Games Mafia Game 102 - Genswap Impact: End Game

[Copy Panda]

omo! but in fake spanish

Spoiler: Night Actions MG102!

 

[Erinyes]

rom what I remember Evil always claimed having been a Pirate who didn't do anything, right? So the assumption that Bran was the target comes from believing their version of the events. If they were both mafia, Evil would have targeted Cres directly, and would have little to gain from contradicting them if he wasn't planning on antagonizing half the mafia from the get-go. I could also be remembering wrong though.

It's still one of the possibilites that I consider the least likely to have happened since it would have required peak luck and coordination - not to suggest that Bran and Cres wouldn't be capable of it, but their whole exchange felt genuine to me.

Evil was MR, I was mafia det and he swapped with me. he wasnt pirate. the assumption comes from both their versions, and me becoming recruiter. I dont think evil would have recuited Cresc. he clearly mentioned earlier he wanted to swap with Bran, so it makes more sense he wanted to recruit him.

 

[Crescent Jinx]

If you want to speak in secret during the day, you just need to come up with a simple code Since you're both out in the open it would be really simple, too. Masons these days are so lazy =3=

Workaholic

--- Double Post Merged, Jun 19, 2022, Original Post Date: Jun 19, 2022 ---

Looks like I missed all the fun yesterday. From thinking no mafia had swapped to getting two names, roles and night targets right before the end of the day.
Sucks to be Evil or Asako, but at least the game isn't completely broken yet and it's almost back to resembling an actual MG now '3'


"Almost" because I spent last night taking some notes on all the possibilities we are left with, and while we had quite a number of confirmed townies yesterday, in light of today's death reports they're slimmed down considerably.

Might have missed something or jumped to conclusions by overlooking some details, but this is what I came up with:

Spoiler

100% townie on D2:
Sam
shino
Daws
Erin

Likely townie on D2:
James
Shad

^ If the mafia all agreed to target James, that means he's not mafia but could still be TP;
Similarly, Shad was found green by Mafia Det Erin on Priority 2, but there's the possibility that he got Mentor-recruited on P3 by his swapping partner Gry (Mafia Det would show the townie role in that case I think?). 200 IQ move if that's the case. Same could have happened with Marm/Margi.

100% mafia:
Asako

^ Sure, some rogue townie could have swapped with her, but she doesn't exactly look like she's trying today. Though I do love what she's doing. Is it roleplaying, even? x)


Likely among the missing 4 members of the mafia:

1 or 2 are mafia (one is most likely Escort):
Tatsu (would have blocked Sam)
Gry (would have blocked Shad)
Marm - Margi (either one blocked the other or they happened to be paired teammates)

^ If there's a Mentor, then Gry, Marm or Margi could be it.

Between 0 and 3 are mafia:
GB
Lambu
Demon
Vandred '3'

^ It would be a fair assumption to think all four are mafia if someone other than me had made this list. So I won't blame you if you do =3=/
Even though Erin said the mafia who claimed Escort in the pad was going to block their swapping partner, it would be a smart idea to say that when you're not in the swapping list in the first place, as a countermeasure in case someone turned. Which happened, and would seem to be working so far.
If there's a SK, then either James (he could be Mentor too, but he would have taken a wild risk not recruiting Holt, so it's unlikely imo) or one of us four would have to be it.


Neither or both are mafia:
Cres (currently either Mafia Mason or townie)
Brandish (currently either mafia with Cres or townie)

^ The "both are mafia" scenario would have to imply that Evil, the MR, sniped the Mafia Mason Brandish before the swap with teammate Cres, only for them to claim contradictory roles afterwards.
Extremely unlikely as things stand, much more inclined to see both as trustworthy townies.

So to summarize, and assuming the possible Mentor didn't start recruiting on N2, the whole list would look like this:

Daws
Erin
Asako

Could be townie or TP, but not mafia:
James (if TP, as SK)
Shad (if TP, only with Gry being his Mentor)

Could be townie or mafia, but not TP:
Tatsu (if mafia, as Escort)
Cres (unlikely mafia with Brandish)
Brandish (unlikely mafia with Cres)

Could be any three affiliations:
Gry (if mafia, as Escort; if TP, as Shad's Mentor)
Marm
Margi
GB
Lambu
Demon
Vandred '3'


On that note, I don't think there's much to gain by keeping the roles on uncofirmed townies a secret, much less so for non-swappers, so I can say I am also a vanilla townie. And before anyone starts the usual jig, yes my initial hint was obvious bait, since I've long held the idea that townies with a passive role should always bait with it.



If you want to speak in secret during the day, you just need to come up with a simple code Since you're both out in the open it would be really simple, too. Masons these days are so lazy =3=

--- Double Post Merged, Jun 19, 2022, Original Post Date: Jun 19, 2022 ---

Votekill Asako



Yeeeah... I'd think Panda would have had enough with that, considering. Anonymous mafia triple swapping is totally where the 2022 meta is at

All kinds of flaws with this logic

 

[Shad]

@Vandred In this kind of situation should we not ignore Asako as she is 100% mafia.

Instead go for somebody that has high chance of being either mafia or TP, like james.

The SK / Mentor killed a confirmed townie, meaning they don't consider mafia to be a problem since they are in a bad shape, they may continue killing townies only.

Basically I get the feeling we are doing what they believed we will do in their night pad, go for Asako, so it would be good if we could do something else.
The TP is expecting us to get rid of the mafia while he gets rid of us.

Could be townie or TP, but not mafia:
James (if TP, as SK)

James could have been recruited D1 as well no?

Getting the TP would stop the 2 nights kills.

I can say I am also a vanilla townie

If we have another missing kill next night phase, it may mean you have been recruited?

 

[GrySun]

Yeah Vand‘s thoughts are really odd.

James cannot be the SK, he was blocked N1 by Holt almost certainly, yet still Gajeel died. Idk if I buy 6 mafias, Insane Doc and SK.

 

[Shad]

Yeah Vand‘s thoughts are really odd.

James cannot be the SK, he was blocked N1 by Holt almost certainly, yet still Gajeel died. Idk if I buy 6 mafias, Insane Doc and SK.

If blocked N1, it would mean he is SK (Missing Night 1 kill).
Insane Doc could also be Naive Doc and Gajeel was killed by the rookie since the rookie seem to be looking for safe kills (today they went for shinobi).

 

[Crescent Jinx]

Getting the TP would stop the 2 nights kills.

The enemy of my enemy is my friend. Mafia also has very large numbers.

 

[Vandred]

Evil was MR, I was mafia det and he swapped with me. he wasnt pirate. the assumption comes from both their versions, and me becoming recruiter. I dont think evil would have recuited Cresc. he clearly mentioned earlier he wanted to swap with Bran, so it makes more sense he wanted to recruit him.

I definitely missed that then. I only remember him being on the list with Gajeel before you.
You becoming recruiter doesn't change anything about whom Evil targeted no? I agree that it makes more sense to follow the both are townies logic, and I'm down for lynching pretty much anyone else in the non-confirmed list before them, but if it's not a 100% confirmation I'm not going to consider it as such, even if it's a 1% chance.

Workaholic

All kinds of flaws with this logic

Do elaborate =3=

 

[Asako]

ehe~

 

[Vandred]

Yeah Vand‘s thoughts are really odd.

James cannot be the SK, he was blocked N1 by Holt almost certainly, yet still Gajeel died. Idk if I buy 6 mafias, Insane Doc and SK.

It's pretty reasonable that Cres killed Gajeel. Where's our N1 SK kill then?
Bran claims he didn't touch Sam or shino. Where did the extra kill come from?

Not assuming there's an extra killing party is the odd thing to me...

 

[Erinyes]

@Vandred unless i missed some important infos/ hints, why do you think Son is 100% townie ?

 

[Vandred]

@Vandred In this kind of situation should we not ignore Asako as she is 100% mafia.

Instead go for somebody that has high chance of being either mafia or TP, like james.

The SK / Mentor killed a confirmed townie, meaning they don't consider mafia to be a problem since they are in a bad shape, they may continue killing townies only.

Basically I get the feeling we are doing what they believed we will do in their night pad, go for Asako, so it would be good if we could do something else.
The TP is expecting us to get rid of the mafia while he gets rid of us.

If you're okay with leaving the mafia with zero casualties, then sure. That means 5 members with quite a number of power roles, from what we know.
Rookie, Escort, Mafia Det or Burden are all pretty good roles to take out. Whereas we don't have a very clear target for who could be TP imo.

Who would be your potential candidates in that case?

If we have another missing kill next night phase, it may mean you have been recruited?

Assuming I were Sleeper, that could certainly be a possibility.

 

[Crescent Jinx]

I definitely missed that then. I only remember him being on the list with Gajeel before you.
You becoming recruiter doesn't change anything about whom Evil targeted no? I agree that it makes more sense to follow the both are townies logic, and I'm down for lynching pretty much anyone else in the non-confirmed list before them, but if it's not a 100% confirmation I'm not going to consider it as such, even if it's a 1% chance.

Do elaborate =3=

I definitely missed that then. I only remember him being on the list with Gajeel before you.
You becoming recruiter doesn't change anything about whom Evil targeted no? I agree that it makes more sense to follow the both are townies logic, and I'm down for lynching pretty much anyone else in the non-confirmed list before them, but if it's not a 100% confirmation I'm not going to consider it as such, even if it's a 1% chance.

Do elaborate =3=

 

[Vandred]

@Vandred unless i missed some important infos/ hints, why do you think Son is 100% townie ?

He said to have swapped with Sam, was consistent with his claim and didn't rat out Sam for being a Mafia Member, meaning both must have been townies. But as I said I could have missed some of the finer details with the whole triple-swapping business

--- Double Post Merged, Jun 19, 2022, Original Post Date: Jun 19, 2022 ---

 

[SonOfDaws]

ehe~

Lmao what is this game plan. I guess I'll just get this out the way at this point

Votekill Asako

Today's a busy day, but I'll provide more in-depth thoughts on the other characters in town in a bit.

 

[Erinyes]

Also i bring that again, tatsu claimed BP, she said she failed swaping with sam. she unlikely was blocked, could be simply coin toss, but the claim itself is weird, given there's no assassin, strongman or janitor in mafia team.

again:
- 1 rookie (with escort, doc i think or was it another det ?, and i dont remember the 3rd option)
- 1 escort
- 2 Mafia dets
- 1 burden
- I dont remember the last


also given the number of mafia dets, i assume it was probably to check on secondary roles too. ( i dont remember tho if mafia det gets secondary roles too, i think he does)

 

[Asako]

 

[SonOfDaws]

Out here trying to capture the hearts of the town with those poké ball eyes

 

[GrySun]

If blocked N1, it would mean he is SK (Missing Night 1 kill).
Insane Doc could also be Naive Doc and Gajeel was killed by the rookie since the rookie seem to be looking for safe kills (today they went for shinobi).

They submitted James for the kill, so mafia didn‘t kill Gajeel. Don‘t forget GB also blocked someone(seemingly Lambu?) making Lambu just as likely a SK.

We still don‘t know Doc sanity, it is weird.

 

[Crescent Jinx]

 

[GrySun]

I don‘t believe Vand‘s Vanilla claim.