Also, about the final scoreline: while Seigaku beat both Midoriyama and Rokkaku 3-0, I think the contexts are very different, so I want to offer some thoughts on how this round could've played out differently.
If you guys recall, after Seigaku beat Hyoutei, Rokkaku discussed who they wanted to face. At that time, Shudou said he would play Fuji and Aoi wanted to face Ryoma. Rokkaku put them in S1 and S3 in the semis, where neither got their preferred opponent. What's remarkable in this context though is that they would have played those two if Seigaku had used the same line-up as against Midoriyama in the previous round - Ryoma was S3 and Fuji S1. Furthermore, Saeki said that they didn't expect Fuji in doubles. So if we put those pieces together, I think it's fairly reasonable to think that Rokkaku was gunning for these match-ups:
D2 Amane/Kurobane vs Inui/Kaidou
D1 Saeki/Itsuki vs Kikumaru/Momoshiro
S3 Aoi vs Ryoma
S2 Ryou vs Kawamura
S1 Shudou vs Fuji
I don't want to get into the possible outcomes too much, but just some thoughts on how those match-ups could've played out:
- D2: Kurobane and Inui would've probably had a service battle, Inui with speed and Kurobane with power. I don't really know if either side would get a big advantage over the other out of that, but it feels like a very Prince of Tennis type confrontation. Then you have Amane, who I think actually matches up quite well against Kaidou since his long racket gives him extra reach to combat the Snake with. Maybe he could even volley the Boomerang Snake without venturing far into the doubles alley?
- D1: We already saw how Saeki shut down Kikumaru before the latter unveiled his new step, so nothing to add there. Even with the step, Rokkaku might be in a slightly better position than they were in reality though. With Momoshiro around instead of Fuji, lobbing is still no good, but they can smash without having to worry about Higuma Otoshi. Saeki's motion vision and Itsuki's control would probably also help against Australian Formation shenanigans. I think the key question would be if Itsuki could contain Momoshiro's power, which I don't know the answer to. But if he could, I don't think Momoshiro would be able to rally in just the doubles alley like Fuji did, making it easier for Saeki to poach and put the return away.
- S3: I think Aoi would have picked the wrong opponent in Ryoma. While Aoi showed excellent control in general, the cord ball seems to be his weapon of choice when he really wants to score a point, and Ryoma showed he can track down cord balls pretty well against Kiraku already (plus he plays the net far more than Kaidou in general). Then there's the one-footed split step as well. This isn't to say Aoi would be unable to do anything - I can imagine some nice combinations off of his serve for instance - but I'd still give Ryoma the advantage.
- S2: This is the match-up I have pretty much no idea for how it would play out. Both of them are looking to do very different things, with Kawamura being all about power and Ryou stronger on the technical side. It would depend on who could impose his own game on the other.
- S1: In a way this is the most interesting hypothetical to me. I think most people would give this to Fuji without much thought and while I do think Fuji would probably take it in the end, I also think he'd have to put in quite a bit of work. There are two reasons. First, when looking at the line-ups of the previous rounds, Shudou played S1 in the opening round, which puts him in the company of Tachibana, Kiraku, Atobe and Tezuka. I'm not saying Shudou is Rokkaku's no. 1 because of that (might offer a more detailed analysis on that question at a later point though), but it's enough of an indicator for me to grant him good basics. Second, Shudou's special move is the short cross.
Now, a regular short cross doesn't sound like much, but depending on the exact circumstances, it actually has the potential to shut down all of Fuji's triple counters in a single play. To be exact, those circumstances are a slice cross court to Fuji's forehand and I guess coming into the net afterwards to put away the return into the open court. If it's a slice, Tsubame Gaeshi is sealed. Furthermore, he isn't smashing, so no Higuma Otoshi. And finally, Hakugei is a backhand shot, so targeting Fuji's forehand prevents him from hitting it.
By contrast, Fuji would have to actively aim to create situations in which he could unleash his counters, kind of like he did against Itsuki's Sinker.
I don't know if Rokkaku would've won if Seigaku's line-up had been like this, but for once, it feels like Ryuuzaki's match order might've actually made it quite a bit easier for the team.
