending it. The second season of the anime is providing some sort of a grace period. Fans just have to hope that it will fare better, but sadly it hasn't made a difference so far. It was also doing pretty well with all sorts of promotion around the first season so its popularity a while back might also be why we're constantly discussing its future. /two cents

---

Even though I've been content with a middle spot for Sket, it's even better that it's third this week.

 

[Kaiten]

Re: Weekly Shonen Jump [2011] - Discussion and TOC Talk - Part 2

Mago is a special case because of sales, higher than many of the series ahead of it in the charts. Kuroko, Sket, Beelze, Medaka all poll higher but sell less. Low rankings may prompt the editors at Jump to meet with their counterparts at SQ, but a series of consecutive bottom five rankings do not have very much meaning in the short term. For a new series like St&rs, or a series that doesn't sell 400,000 or more copies per volume, we can use low rankings to speculate on when a series will end. Not a best seller like Mago.

 

[Sayaendo]

Re: Weekly Shonen Jump [2011] - Discussion and TOC Talk - Part 2

Whenever new cancellations are coming, just like ToLoveRu. There is almost no way that Mago ends in WSJ this winter though. We already know it is not ending in issue 7, that news would be out already, we would know when the upcoming color pages were posted. It won't end in the double issue, there would be to many uncollected chapters for two volumes (volume 20 comes out the first week of February) but not enough for three. Mago needs at least eight more issues, beginning with issue 7, before it can make a clean move.

Longevity can only work against Magico, not in it's favor. The editors already know what they have: a low selling manga that polls poorly. Volume sales have been sluggish, showing no signs of rising, let alone having the potential to be a hit. Had there been a series like Sengoku or Ikkyuu that fell to the bottom five immediately and stayed there, Magico would be spared. For how erratic it's TOC position it is, Kagami has not done poorly enough. It will be given an opportunity to develop, rather than a manga like Magico that has a long history of poor TOC performance and sales.

Except that there is precedent for series in Magico's position to stay without being cancelled throughout Jump's history, and precedent is stronger than logic.

Though, if we're going to go by logic, it could be argued that series in Magico's position, despite being low-ranking and low-selling just enough not to be a bomb, are series whose part of their fanbase is not part of the normal Jump fanbase (i.e. they make the magazine more varied). Variety is very important.

 

[Drmke]

Re: Weekly Shonen Jump [2011] - Discussion and TOC Talk - Part 2

Except that there is precedent for series in Magico's position to stay without being cancelled throughout Jump's history, and precedent is stronger than logic.

Though, if we're going to go by logic, it could be argued that series in Magico's position, despite being low-ranking and low-selling just enough not to be a bomb, are series whose part of their fanbase is not part of the normal Jump fanbase (i.e. they make the magazine more varied). Variety is very important.

From what I can tell though, Magico has not expanded Jump's readership. Everyone I've seen on here that reads Magico tends to read several other Jump series. Magico's fanbase and rankings remind me of P2 or Samurai Usagi; both ranked usually low near the end of their run, didn't have good volume sales (that I remember anyway), and both had very supportive online fans BUT both got cancelled with no remorse from Jump. I just can't see Magico faring any better.

 

[Kaiten]

Re: Weekly Shonen Jump [2011] - Discussion and TOC Talk - Part 2

And Magico has been serialized for about as long as P2 and Usagi too, just about a year.

There is nothing about Magico that could expand Jump's audience. It is a supernatural action manga aimed at younger teen readers, Weekly Jumps stock in trade. Sket Dance, Medaka, and Kuroko are all good examples of titles that expand Jumps potential fanbase. Nisekoi, Kurogane, and Kagami too, should they survive long term. But it is hard to claim that another supernatural action manga could possibly expand the circulation of the magazine that gave the world Dragonball.

---------- Post added at 12:25 PM ---------- Previous post was at 03:11 AM ----------

Please Discuss Murata's one shot in the Weekly Young Jump thread.

 

[matto24]

Re: Weekly Shonen Jump [2011] - Discussion and TOC Talk - Part 2

for me the next series will be dropped:

ST&RS , Pakki, Kurogane.

does not understand how to be so high in TOC and have sold very little, considering that it is not even appeared in the TOP 50 ...

 

[hao-sama]

Re: Weekly Shonen Jump [2011] - Discussion and TOC Talk - Part 2

Kurogane's been very consistent in the TOCs. Considering the fact that it's a sports manga, it'd probably take a while for its popularity to build some steam. It's a shame that the manga hasn't sold well so far though. I do hope it sticks, since it's been nothing but awesome so far.

I think ST&RS is pretty much cancelled already, next ones to go would probably be Kagami or Magico. Throw Pakki in too for good measure.

IMO, there's no way they'd drop Mago. Its sales are higher than most manga (even Beelzebub and Medaka Box) even though its TOC rankings are usually low. Not to mention it's been running for several years already, so it's even less likely to get cancelled. I know it has precedents like Shaman King, Nube, and the likes, but that was back then, when Jump kept on pumping out interesting manga. Look at 2010 for example, none of their new series managed to stay serialized. I don't think they'd cancel a long-running series (that has high sales and an established fanbase) for a new one that they're not sure would be a hit or a miss.

... or it could be my optimism as a Mago fan showing? xD

 

[Negative Syndicate]

Re: Weekly Shonen Jump [2011] - Discussion and TOC Talk - Part 2

Throw Pakki in too for good measure.

Pakky will be stick in Shonen Jump for a while because it will be getting color on next issue and it will take more time than other series to have a volume since it is a short page gag series.

 

[Krono]

Re: Weekly Shonen Jump [2011] - Discussion and TOC Talk - Part 2

IMO, there's no way they'd drop Mago. Its sales are higher than most manga (even Beelzebub and Medaka Box) even though its TOC rankings are usually low. Not to mention it's been running for several years already, so it's even less likely to get cancelled. I know it has precedents like Shaman King, Nube, and the likes, but that was back then, when Jump kept on pumping out interesting manga. Look at 2010 for example, none of their new series managed to stay serialized. I don't think they'd cancel a long-running series (that has high sales and an established fanbase) for a new one that they're not sure would be a hit or a miss.

... or it could be my optimism as a Mago fan showing? xD

Nah, that's a pretty reasonable assessment. Really, Jump has no real reason to suddenly cancel it. They're unlikely to have the author, or let the author drag it out, but the best thing for them to do at this point is have it naturally end sometime in the 200s.

 

[Teeba]

Re: Weekly Shonen Jump [2011] - Discussion and TOC Talk - Part 2

Mago's popularity is like D.Gray-man's except without the whole author-constantly-gets-sick-and-goes-on-hiatus bit. In recent years before D.Gray-man moved to SQ, it was ALWAYS at the bottom, or at most at middle-tier. Maybe Mago has a large female fanbase - that would also explain why it sells better than its ToC position.

I think it would be interesting to see a poll or a survery regarding the gender ratio of the more popular Jump series. Bleach has a large female fanbase, that's for sure, but what about say, One Piece, Toriko, or even Gintama?

 

[k-dom]

Re: Weekly Shonen Jump [2011] - Discussion and TOC Talk - Part 2

IMO, there's no way they'd drop Mago. Its sales are higher than most manga (even Beelzebub and Medaka Box) even though its TOC rankings are usually low. Not to mention it's been running for several years already, so it's even less likely to get cancelled. I know it has precedents like Shaman King, Nube, and the likes, but that was back then, when Jump kept on pumping out interesting manga. Look at 2010 for example, none of their new series managed to stay serialized. I don't think they'd cancel a long-running series (that has high sales and an established fanbase) for a new one that they're not sure would be a hit or a miss.

... or it could be my optimism as a Mago fan showing? xD

Maybe the fact that no serie is successful at the moment is because of series such as mago which poll terribly and only stay because they are historical. It's very hard for a new serie to survive at the moment. I hope Mago can end naturally but honestly its case is a bit unfair. I hope 2012 will be the year of renewal for Jump with the end of several veteran series

 

[Zeromcd]

Re: Weekly Shonen Jump [2011] - Discussion and TOC Talk - Part 2

I've been curious about Toriko for awhile. Jump has been pushing it incredibly hard since it began like no other series has before, with all the early Lead CP's and it did rank well from the begining. It later got its anime that aired right before One Piece in probably one of the best time slots. And has recently pushed Bleach aside and taken the spot next to One Piece and Naruto in the Jump group covers. But yet, it still sells so much less than other famous serious did where Toriko is currently at, without nearly as much support from the Jump editorial staff.

Here are how other series did compared to Toriko at around the same volume release length:

One Piece - 1～17 - 41,800,000
Yu Yu Hakusho - 1～15 - 32,000,000
Slam Dunk - 1～15 - 32,000,000
Naruto - 1～18 - 28,000,000
Death Note - 1～12 - 26,500,000
Kimagure Orange Road - 1～18 - 20,000,000
Prince of Tennis -1～17 - 20,000,000
D.Gray-Man - 1～18 - 18,000,000
Bleach - 1～17 - 18,000,000
Gintama - 1～17 - 16,000,000
Hikaru no Go - 1～17 - 15,000,000
Houshin Engi - 1～15 - 13,300,000
Reborn! 1～17 - 12,000,000
Shaman King - 1～17 - 11,500,000
Bakuman - 1～14 - 10,000,000
Yu-Gi-Oh! - 1～14 - 10,000,000
I's - 1～15 - 10,000,000
Eyeshield 21 - 1～16 - 10,000,000
Toriko - 1～17 - 10,000,000

Toriko looks to be one of the lower selling, if not the lowest selling flagship title in Jump history.

Were the editorial staff's expectations of Toriko too high? Did Toriko not become the series they wanted it to be? Can a series become a permanent flagship on questionnaire rankings alone?

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Kagami no Kuni no Harisugawa #01 has entered the Amazon top 100. Harisugawa is the first new series since 2009 to do so, and even other new series like Magico, Enigma and every other 2010 and 2011 series have never made it into the top 200.

 

[matto24]

Re: Weekly Shonen Jump [2011] - Discussion and TOC Talk - Part 2

Magico seems to me strange that it droppin, because in my opinion the author is making the story as it appears to him, and now I close it in 4-5 chapters seem very strange, unless you kill everyone ...

Kagami I think will sell well, but both he and I do not think nisekoi go on for long, because the genre does not allow for plots that are too long, because in the end we lose a lot of it becomes very repetitive

(sorry for the English, but I'm using google, ahahahah)

As a potential for me it has much more Magico, being a fantasy, can do whatever he wants, while nisekoi and Kagami, unless you do as medaka (which totally changes usually at some point) romantic comedies are and will remain so.

 

[Negative Syndicate]

Re: Weekly Shonen Jump [2011] - Discussion and TOC Talk - Part 2

Kagami no Kuni no Harisugawa #01 has entered the Amazon top 100. Harisugawa is the first new series since 2009 to do so, and even other new series like Magico, Enigma and every other 2010 and 2011 series have never made it into the top 200.

I don't think amazon is a good source to predict a tank sales.