Discussion What country will be the next Superpower?

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What country is currently threatening USA's position as the world's superpower?

What country do you think will be the next superpower? Or do you think USA will secure her position?
 

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China or Japan
 

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India and China
 

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Unless some nations resort to military combat in the near future (which is too difficult to tell at this point), I think it ultimately comes down to economic power and technological advancement.

In my opinion, I think that the latter is probably the most significant factor in determining which nation is the strongest. In the modern era, it ultimately comes down to who has the best technological capability.

As of right now, I think the U.S. is in a solid position to stay as the world's superpower for quite some time.

If I had to guess the next superpower, I would say China because of their strong economy and sheer population. Since they have a far larger population, they have a higher chance at developing more advanced technology. You just need 1 mastermind to change the course of history.
 

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Personally I think that towards the future it will be alliances between countries that play a bigger role. As of now the countries with the largest populations are india and china and both economies are growing as far as I know. And with their populations them surpassing the US's gdp is mostly a matter of time. So what is the natural reaction other countries should follow? Collaboration with other countries with similar interests. It's just the simplest way to handle swinging power tides. China is growing and it is a reasonable bet that at some point in the future its gdp will surpass the US. India probably too but well after china does. As time goes on it is alliances and common interests that will become more important.
 

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I feel like as long as Trump is in power we won't remain the superpower country for long. I also think China's at a delicate/sensitive place where a mistake or two could prevent from becoming the next superpower.
 

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I feel like as long as Trump is in power we won't remain the superpower country for long. I also think China's at a delicate/sensitive place where a mistake or two could prevent from becoming the next superpower.

Well, Trump has a maximum of 6 more years in office (could be 2 if he is not re-elected in 2020), so I don't think much will change until then. It takes something drastic for another country to surpass another as the world's superpower.

In the long-term, I do think that China has the greatest chance for possessing the strongest economy, and possibly the best technological capability.

But for now, I think that the U.S. still has a solid lead in superiority (whether we like it or not).


Also, I'm more inclined to say that the citizens of a country have a greater impact on a nation's overall power than a single individual sitting in-office. While the leader does make the rules, the human capital of a nation ultimately depends on its people.

Which is why I believe that education and creativity is the most important factor for a superpower to emerge.

It will take something along the lines of a scientific breakthrough for another country to surpass the U.S. as the world's next superpower, if we're talking about any significant changes in the near future.
 

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China is indeed growing fast, but I think I agree with kkck.

Alliance plays a role. USA is a member of the biggest alliance in the world right now, while China is not. China wants to dominate South East Asia, but they cannot win SEA countries' heart. Look at South China sea dispute, none of SEA countries want China to take control. Also there are Japan and India that are rising. And Australia, that predicted Indonesia will come out as the new superpower in the future (not the mightiest of course, but one of them), will use Indonesia to balance out China's influence.

I was once told that military power & expansion also plays a role. USA has military headquarters like everywhere.
 
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China is indeed growing fast, but I think I agree with kkck.

Alliance plays a role. USA is a member of the biggest alliance in the world right now, while China is not. China wants to dominate South East Asia, but they cannot win SEA countries' heart. Look at South China sea dispute, none of SEA countries want China to take control. Also there are Japan and India that are rising. And Australia, that predicted Indonesia will come out as the new superpower in the future (not the mightiest of course, but one of them), will use Indonesia to balance out China's influence.

I was once told that military power & expansion also plays a role. USA has military headquarters like everywhere.
But Trump is also hurting our alliance with others and making us look ridiculous. He could do something drastic that finally fucks us over as a superpower.
 

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Russia

China
 

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Russia's economy is just a bit larger than mexico's. They manage to remain relevant on the world stage via propaganda campaigns and possessing nukes. None of those things are indicative of russia being on its way to being a superpower in the same was as the US or China...
 

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What country is currently threatening USA's position as the world's superpower?

What country do you think will be the next superpower? Or do you think USA will secure her position?
Currently, the USA's position is a little precarious because of president Trump, but if you can still somehow imagine a reality in which Obama was succeeded by an actual politician, their position on the world stage would still be the undisputed number one.

Throughout history, there have been trends of certain empires taking on the role of 'hegemon', an empire both willing and capable to take the world under its wing, through either coercive or cooperative means. A hegemony is a geopolitical state whereby one particular power sets the tone on the seas, possesses the greatest military might and runs the most efficient economy. Historic examples are the Portuguese empire, the Spanish empire, the Dutch empire, the British empire and then finally, the USA. While the hegemon daddy rules properly, other states won't go to war with each other but instead abide by the regime set by the hegemon. And this is an important thing: by some dynamic, the hegemon is capable of defining the playing field for everyone. The British did it coercingly by owning vast amounts of lands all over the world and the Americans did it cooperatively by being the architects of the post WWII order by setting up the UN (and security council), the World Bank and the IMF.

In short, the hegemon is so strong he can bully or charm other states into playing by their rules. Why do states obey? Because the primary interest of any state is to keep existing as a state. A state is essentially the strong legal entity that exists and it's tied to identities and peoples, so the primary interest of a state will always be to simply survive. To survive, a state needs resources to satisfy its needs. To obtain resources a state does not possess, they can do either one of two things; trade resources or claim resources. Now claiming resources implies conflict and conflict is all kinds of costly. So usually states will actually want to avoid the combat option while happily building up expensive wartime resources. With the hegemon around, the first option, trade, becomes more preferable. Trade is cheap because you don't have to keep a military standing. Instead, an economy is carried by people who will pay you taxes! So states, if they can, will avoid conflict. With the hegemon and ally states around, challenging and beating the hegemon is next to impossible, so states will stay on the downlow and will avoid any potential conflict with the hegemonic party.

And therein lies the crux of hegemony - while the hegemon really rules alone, they may choose to uphold the veil of cooperation, such as the USA and the UK/EU. But lately, the EU has been expressing doubt in the USA's leadership capacity, Russia has been defiant, China is has been building their massive infrastructure network that runs through Europe, Russia and the Middle East. India has a massive population and has actually a few strong advantages; they are politically actually quite neutral internationally and relatively stable internally, they have a massive population and a growing middle class. Not to mention massive amounts of fertile land and a huge coastline. Russia I think is quite weak; they are not irrelevant but the USA at least under Obama was waging a shadow war on Russia's economy. As a consequence to the Crimea invasion, American diplomats were required to persuade local business's abroad to cease their company activity in Russia. This worked pretty well, so Russia and it's oligarchy is a little shaky. Europe is crippled painfully by their inability to run a bureaucracy while they figure out their identity crisis. Brazil is politically not doing too swell and besides has a problematic geography to work with. Smaller countries with strong economies will probably not be able to challenge the USA soon.

TLDR Trump is a meme but USA is still the strongest economy backed by the strongest military on the block
 

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Clearly Canada is going to take over the world with its Tim Horton’s and maple syrup:D

On a serious note, I wouldn’t say the USA is the only super power in the world but one of the most economical and political influences. The UK is still a mighty force on the world stage with the Commonwealth even though it positioned itself away from the EU. Angela Merkel still is one of the worlds most powerful leader and was Times person of the year with Germany being a world leader. Japan has always been economically strong and a technical leader while South Korea has gained political and economic strength over the past 10 years. China and India are still growing markets while France has added new social laws that are revolutionary. Canada just made marijuana legal creating a new economic opportunity while Australia still holds strong economic and political ties to various countries. Russia is still a country no one wants to mess with.

To be honest, I think the US will decline because they allowed themselves to depreciate by cutting ties with other countries and eliminating new ideas. Maybe California and the Western states will become its own country due to being an economic hub with liberal ideas. One thing for certain is the extreme right-wing rhetoric in the US is hindering future economic growth due to closed mindedness with green technology and preventing trade with other countries.
 

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I feel like as long as Trump is in power we won't remain the superpower country for long. I also think China's at a delicate/sensitive place where a mistake or two could prevent from becoming the next superpower.
The problem with this assumption is that dictatorship gets shit done when the motivation is to regain global prestige- which is clearly a priority for China's leadership. It's the oldest of the Big 3, and clearly has the most patience when it comes to global politics. If all three are dogs, USA is a prize competition dog now owned by a senile narcissist that's left the poor thing to tear itself apart with fleas. Russia is a half-frozen lone wolf desperately trying to prove it still has fangs by picking fights with pups. And China is a dog on the street corner, opening its trenchcoat to reveal all its stolen wares at discount prices.

I'm not sure what country would be Seymour from Futurama in this analogy. Maybe Canada.

I think the entire concept of a 'superpower' is antiquated. If it keeps being used for much longer, its definition will be vastly different from its original version. Hell, it pretty much already is.
--- Double Post Merged, , Original Post Date: ---
Maybe California and the Western states will become its own country due to being an economic hub with liberal ideas. One thing for certain is the extreme right-wing rhetoric in the US is hindering future economic growth due to closed mindedness with green technology and preventing trade with other countries.
One thing most people (including US Americans) don't get about USA is that secession won't happen without civil war, and civil war won't happen without a secession. Trump's wacky base is far too small and unfocused to actually inspire a threat to the rest of the country. I've been looking at the Brexit debacle right now for a preview of anything similar that could happen in USA, and it's clearly an utter disaster. We had a capital letters Civil War over the concept of human beings owning other human beings. I don't see any single issue being close to that in divisiveness in modern times.

Death-from-a-thousand-cuts rarely results in a swift division of territory in a major power. Maybe in a century if trends from the last 50 years keep going and getting worse, compounded by the coming storm that is climate change fucking over all coastal communities.
--- Double Post Merged, ---
Currently, the USA's position is a little precarious because of president Trump, but if you can still somehow imagine a reality in which Obama was succeeded by an actual politician, their position on the world stage would still be the undisputed number one.

Throughout history, there have been trends of certain empires taking on the role of 'hegemon', an empire both willing and capable to take the world under its wing, through either coercive or cooperative means. A hegemony is a geopolitical state whereby one particular power sets the tone on the seas, possesses the greatest military might and runs the most efficient economy. Historic examples are the Portuguese empire, the Spanish empire, the Dutch empire, the British empire and then finally, the USA. While the hegemon daddy rules properly, other states won't go to war with each other but instead abide by the regime set by the hegemon. And this is an important thing: by some dynamic, the hegemon is capable of defining the playing field for everyone. The British did it coercingly by owning vast amounts of lands all over the world and the Americans did it cooperatively by being the architects of the post WWII order by setting up the UN (and security council), the World Bank and the IMF.

In short, the hegemon is so strong he can bully or charm other states into playing by their rules. Why do states obey? Because the primary interest of any state is to keep existing as a state. A state is essentially the strong legal entity that exists and it's tied to identities and peoples, so the primary interest of a state will always be to simply survive. To survive, a state needs resources to satisfy its needs. To obtain resources a state does not possess, they can do either one of two things; trade resources or claim resources. Now claiming resources implies conflict and conflict is all kinds of costly. So usually states will actually want to avoid the combat option while happily building up expensive wartime resources. With the hegemon around, the first option, trade, becomes more preferable. Trade is cheap because you don't have to keep a military standing. Instead, an economy is carried by people who will pay you taxes! So states, if they can, will avoid conflict. With the hegemon and ally states around, challenging and beating the hegemon is next to impossible, so states will stay on the downlow and will avoid any potential conflict with the hegemonic party.

And therein lies the crux of hegemony - while the hegemon really rules alone, they may choose to uphold the veil of cooperation, such as the USA and the UK/EU. But lately, the EU has been expressing doubt in the USA's leadership capacity, Russia has been defiant, China is has been building their massive infrastructure network that runs through Europe, Russia and the Middle East. India has a massive population and has actually a few strong advantages; they are politically actually quite neutral internationally and relatively stable internally, they have a massive population and a growing middle class. Not to mention massive amounts of fertile land and a huge coastline. Russia I think is quite weak; they are not irrelevant but the USA at least under Obama was waging a shadow war on Russia's economy. As a consequence to the Crimea invasion, American diplomats were required to persuade local business's abroad to cease their company activity in Russia. This worked pretty well, so Russia and it's oligarchy is a little shaky. Europe is crippled painfully by their inability to run a bureaucracy while they figure out their identity crisis. Brazil is politically not doing too swell and besides has a problematic geography to work with. Smaller countries with strong economies will probably not be able to challenge the USA soon.

TLDR Trump is a meme but USA is still the strongest economy backed by the strongest military on the block
The question, how stable is USA exactly? It's an incredibly young country, when it comes to global power. The electorate has gotten incredibly used to the cushy lifestyle of non-participation it's enjoyed for... I want to say half a century, but it's basically been this way in one form or another since the dust of the Revolution settled down. The only reason the Civil War went the way it did was apathy vs. activism switching places. I'm not sure if that can happen again in such a retroactively fortuitous way. The apathetic are staying apathetic, and the activists are seemingly equal parts progressive and regressive.
 

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I agree that it will be more about which countries are effectively able to work together as huge blocks than about single countries.

The EU+US can still the an effective superpower if they learn to really close the cracks in their alliance.
Similarly, if China is able to get good chunks of Asia and Africa on their side, they could be a superpower.

I do not really see any other probable power block. Russia is not able to mind countries on the long run, India is always just far behind China and there does not seem to be any other emerging power that would really be able to exert dominance over more than its neighbouring nations.
 

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This thread was a very odd read... A couple things:

The existence of one superpower doesn't prevent the existence of others. In fact, if the US really did existence as the lone superpower in the world, then I'm sure we would have already torn our country apart by now. If humans don't have someone powerful to oppose and hate, then they find someone. I'm sure that's part of the reason why so many things have become political now. For Americans, the USSR was a far greater threat than whatever US "facist" you can think of, but that doesn't stop people from trying to hold them in the same regard. Why? Because those "facists" are being put in the same role in each person's personal play that is their life. I realize that's an.. odd way to put it, but I think it's an apt analogy. I digress.

So, with all that being said, I don't think China and Russia are going to become superpowers: They already are. On one scale or another, those two are already competing with the US in every possible way a country could. In fact, they're the only two that have been able to for an extended period of time. It's not as overt as it was with the USSR, all the same elements are there.

These things are direly important to note. Why? Because the only other two superpowers that can compete with the US are preparing for war. China has already said as much a couple months ago. North Korea, their ally, is clearly still getting further and further with their nuclear capabilities. Lastly, Russian, contrary to all their denials, are developing and testing weapons (Ex: the intermediate range ballistic missles that were in blatant violation of the agree we had with them) for international warfare, most likely for our EU allies. Additionally, those 3 are not doing these things independently of one another. The relationship between North Korea and China is already clear, but the one between Russian and China isn't as talked about. However, it's certainly there:




So, I'm not as sure of the US' safety and security in the top spot. Actually, I'm not sure that's ever a very productive thing for anyone to think about themselves in the first place. That's how you get caught with your guard down and become yet another fallen great.
 
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