Games Mafia Jump 89 - OMO WEEKLY - End Game

[Copy Panda]

 

[Riku]

This was our top voted on end of D1, Samuel, Shad, Brandish, Ustegius.

Considering now the rules do a cointoss to see who is lynched in a tie, mafia would never gamble on luck if odds were bad, like 2/4 mafia for example. So imo at best there is 1 mafia in this group of 4(now 3), otherwise everyone is town. Lack of saving/votes moving should confirm mafia was fine with last second snipers or it just being cointossed.

Even if Brandish is Santa mafia wouldn‘t know or try and save him, so the other 2, Ust and Samuel, would be clear townies? Hmmm. Need to check back on if anyone was voting last second and for who, but I trust Brandish and Sam to not be mafia.

That leaves Ustegius as either the sole mafia here voted too close to phase end for buddies to react or also not a mafia so mafia doesn‘t care to add more votes there, or add more people into the tie.

Good thinking. That actually makes me think, that there might actually not be a single mafia there.

Wouldn't more people being in the tie for random kill be beneficial to the mafia? Less to work on the more random it is. So Asako sus?

--- Double Post Merged, Feb 21, 2021, Original Post Date: Feb 21, 2021 ---

Based on the “save lynch“ mechanic we once had, which had people vote those they don‘t wanna lynch and lowest voted would be lynched, I‘d say people are better at distinguishing 1-3 people they can trust than 1-3 they can distrust, because on average there are a handful trustworthy people that do become a bit obvious in a day or two, while there‘s often too many shady people to single out 1 from 10+. But we‘ll see.

Did it work though? Town win?

 

[Demonspeed]

Togashi is working hard!

 

[GrySun]

That's the same thing though. The highest votes were the top posters, not surprising.

But it is true, that mafia can manipulate the popularity vote, that is why Gry saying that the top voted mangaka are very trusted and shouldn't be suspected is quite sus.

Doubtful, at best they can raise points for their buddies but very unlikely they can decide 1st-3rd place on their own without lots of town help. They should be like 4 people, that cannot vote for themselves so +3 votes they could add, and highest votes had 7.

I‘d personally ask why people made odd votings, like gnut on Hll, and wonder if some confused mafias just voted their 3 friends. We could have some big clues from checking those polls, especially when a mafia is lynched.

 

[Demonspeed]

I feel like that‘s more something for mafia to make use of mid/lategame if enough of them are alive, because that‘s when being unblockable/unlynchable will be more priceless than early, as they can just avoid 1st place guy for a phase.

I don't see why Mafia wouldn't use that advantage early. Perhaps I would avoid that N1 if I were in their shoes, but not the next nights.

 

[GrySun]

The post got deleted by Panda later because time was up, but Mazino wanted to vote Miura-sensei (I didn't use my powers for this I swear).

Interesting to note. So he‘d switch from Shad(townie) to Sam(townie)?

 

[Riku]

Doubtful, at best they can raise points for their buddies but very unlikely they can decide 1st-3rd place on their own without lots of town help. They should be like 4 people, that cannot vote for themselves so +3 votes they could add, and highest votes had 7.

I‘d personally ask why people made odd votings, like gnut on Hll, and wonder if some confused mafias just voted their 3 friends. We could have some big clues from checking those polls, especially when a mafia is lynched.

Well, the winner got 7 votes. The Mafia have 4 (at lest I think) in their disposal. So they could indeed use those to really post one of their own to the top.

 

[GrySun]

Did it work though? Town win

Yes town won, but we didn‘t have that mechanic all game, only on 1 day phase. That 1 dayphase did doublelynch 2 mafias I think as nobody tried to save those 2 iirc.

 

[Demonspeed]

Interesting to note. So he‘d switch from Shad(townie) to Sam(townie)?

That's assuming that Sam is Spy and not Mafia Det who found that Bran was TP.

 

[Brandish μ]

 

[Riku]

Interesting to note. So he‘d switch from Shad(townie) to Sam(townie)?

What? When was Sam confirmed townie?

--- Double Post Merged, Feb 21, 2021, Original Post Date: Feb 21, 2021 ---

Ah, the action investigation yes.

 

[GrySun]

Wouldn't more people being in the tie for random kill be beneficial to the mafia? Less to work on the more random it is. So Asako sus?

Maybe, but still odd how it‘s risky, 1 votelock on any person, even a 1-vote player, would‘ve lynched them immediately right there. Very risky D1 regardless, I‘d think mafia would rather have a player with 3 votes just for that sake but nobody was touching anyone with 2-votes.

Still them voting away from the tied people should ne clear indication no mafias were there, or only few. Asako is either a mafia adding another one just in case someone else adds a mafia to the tie, or she is a townie adding another player she doesn’t trust to the rng pile. Not too conclusive there.

--- Double Post Merged, Feb 21, 2021, Original Post Date: Feb 21, 2021 ---

What? When was Sam confirmed townie?

--- Double Post Merged, Feb 21, 2021, Original Post Date: Feb 21, 2021 ---

Ah, the action investigation yes.

Not confirmed but most likely, given he was in the tie and his claim. I believe him.

 

[Brandish μ]

 

[GrySun]

At this point you should first confirm/deny touching me last night. Whether I press charges for assault is up to me.

 

[Riku]

So you claim it is a setup by Gry and Sam?

 

[Brandish μ]

At this point you should first confirm/deny touching me last night. Whether I press charges for assault is up to me.

 

[GrySun]

So you claim it is a setup by Gry and Sam?

I think he‘s saying Sam is Santa, gave me a gift, then waited for me to comment on it to say he got a Spy result on Brandish that he‘s Santa.

--- Double Post Merged, Feb 21, 2021, Original Post Date: Feb 21, 2021 ---

...yes

 

[Marmalade]

Did you?

 

[Brandish μ]

So you claim it is a setup by Gry and Sam?

 

[GrySun]

Must admit, Sam‘s timing was impeccable, shared it like immediately after seeing my post. But there are explanations, like him not intending to share it until there‘s a reason, then I gave a potential extra worth to his findings so he shares it.

Think the Sam Santa theory is mostly bad because he‘d be both putting himself in spotlight with Spy claim and Brandish wouldn‘t die as Santa after the lynch making it apparent there is a Santa in the game too.