Games MAFIA GAME 22 DEATH NOTE ENDGAME!!

[MidoBan]

Re: MAFIA GAME 22 DEATH NOTE! DAY 5!

Organizized what are your role before mason? Xi0 is the prostitute right?

 

[Hakuteiken]

Re: MAFIA GAME 22 DEATH NOTE! DAY 5!

Excellent. I'm happy that you claimed the role of a doctor.
So, since you avoided killing someone three times in a row, you aren't insane, you are naive. Then, Faust should be the insane one, since he also claims to be the doctor. But well, Faust has also claimed that he went for niichan back-to-back nights. And nothing happened. So, he can't be the insane doctor.

That means:
1) There are two naive doctors.
2) One of you is lying.

---------- Post added at 08:32 AM ---------- Previous post was at 08:27 AM ----------

Xi0 is the prostitute right?

That's right.

 

[jorped]

Re: MAFIA GAME 22 DEATH NOTE! DAY 5!

How can you clearly say Faust isn't insane? It doesn't make any sense. There's 50% chance of him being able to protect/kill, so doing that a couple of times won't necessarily prove anything. It's 50% each night .... going for Niichan 2 times and him being a live, doesn't prove anything. If he is indeed the insane, it's weird, how both times he didn't kill him, but it's nothing impossible to happen!

So i don't really understand how you can say he is or isn't insane, based on that.

 

[Organizized]

Re: MAFIA GAME 22 DEATH NOTE! DAY 5!

Actually I think jorped's activities make a lot of sense. What makes me suspicious is the way he's acting right now.. Maybe he makes a little... too much sense?

Damnit, Faust should be here. I want to hear what you two have to say for yourselves when in the "same room".

 

[Charlie]

Re: MAFIA GAME 22 DEATH NOTE! DAY 5!

Actually I think jorped's activities make a lot of sense. What makes me suspicious is the way he's acting right now.. Maybe he makes a little... too much sense?

Damnit, Faust should be here. I want to hear what you two have to say for yourselves when in the "same room".

Thats not suspicious he is trying to clear his name as we were suspecting him.

 

[Organizized]

Re: MAFIA GAME 22 DEATH NOTE! DAY 5!

Thats not suspicious he is trying to clear his name as we were suspecting him.

I don't think you see my point. But I'll let that wait for now.

 

[Hakuteiken]

Re: MAFIA GAME 22 DEATH NOTE! DAY 5!

How can you clearly say Faust isn't insane? It doesn't make any sense. There's 50% chance of him being able to protect/kill, so doing that a couple of times won't necessarily prove anything. It's 50% each night .... going for Niichan 2 times and him being a live, doesn't prove anything. If he is indeed the insane, it's weird, how both times he didn't kill him, but it's nothing impossible to happen!

So i don't really understand how you can say he is or isn't insane, based on that.

I know. I don't look over even the tiny possibilities available.
I also said you can't be insane, yet, you chose to pick up only Faust's case at the hand in your reply. That was actually a trap to measure your reaction. I just wanted to see whether you would subconsciously push Faust's name forward or treat both of yours as equals. It looks like a failure for your side as things stand now, but I'll take another look, anyway.

 

[Charlie]

Re: MAFIA GAME 22 DEATH NOTE! DAY 5!

I don't think you see my point. But I'll let that wait for now.

I understood what you meant but at the same, he is trying to clear his name.

 

[Nii]

Re: MAFIA GAME 22 DEATH NOTE! DAY 5!

I'm trying to sort out my thoughts, give me some time.

How can you clearly say Faust isn't insane? It doesn't make any sense. There's 50% chance of him being able to protect/kill, so doing that a couple of times won't necessarily prove anything. It's 50% each night .... going for Niichan 2 times and him being a live, doesn't prove anything. If he is indeed the insane, it's weird, how both times he didn't kill him, but it's nothing impossible to happen!

So i don't really understand how you can say he is or isn't insane, based on that.

Don't forget that it's impossible to kill me at night, the bulletproof townie can only be lynched at day.

 

[Hakuteiken]

Re: MAFIA GAME 22 DEATH NOTE! DAY 5!

I'm trying to sort out my thoughts, give me some time.



Don't forget that it's impossible to kill me at night, the bulletproof townie can only be lynched at day.

Take your time.
We considered the possibility that you were lying and weren't a Bulletproof Townie.

 

[jorped]

Re: MAFIA GAME 22 DEATH NOTE! DAY 5!

I know. I don't look over even the tiny possibilities available.
I also said you can't be insane, yet, you chose to pick up only Faust's case at the hand in your reply. That was actually a trap to measure your reaction. I just wanted to see whether you would subconsciously push Faust's name forward or treat both of yours as equals. It looks like a failure for your side as things stand now, but I'll take another look, anyway.

You serious? Talking about either me or faust, would be exactly the same thing. We both targeted Niichan 2 days. I was just proving you it didn't make any sense mathematically what you were saying. I see now you were trying to trap me, honestly wasn't expecting that or didn't even see it, because of the incoherence of your post. Anyway you are being pretty biased ... at this point if i had mentioned myself only, i would still had failed to you.

And at this point you seem to doubt me more than any one else, so why would i use a case referring only to me to prove anything? I used Faust because it's a a scenario everyone seems to not find suspicious.

 

[Organizized]

Re: MAFIA GAME 22 DEATH NOTE! DAY 5!

You serious? Talking about either me or faust, would be exactly the same thing. We both targeted Niichan 2 days. I was just proving you it didn't make any sense mathematically what you were saying. I see now you were trying to trap me, honestly wasn't expecting that or didn't even see it, because of the incoherence of your post. Anyway you are being pretty biased ... at this point if i had mentioned myself only, i would still had failed to you.

Actually, that's exactly what I spotted as well. Why would you be switching the focus onto Faust if you knew that you were both in the exact same situation? What you should be doing right now is put all your cards on the table to try to protect yourself. Which you haven't done, and I'm not just talking about this.

 

[Hakuteiken]

Re: MAFIA GAME 22 DEATH NOTE! DAY 5!

You serious? Talking about either me or faust, would be exactly the same thing. We both targeted Niichan 2 days. I was just proving you it didn't make any sense mathematically what you were saying. I see now you were trying to trap me, honestly wasn't expecting that or didn't even see it, because of the incoherence of your post. Anyway you are being pretty biased ... at this point if i had mentioned myself only, i would still had failed to you.

And at this point you seem to doubt me more than any one else, so why would i use a case referring only to me to prove anything? I used Faust because it's a a scenario everyone seems to not find suspicious.

Well, actually, you acknowledged using your skill three times, so, the possibility of you being insane is weaker compared to Faust. Giving away your name would help you make a strong case. And what makes you think you'd fail at any case? We were considering how Faust could be lying together with Organizized. We are indeed suspecting him, as well.

To be honest, I have no reasons to be biased. I won't be sad to see either of you going down at this point by a mistake. It's no different than MJ going down. If it was a situation between a strong player and you, I'd definitely have a biased look, but Faust has got out of the radar for a good while now and it's hard to see him keeping up with every detail, either.

 

[MidoBan]

Re: MAFIA GAME 22 DEATH NOTE! DAY 5!

Jorped, why did you have not considered that you killed evil?

 

[jorped]

Re: MAFIA GAME 22 DEATH NOTE! DAY 5!

Actually, that's exactly what I spotted as well. Why would you be switching the focus onto Faust if you knew that you were both in the exact same situation? What you should be doing right now is put all your cards on the table to try to protect yourself. Which you haven't done, and I'm not just talking about this.

Lets then look what you guys really asked me:

Excellent. I'm happy that you claimed the role of a doctor.
So, since you avoided killing someone three times in a row, you aren't insane, you are naive. Then, Faust should be the insane one, since he also claims to be the doctor. But well, Faust has also claimed that he went for niichan back-to-back nights. And nothing happened. So, he can't be the insane doctor.

That means:
1) There are two naive doctors.
2) One of you is lying.

In order to make me look suspicious you used Faust.
So it doesn't make sense to have me a suspect if i try to clean my name that way.

I said i was prolly the naive doctor, and i do think Faust is the insane, and Imp was the sane doctor. By proving that Faust is much likely the insane, something that imo, is more likely now that xi0 died, which i had nothing to do it, since i protected evil this last night phase.

Ofc there might be a chance there's a poisoner, but based on what happened on this last night phases, i would say it isn't likely at all.

Anyway, you guys might have ask me why i only revealed my role now, and i didn't when faust told us(?) and Imp was already determined as one. And the reason is that i didn't really feel like it was needed. And there is something you can always win by only revealing the roles lately. Even now, i didn't really wanted to reveal my role yet, but since i am being seen as the main suspect i really had to.

 

[Nii]

Re: MAFIA GAME 22 DEATH NOTE! DAY 5!

I know for sure though @Haku

So let's see, Haku confirmed Orgz is a mason now and Moa is out of the question so here are the remaining suspects:

jorped: I seriously doubt he's mafia, I can't find anything suspicious about besides his inactivity. His story is coherent too. You shouldn't forget that doctor isn't the easiest role to claim - it's the normal townie. So what do we have: Imp as a doctor and Faust claiming he's a doctor too. Jorp saying he's a doc puts him at a huge risk because there's no way to know if there's a possible third doctor out there (in case he would have lied). This would lead to three people stating they are doctors (I don't recall a game which had more than 3 doctors so it's pretty much impossible to have four), putting someone as inactive as him at the worst place, most likely. It would have been a much safer route to go the "I'm a townie with no role" since the start, like Mido or Mazino did.
Don't forget he's a noob and acts on reflex, meaning he's a very passionate person and usually acts without thinking too much (sorry dude ) so to me the case of voting for KD cleared him more than making him suspicious.

Chances of jorped being mafia: 10%

MidoBan: Has been very active and quite helpful lately. He put out a lot of thoughts and was trying to find out everyone's role, making it visible to everyone. Now this either means he's a mafia, trying to make this more simple for his buddies at night or he's indeed just a helpful townie who can't do anything at night so he tries his best at day. On another note he was the second to vote for lawlett on day two, starting a possible bandwagon. His behaviour could be very well executed mafia plan but at this point I believe the chances of him being townie are higher than being a mafia.

Chances of him being Mafia: 30%

Mazino: Was very inactive since the start and said near to nothing. He put out a thought or two but voted without explaining anything. First day he voted for me and didn't give any reasons besides me being mafia in past games. Second day he votes for Haku, just agreeing with Nuno. This is pretty much mafia behaviour: Posting something without adding anything. It's a case similar to Frosty and a usual pattern to people who fear to get attention. Further he stated to be a normal townie but told it in a cryptical way ("It's something I don't like cause I could be anything"). That pretty much told us his role but it's a nice strategy to make it look like "I don't wanna tell but I guess I have to". Just stating you're a normal townie will give you a lot more attention and thus is a rather bad idea for a mafia.
One shouldn't forget that he never voted for lawlett, neither on Day 2 nor on Day 3. I checked it, he posted when everyone was starting to go at lawlett so he definitely was there and could have voted but he didn't, he barely even mentioned lawl. He was the first to vote for Milly too and acted pretty damn fast, without giving it much thought.
All of this makes him the most likely mafia to me.

Chances of Mazino being mafia: 80%


Charlie: Difficult case, has barely been active and never said much. A case kinda similar to Mazino but a lot more well-disguised because he participated in a few discussions. Lawlett mentioned him being a "shady guy", which might have been a try to make every feel like they're not connected. Saying "Shady guy" isn't much of an accusation so it's unlikely to create a bandwagon on Charlie but people won't forget that he did say something bad about Charlie at one point. It's not a given but definitely a possibility. Next thing to note is that he too didn't vote for lawlett on both days. On Day 2 he made a silly vote for Imp, giving near to no reasons. Don't forget that Imp was a doc and had some little suspicions on him, though not much. Might have been a try to kill Imp without getting much attention. On Day 3 he didn't jump on the "kill lawlett wagon" despite being around, On Day 4 he jumped on the "kill M3J train" though. First was a mafia, second was a townie.
On a sidenote we haven't had a mafia mason in a long, long time so I could see DD actually using this role.
With all this, he's my second main suspect, He could be a very good spy and just tell his remaining mafia buddy (or buddies) who's the recruiter. Just going with the flow and when it's less suspicious kill the leader, sounds just like the way a mafia spy would act.

Chances of Charlie being mafia: 65%


That's it, I'm all for killing Mazino and afterwards most likely Charlie.

---------- Post added at 04:47 PM ---------- Previous post was at 04:46 PM ----------

ugh I forgot Faust

 

[Hakuteiken]

Re: MAFIA GAME 22 DEATH NOTE! DAY 5!

Well, got to log out for about 45 minutes. I will catch-up later on.
I'm only noting down one thing for now.

Don't forget he's a noob and acts on reflex, meaning he's a very passionate person and usually acts without thinking too much (sorry dude )

That's the line where jorped would be more willing to read that he was 100% Mafia

 

[Nii]

Re: MAFIA GAME 22 DEATH NOTE! DAY 5!

Faust: He's been acting really different to past games, where he had either a boring role or went straight for self-destruction as a bomb. Him acting rather active and normal this time might just be because he's finally a role where he can influence the whole the game through consecutive nights. Probably was the first time he had to think at night ("who should I protect, test my ability on?") which, together with a theme he liked, made him a lot more active and yes, way less trollish. He went for lawlett for two consecutive nights, which is a really rare behaviour for a mafia member. Why should you bring up your buddy twice? Of course it could be that this was just his plan, so he's not out of suspicion but I think it's not really likely atm. Him claiming to be a doctor at an early state was way more risky than claiming to be a normal townie too.

Chances of Faust being Mafia: 30%

 

[MidoBan]

Re: MAFIA GAME 22 DEATH NOTE! DAY 5!

Lets then look what you guys really asked me:



That means:
1) There are two naive doctors.
2) One of you is lying.

In order to make me look suspicious you used Faust.
So it doesn't make sense to have me a suspect if i try to clean my name that way.

I said i was prolly the naive doctor, and i do think Faust is the insane, and Imp was the sane doctor. By proving that Faust is much likely the insane, something that imo, is more likely now that xi0 died, which i had nothing to do it, since i protected evil this last night phase.

Ofc there might be a chance there's a poisoner, but based on what happened on this last night phases, i would say it isn't likely at all.

Anyway, you guys might have ask me why i only revealed my role now, and i didn't when faust told us(?) and Imp was already determined as one. And the reason is that i didn't really feel like it was needed. And there is something you can always win by only revealing the roles lately. Even now, i didn't really wanted to reveal my role yet, but since i am being seen as the main suspect i really had to.

Why do you think that Xi0 died by Faust and not by a Mafia? In this case, you killed Evil and the Mafia killed Xi0...

 

[jorped]

Re: MAFIA GAME 22 DEATH NOTE! DAY 5!

Sorry, i was answering a call, that's why i didn't answer as fast as i could.

Jorped, why did you have not considered that you killed evil?

At this point, to get to some conclusions you have to just check some possibilities, and see if they all connect each other. If that's the case, you can pretty much get to final decision even though you skipped some other possibilities.
Honestly lets think of all hypotheses. Between evil and xi0 who do you think would be the target from the Mafia? I don't really buy the theory of mafia having a poisoner, cuz since i am a doctor and faust is also a doctor and imp was confirmed also being a doctor, there's a chance of the remaining 2 docs, that one of us is the insane doctor, which obviously would explain why 2 people died. With this said the theory of existing a mafia poisoner it's almost zero i would say.

Now what really answers all this would be ... who did Mafia targeted? I think the answer is pretty clear. Why would the Mafia go for someone who has revealed his previous role, the way xi0 did? At this point it would be so much better for Mafia if they killed the recruiter. So if Evil died, while i was protecting him, it doesn't clear the suspicious of me being insane, but xi0 dying does. If xi0 died, and if my theory is right and the other doc, which is prolly faust, tried to protect him and ended killing him, it pretty much clears my suspicious as being insane, and at the same time, it's also clear i am not the doctor since i also failed to save evil.