Mag Talk Weekly Shonen Jump [2020] - Discussion and ToC Talk

[Shinuki no Reborn]

MANGAHELPERS "TOC" POLL ISSUE #51 - VOTING!​

The poll for issue #51 is now open, vote for your favorite chapters of the week clicking HERE!

Alongside the release of Sakamoto Days, the extra series this week are:

-Dragon Ball Super 66
-Boruto: Naruto Next Generations 52
-Ghost Reaper Girl 10

Good Votes!

 

[Halloween]

Moderator Notice:
Henceforth, I will be deleting posts that complain about Weekly Shonen Jump having too many/not enough gag/battle/exorcism/sports/etc series.

These posts are not insightful, and do not meaningfully contribute to this thread. Also, this decision is not up for discussion, so posts discussing this decision will also be deleted.~ Halloween

 

[Ryuusei]

Spoiler: 52 TOC & 01 Preview

呪 僕 O マ ブ S C D 破 C B 夜 C 僕 あ 灼 ぼ チ 高 ア 森 A 仄 ぼ 次号カラー ヒロアカ アンデラ 夜桜 約ネバ 道産子 GIGA 岸本先生が描くコラボポスター 爆豪クリアファイル

Spoiler: Issue #52 ToC & Preview

Jujutsu Kaisen (Cover & LCP)
My Hero Academia
One Piece
Mashle
Black Clover
Sakamoto Days (CP)
Dr. Stone
Magu-chan: God of Destruction (CP)
Build King
Mission: Yozakura Family
Me & Roboco
Ayakashi Triangle (CP)
Shakunetsu no Niraikanai
We Never Learn
Chainsaw Man
Koukousei Kazoku
Undead Unluck
Moriking
Agravity Boys
Honomieru Shounen
Bokura no Ketsumei

Issue #1
Cover & LCP: My Hero Academia
CP: Undead Unluck, Mission: Yozakura Family, The Promised Neverland, Dosanko Gyaru wa Namaramenkoi

GIGA Preview
Collab poster by Kishimoto
Bakugou clear file

 

[Mankichi Togawa]

Imagine MHA sales getting a sudden rise because this. I mean, it has happened with Kimetsu.

 

[Stivie]

Mashle has a continuous history, unlike Mitama and David, which are episodes.

 

[Mankichi Togawa]

I've calculated the rate sales/volume number of the current Shonen Jump roster:

POSITIVE RATE
One Piece - 4.89
Kimetsu no Yaiba - 2.10

NEUTRAL RATE
The Promised Neverland - 1.05
My Hero Academia - 1
Haikyuu - 0.88

NEGATIVE RATE
Black Clover - 0.41
Jujutsu Kaisen - 0.40
Chainsawman - 0.26
Dr.Stone - 0.26
Act-age - 0.22
We Never Learn - 0.22
Yuuna-san - 0.18

The promising stuff here lies in Jujutsu Kaisen (it will surely beat Black Clover in next numbers update), and Chainsawman (already with the same rate as Dr.Stone)

My Hero Academia is having better numbers than Neverland in this 2020, so it can do a sorpasso to it in the rate values too

 

[yadayada]

I've calculated the rate sales/volume number of the current Shonen Jump roster:

POSITIVE RATE
One Piece - 4.89
Kimetsu no Yaiba - 2.10

NEUTRAL RATE
The Promised Neverland - 1.05
My Hero Academia - 1
Haikyuu - 0.88

NEGATIVE RATE
Black Clover - 0.41
Jujutsu Kaisen - 0.40
Chainsawman - 0.26
Dr.Stone - 0.26
Act-age - 0.22
We Never Learn - 0.22
Yuuna-san - 0.18

The promising stuff here lies in Jujutsu Kaisen (it will surely beat Black Clover in next numbers update), and Chainsawman (already with the same rate as Dr.Stone)

My Hero Academia is having better numbers than Neverland in this 2020, so it can do a sorpasso to it in the rate values too

It feels kind of weird to see "neutral rate" as 1mln/volume tbh lol.

I'm not really sure MHA is ahead of neverland in 2020, the volumes sold slightly better on release months but neverland somehow seems to have better backlog despite having no anime running.

 

[Mankichi Togawa]

I guess is only anglo-countries. The anime isn't available in Spain

 

[Rouk']

I've calculated the rate sales/volume number of the current Shonen Jump roster:

NEUTRAL RATE
Haikyuu - 0.88

Reminder that Haikyuu is most likely higher than this. To get 0.88, you used the 42 volumes and the 37m number we got recently. However Haikyuu has to be over 37m. If we trust Oricon:
It started in 2012, but did not reach the yearly top 30
2013: 2,056,211
2014: 8,283,709 (Total: >10,339,920)
2015: 6,531,508 (Total: >16,871,428)
2016: 5,474,394 (Total: >22,345,822)
2017: 5,067,939 (Total: >27,413,761)
2018: 5,030,624 (Total: >32,444,385)
2019: 4,514,838 (Total: >36,959,223)

That's 37m units sold (not shipped) as of mid-november 2019, without its 2012 sales (hard to say, over 500k maybe?) and its 2020 sales (around 1.8m as of this week). Considering shipments are always higher than sold-through data (and those numbers are supposed to include shipment, since they usually get updated when a new volume releases, with its first print included), it's safe to say that Haikyuu's rate is closer to 1 than this

 

[tirakai]

I'm surprised to see I'm From Japan ending now and not in the next issue, I had figured it was going to end on ch 47 so it had one chapter for each prefecture. Unless it suddenly did 4 chapters at once?

 

[Mankichi Togawa]

Reminder that Haikyuu is most likely higher than this. To get 0.88, you used the 42 volumes and the 37m number we got recently. However Haikyuu has to be over 37m. If we trust Oricon:
It started in 2012, but did not reach the yearly top 30
2013: 2,056,211
2014: 8,283,709 (Total: >10,339,920)
2015: 6,531,508 (Total: >16,871,428)
2016: 5,474,394 (Total: >22,345,822)
2017: 5,067,939 (Total: >27,413,761)
2018: 5,030,624 (Total: >32,444,385)
2019: 4,514,838 (Total: >36,959,223)

That's 37m units sold (not shipped) as of mid-november 2019, without its 2012 sales (hard to say, over 500k maybe?) and its 2020 sales (around 1.8m as of this week). Considering shipments are always higher than sold-through data (and those numbers are supposed to include shipment, since they usually get updated when a new volume releases, with its first print included), it's safe to say that Haikyuu's rate is closer to 1 than this

What would be the estimation for My Hero Academia and The Promised Neverland? Like Haikyuu we don't have the last numbers of these two.

I would be interested if a My Hero Academia version of what you've did for Haikyuu.

 

[Rouk']

What would be the estimation for My Hero Academia and The Promised Neverland? Like Haikyuu we don't have the last numbers of these two.

I would be interested if a My Hero Academia version of what you've did for Haikyuu.

2020 estimations as of this week

HeroAca:
Volume 1 had 2 weeks of sales in 2014, under 100k
2015: 2,190,845
2016: 5,114,916
2017: 5,852,310
2018: 6,718,185
2019: 5,047,574
2020: (estimation) 2,600,000
Total: 27,6m

HeroAca's 26m number is from December, when volume 25 released. So considering its sales at this point (First two weeks of Oricon 2020 (under 100k)+vol. 25's first print) it looks like that number is more accurate than Haikyuu's.

Neverland:
2017: 2,039,675
2018: 4,246,955
2019: 7,454,745
2020: (estimation) 2,500,000
Total: 16.2m

The 18m number includes volume 18's first print. So this is closer to what we should expect in terms of difference between shipment and sell-through data. But it may include stuff like the novels so I'm not sure.

 

[Mankichi Togawa]

2020 estimations as of this week

HeroAca:
Volume 1 had 2 weeks of sales in 2014, under 100k
2015: 2,190,845
2016: 5,114,916
2017: 5,852,310
2018: 6,718,185
2019: 5,047,574
2020: (estimation) 2,600,000
Total: 27,6m

HeroAca's 26m number is from December, when volume 25 released. So considering its sales at this point (First two weeks of Oricon 2020 (under 100k)+vol. 25's first print) it looks like that number is more accurate than Haikyuu's.

Neverland:
2017: 2,039,675
2018: 4,246,955
2019: 7,454,745
2020: (estimation) 2,500,000
Total: 16.2m

The 18m number includes volume 18's first print. So this is closer to what we should expect in terms of difference between shipment and sell-through data. But it may include stuff like the novels so I'm not sure.

So Hero Academia is more close to 28M numbers? I was estimating it to be 27M, seems Hero Academia is having a better year in 2020 than in 2019.

That would rise MHA to 1,07. Not bad.

I wonder if MHA is reaching the 30 million copies this year.

 

[Stivie]

--- Double Post Merged, Apr 1, 2020, Original Post Date: Apr 1, 2020 ---

 

[James Rye]

If this keeps for a couple months on SxF Vol.1 will have been in the Top100 for a whole year since release. Crazy~

 

[yadayada]

So Hero Academia is more close to 28M numbers? I was estimating it to be 27M, seems Hero Academia is having a better year in 2020 than in 2019.

That would rise MHA to 1,07. Not bad.

I wonder if MHA is reaching the 30 million copies this year.

I would expect it to barely reach 30mln since while so far it's holding up compared to 2019, it's had an anime running+a movie while 2019 didn't really have anything (the first movie came out in august and s3 ended in september). I would expect the numbers to drop a little bit compared to the first half of the year, would be a very good sign for the series if it managed to hold up even without the anime though!

Also to further clarify on the numbers, One Piece's index should be a bit lower considering that the number you're using is worldwide while everyone else's is japan only, OP's circulation in japan IIRC was 380mln at volume 92 which would put it at about 4.1

And since kimetsu is obviously the one that is furthest away from latest circulation numbers
2016: 133,978
2017: 1,193,204
2018: 1,354,053
2019: 12,057,628
2020: 34,128,478
Total: 48,867,341 (of which almost 900k is from the fanbook, so let's say about 48mln for the 19 volumes for an index of about 2.5)

Rest seems about right

 

[101nemesis]

I voted tennis because it baffles me that WSJ didn't capitalize on the Big 4's era in tennis which drove the sport's popularity worldwide and especially with Japanese players like Kei Nishikori and Naomi Osaka being big in the sports with Naomi even winning two slams.

 

[Rouk']

So Hero Academia is more close to 28M numbers? I was estimating it to be 27M, seems Hero Academia is having a better year in 2020 than in 2019.

That would rise MHA to 1,07. Not bad.

I wonder if MHA is reaching the 30 million copies this year.

We have to keep in mind that all these numbers are Japan only, except for One Piece. So if we want to do a proper comparison, we should exclude OP's worldwide sales. For most manga, this doesn't change much, as their sales in the rest of the world are negligible. But for HeroAca and Neverland to a lesser extent, sales in the rest of the world would significantly rise that ratio.
In France alone, HeroAca has sold around 2.5m since its release in 2016 (2016: 240k; 2017: 500k; 2018: 700k; 2019: 840k) and Neverland close to a million since 2018 (2018: 250k; 2019: 600k)
In the US, HeroAca has been the best selling manga for a while too iirc.

 

[yadayada]

We have to keep in mind that all these numbers are Japan only, except for One Piece. So if we want to do a proper comparison, we should exclude OP's worldwide sales. For most manga, this doesn't change much, as their sales in the rest of the world are negligible. But for HeroAca and Neverland to a lesser extent, sales in the rest of the world would significantly rise that ratio.
In France alone, HeroAca has sold around 2.5m since its release in 2016 (2016: 240k; 2017: 500k; 2018: 700k; 2019: 840k) and Neverland close to a million since 2018 (2018: 250k; 2019: 600k)
In the US, HeroAca has been the best selling manga for a while too iirc.

Out of curiosity, where did you get those french numbers? I was under the impression that we had no hard numbers for that

 

[wothab]

We have to keep in mind that all these numbers are Japan only, except for One Piece. So if we want to do a proper comparison, we should exclude OP's worldwide sales. For most manga, this doesn't change much, as their sales in the rest of the world are negligible. But for HeroAca and Neverland to a lesser extent, sales in the rest of the world would significantly rise that ratio.
In France alone, HeroAca has sold around 2.5m since its release in 2016 (2016: 240k; 2017: 500k; 2018: 700k; 2019: 840k) and Neverland close to a million since 2018 (2018: 250k; 2019: 600k)
In the US, HeroAca has been the best selling manga for a while too iirc.

I think its the best option to disregard worldwide sales for several reasons
-The overseas markets is, on a vast majority of cases, irrelevant to the point of view of editors if history is anything to go by.
-A large share of the money generated goes to the local publisher (so viz/kaze/panini/etc)
-The currency ,price and purchasing power difference
-It opens a can of worms regarding accounting for sales since you can always argue that it is popular in some other country that is not being accounted for and we dont have the numbers for (ie. DBZ or Saint Seiya in latin america)

 

[Mankichi Togawa]

I recall that in USA MHA is selling more than even One Piece, I can be wrong. Just remembering these comic charts where MHA was having better sales than even west comics.

In Spain if I recall One Piece is 1st, Shingeki is 2nd, and MHA is 3rd. Out of curiosity, Norma Editorial is promoting way more Neverland than Kimetsu.

I wish I got some "Oricon" stuff in Spain to check things.

 

[Rouk']

Out of curiosity, where did you get those french numbers? I was under the impression that we had no hard numbers for that

Sources:
2016
2017
2018
2019

First three are from a blog that has access to GfK data (you need to pay and be a company related to the market, such as a library, to have access to their data). Last one from Le figaro, a newspaper, also GfK data. The yearly numbers are usually revealed around the time of the Angoulème comic con

 

[yadayada]

Sources:
2016
2017
2018
2019

First three are from a blog that has access to GfK data (you need to pay and be a company related to the market, such as a library, to have access to their data). Last one from Le figaro, a newspaper, also GfK data. The yearly numbers are usually revealed around the time of the Angoulème comic con

Thanks. And wow, the most surprising thing was lowkey how much asterix still sells in france, holy moly.