Fall NFL Thread

[xi0]

Re: The NFL Thread

Playoffs are set people

http://www.nfl.com/schedules?seasonType=POST

...anyone have any thoughts?

 

[Kaiten]

Re: The NFL Thread

Baltimore wins the AFC: Pittsburgh is to banged up, New England's defense is horrific. Baltimore has a good enough offense to put up points against New England and a good enough defense to slow down Brady. Baltimore was tied for third in sacks, they should be able to bring enough pressure to rattle Brady.

New Orleans wins the NFC: I don't feel entirely comfortable picking against Green Bay but New Orleans have slaughtered every team they've played since the bye. I would not want to bet against Drew Brees at the moment. If Green Bay and New Orleans do meet in the NFC championship game it could be one of the all time great offensive games.

I think New Orleans wins another Super Bowl. Drew Brees is playing to well and Sean Payton is the best coach in the play offs.

 

[xi0]

Re: The NFL Thread

Baltimore wins the AFC: Pittsburgh is to banged up, New England's defense is horrific. Baltimore has a good enough offense to put up points against New England and a good enough defense to slow down Brady. Baltimore was tied for third in sacks, they should be able to bring enough pressure to rattle Brady.

New Orleans wins the NFC: I don't feel entirely comfortable picking against Green Bay but New Orleans have slaughtered every team they've played since the bye. I would not want to bet against Drew Brees at the moment. If Green Bay and New Orleans do meet in the NFC championship game it could be one of the all time great offensive games.

I think New Orleans wins another Super Bowl. Drew Brees is playing to well and Sean Payton is the best coach in the play offs.

I'm tempering my enthusiasm since we won the division and got a bye *looks at sig* ...okay, intellectually I know I should be tempering my enthusiasm

I just have nightmares of the last time we had a bye and hosted a playoff game against the Colts in 2006. If I had the script and told you that Indy wouldn't score a touchdown against us on the road, who do you think would have won?...yeah

Our offense is much more capable than that one, but still. I'm just trying to live in the moment, we needed that bye to heal up. This is one of those things where you look at which team you're going to root for in the Wild Card rounds. If Houston beats Cincinnati, we host Houston next week, regardless of who wins between Pittsburgh and Denver. I do think that Cincinnati has a legit chance to beat Houston though. My inner fan tells me that I want Pittsburgh in two weeks at home so we can stomp on their grave for third time, like they did to us in 2008...but it's still the Steelers. Is a perfect storm brewing for Denver to maybe upset Pittsburgh? Maybe...but that dude who plays QB for the Steelers, he's just a winner. I hate him, but all the guy does is win. So I haven't really made up my mind as far as which scenario I would prefer.

We slapped the Patriots around in 2009, but that New England offense wasn't anything compared to what it is now.


The NFC really comes down to Green Bay, New Orleans and San Francisco. I wouldn't sleep on San Francisco. The other two teams have played otherworldly on offense though.

 

[Kaiten]

Re: The NFL Thread

Well if you guys don't go after Edwards, at least you have Jabar Gaffney...Amirite?

---------- Post added at 10:40 PM ---------- Previous post was at 10:27 PM ----------

The Steelers are to banged up to be much of a threat in the play offs, especially now that Pouncy is out. But they do have the one thing that is needed to beat Tebow time: a coach smart enough not to play prevent in the fourth quarter

Then again I read Bill Simmons mail bag today and saw this. There is a grain of truth, in a very weird way:

Spoiler

Q: I just had an epiphany while watching the clock tick closer to quitting time today at work. The easiest pick of the Round One weekend is the Denver Broncos. This whole thing is playing out just like any sports movie ever made. You've got a QB in Tim Tebow that overcame all kinds of obstacles to get the starting job on a crappy team. Then he leads them to unbelievable win after win. He has the team playing hard for him and everyone is starting to love him, even those in the media who were so against him. Then just when everything is going great things start to fall apart. Key players get injured, none of his tricks work anymore, and they go on a horrible losing streak. Now, just when there is no hope and everyone has counted them out the "Nobody Believes in Us" speech is delivered by Timmy Tebow. The team rallies behind him and they pull off a miracle comeback to beat the Steelers. I'm telling you … it's the easiest pick of the weekend. If Disney's already making the Tim Tebow movie there is no way the Broncos lose.
— Jason H, Dayton, OH

SG: Remember the 2008 playoffs, after Kurt Warner had told his kids he'd buy them a puppy if the Cardinals won the Super Bowl, then I had a Pakistani reader send me an e-mail urging me to bet on Warner's team because "you never bet against God and puppies"? I kind of feel the same way about Jason's Tebow/Disney e-mail. He's right … this is a sports-movie script. And we all know how sports movies play out.

The best point of Jason's e-mail: "Then just when everything is going great things start to fall apart. Key players get injured, none of his tricks work anymore, and they go on a horrible losing streak. Now, just when there is no hope and everyone has counted them out the 'Nobody Believes in Us' speech is delivered by Timmy Tebow."

Seriously, how many times have we seen that sequence in a sports movie? Fifty? Seventy-five? One hundred? It always happens around the 1:15 mark of the movie; even better, you KNOW it's coming and somehow still enjoy it. I don't know whether the inevitable Tebow/Broncos sports movie would be called God's Will, Faith Healer, Divine Intervention, And A Tebow Shall Lead Them, White Bronco, or my personal favorite, Fourth-and-God, but it's definitely been a sports movie — you have a polarizing/mesmerizing lead character, the mandatory "this team's coming together!" and "this team's falling apart!" sequences, crazy amounts of media scrutiny, and the whole damned thing is just implausible enough that you find yourself saying, "I wish this movie was about 18 percent more realistic." If you pick against Denver this weekend, you're picking against every sports movie ever made, as well as the $86 million opening weekend Disney is about to have for Fourth-and-God in 15 months. As always, tread carefully.

The reality is that Tebow went on a run against some very bad defenses who, for god knows what reason, conceded the middle of the field to a quarterback who can not beat anyone deep. Teams were essentially playing to his strengths. Thankfully Belichick put an end to his nonsense. And now the world is safe for those of us who believe being able to convert 3rd and long is an important part of the game

Baltimore is by no means a great team or a great bet but they do have the right ingredients to get passed the Patriots. They have a good enough passing game to put up points, a good enough running game to slow the clock and reduce the number of possessions, and most importantly they have a great pass rush. Hit Brady a few times and he is not the same quarterback. The Ravens are basically the 2007 Giants. They have the same strengths and the same weaknesses. But what they do well happens to be the keys to defeating the Patriots.

 

[xi0]

Re: The NFL Thread

I don't want to crap on Simmons...well maybe I do...but that whole notion is too Mickey-mouse to me (literally and figuratively). It's saccharine and everything...I understand that he's a writer...never mind, I'm not sure what my point is.

The truth is that Denver has the best chance they're ever going to have to beat Pittsburgh. I was listening to national radio and Boomer Esiason (who I don't really like) remarked about how James Harrison and Troy Polamalu have to be licking their chops like a tiger looks at steak. I guess no one has seen what happens when you hit Tebow...he isn't Tom Brady. Plus, the Pittsburgh offense hasn't scored more than 13 points in the last three weeks...what New England did to them is understandable, they have a dynamic offense. Pittsburgh is in shambles though. Denver probably drew the best opponent this week. Houston's defense is too good, Cincinnati can be explosive. Who knows

Personally I think the AFC is a crap shoot.

 

[Kaiten]

Re: The NFL Thread

It was a joke, Tebow's year has basically been a bad sports movie. Why let it stop now?

Even banged up Pittsburgh is still good enough to play goal line defense and defend short side line routes. That's all that needs to be done to stop Tebow. He can't throw deep, he can't throw hard over the middle, and he can't throw any timing routes. He is an excellent open field runner but with all his deficiencies teams can keep extra men in the box and take that away from him. New England, Buffalo, and Kansas City are not exactly great defensive teams but all were able to contain him as a runner with seemingly little effort. And he is not capable of punishing teams for stacking the box. Denver is basically the 2009 Dolphins after teams figured out how to defend the wild cat. Tebow has been figured out, it was fun while it lasted. Pittsburgh has to veteran a defense and are to well coached to let Tebow beat them.

Houston should be Cincinnati, though I would not call it a gimme with all of Houston's injuries. Their defense is still to good for the Bengals to beat. Tennessee is the only team they beat this year with a winning record. Wade Philips should go to the hall of fame as an assistant, if that were possible. He may be a mediocre head coach but he is one of the best defensive coordinators in recent memory. Dick Lebeau may be one the best ever, among current defensive assistants Philips is close behind.

 

[xi0]

Re: The NFL Thread

New England may have had success doing that against him, but they also have an offense that kept the game out of reach in the second half and made it easier. That's how you negate Tebow. Not all teams have that type of offense of course, but Tebow is the last QB you can count on in a shoot-out.

 

[predsfan]

Re: The NFL Thread

Whelp, it's either going to be a great, terrible, or average day for me today. Got both my teams going (Cincy and Detroit). While I want both to win, if only one can I have to go for the Lions. The Lions beating the Saints would just be sweet on so many levels that I really can't explain. I'll be back later with either a suicide note or incessant bragging.

 

[xi0]

Re: The NFL Thread

Whelp, it's either going to be a great, terrible, or average day for me today. Got both my teams going (Cincy and Detroit). While I want both to win, if only one can I have to go for the Lions. The Lions beating the Saints would just be sweet on so many levels that I really can't explain. I'll be back later with either a suicide note or incessant bragging.

The Bengals aren't looking so good right now ...I think I'd prefer if they lost anyways. I'd rather face TJ Yates than Roethlisberger next week...I think. Thought if the Broncos are able to beat the Steelers, I would rather face Tebow

 

[predsfan]

Re: The NFL Thread

Aghhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh! Can't say it was unexpected. Being of fan of these teams gets one accustomed to losing, so at least I'm used to it. Looks like it's time to start rooting for the Patriots again (I like Brady b/c he went University of Michigan; once he's gone I go back to disliking the Pats) and I guess the Falcon's or Packers in the NFC.

 

[xi0]

Re: The NFL Thread

Looks like the Steelers might be having an early exit

Though I certainly think they had a better shot at beating the Steelers next week than the Broncos do.

 

[Kaiten]

Re: The NFL Thread

Denver - Pittsburgh was easily the best game of the weekend. Tebow made some really nice passes tonight. The game winning touchdown pass was dead on the money, one of the most accurate throws I've seen him make. If he could consistently make throws like that Denver would be a great team. To often he forces a wide open receiver to stretch out for a pass, taking away run after the catch opportunities. They may have put the game away in the fourth quarter if not for that.

I have to give Denver's coaching staff a lot of credit. They game plan so well, are so good at playing to their teams strength, and the playing calling on both sides of the ball was good all day. Quite the contrast to Mike Smith in Atlanta who did an awful job today.

Drew Brees looks unstoppable. San Fransisco has a great defense but I wonder if they can keep the game close enough for the offense to handle. It does help that New Orleans does not have much of a pass rush, Alex Smith should have time to throw.

 

[predsfan]

Re: The NFL Thread


What else is there to say? God I hate the Steelers, and today's game made me so happy.

 

[xi0]

Re: The NFL Thread

No one likes the Steelers unless you're a Steeler fan. I thought they would have a better shot at beating New England than Denver, but now I'm not so sure ...a healthy Steeler team definitely would have.

 

[Kaiten]

Re: The NFL Thread

I'm from that insular little universe known as the NFC East. I'm indifferent to the rest of the league. My hate is reserved for the Eagles, the Giants, and the Cowboys. And I miss beating up on the Cardinals every season

I have nothing against Tebow, I actually rooted for him in college. He's a real football player, I respect the way he plays the game even if he is not the most skilled quarterback ever. The Broncos have been one of the most exciting teams to watch this season. But I loathe his fans in the media, especially Skip Bayless. I'm sick of the story, I was hoping the Steelers would make it go away.

Irritating pundits aside I am looking forward to New England v Broncos round II. Hopefully it is better than the first game, I assume it will be.

 

[xi0]

Re: The NFL Thread

I don't really think it will be. I can't really see the Patriots yielding the middle of the field to Tebow. All they have to do is treat the guy like a QB and they should beat them easily. Even if the Broncos have some successful drives, I can't really see them stopping the Patriots offense. They'll have to score touchdowns, and even as mediocre as the Patriots defense has looked, I don't think there's any surprise factor left.

 

[kdowns]

Re: The NFL Thread

My Predictions for this weekend.

Balt beats Hou
NE beats Denver

NYG beats GB
NO beats SF


NYG/GB Game, Mark my words, NYG will win it.

 

[Kaiten]

Re: The NFL Thread

The way the Giants are playing an upset sounds reasonable. That front four is amazing, as good as the 2007 squad. Jason Pierre-Paul is a revelation. I remember the draft hype for him. A typical work out wonder, not a well known player before the combine. I would be glad to see him fulfill his potential if only he did not play the Redskins twice a year.

I'm not picking against Tebow again. New England over Denver would sound good if logic were involved. But logic is nowhere to be found when discussing Denver. Since when has a 1-4 team benched it's traditional NFL quarterback in favor of an option quarterback, installed a college offense, went 8-8, backed into the play offs but some how won an epic, well played first round game? New England will probably win but I doubt the coaching staff is getting much sleep this week.

 

[xi0]

Re: The NFL Thread

The way the Giants are playing an upset sounds reasonable. That front four is amazing, as good as the 2007 squad. Jason Pierre-Paul is a revelation. I remember the draft hype for him. A typical work out wonder, not a well known player before the combine. I would be glad to see him fulfill his potential if only he did not play the Redskins twice a year.

I'm not picking against Tebow again. New England over Denver would sound good if logic were involved. But logic is nowhere to be found when discussing Denver. Since when has a 1-4 team benched it's traditional NFL quarterback in favor of an option quarterback, installed a college offense, went 8-8, backed into the play offs but some how won an epic, well played first round game? New England will probably win but I doubt the coaching staff is getting much sleep this week.

So your picking Denver but you're admitting New England will probably win?

 

[Kaiten]

Re: The NFL Thread

No. I'm being indecisive and not picking either. It's a game I would never put money on, no matter what.