Discussion What country will be the next Superpower?

Discussion in 'General World Topics' started by Kiki, Sep 10, 2018.

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  1. Kiki

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    What country is currently threatening USA's position as the world's superpower?

    What country do you think will be the next superpower? Or do you think USA will secure her position?
     
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  2. M3J

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    China or Japan
     
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  3. Arjuna

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    India and China
     
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  4. Nemispelled

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    Unless some nations resort to military combat in the near future (which is too difficult to tell at this point), I think it ultimately comes down to economic power and technological advancement.

    In my opinion, I think that the latter is probably the most significant factor in determining which nation is the strongest. In the modern era, it ultimately comes down to who has the best technological capability.

    As of right now, I think the U.S. is in a solid position to stay as the world's superpower for quite some time.

    If I had to guess the next superpower, I would say China because of their strong economy and sheer population. Since they have a far larger population, they have a higher chance at developing more advanced technology. You just need 1 mastermind to change the course of history.
     
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  5. kkck

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    Personally I think that towards the future it will be alliances between countries that play a bigger role. As of now the countries with the largest populations are india and china and both economies are growing as far as I know. And with their populations them surpassing the US's gdp is mostly a matter of time. So what is the natural reaction other countries should follow? Collaboration with other countries with similar interests. It's just the simplest way to handle swinging power tides. China is growing and it is a reasonable bet that at some point in the future its gdp will surpass the US. India probably too but well after china does. As time goes on it is alliances and common interests that will become more important.
     
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  6. M3J

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    I feel like as long as Trump is in power we won't remain the superpower country for long. I also think China's at a delicate/sensitive place where a mistake or two could prevent from becoming the next superpower.
     
  7. Nemispelled

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    Well, Trump has a maximum of 6 more years in office (could be 2 if he is not re-elected in 2020), so I don't think much will change until then. It takes something drastic for another country to surpass another as the world's superpower.

    In the long-term, I do think that China has the greatest chance for possessing the strongest economy, and possibly the best technological capability.

    But for now, I think that the U.S. still has a solid lead in superiority (whether we like it or not).


    Also, I'm more inclined to say that the citizens of a country have a greater impact on a nation's overall power than a single individual sitting in-office. While the leader does make the rules, the human capital of a nation ultimately depends on its people.

    Which is why I believe that education and creativity is the most important factor for a superpower to emerge.

    It will take something along the lines of a scientific breakthrough for another country to surpass the U.S. as the world's next superpower, if we're talking about any significant changes in the near future.
     
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  8. Kiki

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    China is indeed growing fast, but I think I agree with kkck.

    Alliance plays a role. USA is a member of the biggest alliance in the world right now, while China is not. China wants to dominate South East Asia, but they cannot win SEA countries' heart. Look at South China sea dispute, none of SEA countries want China to take control. Also there are Japan and India that are rising. And Australia, that predicted Indonesia will come out as the new superpower in the future (not the mightiest of course, but one of them), will use Indonesia to balance out China's influence.

    I was once told that military power & expansion also plays a role. USA has military headquarters like everywhere.
     
    Last edited: Oct 10, 2018
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  9. M3J

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    But Trump is also hurting our alliance with others and making us look ridiculous. He could do something drastic that finally fucks us over as a superpower.
     
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  10. Raven

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    Russia

    China
     
  11. kkck

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    Russia's economy is just a bit larger than mexico's. They manage to remain relevant on the world stage via propaganda campaigns and possessing nukes. None of those things are indicative of russia being on its way to being a superpower in the same was as the US or China...
     
  12. Copy Panda

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    Currently, the USA's position is a little precarious because of president Trump, but if you can still somehow imagine a reality in which Obama was succeeded by an actual politician, their position on the world stage would still be the undisputed number one.

    Throughout history, there have been trends of certain empires taking on the role of 'hegemon', an empire both willing and capable to take the world under its wing, through either coercive or cooperative means. A hegemony is a geopolitical state whereby one particular power sets the tone on the seas, possesses the greatest military might and runs the most efficient economy. Historic examples are the Portuguese empire, the Spanish empire, the Dutch empire, the British empire and then finally, the USA. While the hegemon daddy rules properly, other states won't go to war with each other but instead abide by the regime set by the hegemon. And this is an important thing: by some dynamic, the hegemon is capable of defining the playing field for everyone. The British did it coercingly by owning vast amounts of lands all over the world and the Americans did it cooperatively by being the architects of the post WWII order by setting up the UN (and security council), the World Bank and the IMF.

    In short, the hegemon is so strong he can bully or charm other states into playing by their rules. Why do states obey? Because the primary interest of any state is to keep existing as a state. A state is essentially the strong legal entity that exists and it's tied to identities and peoples, so the primary interest of a state will always be to simply survive. To survive, a state needs resources to satisfy its needs. To obtain resources a state does not possess, they can do either one of two things; trade resources or claim resources. Now claiming resources implies conflict and conflict is all kinds of costly. So usually states will actually want to avoid the combat option while happily building up expensive wartime resources. With the hegemon around, the first option, trade, becomes more preferable. Trade is cheap because you don't have to keep a military standing. Instead, an economy is carried by people who will pay you taxes! So states, if they can, will avoid conflict. With the hegemon and ally states around, challenging and beating the hegemon is next to impossible, so states will stay on the downlow and will avoid any potential conflict with the hegemonic party.

    And therein lies the crux of hegemony - while the hegemon really rules alone, they may choose to uphold the veil of cooperation, such as the USA and the UK/EU. But lately, the EU has been expressing doubt in the USA's leadership capacity, Russia has been defiant, China is has been building their massive infrastructure network that runs through Europe, Russia and the Middle East. India has a massive population and has actually a few strong advantages; they are politically actually quite neutral internationally and relatively stable internally, they have a massive population and a growing middle class. Not to mention massive amounts of fertile land and a huge coastline. Russia I think is quite weak; they are not irrelevant but the USA at least under Obama was waging a shadow war on Russia's economy. As a consequence to the Crimea invasion, American diplomats were required to persuade local business's abroad to cease their company activity in Russia. This worked pretty well, so Russia and it's oligarchy is a little shaky. Europe is crippled painfully by their inability to run a bureaucracy while they figure out their identity crisis. Brazil is politically not doing too swell and besides has a problematic geography to work with. Smaller countries with strong economies will probably not be able to challenge the USA soon.

    TLDR Trump is a meme but USA is still the strongest economy backed by the strongest military on the block
     
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  13. Reebi

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    Clearly Canada is going to take over the world with its Tim Horton’s and maple syrup:D

    On a serious note, I wouldn’t say the USA is the only super power in the world but one of the most economical and political influences. The UK is still a mighty force on the world stage with the Commonwealth even though it positioned itself away from the EU. Angela Merkel still is one of the worlds most powerful leader and was Times person of the year with Germany being a world leader. Japan has always been economically strong and a technical leader while South Korea has gained political and economic strength over the past 10 years. China and India are still growing markets while France has added new social laws that are revolutionary. Canada just made marijuana legal creating a new economic opportunity while Australia still holds strong economic and political ties to various countries. Russia is still a country no one wants to mess with.

    To be honest, I think the US will decline because they allowed themselves to depreciate by cutting ties with other countries and eliminating new ideas. Maybe California and the Western states will become its own country due to being an economic hub with liberal ideas. One thing for certain is the extreme right-wing rhetoric in the US is hindering future economic growth due to closed mindedness with green technology and preventing trade with other countries.
     
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