Games MAFIA GAME 19 END!

[Nii]

Re: MAFIA GAME 19

And it was foolish to investigate me toc, I told you I'm a townie well at least it clears me from the suspicion (yeah I know bene he could still be naive...) but you're most likely the next one to be killed now

 

[benelori]

Re: MAFIA GAME 19

He might as well be the real deal too, since there was no proof that Hardy wasn't the naive one, so...

 

[Nii]

Re: MAFIA GAME 19

Give me some suspicions/thoughts guys

He might as well be the real deal too, since there was no proof that Hardy wasn't the naive one, so...

Yes

What makes you believe Shin is mafia? Just because he created a tie?

 

[benelori]

Re: MAFIA GAME 19

What makes you believe Shin is mafia? Just because he created a tie?

That and the "slip" at the beginning of the day...but these 2 things are such baseless stuff, even more so if I believe him and his behaviour as a first time player...not to mention that I did block him tonight and nothing was prevented...

But his nonchalance in creating a tie was a bit disturbing...I'm always adamant in this game not to sacrifice townies if we can avoid it...and he just went ahead and did just that...

From my POV all of you who didn't change their votes are suspicious...

 

[Mazino]

Re: MAFIA GAME 19

Looking at the votes from the last round and what I know, I am getting suspicious of these guys who voted against wizzard ( kkck, kdowns, mazino, shin). At least, one or two of them should be mafia. niichan sounds legit to be honest.

u too would have voted against wizz,and also without any reason ....see

I am also joining the majority camp.

Votekill wizzard

so toc is detective and investigated niichan and he was told that niichan is townie...if i read everything right(instrucions and roles),it still can be that toc got false info cant it?

i suspect bene and shin most...but shins action yesterday rlly was mafia like,cuz he didnt care if he killed 2 townies,also his fake stating he was mafia,could be the real thing,so i´ll say he is a lil more suspicious than bene,i would still wait to give my vote a lil bit ...but i cant vote so yeah shin>bene atm

 

[kkck]

Re: MAFIA GAME 19

Well, what does the math of a double kill suggest?

We have 3 possibilities:
2 townies. Most likely scenario and without a doubt the most damaging one.

1 townie 1 mafia. Beneficial scenario overall, killing a mafia is well worth a townie.

2 mafias. Extremely unlikely in the early stages of the game but also highly beneficial. Can't stress this enough, very improbable.

Now, there is also the consideration that how exactly we proceed with the game has an effect here. Lets take what just happened as an example. Wizzard got killed and mazino lived. What would happen in the follow scenarios:

A.- Mazino is votekilled next
B.- Mazino is not votekilled next.

Mazino was for whatever reason the most suspicious person after wizzard which is not necessarily likely to change this round. So how does the situation compare to the alternative where mazino gets killed alongside wizzard?

If mazino and wizzard get killed together it means that for one thing there was a greater chance of catching a mafia that round. There were 10 players and 2 mafias meaning that if we picked 2 people there was a respectable 20% chance of catching a mafia there. In turn, just having 1 lynched character implies we have a somewhat less respectable 10% chance of catching a mafia.

Now, there is also the consideration of whether going through suspects faster is beneficial for us. Lets take 2 days and 2 nights for example.

First day 2 people die
night 1 person dies
second day 2 people die
second night 1 person does.

And now the other one

First day 1 person dies
first night 1 person dies
second day 1 person dies
second night 1 person dies\

One way or the other townies start out as a majority here. So basically one way or the other townies are the ones who have more control over the game. So in the first scenario we would potentially get rid of 6 people in 2 days however we also would be going through townie options faster. Yes, it could be an issue however the fact that we would go through many options while the mafia goes through less nights could be beneficial. I mean, in one option the townies would go through 4 possibilities in 2 nights (hypothetically 2 mafia kills) while in the other the ratio of townie kills to mafia kills is even. I admit I am not entirely sure if this is a good idea as a whole (if someone could point out more details that I failed to notice it would be awesome) however I don't think we have thought about this enough to suggest it is outright a bad idea.

 

[benelori]

Re: MAFIA GAME 19

The problem is with the others we kill besides the hypothetical 2 mobsters(4 other people)...townies aren't just regular ones...the main ideas behind my reluctance to go for double kills is first, avoiding the worst case scenario, and the other is to try hard and keep the beneficial roles alive...we don't know what roles are distributed and how many, so math doesn't help us this time...also there's the possibility of having a 3rd party in the game too, which would complicate stuff even more...but I think the most relevant thing is that mafias can have secondary roles as well, and quite useful ones...if we go ahead and kill detectives and doctors or other roles, our chances of countering the mafia are lower and lower

 

[kkck]

Re: MAFIA GAME 19

Well, the third party would definitely be an issue with the odds but not too bad. Roles are still a minor thing though. While some are without a doubt helpful I would argue the fact that there is the insane and naive versionto deal with would offset this to some extent. In the end there is no role that can actually turn the game around. Then again, I don't think we should underestimate the idea of limiting in about half the amount of nights in the game. Overall the more nights there are the better chance the mafia has to win as they get to handpick who to kill.

 

[Nii]

Re: MAFIA GAME 19

I agree with kk there, the more fast we get rid of suspicious people the better it is. That's not saying we should aim for a tie though but that I like the general idea, even though it can turn out bad too.

That being said I have no clear suspect, for now it probably is Mazino, Shin and bene. kk didn't give the impression of being mafia. Kdowns and zasz could be anything, can't judge them with the very few posts they've made until now.

 

[kkck]

Re: MAFIA GAME 19

While getting rid of "suspicious" people and doubling our chances of finding a mafia each round is important I still think that the most important thing we should consider is limiting mafia movements. We are IMO better of if we allow the magia less nights. Its not like there is a benefit to a longer game. Setting roles and mod kills aside lets compare how a game like the one we are playing now would look like in either scenario as a whole:

Day 1
Players: 16
Day kills: 2
night kills: 1


Day 2
Players: 13
Day kills: 2
night kills: 1


Day 3
Players: 10
Day kills: 2
night kills: 1


Day 4
Players: 7
Day kills: 2
night kills: 1


Day 5
Players: 4
Day kills: 2
night kills: 1


Day 6 (not playable)
Players: 1


And now the other:
Day 1
Players: 16
Day kills: 1
night kills: 1


Day 2
Players: 14
Day kills: 1
night kills: 1


Day 3
Players: 12
Day kills: 1
night kills: 1


Day 4
Players: 10
Day kills: 1
night kills: 1


Day 5
Players: 8
Day kills: 1
night kills: 1


Day 6
Players: 6
Day kills: 1
night kills: 1

Day 7
Players: 4
Day kills: 1
night kills: 1

Day 8(not playable)
Players: 2


It might not seem like much at first (2 nights difference) but how much are those 2 nights worth to the mafia? As far as the mafia is concerned those 2 nights represent a 28% decrease in their amount of handpick kills. Not to mention that as the amount of townies decreases the probability of getting mafias increases. Lets assume we get to day 4 in the first scenario without any mafia kills (even though we would have gone through more than half the players by then). In that round there would be 7 players left and if there were no mafia kills up to then we would have just about 50% chance of getting a mafia member. Of course, if we do not get any mafia members even then (which is unlikely) we would be screwed as there would be a majority of mafias next round.

In turn, what happens with the alternative? We have more days which also means mafia people can handpick more deaths. We also get a smaller chance to get a mafia each round. Roles in the end can work with or against either scenario. Getting more people killed faster would perhaps limit even more the amount of nights too perhaps.

---------- Post added at 05:02 PM ---------- Previous post was at 04:08 PM ----------

Ok, so this is the part of the game where desperate pattern theories appear so here is mine (although since the disaster of last round feel free to discredit my points). Seeing the last 2 days votes there are only two that are in fact consistent. Kdowns and mazino voted for the same person in both days. Farfalla, a mafia, didn't vote with them however they also wouldn't need her to. Benelori voted the same as those 2 two in the end however it did seem that in the second day he did so only to avoid a tie and the numbers would make no sense as it would imply there are still 3 mafia. I am more than open for more crackpot theories though.

 

[Mazino]

Re: MAFIA GAME 19

i voted wizz cuz with his crazy style he was suspicious to me,and though i had other suspects too,he was on the top from the beginning,and i wanted him out,no matter what...
it was a mistake to kill him,but well in this game u make mistakes
also i play for the first time so maybe im overseeing lil details which would have helped me to make a more clever decision
(also nobody answered my question,even if its a stupid question... just wanted it to be confirmed)

 

[Nii]

Re: MAFIA GAME 19

Ok, so this is the part of the game where desperate pattern theories appear so here is mine (although since the disaster of last round feel free to discredit my points). Seeing the last 2 days votes there are only two that are in fact consistent. Kdowns and mazino voted for the same person in both days. Farfalla, a mafia, didn't vote with them however they also wouldn't need her to. Benelori voted the same as those 2 two in the end however it did seem that in the second day he did so only to avoid a tie and the numbers would make no sense as it would imply there are still 3 mafia. I am more than open for more crackpot theories though.

Wow, that's a far stretch I like it though, it might not be totally off. The problem is I am willing to kill any of these guys because I don't have someone who I would deem the most suspicious.

I need to leave soon so I probably should decide on who to vote for now

---------- Post added October 31, 2012 at 12:08 AM ---------- Previous post was October 30, 2012 at 11:26 PM ----------

Need to leave now, I have to give my vote now in case I'm not back in time.

votekill shinsengumi because of reasons bene mentioned and because I'm tired of people not saying anything.

I will try to check the thread tomorrow when I get up and see if there's anything new that would make me change my vote.

 

[kkck]

Re: MAFIA GAME 19

I am going votekill mazino. I don't have any clues other than going for the guy who was second last time. Hopefully you guys were right last round.

 

[kdowns]

Re: MAFIA GAME 19

I am going to have to Vote:Mazino

 

[thornofcarrion]

Re: MAFIA GAME 19

Interesting analysis in above posts. Well, can't be too detailed *in office*.

Votekill Shin

 

[digitaldude]

Re: MAFIA GAME 19

Spoiler

Wow, that's a far stretch I like it though, it might not be totally off. The problem is I am willing to kill any of these guys because I don't have someone who I would deem the most suspicious.

I need to leave soon so I probably should decide on who to vote for now

---------- Post added October 31, 2012 at 12:08 AM ---------- Previous post was October 30, 2012 at 11:26 PM ----------

Need to leave now, I have to give my vote now in case I'm not back in time.

votekill shinsengumi because of reasons bene mentioned and because I'm tired of people not saying anything.

I will try to check the thread tomorrow when I get up and see if there's anything new that would make me change my vote.

I am going votekill mazino. I don't have any clues other than going for the guy who was second last time. Hopefully you guys were right last round.

I am going to have to Vote:Mazino

Interesting analysis in above posts. Well, can't be too detailed *in office*.

Votekill Shin

The only thing I can say for certain, and correct me if I'm wrong is that KD can't be either sane nor insane doctor...or at least the possibility of being insane is really low...the mafia knows whom the target is so they cover it up as well...if the kill is KD's kill as an insane doctor, then it's a huge stretch to say that the janitor picked the same name as well...

So KD is either mafia, or a naive doctor...

What bugs me though is shin's behaviour...not only he forced me to break the tie, although it's funny that only I felt that the tie is wrong(I did expect others to change their votes), but he did so nonchalantly(reading the pages is boring?), without even thinking of the consequences of a double townie kill...because that was the biggest risk...if Mazino is townie as well, then this night would've been a disaster...

If he is a mafia, then this hold shtick gets another meaning entirely, and not to mention that it strengthens the suspicion around me, for being the only to change the vote...

He is inactive and he managed to even be more suspicious than wizzard ever was lol...and it certainly passed over both niichan and mazino who are on the top of my list as well...

votekill shinsengumi

Shin 3x(benelori, thorn, niichan)

mazino 2x( kdowns, kkck)

no vote mazino

6/8 voted

---------- Post added at 07:54 AM ---------- Previous post was at 07:47 AM ----------

9 hours left!

 

[Zasz]

Re: MAFIA GAME 19

We already remained in 8? That's surprising, anyway.......

Votekill Mazino.

 

[digitaldude]

Re: MAFIA GAME 19

Spoiler

We already remained in 8? That's surprising, anyway.......

Votekill Mazino.

Wow, that's a far stretch I like it though, it might not be totally off. The problem is I am willing to kill any of these guys because I don't have someone who I would deem the most suspicious.

I need to leave soon so I probably should decide on who to vote for now

---------- Post added October 31, 2012 at 12:08 AM ---------- Previous post was October 30, 2012 at 11:26 PM ----------

Need to leave now, I have to give my vote now in case I'm not back in time.

votekill shinsengumi because of reasons bene mentioned and because I'm tired of people not saying anything.

I will try to check the thread tomorrow when I get up and see if there's anything new that would make me change my vote.

I am going votekill mazino. I don't have any clues other than going for the guy who was second last time. Hopefully you guys were right last round.

I am going to have to Vote:Mazino

Interesting analysis in above posts. Well, can't be too detailed *in office*.

Votekill Shin

The only thing I can say for certain, and correct me if I'm wrong is that KD can't be either sane nor insane doctor...or at least the possibility of being insane is really low...the mafia knows whom the target is so they cover it up as well...if the kill is KD's kill as an insane doctor, then it's a huge stretch to say that the janitor picked the same name as well...

So KD is either mafia, or a naive doctor...

What bugs me though is shin's behaviour...not only he forced me to break the tie, although it's funny that only I felt that the tie is wrong(I did expect others to change their votes), but he did so nonchalantly(reading the pages is boring?), without even thinking of the consequences of a double townie kill...because that was the biggest risk...if Mazino is townie as well, then this night would've been a disaster...

If he is a mafia, then this hold shtick gets another meaning entirely, and not to mention that it strengthens the suspicion around me, for being the only to change the vote...

He is inactive and he managed to even be more suspicious than wizzard ever was lol...and it certainly passed over both niichan and mazino who are on the top of my list as well...

votekill shinsengumi

Shin 3x(benelori, thorn, niichan)

mazino 3x( kdowns, kkck, Zasz)

no vote mazino

7/8 voted

Only shin is left to vote.

 

[shinsengumi]

Re: MAFIA GAME 19

i dont think mazino is a mafia but i have to vote for him or i'll be the one going .but if he turns out to be mafia that will make me the number 1 suspect and i'll die the next day anyway .
my suspect still remains as bene ,he could be faking the prostitute and hardy could be a traitor . i know at least one of the blues is a mafia ,i just cant put my finger on him

to save my hide , votekill mazino

 

[digitaldude]

Re: MAFIA GAME 19

Spoiler

i dont think mazino is a mafia but i have to vote for him or i'll be the one going .but if he turns out to be mafia that will make me the number 1 suspect and i'll die the next day anyway .
my suspect still remains as bene ,he could be faking the prostitute and hardy could be a traitor . i know at least one of the blues is a mafia ,i just cant put my finger on him

to save my hide , votekill mazino

We already remained in 8? That's surprising, anyway.......

Votekill Mazino.

Wow, that's a far stretch I like it though, it might not be totally off. The problem is I am willing to kill any of these guys because I don't have someone who I would deem the most suspicious.

I need to leave soon so I probably should decide on who to vote for now

---------- Post added October 31, 2012 at 12:08 AM ---------- Previous post was October 30, 2012 at 11:26 PM ----------

Need to leave now, I have to give my vote now in case I'm not back in time.

votekill shinsengumi because of reasons bene mentioned and because I'm tired of people not saying anything.

I will try to check the thread tomorrow when I get up and see if there's anything new that would make me change my vote.

I am going votekill mazino. I don't have any clues other than going for the guy who was second last time. Hopefully you guys were right last round.

I am going to have to Vote:Mazino

Interesting analysis in above posts. Well, can't be too detailed *in office*.

Votekill Shin

The only thing I can say for certain, and correct me if I'm wrong is that KD can't be either sane nor insane doctor...or at least the possibility of being insane is really low...the mafia knows whom the target is so they cover it up as well...if the kill is KD's kill as an insane doctor, then it's a huge stretch to say that the janitor picked the same name as well...

So KD is either mafia, or a naive doctor...

What bugs me though is shin's behaviour...not only he forced me to break the tie, although it's funny that only I felt that the tie is wrong(I did expect others to change their votes), but he did so nonchalantly(reading the pages is boring?), without even thinking of the consequences of a double townie kill...because that was the biggest risk...if Mazino is townie as well, then this night would've been a disaster...

If he is a mafia, then this hold shtick gets another meaning entirely, and not to mention that it strengthens the suspicion around me, for being the only to change the vote...

He is inactive and he managed to even be more suspicious than wizzard ever was lol...and it certainly passed over both niichan and mazino who are on the top of my list as well...

votekill shinsengumi

mazino 4x( kdowns, kkck, Zasz, shin)

Shin 3x(benelori, thorn, niichan)

no vote mazino

8/8 voted