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Hmmmm, I think I may have figured some things out in a brief episode of maniacal ramblings to friends. This episode's revelation is important. I'm sure there will be holes in this theory, so feel free to criticize to your heart's content. I will warn you that you may want to avoid confronting portions of it (like I said, the theory is result of maniacal ramblings and elements of my maniacal ramblings are occasionally correct).
1. The argument. Based on what we heard in "Ab Aeterno," we have a better idea of what the argument is. MiB believes that everything is corruptible, while Jacob believes in the eventual triumph of humanity. The real problem is that MiB chose a generalized thesis. Because of this, Jacob needs only one counterexample for MiB's argument to fall apart. Heaven knows exactly what losing the argument entails (well, it probably has something to do with the sideways), but I think it's fairly safe to say that MiB's head won't explode. Now, we've seen Jacob's side manifest a few times and how MiB has responded to his contrarians (hell, even anyone who isn't overtly aligned to his cause and he's allowed to kill). Eko ultimately challenged MiB's stance and was killed for this reason. The same thing happened with Jacob, except his death is ultimately a continuation of the argument. Prior to Richard's employment, anyone who came to the island was either killed or corrupted by MiB. From the latter's perspective, this would limit the possibility of certain individuals making the right choice and maximize his opportunities to corrupt people. This all changed when Richard became a representative and Jacob started "fighting back." Since then, more of the inhabitants are given the chance to choose their paths, with a few nudges from either party (well, MiB likes to do more than nudge).
2. MiB's apparitions. This is a relatively weak theory, but please give it a chance. In order for MiB to appropriate another's appearance, certain conditions must be met: a) individual must be dead, b) there must be an item that links the deceased to the living in a deeply symbolic way and the living must be aware of it, c) said item must be relatively concrete. The first one is obvious, but the other two require some explanation. For the four primary apparitions used by MiB, excluding his "original" form, a concrete item was involved. With Christian and Locke, the shoes were necessary. The same applies to the necklaces in regards to Yemi and Isabella (not sure how Alex fits, but I like to think Ben kept a memento). All of these items were significant to the living and the latter were aware of this significance. Let’s look at Charlie. Looking back on MiB’s attempts to manipulate Claire, we never saw an instance of him appropriating Charlie’s appearance. Here’s the deal, the item, DS ring, Charlie left was lost until Sun found it. Because the living were not aware of the ring’s existence, MiB could not use Charlie’s appearance, even if that appearance would have made his life slightly easier. In regards to the third, this is a relative weakness for MiB. Given the number of characters on the island with meaningful scraps of paper/books/photographs, if he were able to use less concrete items, the exploits would be limitless. Additionally, one has to wonder what would happen if the item serving as a link between the living and the dead were to be destroyed while MiB was using the respective apparition. This would be an easy thing to accomplish if the item was less concrete, especially in terms of paper. Destroying shoes or jewelry is a little more difficult. Someone needs to exhume Locke and destroy his shoes, darn it! Dummies should have cremated him.
This begins the part you may want to avoid thinking about:
p.s. Does anyone know the details for "ask Lost?" I tried submitting three questions earlier today, but I'm not sure it worked as I was repeatedly directed to an error page. As I'm excessively paranoid about Lost misdirection, part of me thinks the website could just be designed to frak with people. Even so, there may be a character limit or something similar (the questions amounted to a little over a page single spaced), so any assistance with the issue would be appreciated.
p.p.s. It would be rather interesting if Sayid still carries his wedding ring. Flocke could partially fulfill his promise.
p.p.p.s. Claire will flee the island. She will take squirrel baby with her. Squirrel baby is the Aaron proxy, and this accounts for what Desmond saw in his vision.
1. The argument. Based on what we heard in "Ab Aeterno," we have a better idea of what the argument is. MiB believes that everything is corruptible, while Jacob believes in the eventual triumph of humanity. The real problem is that MiB chose a generalized thesis. Because of this, Jacob needs only one counterexample for MiB's argument to fall apart. Heaven knows exactly what losing the argument entails (well, it probably has something to do with the sideways), but I think it's fairly safe to say that MiB's head won't explode. Now, we've seen Jacob's side manifest a few times and how MiB has responded to his contrarians (hell, even anyone who isn't overtly aligned to his cause and he's allowed to kill). Eko ultimately challenged MiB's stance and was killed for this reason. The same thing happened with Jacob, except his death is ultimately a continuation of the argument. Prior to Richard's employment, anyone who came to the island was either killed or corrupted by MiB. From the latter's perspective, this would limit the possibility of certain individuals making the right choice and maximize his opportunities to corrupt people. This all changed when Richard became a representative and Jacob started "fighting back." Since then, more of the inhabitants are given the chance to choose their paths, with a few nudges from either party (well, MiB likes to do more than nudge).
2. MiB's apparitions. This is a relatively weak theory, but please give it a chance. In order for MiB to appropriate another's appearance, certain conditions must be met: a) individual must be dead, b) there must be an item that links the deceased to the living in a deeply symbolic way and the living must be aware of it, c) said item must be relatively concrete. The first one is obvious, but the other two require some explanation. For the four primary apparitions used by MiB, excluding his "original" form, a concrete item was involved. With Christian and Locke, the shoes were necessary. The same applies to the necklaces in regards to Yemi and Isabella (not sure how Alex fits, but I like to think Ben kept a memento). All of these items were significant to the living and the latter were aware of this significance. Let’s look at Charlie. Looking back on MiB’s attempts to manipulate Claire, we never saw an instance of him appropriating Charlie’s appearance. Here’s the deal, the item, DS ring, Charlie left was lost until Sun found it. Because the living were not aware of the ring’s existence, MiB could not use Charlie’s appearance, even if that appearance would have made his life slightly easier. In regards to the third, this is a relative weakness for MiB. Given the number of characters on the island with meaningful scraps of paper/books/photographs, if he were able to use less concrete items, the exploits would be limitless. Additionally, one has to wonder what would happen if the item serving as a link between the living and the dead were to be destroyed while MiB was using the respective apparition. This would be an easy thing to accomplish if the item was less concrete, especially in terms of paper. Destroying shoes or jewelry is a little more difficult. Someone needs to exhume Locke and destroy his shoes, darn it! Dummies should have cremated him.
This begins the part you may want to avoid thinking about:
3. Replaceable parts. It has been indicated that one of the primary goals for the characters this season will be determining who will replace Jacob. Jacob made a list of candidates and MiB isn’t allowed to kill them. In one of the audio podcasts, Lindelof, after being prompted by a fan’s question, hinted that the list in the cave may be there to confuse MiB (Jacob, and the writers, like to do that). That is, there are differences between the Lighthouse’s list and the cave’s list, especially when it comes to Kate. To me, the simple admission that one could be false implies the same for the other, but I won’t get into that here. MiB has a list of candidates and omissions that may play into Jacob’s plans. On the surface, instead of killing these people, he is trying to convert them to his cause so that they will not replace Jacob. However, in the Ben-centric episode, Locke mentioned wanting to have Ben manage things after he left. I took this as an implication that he also needs a replacement. That is, in order to escape, he needs to abandon the majority of his powers. "But wait, wouldn't that render him obsolete in the outside world?" That depends on how you look at it. Despite not having divine powers in the outside world, certain members within the parent corporation (Global Welfare Consortium?), which appears to be behind everything since major companies involved in the events are its subsidiaries (they dropped the food!), are capable of having a negative influence on the outside world (yes, this probably all comes down to Jacob, but that’s more reason to still fear a powerless MiB. Jacob actually “minimized” his involvement despite his nudging other characters. MiB doesn’t). Given MiB’s argument and his propensity for manipulating/killing people, he could still rise to a dangerous position without his powers. Because of this, if he continues holding that his argument is true, he’s a threat, regardless of his form.
4. MiB's plan. Now, let's take a look at MiB's camp. He recruited Sawyer because he's a conman, Sayid because he murders a lot of people, Claire cause she's a little nuts, and Ben because he's a synthesis of Sawyer and Sayid (yes, these are oversimplifications, but we won't deal with that right now). Kate and Jin are also in his camp, albeit reluctantly, so he probably views their paths in a similar light. All the former others who are in his camp feared death more than they cared about Jacob's vision, making them fairly easy to manipulate. The way I see it, he's surrounding himself with such people for two reasons. First, and the most obvious, he needs to have an army for those pesky situations when can't interfere with events (i.e. he needs help getting past the pylons). Second, he's looking for his replacement. Obviously, this would involve conning everyone in his camp, but he's MiB so what does he care? However, there's another side to the replacement issue: he wants someone who will internalize his argument. This helps explain why he is trying to corrupt the candidates. If the candidates despair and begin to hate everyone around them, whoever replaces MiB would presumably pursue an argument similar/identical to MiB's when taking his position.
5. Jacob gets to win the argument. Now, the problem with MiB's plan is that Jacob will be proven right. Unfortunately for MiB, the strings being pulled in his camp aren't necessarily going to work out in his favor. For example, while he may be aware of the fact that Sawyer is trying to play both sides, Sawyer, and Jacob, like to throw curveballs. The former jumped out of the helicopter after all. Now, the counterexample that Jacob needs would have to relate to an individual(s) committing a selfless act by abandoning his/her outside life for the sake of becoming the replacement(s). Because of the nature of rules, MiB can't kill the replacements/candidates, as he would most people who challenge his position. Since I can’t imagine Ben repeating his mistake, MiB will be forced to confront the counterexample by the replacements/candidates after/during the inheritance of the mantle(s).
6. Desmond/likely endgames. I'm not sure my previous prediction about Desmond can be easily reconciled with the above, but I see three possibilities for how this will all go down, provided the above theory is correct (I acknowledge the resultant variations on them if MiB doesn’t need a replacement and a possible mixture of the scenarios. That is I replace Jacob, and then you replace me. Huzzah for us): a) Desmond becomes the new Jacob or synthesis of the two forces (in his case, I really don’t care whether his name is on the list. The list could just be designed to throw everyone off XD). His life has been marked with a fair level of selfish cowardice (he has had his moments, and they were some of the best, but he is one of the more egoistic characters). Whatever vision he may have had, he joined the monastery to escape his engagement, he broke up with Penny because he couldn’t support her, despite her relaying her feelings about the issue through “Our Mutual Friend, etc. Because of his past selfishness and the life waiting for him off the island, his becoming the new Jacob/synthesis proves Jacob’s argument. Metaphorically, he begins pushing the button again (“You may not like your path, Desmond, but pushing that button is the only truly great thing that you will ever do” XD). If the flash sideways end up being the result of the endgame, this will help explain his bizarre appearance on the plane, unless the writers end up explaining that by giving him a relatively clear-cut flash sideways narrative in the Desmond-centric episode. The other two are fairly similar to one another. Kate’s name wasn’t crossed off in the lighthouse, and Jacob’s list is the “correct” one. MiB was given a false list so that he wouldn’t try to manipulate Kate. Kate becomes one of the replacements and Jack becomes the other (I suppose Sawyer could also work instead of Jack but I don’t see the writers going in that direction). Given the fact that we’re promised a showdown between Flocke and Jack, Jack replaces Jacob, dukes it out with Flocke, and Kate ends up replacing MiB, proving Jacob’s argument. The two concoct the scenario by which the flash sideways reality comes to be, allowing the others to end up in a relatively better world, where the evil is contained underwater, and does not have an avatar. This also means that they’ll allow themselves to end up in the other timeline. Jack essentially repeats the Jughead decision and Kate consents. Somehow, their bodies become Adam and Eve. Kate isn’t a candidate, making the cave list “correct.” This would mean that both Kwons are candidates. The scenario plays out much like the Kate/Jack one, but harkens back to the line Jacob delivered at the Kwon wedding. As the new figureheads, they seek to prove Jacob’s prophecy about their love. Over time, whatever relationship MiB and Jacob had with one another deteriorated to the point that the former wanted to kill the latter. The Kwon relationship may not deteriorate at all (well, we’ll see what happens with the flash sideways marriage). They resolve to engender the flash sideways timeline…etc. Given my own disposition, the scenarios are in the order I favor them/probability in my own head. “See you in another life, brother.”
7. The escape. Despite all this, MiB will somehow escape the island. The way I see it, the majority of the deceased oceanics/minor flash sideways characters left behind meaningful, concrete items (hell, even with Arzt, there’s a boatload of dynamite, Dogen left behind the baseball, etc). The replacement for Jacob will be determined before the replacement for MiB, provided he has one. In the time between the new Jacob having taken the mandate and MiB being replaced, MiB will choose a new form. As I said, he has a lot of appearances he can choose from. Using whatever means he plans to escape, he will end up in the flash sideways timeline. However, here’s the problem, for him at least, with his escape: he will be proven wrong before he leaves. Because of this, despite everything he did to escape and prove his argument, each unethical action he took will lose its respective rationalization/meaning. He will be an empty shell of what he was, doomed to be haunted by his past. As such, and you’re going to want to believe this portion since the writers love having characters deal with redemption and it’s incredibly frakking ironic, he won’t know how to approach his life. His first inclination will be to kill himself/despair. Eventually, he will come to the conclusion that Jacob was right in more ways than one. In order to come to terms for his meaningless crimes, he will seek to live his life as best he can. This will make him Jacob’s final student, and I’ll still hate MiB’s guts. Now, you’re probably going to dislike where I take this (even I’m reluctant to imagine it). The final form MiB will take is Charlie. The writers made a point of having Sun discover the ring (the one ring to rule them all). Because of this, Charlie will be fair game if MiB can take a new form. This may seem odd at first, but I’ll try to explain the rationale (yes, I recognize it’s somewhat flimsy but it’s all I have for now). Creative mediums, including music, have been a means to inspire people to do great things or truly horrific things. The right phrase, sound, or picture can trigger within an individual the worst nightmare or the greatest dream. With music as his tool, MiB could originally plan for the former. If he hopes to seek redemption after escaping, he could try to accomplish the latter. As such, I feel that, if he escapes and seeks redemption, Charlie would be the best option for the writers to choose. While I won’t forgive MiB, it would be a decent tribute if the writers extended the legacy established for Charlie on the island. That or MiB will choose a different form, he won’t care that he was proven wrong, and we’ll have a repeat of the Twin Peaks’ finale (oh yeah, I reallllly want that).
4. MiB's plan. Now, let's take a look at MiB's camp. He recruited Sawyer because he's a conman, Sayid because he murders a lot of people, Claire cause she's a little nuts, and Ben because he's a synthesis of Sawyer and Sayid (yes, these are oversimplifications, but we won't deal with that right now). Kate and Jin are also in his camp, albeit reluctantly, so he probably views their paths in a similar light. All the former others who are in his camp feared death more than they cared about Jacob's vision, making them fairly easy to manipulate. The way I see it, he's surrounding himself with such people for two reasons. First, and the most obvious, he needs to have an army for those pesky situations when can't interfere with events (i.e. he needs help getting past the pylons). Second, he's looking for his replacement. Obviously, this would involve conning everyone in his camp, but he's MiB so what does he care? However, there's another side to the replacement issue: he wants someone who will internalize his argument. This helps explain why he is trying to corrupt the candidates. If the candidates despair and begin to hate everyone around them, whoever replaces MiB would presumably pursue an argument similar/identical to MiB's when taking his position.
5. Jacob gets to win the argument. Now, the problem with MiB's plan is that Jacob will be proven right. Unfortunately for MiB, the strings being pulled in his camp aren't necessarily going to work out in his favor. For example, while he may be aware of the fact that Sawyer is trying to play both sides, Sawyer, and Jacob, like to throw curveballs. The former jumped out of the helicopter after all. Now, the counterexample that Jacob needs would have to relate to an individual(s) committing a selfless act by abandoning his/her outside life for the sake of becoming the replacement(s). Because of the nature of rules, MiB can't kill the replacements/candidates, as he would most people who challenge his position. Since I can’t imagine Ben repeating his mistake, MiB will be forced to confront the counterexample by the replacements/candidates after/during the inheritance of the mantle(s).
6. Desmond/likely endgames. I'm not sure my previous prediction about Desmond can be easily reconciled with the above, but I see three possibilities for how this will all go down, provided the above theory is correct (I acknowledge the resultant variations on them if MiB doesn’t need a replacement and a possible mixture of the scenarios. That is I replace Jacob, and then you replace me. Huzzah for us): a) Desmond becomes the new Jacob or synthesis of the two forces (in his case, I really don’t care whether his name is on the list. The list could just be designed to throw everyone off XD). His life has been marked with a fair level of selfish cowardice (he has had his moments, and they were some of the best, but he is one of the more egoistic characters). Whatever vision he may have had, he joined the monastery to escape his engagement, he broke up with Penny because he couldn’t support her, despite her relaying her feelings about the issue through “Our Mutual Friend, etc. Because of his past selfishness and the life waiting for him off the island, his becoming the new Jacob/synthesis proves Jacob’s argument. Metaphorically, he begins pushing the button again (“You may not like your path, Desmond, but pushing that button is the only truly great thing that you will ever do” XD). If the flash sideways end up being the result of the endgame, this will help explain his bizarre appearance on the plane, unless the writers end up explaining that by giving him a relatively clear-cut flash sideways narrative in the Desmond-centric episode. The other two are fairly similar to one another. Kate’s name wasn’t crossed off in the lighthouse, and Jacob’s list is the “correct” one. MiB was given a false list so that he wouldn’t try to manipulate Kate. Kate becomes one of the replacements and Jack becomes the other (I suppose Sawyer could also work instead of Jack but I don’t see the writers going in that direction). Given the fact that we’re promised a showdown between Flocke and Jack, Jack replaces Jacob, dukes it out with Flocke, and Kate ends up replacing MiB, proving Jacob’s argument. The two concoct the scenario by which the flash sideways reality comes to be, allowing the others to end up in a relatively better world, where the evil is contained underwater, and does not have an avatar. This also means that they’ll allow themselves to end up in the other timeline. Jack essentially repeats the Jughead decision and Kate consents. Somehow, their bodies become Adam and Eve. Kate isn’t a candidate, making the cave list “correct.” This would mean that both Kwons are candidates. The scenario plays out much like the Kate/Jack one, but harkens back to the line Jacob delivered at the Kwon wedding. As the new figureheads, they seek to prove Jacob’s prophecy about their love. Over time, whatever relationship MiB and Jacob had with one another deteriorated to the point that the former wanted to kill the latter. The Kwon relationship may not deteriorate at all (well, we’ll see what happens with the flash sideways marriage). They resolve to engender the flash sideways timeline…etc. Given my own disposition, the scenarios are in the order I favor them/probability in my own head. “See you in another life, brother.”
7. The escape. Despite all this, MiB will somehow escape the island. The way I see it, the majority of the deceased oceanics/minor flash sideways characters left behind meaningful, concrete items (hell, even with Arzt, there’s a boatload of dynamite, Dogen left behind the baseball, etc). The replacement for Jacob will be determined before the replacement for MiB, provided he has one. In the time between the new Jacob having taken the mandate and MiB being replaced, MiB will choose a new form. As I said, he has a lot of appearances he can choose from. Using whatever means he plans to escape, he will end up in the flash sideways timeline. However, here’s the problem, for him at least, with his escape: he will be proven wrong before he leaves. Because of this, despite everything he did to escape and prove his argument, each unethical action he took will lose its respective rationalization/meaning. He will be an empty shell of what he was, doomed to be haunted by his past. As such, and you’re going to want to believe this portion since the writers love having characters deal with redemption and it’s incredibly frakking ironic, he won’t know how to approach his life. His first inclination will be to kill himself/despair. Eventually, he will come to the conclusion that Jacob was right in more ways than one. In order to come to terms for his meaningless crimes, he will seek to live his life as best he can. This will make him Jacob’s final student, and I’ll still hate MiB’s guts. Now, you’re probably going to dislike where I take this (even I’m reluctant to imagine it). The final form MiB will take is Charlie. The writers made a point of having Sun discover the ring (the one ring to rule them all). Because of this, Charlie will be fair game if MiB can take a new form. This may seem odd at first, but I’ll try to explain the rationale (yes, I recognize it’s somewhat flimsy but it’s all I have for now). Creative mediums, including music, have been a means to inspire people to do great things or truly horrific things. The right phrase, sound, or picture can trigger within an individual the worst nightmare or the greatest dream. With music as his tool, MiB could originally plan for the former. If he hopes to seek redemption after escaping, he could try to accomplish the latter. As such, I feel that, if he escapes and seeks redemption, Charlie would be the best option for the writers to choose. While I won’t forgive MiB, it would be a decent tribute if the writers extended the legacy established for Charlie on the island. That or MiB will choose a different form, he won’t care that he was proven wrong, and we’ll have a repeat of the Twin Peaks’ finale (oh yeah, I reallllly want that).
p.s. Does anyone know the details for "ask Lost?" I tried submitting three questions earlier today, but I'm not sure it worked as I was repeatedly directed to an error page. As I'm excessively paranoid about Lost misdirection, part of me thinks the website could just be designed to frak with people. Even so, there may be a character limit or something similar (the questions amounted to a little over a page single spaced), so any assistance with the issue would be appreciated.
p.p.s. It would be rather interesting if Sayid still carries his wedding ring. Flocke could partially fulfill his promise.
p.p.p.s. Claire will flee the island. She will take squirrel baby with her. Squirrel baby is the Aaron proxy, and this accounts for what Desmond saw in his vision.
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I liked Sawyer when he said to MiB, "can't you just fly in there"? lol I was expecting MIB to fodder that Island 
> came to Desmond from alternative reality, and that's why Desmond on the island was "fearless", he was like he was empty after that mindfucking of Widmore's machine xd
>
