Awards Oscars Contest 2020

[Riku]

Thank you all for participating in this event! This was a record year of participants and I'm glad about that! Thanks for the production and marketing team of Joker for such an excellent poster to use as banner material to lure curious people in!

But now for the most important part - winners!


On shared 3rd place (16 points) - @xi0 and @FaustXIII. Congratulations on good effort!

On shared 2nd place (18 points) - the formidable film lover @Eigengrau and none other than the mysterious legend himself @George Monkey. Again so close! Maybe next year is the year of this DiCaprio of MH. Congratulations for both for the extremely even and valiant fight for the throne.

*drumroll*

And on 1st place (18 points) - with the tie-breaker advantage from the Big 5, the many time nominee and second time winner -
Congratulations to my Swedish-dupe account @Organizized

Spoiler: All points and votes by participants

Disclaimer: I did the counting in a very tired state. If you spot any mistakes, let me know! The badge will be awarded later this month.

 

[Riku]

I just submitted myself as well:

Spoiler: My guesses

Best Picture:
- My bet: 1917 or Once Upon
- Who deserves it: I think most likely Parasite

Best OG Screenplay:
-My bet: Once Upon or 1917. Knives Out as Black Horse candidate.
-Who deserves it: Most likely Parasite or Knives Out. Maybe Marriage Story.

Best Adapted Screenplay:
- My bet: Joker or The Irishman
- Who deserves it: Little Women or Jojo Rabbit

Best Visual Effects:
- My bet: The Irishman or Lion King
- Who deserves it: 1917 or Avengers

Best Sound Mixing:
- My bet: 1917 or Ford v Ferrari
- Who deserves it: The Lighthouse

Best Sound Editing:
- My bet: 1917 or Ford v Ferrari
- Who deserves it: The Lighthouse

Best Production Design:
- My bet: Once Upon or The Irishman
- Who deserves it: The Lighthouse

Best Original Song:
- My bet: John Lennon
- Who deserves it: May favorite is Harriet's Stand out, but none of them really get me.

Best Score
- My bet: Joker or 1917
- Who deserves it: Joker or Little Women. All are pretty good though.

Best Make-up and Hairstyling:
-My bet: Joker or Maleficent
- Who deserves it: All the nominees

Best International:
- My bet: Parasite
- Who deserves it: Parasite

Best Film Editing:
-My bet: I initially though Ford v Ferrari, but Baby Driver didn't win, even though it did almost the same thing with editing. Leaning towards Irishman or Joker.
- Who deserves it: I dunno. Maybe Parasite or Joker.

Best Documentary:
- My bet: American Factory or Honeyland. Leaning towards Honeyland, because it got also the best international nod.
- Who derves it: All of them. Documentaries are important.

Best Director:
-My bet: Sam Mendes. Black Horse Quentin Tarantino.
- Who deserves it: Bong Joon Ho

Best Costume Design:
- My bet: Joker or Little Women
- Who deserves it: Little Women

Best Cinematography:
- My bet: 1917 or Joker
- Who deserves it: The Lighthouse. Not mad though if Roger Deakins gets it again. I could marry that man. Joker was also amazingly lit. Light? Lighten? I dunno what the word is, but great use of lamps, filters, flags, mist and natural light.

Best Animated Film:
- My bet: Toy Story
- Who deserve it: Klaus, I lost my Body or Missing Link. I love the HtTYD-franchise though. So pretty much everything else than Toy Story 4.

Best Actress in Supporting Role
-My bet: Laura Dern or Scarlett Johansonn
- Who desrves it: Laura Dern. Curious about Kathy Bates' performance, because that nomination came so out of blue.

Best Actor in Supporting role:
- My bet: Brad Pitt or Tom Hanks
- Who deserves it: Willem Dafoe. Hopkins or Hanks I feel like. I don't think Pitt's performance was anything special. He was just hot.

Best Lead Actress:
- My bet: Renee Zellweger
- Who deserves it: Renee Zellweger

Best Lead Actor:
- My bet: Joaquin Phoenix.
- Who deserves it: Robert Pattinson. Joaquin Phoenix. DiCaprio to lesser amount.

 

[Organizized]

Spoiler: My guesses

Best Original Screenplay
Will win: Once Upon or Parasite
Could win: Parasite or Once Upon
Should win: Parasite


Best Adapted Screenplay
Will win: Little Women or Jojo Rabbit
Could win: The Irishman
Should win: Jojo Rabbit


Best Visual Effects
Will win: 1917
Could win: The Irishman or Avengers: Endgame
Should win: Avengers: Endgame or 1917


Best Sound Mixing
Will win: 1917 or Ford v Ferrari
Could win: Ford v Ferrari or 1917
Should win: One of the above


Best Sound Editing
Will win: 1917 or Ford v Ferrari
Could win: Ford v Ferrari or 1917
Should win: One of the above


Best Score
Will win: Hildur Guðnadóttir (Joker)
Could win: Thomas Newman (1917), maybe?
Should win: Either of the above deserves it.


Best Song
Will win: I'm Gonna Love Me Again (Rocketman)
Could win: Stand Up (Harriet) if voters wanna make a statement.
Should win: I guess the Elton song, though when it runs in the credits it kinda pales in comparison to the classics preceding it. Still it's a good song and it ties into the message of the film well.


Best Costume Design
Will win: Little Women
Could win: Jojo Rabbit
Should win: Jojo Rabbit


Best Hair/Make-up
Will win: Bombshell
Could win: Joker
Should win: Of the ones I’ve seen (ie not Bombshell), Judy


Best Production Design
Will win: OUATI...H
Could win: 1917 or maybe Parasite
Should win: Parasite


Best Documentary
Will win: American Factory or For Sama
Could win: I think it’s one of those two.
Should win: I like what Ust said. All of them, because docs are so important.


Best Editing
Will win: Ford v Ferrari
Could win: Parasite, with The Irishman as long-shot
Should win: Parasite


Best Animated Feature
Will win: Toy Story 4 --- EDIT: or Klaus
Could win: Klaus actually has a very good chance after the BAFTA win and Annies sweep. I'm almost switching my vote to it tbh.
Should win: Klaus or I Lost My Body (I’d be fine with Missing Link too I guess but it’s not the Laika film that deserves it)


Best International Feature Film
Will win: Parasite
Could win: Pain and Glory maybe stands a sliver of a chance?
Should win: Parasite


Best Supporting Actor
Will win: Brad Pitt
Could win: He's locked.
Should win: Hanks gave the best performance imo and should win if we go by that (which we should, really). But Pitt "deserves" an acting Oscar by now, if not necessarily for this performance, so I'm kinda fine with him winning.


Best Actor
Will win: Joaquin Phoenix
Could win: Nuh-uh.
Should win: Joaquin Phoenix or DiCaprio


Best Supporting Actress
Will win: Laura Dern (Marriage Story)
Could win: ScarJo has a shot, but I doubt it.
Should win: Scarlett Johansson (Jojo Rabbit)


Best Actress
Will win: Renee Zellweger
Could win: Nope.
Should win: Renee Zellweger


Best Cinematography
Will win: Roger Deakins (1917)
Could win: Any other is unlikely.
Should win: Jarin Blaschke (The Lighthouse)
Deakins is a master but I was utterly stunned by the cinematography of The Lighthouse, and the film deserved several nominations so if it were up to me it'd win this only one it got.


Best Director
Will win: Sam Mendes (1917)
Could win: Bong Joon-Ho
Should win: Bong Joon-Ho (Parasite)


Best Picture
Will win: 1917… or Parasite?
Could win: Parasite and 1917 is almost tied odds-wise for the win in my book.. slight chance still for Once Upon... (though it's gotten less likely over time)
Should win: Parasite

Definitely the toughest one. Initially I thought OUTIH would be an easy choice here but following the award season, statistics are against it. Instead I think it's down to 1917 or Parasite. Parasite is the only one with an Editing nod, but 1917 is "unedited" so that may not mean much. OUTIH is definitely the most polarizing among common viewers, many finding it slow and boring, so I think Parasite and 1917 will be 1 and 2 on most voters ballots… Parasite has incredible popularity and momentum amongst the guilds so far, so it might just become the first International film to win this. And I sure HOPE SO!

Intentionally vague on some points because @Brandish hasn't submitted his list yet.

I did pretty poorly last year though so wouldn't advise anyone to copy my answers...

 

[Brandish μ]

Idk if I'll be about to participate. I haven't seen The Lighthouse, 1917, Parasite etc. I've still got some days left to watch movies.

 

[Riku]

Ustegius' Stat Teasers Part 4: Out of the 38 nominated films, according to MH users majority, 10 different films will go home as a winner.

 

[Organizized]

Ugh... can I submit a third time without my Finnish twin beginning to hate me?

--- Double Post Merged, Feb 2, 2020, Original Post Date: Feb 2, 2020 ---

Seriously, the longer this awards season goes on, the more I’m genuinely starting to think - and HOPE - that Parasite could make Best Picture history. It just won the WGA big prize as well (with Jojo snatching the Adapted category - RIP Gerwig). I just have to put my stats-trust aside and take the step and predict it as winner... I mean if I’m gonna be wrong, might as well be wrong about a film I think deserved it more.

 

[Josef]

We can submit more than once, wut?

1917 and Parasite are gaining momentum it seems, as awards season wraps up and we are going into the Oscars. Can there be a TIE for Best Picture?

 

[Organizized]

Yeah sorry @Ustegius but I'm gonna be changing my votes again. This Oscar race is messing with me.

 

[Riku]

We can submit more than once, wut?

1917 and Parasite are gaining momentum it seems, as awards season wraps up and we are going into the Oscars. Can there be a TIE for Best Picture?

You can, but only the last one counts.

Yeah sorry @Ustegius but I'm gonna be changing my votes again. This Oscar race is messing with me.

No worries!

 

[Organizized]

Going for broke and changing three of my guesses in the Big Six categories (and a couple of others as well). And they're risky changes, too (in some I may as well flip a coin), but I'm going with gut feeling and heart over statistics and brain. I'll just have to kick myself when I lose because of this.

 

[Evil3ye]

Aren't we supposed to vote that poll thing? I did, so do I have a counting vote now or no?

 

[Organizized]

Yes you do. But the first one I sent in had a bunch of blanks for some reason, and the guesses on the second one I wasn't very happy with now that all the other awards ceremonies are over with. So I'm sending in a third one, and that's the one which will count.

--- Double Post Merged, Feb 3, 2020, Original Post Date: Feb 3, 2020 ---

Right now I have a good feeling about pretty much all my picks except the Best Picture (changed it to Parasite but I still think 1917 has the statistics in its favor and is, historically, more likely to win. But ny heart is with Parasite. And if Parasite's not winning BP, I also now have high hopes for it beating Tarantino in Best Original Screenplay.

--- Double Post Merged, Feb 3, 2020 ---

Crap, I was gonna change my Animated Feature pick too but picked TS4 again just by reflex.

 

[Riku]

Aren't we supposed to vote that poll thing? I did, so do I have a counting vote now or no?

Orgz already said it, but yup. You are already in. You can make poll multiple times, but only the last one counts.

I prefer it this way, because Google does all the bookkeeping for me. PM vote would be such a hassle.

 

[xi0]

Green Book winning Best Picture is a fucking joke.

Uhhh, wait. Who should have won instead then?

 

[Riku]

Uhhh, wait. Who should have won instead then?

Roma or The Favorite imho.

 

[xi0]

Roma or The Favorite imho.

Well, it's not like I saw everything nominated that year but I thought Green Book was fantastic. Perhaps those two were better films but not sure I would categorize Green Book winning instead as a "fucking joke".

 

[Eigengrau]

Well, it's not like I saw everything nominated that year but I thought Green Book was fantastic. Perhaps those two were better films but not sure I would categorize Green Book winning instead as a "fucking joke".

I guess the main problem with Green Book is the fact that it's pure Oscar bait... but the way Best Picture is decided could've had something to do with it winning best picture.

I have yet to submit my picks /)'0'(\

 

[xi0]

I guess the main problem with Green Book is the fact that it's pure Oscar bait... but the way Best Picture is decided could've had something to do with it winning best picture.

I have yet to submit my picks /)'0'(\

Oscar bait in what sense though? Sure it was a period drama and might have been released when it was deliberately, but the director was hardly some renowned director for this kind of subject matter.

 

[Eigengrau]

Oscar bait in what sense though? Sure it was a period drama and might have been released when it was deliberately, but the director was hardly some renowned director for this kind of subject matter.

For what it's worth, I haven't seen the film, but have read extensively about it and how people feel about it on both sides. Mortensen and Ali are super talented, but the issue is with the racial themes that make it "bait" for the audiences, almost as if they want to guilt trip the white people into voting for it.

But, the bigger issue at hand is somewhat illustrated here, having the "white guy save the day" multiple times...

There were better, more deserving films, but I can see them not wanting to award Roma with both Picture and Foreign wins and The Favourite might've been to weird and explicit for others.

Nonetheless, theme-wise I'd say Green Book is text-book (no pun intended) Oscar bait.

It can be well acted, and well directed, but definitely not deserving of best picture, but that's just my opinion of course.

It's also not the film's fault - although they might've tried to capitalize on it - that nowadays everyone seems to be pandering and adhering to the whole "let's not make it OscarsSoWhite again", it almost feels like they're handing out these prizes because of the subject matter so they can seem inclusive and woke.

I'm not trying to take anything away from the craft of the film and the talent involved, but that's just the current reality, however unfortunate it may be.

 

[xi0]

For what it's worth, I haven't seen the film, but have read extensively about it and how people feel about it on both sides. Mortensen and Ali are super talented, but the issue is with the racial themes that make it "bait" for the audiences, almost as if they want to guilt trip the white people into voting for it.

But, the bigger issue at hand is somewhat illustrated here, having the "white guy save the day" multiple times...

The performances were indeed great. The movie probably isn't winning the awards it does without Ali and Mortensen. I guess I tend to look at the term as more pejorative than how it's sometimes used. After watching it I didn't really have a cynical thought about it in my mind honestly. Which I guess is somewhat surprising...

I don't really feel like Mortensen's character really fits the bill of the white savior trope, but I get why people bring it up. I mean, he's literally a bouncer/bodyguard, so he's hired to protect Ali's character. And it's a biographical film...so... If anything, the writing goes out of their way to show him as a bit of an uncultured oaf.

It's also not the film's fault - although they might've tried to capitalize on it - that nowadays everyone seems to be pandering and adhering to the whole "let's not make it OscarsSoWhite again", it almost feels like they're handing out these prizes because of the subject matter so they can seem inclusive and woke.

I'm not trying to take anything away from the craft of the film and the talent involved, but that's just the current reality, however unfortunate it may be.

Yeah I don't really think it's the film's fault at all if that's the case. I didn't really feel like this is something that was drowning in it's own wokeness so to speak. It dealt with issues of race and sexuality delicately enough, but never in an eye-rolling manner to me.

 

[Organizized]

While I also preferred Roma and The Favourite at the time, I've accepted that Green Book got the big prize.

I HAVEN'T accepted that it won Best OG Screenplay over The Favourite. Unforgivable!!