It's
2,459 people, thank you.. If you are gonna round it up, why not round it up to 2,500 lol?
Just kidding, I will give you that, it seems like a small sample.. But turns out with even a small sample like that you can determine the results are accurate (I explain this at the end of the post, so please keep reading.)
And for those 100 series that remain steady there are 100s or maybe even 1000s that are gonna get canceled due to low sales, not saying that every sale is being eaten up by Kimetsu lol, just saying that for every success there's like 5 "failures".
Cancellations are a thing,
go check out survivor bias. We tend to see only the popular things, but what about manga that's not published by the big publishers? We will probably never ever hear of the manga that get cancelled in the first volume.
In the website link I provided which is the association of book publishers of Japan the number is 3,489 publishers.. Just to put things into perspective, but as I said I doubt niche or unknown series get any sales "eaten" by Kimetsu or any other manga, a niche title will get their sales from their devoted fans but the same cannot be said by more mainstream titles..
Again,
I repeat I'm not saying Kimetsu cannibalizes sales from these unknown manga, I just wanted to point out survivor bias since you brought up that there are 100s of series thriving, my counterpoint being that there are other 100s being cancelled (nothing to do with Kimetsu! Same as Kimetsu has nothing to do with the 100 series surviving).
MHA, TPN and HQ: They reached their peak most likely, I never specifically said anything about Kimetsu cannibalizing their sales, I think Kimetsu is eating a very, very small percentage of a lot of titles, that's what I consider cannibalizing, let's say Kimetsu "cannibalized" a very small percentage (say 1%-2%) of these mangas' sales.
I think you think I think Kimetsu is the sole reason these mangas are selling less, no, it's not, but it most certainly have "stolen" some of their volume buyers, of that I'm sure.
when all the others around it in WSJ alone are increasing?
They haven't reached their peak.
Why is BC stagnating and not going up or down? Why is JK going up? Why is CSM going up?
I don't really check BC sales, but I'd think it would slowly go down (I think it probably already reached its sales peak, I might be wrong on this one though, who knows). JK and CSM haven't reached their peak.
And this is just WSJ. Why is Kingdom still going so strong?
Popular series that probably already reached its peak, but has a steady fanbase and with its new season might get new readers, also you told me yourself it has a segment in a live tv show which gave it a boost.
Anyway, all these questions you asked me are pretty easy to answer for anyone that has been following this thread for some time. Jump series' sales patterns is pretty easy to see, it usually goes:
-Series starts.
-Series survives 9 weeks, so it continues.
-It consolidates a fanbase.
-It gets an anime.
-Anime starts, hopefully manga gets a boost in sales.
-Anime brings some new readers.
-Anime either finishes or continues (long running), the manga still continues but usually the manga will lose popularity after its anime ends (probably 1-2 years after this happens).
In a nutshell most series will reach their peak sales per volume by their 4th-5th year (this is indeed demonstrated by how Slam Dunk volume 21 was a record breaker IIRC, record broken by One Piece's volume 24, and now Kimetsu's volume 19 -and probably the upcoming volume 20- will also show us how the 4th year of serialization is a very stong indication of a series' peak). Again, obviously there will be exceptions to the rule, but you are free to check how most series get their most printed volumes around 3rd to 4th year of serialization (Talking Jump series here, mostly).
This is no coincidence since the first year is usually the "survival" year, the second year is the "consolidation", the third year (For most titles when their anime starts) is when the popularity starts rising, and the fourth year is around the time anime watchers
jump the bandwagon to buy manga volumes (pun intended lol).
That's the usual for most series, I'd say 95% of manga in JUMP follow this pattern, but there are exceptions like One Piece who had a peak in its 10th year, or Kingdom as you said. But we can agree these are exceptions, not the rule.
Again, I never said it was a "Cannibalizing effect" just "cannibalizing" which really is a term in economics, but again, you just made it sound like I think Kimetsu is eating the entirety of the sales of every manga that has lost sales. Which I totally don't, Kimetsu as I said I think might be "stealing" a very modest sum of sales, If I were to put it into a number maybe I think it's "stealing 1-2% of most shonen manga sales, I think that's a realistic number of people that stopped buying X or Y series to buy Kimetsu, the hot onew property,
do you disagree that 1-2% of readers of some shonen manga decided to buy Kimetsu over other titles they buy??
I'm gonna end this post with that question and also:
Did you not read the source I provided? The source that explicitly said that 37% of surveyed people (Also, the surveyed people were from 300 different parts of Japan, if you don't trust me you can check the study it was made by Asashi Shinbun, or check the link I provided, it's in chapter 4) only spent 1,000 yen or less in books per month? I'm not just coming up with random numbers, the survey literally says that 37% of asked people do that (The majority btw, since 13% don't spend money at all buying books, so 50% of people in Japan buy 2 manga volumes per month, or maybe only one).
Anyway, just a final question, and if you want just answer this one:
Let's assume that this survey represented the entirety of Japan (I know it doesn't, but for this exercise let's just assume it does and anyway, as I said this is the most official source I could come up with, I don't think there's anything better than this)..
then if this as true, what would you say about my argument of Kimetsu no Yaiba "cannibalizing" sales from other manga?
Because let me tell you something I have not mentioned, the sample size of the study 2,459 people (Not 2,000 like you said lol) is a pretty good sample size to determine what a country of 120'000,000 people do, within a margin of error of course.
Yes, the phrase of "Please don't use the low sample size as a counter-argument" in my last post was kind of a trap if you wanna call it that,
You can check this article that explains it.
Or you can even use a sample size calculator.
So basically to get a 95% confidence level of your answers being 2% apart from what most of the population of Japan (120'000,000) would say, you need a sample size of 2,401.
This means that if the surveyed people (Which is from 300 different points of Japan, across all ages and genders, so yeah it's a good sample, not just some random otaku in Akihabara or bars full of salarymen which would obviously have skewed the results) said something there is a 95% chance that the results are correct within a 2%. In this case, if 37% of Japanese said they only spend 1,000 Yen per month in books, the confidence interval (2%) means that 95% of Japan would answer between 35%-39% that they only spend 1,000 yen in books per month.
If you want to be even more accurate, let's say 99% of confidence level which in this case would need a sample size of 2,663 to get a 2.5 confidence interval. (That would mean that there is 99% certainty of the results being 2.5% apart, in this case 37% of Japanese people, so 37% -2.5%/+2.5%, so 99% that the answer would be 34.5% to 39.5% spend only 1,000 yen nationwide)
Now, I have established that the study is valid,
that the vast majority (Between 35% to 39%) of Japanese people spend only 1,000 Yen per month in books (Which is roughly enough for two tankobon volumes)
Do you still think Kimetsu isn't cannibalizing sales from other manga? Because, I mean at this point.. C'mon just accept it lol.
If most of the people, in which 13% don't buy any books at all and 37% only spend 1,000 Yen
or less (meaning some people might even buy only a volume per month) it's obvious that at some point they stopped buying a particular series to buy another series, this happens all the time, in this particular example being Kimetsu No Yaiba, but it's obviously not the only title that does it, a lot of titles have done so, and will continue to do it in the future.
@yadayada
Lots of resources are finite, I knew people would probably bring our most useful and finite resource which is time as a counter argument to mine, so I'll tell you this, my example still stands, money is still finite, other resources like space in a Japanese apartment (Which don't have lots of extra space, so people need to be selective with how many books they buy), and also you need time to read your manga too, as I said you could buy 60 volumes of manga a month..
That would be what $250 dollars per month, I guess lots of Japanese people cold have that disposable income, I wonder though if they have 60+ hours of free time per month that they would use to read said manga?
I hope you get the point of my answer, please don't reply to this anymore I don't want to continue debating over this lol.
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