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We have fallen into this trap countless times, and we continue to fall. I'll just be sure of the good reception of The Elusive samurai by looking at volume sales.If Elusive Samurai gets top three every week and then bombs at volume release, then yeah that would be something to raise an eyebrow at.
If Elusive Samurai drops down to the bottom five and then bombs at volume release, the TOC placements could be summed up as "great initial reception, but it couldn't carry that momentum". This is what happened with Moriking, which had four good weeks (3-6-4-4) before dropping down to the bottom five and never really recovering.
The TOC is reliable as a rough estimate of popularity within the magazine. That can help to predict sales, but it isn't a 1-to-1. As we all know.
You are throwing around a lot of "what ifs". Phantom Seer hasn't been canceled, and it doesn't show any signs of wrapping up by the next batch. If they did cancel it, yeah, that would be a bad move right now. But they haven't.
It would very definitely appear that The Elusive Samurai has great early reception. Of course, people could lose interest in it and the TOC placements could go down, but that hasn't happened yet. Let's just wait and see before we start throwing around any more "what ifs".
Even if people have cast their votes, there is no guarantee that this is the manga's real position in the toc.
Matsui is a veteran who has two successes in the jump, so it is natural that he starts with a good internal popularity.
And speaking of internal popularity, from what I researched this is something that only influences veteran authors who already have a solid fanbase, this is not something that can influence a novice. however, internal reception does not last forever because if you do not attract new readers or if your fanbase does not continue to follow your work, gradually your series will fall, and soon it will be canceled.