Awards Oscars Contest 2020

[Riku]

Thank you all for participating in this event! This was a record year of participants and I'm glad about that! Thanks for the production and marketing team of Joker for such an excellent poster to use as banner material to lure curious people in!

But now for the most important part - winners!


On shared 3rd place (16 points) - @xi0 and @FaustXIII. Congratulations on good effort!

On shared 2nd place (18 points) - the formidable film lover @Eigengrau and none other than the mysterious legend himself @George Monkey. Again so close! Maybe next year is the year of this DiCaprio of MH. Congratulations for both for the extremely even and valiant fight for the throne.

*drumroll*

And on 1st place (18 points) - with the tie-breaker advantage from the Big 5, the many time nominee and second time winner -
Congratulations to my Swedish-dupe account @Organizized

Spoiler: All points and votes by participants

Disclaimer: I did the counting in a very tired state. If you spot any mistakes, let me know! The badge will be awarded later this month.

 

[Riku]

Btw, I just saw the Rebel Wilson announcement into the Best Director category of the BAFTAs, and I also agree that Rebel Wilson is the true winner of BAFTAs.

 

[Organizized]

Btw, I just saw the Rebel Wilson announcement into the Best Director category of the BAFTAs, and I also agree that Rebel Wilson is the true winner of BAFTAs.

Absolutely. And I usually don't really like Reben Wilson. I don't dislike her like many do, but always found her just meh. But I did genuinely laugh at her announcement speech here.

 

[goldb]

Her category announcement was one of the only things I've actually seen from this year's show ( that, Margot Robbie's acceptance of Brad's win and one of the young actor's win).

She's got that sorta uncomfortable humour to her, which can be hit and miss with me, but in this instance it was very funny.

 

[Faust]

1917's dominating the award shows so I changed my predictions.

 

[Organizized]

I'm like 85% sure 1917 is winning Best Picture, like I picked at first. And yet I'm sticking with Parasite all the way. It's got like a Moonlight kind of passion going for it across the guilds, and I've just got a gut feeling it could pull of an upset.

And then if the boring safe choice 1917 does win, I can say "yeah, shocker, whatever", but if I picked 1917 when I have a gut feeling about Parasite winning - and then it does - I'd never forgive myself.

(Yes, 1917 is a great film and truly a technical and directorial achievement, but it IS a boring, safe choice for Best Picture.)

 

[Eigengrau]

I'm like 85% sure 1917 is winning Best Picture, like I picked at first. And yet I'm sticking with Parasite all the way. It's got like a Moonlight kind of passion going for it across the guilds, and I've just got a gut feeling it could pull of an upset.

Now imagine for a second that Parasite ends up being announced as the winner, only for them to quickly realize that there was a mistake and it was 1917 all along.

:|

 

[Organizized]

Now imagine for a second that Parasite ends up being announced as the winner, only for them to quickly realize that there was a mistake and it was 1917 all along.

:|

Oh gotta prepare to play it cool if that happens (while I'll actually be screaming on the inside).

*A-hem.*

Yo, it don't need no host / The winner's still Parasite
Dropping like a North Korean nuke on Oscar nite
Wait, 1917? / Shiiet, this can't be right
Joon-Ho and his team / Pulled a reverse Moonlight

Yea boi, cool as my rapping grade school teacher.

--- Double Post Merged, Feb 7, 2020, Original Post Date: Feb 7, 2020 ---

Seriously though, if they open the envelope and it says "Parasite", pretty sure they'll double check it before announcing it.

Is anyone gonna stay up and watch the ceremony this year? I've got Monday off work, but still have to take care of two kids so dunno if staying up all night is a good idea..

 

[Riku]

I also have monday off, so I'm seriously considering it. I'm working nights thorough the weekend anyways, so should not mess with my sleep too much either.

 

[Organizized]

Might go to bed early and get up at 2AM when the ceremony starts.

I've sent in my answers four times now (two by mistake) and still not sure about them. I switched Make-up/Hairstyling from Bombshell to Joker on the last one because Bombshell isn't a Best Pic nominee (and won't be seen by all voters) and Joker is more popular overall... but now am changing my mind again. Bombshell looks like such a lock. We'll see if I actually change it, though, I feel like I've ruined my chances with all my chances already.

 

[Riku]

Dear ladies and gentleman, with great pride I present to you, the return of the one and only @George Monkey

The legend is in!

 

[Organizized]

Dear ladies and gentleman, with great pride I present to you, the return of the one and only @George Monkey

The legend is in!

 

[Eigengrau]

I'll be watching it from start to finish, though by the end of it I'll probably hate myself as is tradition by now.

Finally sent my predictions in, this year I think I'm going with a more statistical approach over what I really want to win.

Even though many categories are seemingly a lock, I think there's room for a lot of surprises, like maybe Klaus or I Lost My Body winning over Toy Story 4.

I didn't pick Parasite and Bong to win best picture/director, but it would be legendary and monumental for that to happen, and witness history being made.
I also didn't pick Parasite for Editing/Production Design, but I think there's a chance in there somewhere that it could score those awards as well, deservingly so.

I don't know, maybe it's just me but this year it seems like it was relatively easy to decide what to pick.
I love that Joker is the most nominated film and might end up sweeping more than anyone thinks, but considering the competition, I'm more than happy to see just Joaquin getting the Oscar, as well as Hildur for OST.

I fear Tarantino though...
And Scorsese as well.

Hopefully the academy has collectively fallen in love with Bong and decides to shower him with love, as opposed to keep stroking the peens of the great ones.
I feel like it would be really great and powerful not just for Korean cinema, but international films and directors as whole if Parasite took the top prizes.

And considering the competition, I think hardly anyone in the world would see it as a hand-out/pandering

Anyway, the game is on. Feel like a lot of people will get nearly the same amount of winning picks this year.
It all feels very predictable but hopefully it ends up being a surprising edition, for the better I hope.

 

[Organizized]

The Irishman is going home 0 for 10, I'm telling you. And deservedly so; what a disappointment that film was.

Honestly it felt predictable at first, but I still see a lot of the categories as pretty close races.

Picture - 1917 / Parasite
Adapted Screenplay - Jojo / Little Women
OG Screenplay - OUTIH / Parasite
Editing - Ford v Ferrari / Parasite
Makeup & Hair - Bombshell / Joker
Costume - Little Women / Jojo
Production Design - OUTIH / 1917 / Parasite
Animated Feature - TS4 / Klaus
Documentary - American Factory / For Sama / Honeyland
Sound Editing & Mixing - 1917 / FvF
Song - I'm Gonna Love Me Again / Stand Up
VFX - 1917 / Irishman / Lion King

Yeah, some of these are easier picks than others, but these are where I can see the "surprises" happening.

The acting races are pretty locked up, as well as cinematography. Director seems like a lock as well but you never know - some clips I've seen have shown Bong entering the room to thunderous applause like no one else got, so...

 

[pamuchi]

Today is the day

 

[Organizized]

Did we ever have this many participants before? I don’t think so. Fun. The kickass banner drew a crowd.

 

[goldb]

Dear ladies and gentleman, with great pride I present to you, the return of the one and only @George Monkey

The legend is in!

Every.
SIngle.
Year.

I swear to god, this guy

 

[Riku]

I just decided not to change my votes anymore. I'll go with my original feels, even if the general outlook has slightly shifted during the other awards. All the changes have been to positive direction, so won't feel disappointed if I get it wrong. Quite the contrary.

I have coffee, chocolate, a cat in my lap and printed photo of Roger Deakins to kiss and embrace when he wins his second statue. I'm ready.

--- Double Post Merged, Feb 9, 2020, Original Post Date: Feb 9, 2020 ---

Oh my, they actually have interesting hosts for the Finnish broadcast version this year. I've actually enjoyed the Red Carpet part for the first 10 minutes.

 

[Eigengrau]

I just decided not to change my votes anymore. I'll go with my original feels, even if the general outlook has slightly shifted during the other awards. All the changes have been to positive direction, so won't feel disappointed if I get it wrong. Quite the contrary.

Yeah I feel the same way, I only submitted mine once (earlier today) and that's that, but I won't be disappointed if Parasite ends up winning a bunch. I hope it does, I have a strange little feeling that it's really going to win but I dunno, could just be anxiety or something.

I have coffee, chocolate, a cat in my lap and printed photo of Roger Deakins to kiss and embrace when he wins his second statue. I'm ready.

Having a pet to warm my lap would be nice.

Would love to see The Lighthouse win cinematography, but I reckon the DP must be over the moon just by being nominated alongside Deakins. I think that alone is enough of a big win.

 

[Riku]

Yeah I feel the same way, I only submitted mine once (earlier today) and that's that, but I won't be disappointed if Parasite ends up winning a bunch. I hope it does, I have a strange little feeling that it's really going to win but I dunno, could just be anxiety or something.

Honestly, watching this carpet broadcast, I'm starting to feel like Parasite actually might have a chance after all. And I'm loving that.

Would love to see The Lighthouse win cinematography, but I reckon the DP must be over the moon just by being nominated alongside Deakins. I think that alone is enough of a big win.

The Lighthouse is definitely my favorite to win. But I can't see it happening. And I don't feel bad about it either though, because, well, Deakins.

But Lighthouse was such an achievement. That vintage gear in those shooting environments. And still it phenomal example of using images to convey feelings and story. The film wouldn't feel half as agonizing as it feels without how it is shot. The camera is like an extra tentacle or tiny cabin slowly grasping the characters tighter and tighter within the madness. Love it.

 

[Organizized]

Got a couple hours sleep before it starts. Should make some coffee.. My final picks:

Spoiler: Final Predix

Best Picture
Will win: 1917 (though I picked Parasite)
Could win: Parasite
(Who I) Want to win: Parasite
(1917 is the safe choice with PGA, DGA and BAFTA wins. Fuck safe. There hasn’t been Parasite-level kind of passion for a film in a long time and it’s won Guild awards across the board. The one thing it has going against it is that it’s foreign language. 1917 has to break several statistics precedents as well to win. I'm falling on the Parasite sword even if it costs me the win.)

Best Director
Will win: Sam Mendes
Could win: Bong Joon-Ho (though very unlikely)
Want to win: Bong Joon-Ho

Best Original Screenplay
Will win: Parasite
Could win: OUATIH
Want to win: Parasite

Best Adapted Screenplay
Will win: Jojo Rabbit
Could win: Little Women
Want to win: Jojo Rabbit or The Two Popes
(Changed from Little Women after Taika took the back-to-back WGA and BAFTA in the middle of final voting)

Best Actress
Will win: Renee Zellweger (Judy)
Could win: No one, I think.
Want to win: Renee or Scarlett Johansson (Marriage Story)

Best Actor
Will win: Joaquin Phoenix (Joker)
Could win: No one else.
Want to win: All five were fantastic tbh. But it is Joaquin’s time.

Best Supporting Actress
Will win: Laura Dern (Marriage Story)
Could win: Scarlett Johansson (Jojo Rabbit)
Want to win: Scarlett Johansson
(if an acting upset is happening, then it’s ScarJo winning this one. Highly doubt it though.)

Best Supporting Actor
Will win: Brad Pitt
Could win: He’s as locked as locked can be.
Want to win: Well, I liked Hanks the most, but am fine with Pitt finally winning his acting Oscar (even though I wasn’t as impressed by this role as others seem to be)

Best Cinematography
Will win: Roger Deakins (1917)
Could win: Nope, locked
Want to win: Jarin Blaschke (The Lighthouse)
(I would’ve loved to see The Lighthouse win this but no dice. Deakins is unstoppable.)

Best Film Editing
Will win: Ford v Ferrari
Could win: Parasite
Want to win: Parasite
(FvF’s got the flashiest editing, it’s got both Sound nominations which is statistically pretty much essential to win.. Parasite deserves this one because it’s so impeccably and tightly put together, but I think it’s flashy flash winner this year.)

Best Production Design
Will win: OUTIH
Could win: 1917
Want to win: Parasite
(Having watched videos about Parasite’s production design, I want it to win sooooo bad. But unfortunately, if anything is gonna beat Once Upon, I think it’ll be 1917.)

Best Costume Design
Will win: Little Women
Could win: Jojo Rabbit
Want to win: Jojo Rabbit
(LW’s only win of the evening. And that’s if Jojo doesn’t pull an upset - here’s hoping it does!)

Best Makeup/Haistyling:
Will win: Bombshell
Could win: Joker
Want to win: Bombshell
(I actually switched to Joker from Bombshell which seems to be the favorite, but I think Joker could win based on the fact that more voters will have watched it and it’s more popular overall, which usually wins this category the Oscar as opposed to the Guilds and BAFTA awards. EDIT: Switched back to Bombshell. )

Best Score
Will win: Joker
Could win: Maaaaaaaybe 1917?
Want to win: Joker or 1917
(It certainly deserves it. One of the best aspects of the film. 1917’s score is much more memorable though, but Joker’s is spot-on minimalism.)

Best Song
Will win: I’m Gonna Love Me Again (Rocketman)
Could win: Stand Up (Harriet)
Want to win: None of them. Worst original song year ever. “Glasgow (No Place Like Home)” from Wild Rose should’ve been nominated and won.
(Stand Up from Harriet might win if voters wanna make a #oscarssowhite statement. It’s also a powerful ballad which is usually a winning recipe. I just think Elton has this one in the bag.)

Best Sound Editing and Mixing
Will win: 1917
Could win: Ford v Ferrari
Want to win: Either of the two.
(Ford v Ferrari stands a chance here, but really think it’s gonna be the war film)

Best Visual FX
Will win: 1917
Could win: The Irishman… maybe The Lion King?
Want to win: Avengers: Endgame
(If The Irishman gets this one, I’ll riot. The Lion King deserves it, but is too disliked overall to win, I think. Marvel and Star Wars has a bad track record in this category.)

Best International Feature
Will win: Parasite
Could win: Nope.
Want to win: Parasite
(Nothing else stands a chance. Pain and Glory was great though.)

Best Animated Feature
Will win: Klaus
Could win: Toy Story 4
Want to win: I Lost My Body or Klaus
(Taking a risk and changing from TS4 here, but I realized no film has ever won the Best Feature at the Annies and Best Animated Feature at the BAFTA and lost the Oscar. Klaus won everything it was nominated for at the Annies. And only two BAFTA winners ever lost the Oscar (The Lego Movie and Kubo). Klaus has momentum, and there’s a sense of “does a fourth installment really deserve it? Let’s give it to something original”, I think.)

Best Documentary Feature
Will win: American Factory
Could win: For Sama... or Honeyland?
Want to win: For Sama
(For Sama might win this one, tbh. It’s more heartbreaking, and won the BAFTA. But American Factory is the only one primarily in English, it’s from the Obamas’ production company and it’s well put together. Also For Sama is one of two Syrian war-films, so it might split the votes there with The Cave.)

*** *** *** *** *** ***

And, for fun, the shorts:

Best Animated Short: Hair Love
(Kitbull has the animals and that’s usually a winning concept, but Hair Love has more heart I think.)

Best Documentary Short: Learning to Skateboard in a War Zone (If You’re a Girl)
(Just look at that title. Irresistible. And it’s the best of the bunch, too.)

Best Live-Action Short: The Neighbors’ Window
(Brotherhood seems to be the favorite here, but I think TNW has a more compelling and complete story arc/dramaturgy and that usually is what wins.)

--- Double Post Merged, Feb 10, 2020, Original Post Date: Feb 10, 2020 ---

Thankfully the ceremony is actually being aired on public TV in Sweden this year, and not exclusively through a newspaper'a streaming service like preceding years. Haven't got an impression of the experts yet but hopefully they'll be better than the snobby critics of the last couple of years.