What I mean is right now its at volume what 19? Right? With I think 25 million sales more or less right?
So when I calculated this numbers it was idk, like maybe around 2-3 weeks ago, but I think the same numbers apply, because I calculated how much each volume should have sold before fiscal year for it to beat OP's oricon record: and it was around 2.5ish million per volume, which 2-3 weeks ago I thought there's no way this thing becomes a 2.5 million seller... At least not by fiscal year.
Anyway, currently at volume 19 with 25 million in sales in this fiscal year, it will probably release 3 more volumes this fiscal year (May, August, November) too, so each volume would sell an extra 2.5 million: +7.5 million.
25million+7.5million= 32.5 million
So there's "only" 5.5 million more volumes needed to be sold, which obviously would be sold thru backlog sales.
So 19 volumes would need to be sold in this theoretical case. 5.5mill/19= 290,000ish per volume.
So I saw that last week all volumes of KnY have sold 2+million copies, I assume this week most sold an extra 100,000ish so that plus the 290,000 in this hypothetical case is around 2.4 million needed per volume.
So rounded up is 2.5million, but yeah basically around 2.4million-ish in sales for each volume of KnY released this year would do the trick. 2.5million sales are just needed to be on the super duper sure side of things.
I still think demand could probably be met.. at least I hope, lol I love One Piece and don't want its record broken by an overhyped manga. (yeah I'm salty).
Realistically it's very, very, very likely it will happen. But that's not really how sales work.. I mean I don't know the numbers or how close it is to satisfying demand, but when it finally does the backlog will sell less and less every week.
I know there's a new print of volumes coming around end of March I think?
Right now every volume has sold around 2.1 million, so the thing is if the next batch of reprints is around 200k and it sells then it will be at 2.3 million per volume which slightly puts it behind the volume count (I calculated, again my numbers might be wrong but I doubt it... Math is math lol).
IF demand hasn't been met with this new batch of prints and they make another one then KnY will fairly surley beat One Piece (and by a very large margin, as that would mean it being best before mid-year maybe, with the help of volume 20 sales of course).
IF the second thing happens and demand is met Kimetsu would still have a very high chance of dethroning OP's record, but it wouldn't be a walk in the park like in scenario 1.. it would need for the next volumes to sell super good (which ofc they will) and maybe the movie boost or something.
Again all scenarios give KnY the advantage.
But when you say that KnY sold 25m in 3 months and a half it makes you look like you expect for KnY to sell around what? 80m this year? That's not really how sales work, it will at some point reach a peak in sales and then slowly but surely diminish week by week.
Wasn't last week almost 4million in sales and now around 1.7million?
For all we know last week was probably its peak (I know it was a reprint week) so if for example next reprint week it sells noticeably less than the almost 4million week (let's say 2.5million) we will know for almost sure that hype is dying out and demand has been met.
A pattern of weekly sales once demand is met could drop by Idk 50-60% week by week (that's certainly what happens in most mediums like book sales, movie box office, videogames, etc) and it will eventually happen, Kimetsu No Yaiba isn't an exception to the rule of supply and demand, the question is just when.
So in this example once demand is met.
Week1: 1.5mill (This week)
Week2: 1.0mill
Week3: 500k
Week4: 2mill (Reprint week, end of march I think?) 300k from previous backlog + 1.7mill "new backlog reprints" sales (each volume selling around 100k copies).
Week6: 1.3mill
Week7: 700k
Week8: 350k
Week9: 200k (Demand was met in Week 6 and sales are sligthly going down week by week)
Week10: 2mill (Early May, volume 20 release, volume 20 sells 1.8mill backlog 200k)
In this particular example KnY would have sold 9.55 million in the second half of the first mid half part of the year, totaling 34.5 million, needing around 3.5+ extra million which would be easily done by more backlog sales and volumes 21 and 22.
So yeah, this is the "best case" scenario for it to not beat One Piece, and it still looks like a 95% certainty that it will lol.
This kinda reminds me of Ring Fit Adventure and how demand was never met lol.
Big tl,Dr:
I'm almost sure it will beat One Piece but if demand is met then it's gonna be a long race, not a short sprint to the finish line.
and maybe, just maybe KnY could end up being just shy of beating OP.
Look at sales for everything, once demand is met sales go down 50%-70% week by week.
, atleast most werent carried by their animation to beat the #1 king of shonen
