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SleipnirX

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I'm glad France and Germany didn't elect extreme right winged parties. Everyone has their own opinions and there are those that believe in the right. Nothing wrong but when the party's platform is putting the country back rather than forward in human rights that becomes a problem. I think politics should go to how it was originally intended: learning from everyone and their views. There are extremists on each side but extremists don't make great politicians. Their policies may sound appealing but to whom? People who are a certain ethnicity and gender? Like the burqueini ban in France, it puts women's rights back by telling them how to dress. Let's face it, the world is global and has immigration. Insteading of banning or viewing others as different people should work together on how to improve everyone's lives with no favourites.
Absolutely it’s a good thing, but the extreme left is just as bad ultimately, and far more pervasive, and people getting fed up with being slapped down/ socially ostracised for saying things which are perfectly reasonable ultimately - like in GB that immigration leading to a population growth of a million extra people every three years is unsustainable - is what leads to perfectly ordinary, reasonable people to become exasperated and end up voting for the hard line right they usually would not vote for...

But that is not the case in germany. Nonvoters were a big block, yes, but there were double as many people who votes others parties before who then voted AfD (majorly, in this order, CDU, others, SPD and Leftists).

So, what you assume is not the case. The ppl who vote AfD are not hating 'overly liberal selfhating crap', they voted for leftists before to a large extent, or voted the CDU whose line usually is 'We are a really great country and should be pleased about that'.
Germany ain't england or the US.
German guilt over the past will only last out so far before it eventually succumbs to the same social self-preservation as anywhere else - how many attacks were there on asylum centres last year? The areas hardest hit were the areas with the highest afd vote, if the people of these regions keep feeling their plight is being ignored, then it will simply continue to build in momentum. What I’m saying is we need to restore some sort of political equilibrium before that happens or it’s going to be very bad for everybody!

I’ll be fascinated to see how quickly the German mood on the EU turns sour once you get lumped with the biggest bill to pick up Britain’s enormous yearly contribution, paying through the nose to keep those French farmers up to theirs in wine isn’t going to be a vote winner, I can tell you...
 

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Absolutely it’s a good thing, but the extreme left is just as bad ultimately, and far more pervasive, and people getting fed up with being slapped down/ socially ostracised for saying things which are perfectly reasonable ultimately - like in GB that immigration leading to a population growth of a million extra people every three years is unsustainable - is what leads to perfectly ordinary, reasonable people to become exasperated and end up voting for the hard line right they usually would not vote for...


German guilt over the past will only last out so far before it eventually succumbs to the same social self-preservation as anywhere else - how many attacks were there on asylum centres last year? The areas hardest hit were the areas with the highest afd vote, if the people of these regions keep feeling their plight is being ignored, then it will simply continue to build in momentum. What I’m saying is we need to restore some sort of political equilibrium before that happens or it’s going to be very bad for everybody!

I’ll be fascinated to see how quickly the German mood on the EU turns sour once you get lumped with the biggest bill to pick up Britain’s enormous yearly contribution, paying through the nose to keep those French farmers up to theirs in wine isn’t going to be a vote winner, I can tell you...
In order for economies to grow there needs to be an increase in jobs; thus more people to fill them. The baby boomer generation is slowly retiring and those jobs need to be filled and Generation X is too small. South Korea's economy used to be the equivalent to Mexico but in recent years their exports and immigration rose and so did their economy, quite dramatically. Globalization is difficult for developed countries because compared to the room to grow from developing isn't as huge. However, in order to complete developed nations, who have low-birth rates, need immigrants to keep and create more jobs.

One of my friends actually immigrated to the UK from Canada. I think she enjoys it and it seems she is doing well, if not better. There are a large amount going into all of Europe but I think that is more of a global issue than the UK or EU. For every deny entry there is a back door somewhere. However, if Europe voted for right-winged leaders there would be a greater migration problem because say Germany didn't vote Merkel, those refugees would go to other countries in fear of deportation, etc. It's happening in Canada because refugees from the US fear Trump and now we have thousands entering the borders. One can't argue left-winged policies attract migration when the right will do the same.
 

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German guilt over the past will only last out so far before it eventually succumbs to the same social self-preservation as anywhere else - how many attacks were there on asylum centres last year? The areas hardest hit were the areas with the highest afd vote, if the people of these regions keep feeling their plight is being ignored, then it will simply continue to build in momentum. What I’m saying is we need to restore some sort of political equilibrium before that happens or it’s going to be very bad for everybody!
There is no 'german guilt' tho. That is a thing often brought up but that basically plays no role in the average life of any german.
it is just a rather neat excuse to blame the government off if you are a rightwinger.

The area's who voted for AfD are usually the areas that haven't had any significant migration.
What you are saying is based on completely false assumptions.

I’ll be fascinated to see how quickly the German mood on the EU turns sour once you get lumped with the biggest bill to pick up Britain’s enormous yearly contribution, paying through the nose to keep those French farmers up to theirs in wine isn’t going to be a vote winner, I can tell you...
Not like anyone will notice because it will not play any role for the german taxpayer.
Atm we are diminishing debt because there is leftover money every year. We could always stop doing that to pay for other stuff.
The taxpayer is not going to notice if he is not supposed to do so.
Furthermore, most germans understand that the EU is highly beneficial to germany.
 

SleipnirX

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In order for economies to grow there needs to be an increase in jobs; thus more people to fill them. The baby boomer generation is slowly retiring and those jobs need to be filled and Generation X is too small. South Korea's economy used to be the equivalent to Mexico but in recent years their exports and immigration rose and so did their economy, quite dramatically. Globalization is difficult for developed countries because compared to the room to grow from developing isn't as huge. However, in order to complete developed nations, who have low-birth rates, need immigrants to keep and create more jobs.

One of my friends actually immigrated to the UK from Canada. I think she enjoys it and it seems she is doing well, if not better. There are a large amount going into all of Europe but I think that is more of a global issue than the UK or EU. For every deny entry there is a back door somewhere. However, if Europe voted for right-winged leaders there would be a greater migration problem because say Germany didn't vote Merkel, those refugees would go to other countries in fear of deportation, etc. It's happening in Canada because refugees from the US fear Trump and now we have thousands entering the borders. One can't argue left-winged policies attract migration when the right will do the same.
I have to re-stress I’m really not anti immigration, I just think it needs to be at a much lower level to fit in with britain’s particular geographical circumstances... we’re already the most densely populated major country in Europe, north western and south eastern England in particular are among the most densely populated regions of the planet! The thing is, ultimately immigration is only a sticking plaster solution to a structural issue - regaining replacement level fertility to stabilise the population is what will ultimately lead to a stable economy, having to, in effect ‘import’ workers to fill these roles from abroad has disadvantageous effects on the country of origin as much as they benefit the country they move to, and ultimately the draw of moving to traditionally developed areas is weakening putting us in a very precarious circumstance.

I think you mean far right leaders as opposed to right wing, many European countries do have centre-right to middle-right governments currently, Trump is full of bombastic rhetoric, but really he’s not actually that right wing in the grand scheme of things, he’s just reasserting basic principles that have been absent as the perceived political centre ground has been shifting to the left over the last couple of decades. The idea that people don’t have a cast-iron right to enter another country, and that selective discrimination can be deployed for maximum effectiveness with minimal disruption to everyone isn’t all that radical, it’s the norm, we’ve just moved away from it and forgotten that it is normal not ‘extreme’ in recent times... I think people have gotten too used to a globalised world where they’ve more or less had free rein to go where they want, and are now panicking/ overreacting because there’s been a bit of a self-correction caused by the distorting effect this has had on western societies, and the concern it’s caused to social conservatives and the lower paid echelons of society. In particular, I think the previous mantra of integration being a key part of moving to a new country has broken down too much, we’ve got a significant number of people who speak no English in parts of the UK, and it’s putting an extra cost burden on taxpayers and causing social divides/ segregation. I don’t think anyone would expect people to completely abandon their heritage when moving to a new country, but there’s certainly a baseline of integration people should meet to conserve a cohesive society.

There is no 'german guilt' tho. That is a thing often brought up but that basically plays no role in the average life of any german.
it is just a rather neat excuse to blame the government off if you are a rightwinger.

The area's who voted for AfD are usually the areas that haven't had any significant migration.
What you are saying is based on completely false assumptions.



Not like anyone will notice because it will not play any role for the german taxpayer.
Atm we are diminishing debt because there is leftover money every year. We could always stop doing that to pay for other stuff.
The taxpayer is not going to notice if he is not supposed to do so.
Furthermore, most germans understand that the EU is highly beneficial to germany.
Right, sorry to take this discussion a bit meta, but I’m sure you think I’m just trying to be a sort of jingoistic troll here, which isn’t the case. Generally I’d consider myself to be a pragmatic centrist with a slight conservative leaning view on social policy. The thing is, what’s perceived by people as a whole to be ‘the centre ground’ for politics has really shifted to a skewed position of overly-deregulated free market capitalism, and overly socially liberal policies.

Being a social conservative, to me, means you reject radical change, but accept gradual, sensible evolution of societal values. So an example of the latter would be gay marriage - it’s slowly evolved to be more accepted that people can be lesbian, gay, bisexual etc, and allowing equal rights to marry is something that, whilst controversial in terms of basically twisting the arms of religious groups who do continue to see it as wrong, is now generally supported by the population as a whole, and most people are happy. Ok, so an example of the former would be something that doesn’t gradually change over time, but a small group of radical liberals are trying to foist on society overnight - at the moment, as it happens, there’s the whole gender fluidity argument which has sprung up more or less overnight (certainly in GB). There’s huge pressure from groups to suddenly completely upheave everything that’s already settled about gender roles, public toilets, clothing and school uniforms, etc etc - it’s getting people worked up, unnecessarily. A more even-keeled, gradual approach would be to slowly bring some of these ideas into the mainstream and see how people react. Eventually people will probably come to understand, rather than taking a knee-jerk position if opposing it. That’s it really, you keep what’s good about society and gradually come round to new thinking without major disruption.

So to link this back to the discussion about Merkel and Migrants, she’s suddenly allowed in over a million, predominantly young male, refugees/economic migrants, with a very different cultural outlook to that of German society as a whole. Raping young girls and boys and openly groping women/ calling them ‘whores’ for not completely covering their bodies etc - it’s had a really disruptive impact on German society and undoubtedly tainted the views of people in Germany against helping refugees - at least on the scale that Merkel tried and failed to do. Hence the ballooning number of retaliatory attacks on migrants/ migrant centres. And this is also where it links back to what you say about German guilt not being felt by most ordinary Germans - that’s probably true, but where it matters is the political class, and undoubtedly Merkel was driven by a desire to show an open/ welcoming view of her country to her peers. That’s where the ‘guilt’ still lingers, and that’s where it plays the biggest role in shaping how the country operates. You’ll notice every other country in Europe basically looked on in horror at what she was doing, whether openly or more discretely.

Certainly the EU is beneficial to Germany, it’s just that it also comes at a price. While you’re busy paying down your debt, the rest of the Eurozone is busy piling theirs up, and as you’re effectively the lender of last resort and the ultimate underwriter of all that debt, which I don’t think German taxpayers actually fully comprehend, your own economy can be as healthy as you like, if Spain or Italy or France defaults, it’ll completely rip your economy a new one. You’ll be expected to chip in and prop up the country, even though it’ll be too much for even the Bundestag’s deep pockets to cover, just to minimise the damage/ fallout to your own economy - don’t expect fiscal prudence from these countries either, you and the Netherlands are possibly the single two significantly buoyant economies in the whole monetary union, and the Netherlands economy is a rounding error on the continent’s spreadsheet. If you’re happy to be taken advantage of in exchange for beneficial trade arrangements, I guess that’s fine. Certainly Britain has always been semi detached from the EU, really us joining in the first place rather than continuing to focus on developing the commonwealth into a trading network was such a mistake, I just hope it’s not too late to implement that strategy, certainly we have the advantage of having the same system of [common] law, language and historic national and interpersonal links - it’s such a natural fit when a preferential trading block with a bit of pomp and pageantry was all the empire ever was anyway. I guess the whole ‘recreating rome’ obsession is Germany’s own answer to that sort of thinking.
 

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I have to re-stress I’m really not anti immigration, I just think it needs to be at a much lower level to fit in with britain’s particular geographical circumstances... we’re already the most densely populated major country in Europe, north western and south eastern England in particular are among the most densely populated regions of the planet! The thing is, ultimately immigration is only a sticking plaster solution to a structural issue - regaining replacement level fertility to stabilise the population is what will ultimately lead to a stable economy, having to, in effect ‘import’ workers to fill these roles from abroad has disadvantageous effects on the country of origin as much as they benefit the country they move to, and ultimately the draw of moving to traditionally developed areas is weakening putting us in a very precarious circumstance.

I think you mean far right leaders as opposed to right wing, many European countries do have centre-right to middle-right governments currently, Trump is full of bombastic rhetoric, but really he’s not actually that right wing in the grand scheme of things, he’s just reasserting basic principles that have been absent as the perceived political centre ground has been shifting to the left over the last couple of decades. The idea that people don’t have a cast-iron right to enter another country, and that selective discrimination can be deployed for maximum effectiveness with minimal disruption to everyone isn’t all that radical, it’s the norm, we’ve just moved away from it and forgotten that it is normal not ‘extreme’ in recent times... I think people have gotten too used to a globalised world where they’ve more or less had free rein to go where they want, and are now panicking/ overreacting because there’s been a bit of a self-correction caused by the distorting effect this has had on western societies, and the concern it’s caused to social conservatives and the lower paid echelons of society. In particular, I think the previous mantra of integration being a key part of moving to a new country has broken down too much, we’ve got a significant number of people who speak no English in parts of the UK, and it’s putting an extra cost burden on taxpayers and causing social divides/ segregation. I don’t think anyone would expect people to completely abandon their heritage when moving to a new country, but there’s certainly a baseline of integration people should meet to conserve a cohesive society.



Right, sorry to take this discussion a bit meta, but I’m sure you think I’m just trying to be a sort of jingoistic troll here, which isn’t the case. Generally I’d consider myself to be a pragmatic centrist with a slight conservative leaning view on social policy. The thing is, what’s perceived by people as a whole to be ‘the centre ground’ for politics has really shifted to a skewed position of overly-deregulated free market capitalism, and overly socially liberal policies.

Being a social conservative, to me, means you reject radical change, but accept gradual, sensible evolution of societal values. So an example of the latter would be gay marriage - it’s slowly evolved to be more accepted that people can be lesbian, gay, bisexual etc, and allowing equal rights to marry is something that, whilst controversial in terms of basically twisting the arms of religious groups who do continue to see it as wrong, is now generally supported by the population as a whole, and most people are happy. Ok, so an example of the former would be something that doesn’t gradually change over time, but a small group of radical liberals are trying to foist on society overnight - at the moment, as it happens, there’s the whole gender fluidity argument which has sprung up more or less overnight (certainly in GB). There’s huge pressure from groups to suddenly completely upheave everything that’s already settled about gender roles, public toilets, clothing and school uniforms, etc etc - it’s getting people worked up, unnecessarily. A more even-keeled, gradual approach would be to slowly bring some of these ideas into the mainstream and see how people react. Eventually people will probably come to understand, rather than taking a knee-jerk position if opposing it. That’s it really, you keep what’s good about society and gradually come round to new thinking without major disruption.

So to link this back to the discussion about Merkel and Migrants, she’s suddenly allowed in over a million, predominantly young male, refugees/economic migrants, with a very different cultural outlook to that of German society as a whole. Raping young girls and boys and openly groping women/ calling them ‘whores’ for not completely covering their bodies etc - it’s had a really disruptive impact on German society and undoubtedly tainted the views of people in Germany against helping refugees - at least on the scale that Merkel tried and failed to do. Hence the ballooning number of retaliatory attacks on migrants/ migrant centres. And this is also where it links back to what you say about German guilt not being felt by most ordinary Germans - that’s probably true, but where it matters is the political class, and undoubtedly Merkel was driven by a desire to show an open/ welcoming view of her country to her peers. That’s where the ‘guilt’ still lingers, and that’s where it plays the biggest role in shaping how the country operates. You’ll notice every other country in Europe basically looked on in horror at what she was doing, whether openly or more discretely.

Certainly the EU is beneficial to Germany, it’s just that it also comes at a price. While you’re busy paying down your debt, the rest of the Eurozone is busy piling theirs up, and as you’re effectively the lender of last resort and the ultimate underwriter of all that debt, which I don’t think German taxpayers actually fully comprehend, your own economy can be as healthy as you like, if Spain or Italy or France defaults, it’ll completely rip your economy a new one. You’ll be expected to chip in and prop up the country, even though it’ll be too much for even the Bundestag’s deep pockets to cover, just to minimise the damage/ fallout to your own economy - don’t expect fiscal prudence from these countries either, you and the Netherlands are possibly the single two significantly buoyant economies in the whole monetary union, and the Netherlands economy is a rounding error on the continent’s spreadsheet. If you’re happy to be taken advantage of in exchange for beneficial trade arrangements, I guess that’s fine. Certainly Britain has always been semi detached from the EU, really us joining in the first place rather than continuing to focus on developing the commonwealth into a trading network was such a mistake, I just hope it’s not too late to implement that strategy, certainly we have the advantage of having the same system of [common] law, language and historic national and interpersonal links - it’s such a natural fit when a preferential trading block with a bit of pomp and pageantry was all the empire ever was anyway. I guess the whole ‘recreating rome’ obsession is Germany’s own answer to that sort of thinking.
I don't think it's completely 'guilt' that made Germany bring a million refugees, it's also empathy because Syria is really effed up and it's the citizens that suffer. It's hard to help a country when the government is corrupt and supporting rebels would cause an unnessesary war. Economically, yes they could bring refugees maybe not 800k but some refugees. The problem is word got out and people kept flooding and other countries had migrants they weren't prepared for. If other countries, not just in Europe, picked up the slack and offered asylum, not all would go to Germany. A lot couldn't make it to Germany and settled in other parts. It's like in Canada, we welcomed people and got waves of people but if the US didn't threaten deportation and helped out, there wouldn't be a problem.

I think Merkel should have gotten other countries on board and didn't expect what happened but again, this crisis is a global issue and has been going on for years. What needs to be solved is the corrupt leaders in developing countries and stable growth, which I think we both agree. However, getting a stable government isn't easy and can break treaty laws and with intervention like Iraq didn't help in the long-term.
 

SleipnirX

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I don't think it's completely 'guilt' that made Germany bring a million refugees, it's also empathy because Syria is really effed up and it's the citizens that suffer. It's hard to help a country when the government is corrupt and supporting rebels would cause an unnessesary war. Economically, yes they could bring refugees maybe not 800k but some refugees. The problem is word got out and people kept flooding and other countries had migrants they weren't prepared for. If other countries, not just in Europe, picked up the slack and offered asylum, not all would go to Germany. A lot couldn't make it to Germany and settled in other parts. It's like in Canada, we welcomed people and got waves of people but if the US didn't threaten deportation and helped out, there wouldn't be a problem.

I think Merkel should have gotten other countries on board and didn't expect what happened but again, this crisis is a global issue and has been going on for years. What needs to be solved is the corrupt leaders in developing countries and stable growth, which I think we both agree. However, getting a stable government isn't easy and can break treaty laws and with intervention like Iraq didn't help in the long-term.
The thing is, Germany is still an international diplomacy and foreign policy lightweight. I’m not saying that to try and be insulting, it’s just a fact that compared to the US, Britain or France, they have very limited experience with actually being involved with international crises. The fact that most other countries were trying to avoid what Merkel ultimately fired the starting gun on tells you something - the trouble is within Europe she has a fair amount of influence and has obviously gotten a taste for wielding it, but she doesn’t have the expertise around her to advise against doing stupid things like say come and you’ll be allowed to stay. Cameron to his credit actually had the right idea of spending more money and resources on securing camps in Turkey, Jordan etc and taking in those who were particularly vulnerable (particularly children, for example) after they had been vetted and directly from the camps. That means no risk of terrorists filtering in with refugees and, crucially, no people getting into unseaworthy boats to cross the Mediterranean and ending up drowning. It also means we could sort out places for the people before they arrived, to make sure they’re not in the hellish conditions stuffed into migrant centres that many of these people now are in Germany. The difference in the targeted approach and the crude free for all shows the differing levels of diplomatic ability as experience. Ultimately, Cameron - wrongly - wasn’t listened to because Merkel decided she wanted to take the initiative, but it’s not worked out well, as we warned them it wouldn’t but were ignored. Yes the world just needs sorting out completely, but the more the west does the more it seems to screw up tbh!
--- Double Post Merged, , Original Post Date: ---
https://www.theguardian.com/world/l...pendence-referendum-spain-catalonia-vote-live
I honestly don’t even know what to say about this :( having visited Catalonia on several occasions and made many wonderful friends there it is heartbreaking to think they are being so violently treated :(
 

Reebi

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The thing is, Germany is still an international diplomacy and foreign policy lightweight. I’m not saying that to try and be insulting, it’s just a fact that compared to the US, Britain or France, they have very limited experience with actually being involved with international crises. The fact that most other countries were trying to avoid what Merkel ultimately fired the starting gun on tells you something - the trouble is within Europe she has a fair amount of influence and has obviously gotten a taste for wielding it, but she doesn’t have the expertise around her to advise against doing stupid things like say come and you’ll be allowed to stay. Cameron to his credit actually had the right idea of spending more money and resources on securing camps in Turkey, Jordan etc and taking in those who were particularly vulnerable (particularly children, for example) after they had been vetted and directly from the camps. That means no risk of terrorists filtering in with refugees and, crucially, no people getting into unseaworthy boats to cross the Mediterranean and ending up drowning. It also means we could sort out places for the people before they arrived, to make sure they’re not in the hellish conditions stuffed into migrant centres that many of these people now are in Germany. The difference in the targeted approach and the crude free for all shows the differing levels of diplomatic ability as experience. Ultimately, Cameron - wrongly - wasn’t listened to because Merkel decided she wanted to take the initiative, but it’s not worked out well, as we warned them it wouldn’t but were ignored. Yes the world just needs sorting out completely, but the more the west does the more it seems to screw up tbh!
--- Double Post Merged, , Original Post Date: ---
https://www.theguardian.com/world/l...pendence-referendum-spain-catalonia-vote-live
I honestly don’t even know what to say about this :( having visited Catalonia on several occasions and made many wonderful friends there it is heartbreaking to think they are being so violently treated :(
That's what Canada did they got refugees from camps in Jordan and pre-screened them. Putting efforts into the camps would work but there were just so many refugees. It's not just Syrians that took the voyage there were people from Afghanistan, Iran and Iraq not to mention the Sudan and Somalian ones coming from Africa. Usually the West does tend to screw up more than it helps out.

As to Catalonia, I think they were trying to separate for years. I'm not familiar with the issue but I don't know if it will be good or bad. It would affect trade, which would put them in an economic disadvantage seeing as Spain isn't doing so well. Then again, are they actually better off without Spain or will they hold the same standards just have a different government?
 

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Being a social conservative, to me, means you reject radical change, but accept gradual, sensible evolution of societal values. So an example of the latter would be gay marriage - it’s slowly evolved to be more accepted that people can be lesbian, gay, bisexual etc, and allowing equal rights to marry is something that, whilst controversial in terms of basically twisting the arms of religious groups who do continue to see it as wrong, is now generally supported by the population as a whole, and most people are happy. Ok, so an example of the former would be something that doesn’t gradually change over time, but a small group of radical liberals are trying to foist on society overnight - at the moment, as it happens, there’s the whole gender fluidity argument which has sprung up more or less overnight (certainly in GB). There’s huge pressure from groups to suddenly completely upheave everything that’s already settled about gender roles, public toilets, clothing and school uniforms, etc etc - it’s getting people worked up, unnecessarily. A more even-keeled, gradual approach would be to slowly bring some of these ideas into the mainstream and see how people react. Eventually people will probably come to understand, rather than taking a knee-jerk position if opposing it. That’s it really, you keep what’s good about society and gradually come round to new thinking without major disruption.

It is funny that your example basically is exactly merkel's whole political style.
The gay marriage thing came exactly when even in her own party, there were a lot of people for it and for everyone else it was just some 'it was about time' reaction.

So to link this back to the discussion about Merkel and Migrants, she’s suddenly allowed in over a million, predominantly young male, refugees/economic migrants, with a very different cultural outlook to that of German society as a whole. Raping young girls and boys and openly groping women/ calling them ‘whores’ for not completely covering their bodies etc - it’s had a really disruptive impact on German society and undoubtedly tainted the views of people in Germany against helping refugees - at least on the scale that Merkel tried and failed to do. Hence the ballooning number of retaliatory attacks on migrants/ migrant centres. And this is also where it links back to what you say about German guilt not being felt by most ordinary Germans - that’s probably true, but where it matters is the political class, and undoubtedly Merkel was driven by a desire to show an open/ welcoming view of her country to her peers. That’s where the ‘guilt’ still lingers, and that’s where it plays the biggest role in shaping how the country operates. You’ll notice every other country in Europe basically looked on in horror at what she was doing, whether openly or more discretely.
That is a narrative that didn't really happen.
The migrants you talk about were already in hungary and other parts of europe. The number of them that got PERMANENTLY taken is not outrageously high and comparable with those who got taken during the yugoslawia crisis.
What Merkel prevented was a million of frustrated people being stuck between borders in countries like hungary that couldnt and didnt want to provide for them. It was a very dangerous situation she diffused with that.
The numbers were always exaggerated. So are the stories about rape and groping. Germany didn't become a less secure nation in any significant degree, and the parts of germany who majorly vote for AfD are NOT the parts (usually) that took many migrants or refugees in.

There was basically NO real impact on the german society due to refugees. That is something most ppl don't get. Most germans have never met a refugee in their life, and if they did, probably didn't notice it was one.
'German guilt' has nothing to do with this whatsover.

Merkel is not someone driven by a desire to show off. That is simply not her style. She was driven by the desire to diffuse the highly chaotic and dangerous situation in eastern europe before the first refugees get shot down. And that was a pretty good idea. She always had stabilization in mind.
Germany did not get less stable due to the refugee crisis.

Another important thing: The AfD didn't really touch the refugee topic in their latest voting success.
Because by now, it is a dead horse arround here. The AfD, instead, went back to the roots with anti EU, anti Islam and 'they are taking our jobs' rhetorics.
The bigger reason for less votes for the CDU is, ironically, that the more rightwing CSU (that always was against refugees) got weakened.
Another reason is that the FDP is stronger again. Did you know that the CDU lost more voters to the FDP than to the AfD, even tho the FDP is a more liberal party than the CDU is?

The truth is not that easy, and it has REALLY nothing to do with german guilt and only moderately with the refugee crisis.

Destabilized germany is a myth.
Merkel rushing the decision to take ppl without needing to is a myth.
And most of all, thinking that these topic were the things responsible for the success of the AfD is a myth.
 

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Hi there, I was wondering what are your thoughts on the crazy stuff that's happening in Cataluña and the conflict with Spainish government. I would just like to know how is all this seen from the "outside", another perspective is always interesting.
 
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Hi there, I was wondering what are your thoughts on the crazy stuff that's happening in Cataluña and the conflict with Spainish government. I would just like to know how is all this seen from the "outside", another perspective is always interesting.
The police blocking was ridiculous and saying the referendum was illegal goes against the democratic system.

I don't know what's going on fully so I cannot comment. There has been a lot of tension between the two for hundreds of years. I don't know if separating would be better economically on both ends. However, if most people want to separate (91%) Spain has to respect that.

I know in Canada, Québec wants to separate every so often but it's only less than half. It wouldn't make sense for them because they want to keep the Canadian dollar. It's more of an emotional leave than an economical or logical one (it's sorta in the middle). However, what is going on in Spain seeems completely different.
 

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The idea that the rest of Spain should also be included in a vote for Catalonian independence is a tad silly - it's like people from England, Wales or Northern Ireland having a say in the vote for Scottish independence

Equally silly is a rule in a constitution that states how votes on independence are illegal (separating from Spain would also entail a separation from the Spanish constitution, surely).

That said, rarely do I believe that independence is a good idea.
I don't think that it is good for Scotland and, from the little I understand, I don't believe it is for Catalonia either - it's a good thing that I am not Catalonian, however, as my view on this is really of very little importance.

Even then, what the Spanish government did was incredibly stupid.

Their actions, if anything, have further entrenched those who wanted independence and may even have pushed some of those who previously didn't to the other side.
They have turned themselves into the villains in this whole debacle. I am not sure how many people will take their side in stating that sending in armed police, to break up a vote, which they claim has no power anyway, was a good move.

They need to target some of the main reasons for people wishing independence. I don't really mean those of identity or culture (as those are much harder to sort), but rather those of a financial and economic nature.

It is fun to watch how much the European Union is struggling to decide how to deal with this whole mess - they can't be seen to impose their will on how an independent member state polices their populace. However, through their inaction/silence, they draw criticism for not rebuking the overly strong actions of the Spanish government and police force.

There is very little that they can do or say to not draw criticism.
 
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The idea that the rest of Spain should also be included in a vote for Catalonian independence is a tad silly - it's like people from England, Wales or Northern Ireland having a say in the vote for Scottish independence

Equally silly is a rule in a constitution that states how votes on independence are illegal (separating from Spain would also entail a separation from the Spanish constitution, surely).

That said, rarely do I believe that independence is a good idea.
I don't think that it is good for Scotland and, from the little I understand, I don't believe it is for Catalonia either - it's a good thing that I am not Catalonian, however, as my view on this is really of very little importance.

Even then, what the Spanish government did was incredibly stupid.

Their actions, if anything, have further entrenched those who wanted independence and may even have pushed some of those who previously didn't to the other side.
They have turned themselves into the villains in this whole debacle. I am not sure how many people will take their side in stating that sending in armed police, to break up a vote, which they claim has no power anyway, was a good move.

They need to target some of the main reasons for people wishing independence. I don't really mean those of identity or culture (as those are much harder to sort), but rather those of a financial and economic nature.

It is fun to watch how much the European Union is struggling to decide how to deal with this whole mess - they can't be seen to impose their will on how an independent member state polices their populace. However, through their inaction/silence, they draw criticism for not rebuking the overly strong actions of the Spanish government and police force.

There is very little that they can do or say to not draw criticism.
Geographically it would be odd if Scotland separated same with Quebec. Northern Ireland and the Atlantic Canada would be kinda out of place. For Catalonia, it wouldn't be as bad. It access to the island would be affected.
 

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Geographically it would be odd if Scotland separated same with Quebec. Northern Ireland and the Atlantic Canada would be kinda out of place. For Catalonia, it wouldn't be as bad. It access to the island would be affected.
My point wasn't really about the technical benefits, or lack thereof, of any secession attempts - rather that the argument for all Spaniards having a say in the independence vote was, in my opinion, a rather poor one.
 

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Yeah, the government truly messed everything up with its moves, Rajoy should quit since he has proven to be incapable of taking on this issue and has driven the situation into the most violent possible. The violence of the 1-O should have never happened and now there's no way back.

Still, the so called "referendum" is the greatest lie of our recent history, it shouldn't even have happened in the first place but populism has taken a big sector of the catalan society. @Reebi , I get how it might get sold outside but the catalans did not really vote for independance. The 91% for the "yes" is false, since the voting was outrageously rigged:

- Opaque voting urns that were full of "votes" already (there's even a video of a guy dropping an urn while running into the polling place and it was already full of papers)
- There was no census so anyone could vote, I mean some people voted through the internet using the name "Michael Jackson" "Mickey Mouse" or "Donald Trump" and it counted as a valid vote (I really wish I was kidding but sadly its the truth).
- As there was no census there was no actual number of people pending to vote, so there was people who voted 4 or 5 times and it counted (believe me, its not a joke) As a result the 100,88% of the catalan population registered a vote last Sunday.
- If you think thats crazy enough this one is good, people couldn't vote "No" , when you were in the polling place there were no electoral ballots to vote against the independence, if you said you wanted to vote against it they would ask you to leave.

The truth is its estimated that around 70% of the real catalan population did not attend the referendum, the Generalitat is orchestrating a coup d'etat disguising it as a democratic move. Actually the origin of this whole mess is a massive debt of around 60 billion euros, Andorra and the cups, which actually is the remnants of an organization named ETA but that would need way more explanation.
 

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Yeah, the government truly messed everything up with its moves, Rajoy should quit since he has proven to be incapable of taking on this issue and has driven the situation into the most violent possible. The violence of the 1-O should have never happened and now there's no way back.

Still, the so called "referendum" is the greatest lie of our recent history, it shouldn't even have happened in the first place but populism has taken a big sector of the catalan society. @Reebi , I get how it might get sold outside but the catalans did not really vote for independance. The 91% for the "yes" is false, since the voting was outrageously rigged:

- Opaque voting urns that were full of "votes" already (there's even a video of a guy dropping an urn while running into the polling place and it was already full of papers)
- There was no census so anyone could vote, I mean some people voted through the internet using the name "Michael Jackson" "Mickey Mouse" or "Donald Trump" and it counted as a valid vote (I really wish I was kidding but sadly its the truth).
- As there was no census there was no actual number of people pending to vote, so there was people who voted 4 or 5 times and it counted (believe me, its not a joke) As a result the 100,88% of the catalan population registered a vote last Sunday.
- If you think thats crazy enough this one is good, people couldn't vote "No" , when you were in the polling place there were no electoral ballots to vote against the independence, if you said you wanted to vote against it they would ask you to leave.

The truth is its estimated that around 70% of the real catalan population did not attend the referendum, the Generalitat is orchestrating a coup d'etat disguising it as a democratic move. Actually the origin of this whole mess is a massive debt of around 60 billion euros, Andorra and the cups, which actually is the remnants of an organization named ETA but that would need way more explanation.
I guess they needed government officials working the ballot boxes. However, corruption will always take place it's just how can they make the referendum less corrupt than having over "100% of the population" voting.
 

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I guess they needed government officials working the ballot boxes. However, corruption will always take place it's just how can they make the referendum less corrupt than having over "100% of the population" voting.
Of course, the thing is there was no control nor intention to have it to begin with, they were going to proclaim the Unilateral Declaration of Independence anyway.
What I mean is that there was no real "Referendum" it was all a lie, at this rate Cataluña is going to lose millions in a matter of days as multinationals and banks are leaving their offices/HQ there to avoid the market crash thats already happening.

My point wasn't really about the technical benefits, or lack thereof, of any secession attempts - rather that the argument for all Spaniards having a say in the independence vote was, in my opinion, a rather poor one.
I agree, Catalans should vote alone for their independance, but not like this. The autonomous regions in our country are strongly linked to the main government so the constitution dictates a procedure before allowing such a process, the Generalitat simply ignored this procedure and forced it. Thats why 1-O shouldn't have happened in the first place, all those dirigents should have been arrested a month before this.

It really is sad thats come to this, and now there's a freaking militar operation on the lines, the catalans dont even know they are being used. Still the Spanish government did a deplorable management of the situation, the uproar caused by the dissobedience of the catalan police and the subsequent violence against the population has made a black spot in the history of our country.
 

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Hi there, I was wondering what are your thoughts on the crazy stuff that's happening in Cataluña and the conflict with Spainish government. I would just like to know how is all this seen from the "outside", another perspective is always interesting.
Spanish government definitely didn’t cover itself in glory with how it responded, massively, massively over the top heavy handed action is never going to make you seem like the good guy... I also understand Rajoy has been really inflaming tensions by actually trying to take back powers previously given to Catalonia and that’s what prompted the referendum in the first place. As I say above, I’ve got Catalan friends I’ve made on visits to the region and to be honest when I have spoken to some of them about it in the past, most of them were between ambivalent and in favour of independence. Think there’s a rural-urban split on the issue, but I don’t think the urban areas are as pro union and the rural areas are pro separatist.

I think the problem for Rajoy, and why he acted so harshly is that they just couldn’t say with any certainty that they wouldn’t lose a proper free, fair referendum. It seems to be that potentially a plurality of voters are pro independence, and once you remove the don’t knows/ wouldn’t votes that could translate into a vote for independence. Polls don’t seem to accurately reflect the reality of the situation - if the result is to be believed (granted that’s quite a big if) then about 42% of eligible voters voted, of which over 90% voted for independence, meaning 38% of all voters got in a vote for independence. The big thing though, is that the Spanish government supposedly confiscated about 770,000 votes, if those split the same as the rest, 10-90% in favour of independence, then that would take the total independence vote to over 50% of eligible voters. An absolute majority of Catalans...
 

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Spanish government definitely didn’t cover itself in glory with how it responded, massively, massively over the top heavy handed action is never going to make you seem like the good guy... I also understand Rajoy has been really inflaming tensions by actually trying to take back powers previously given to Catalonia and that’s what prompted the referendum in the first place. As I say above, I’ve got Catalan friends I’ve made on visits to the region and to be honest when I have spoken to some of them about it in the past, most of them were between ambivalent and in favour of independence. Think there’s a rural-urban split on the issue, but I don’t think the urban areas are as pro union and the rural areas are pro separatist.
I agree with the violence part, it was over the top and the responsability resides entirely on Rajoy but not for sending the police to prevent the "referendum", the unforgivable mistake was allowing the Generalitat to perform the 1-O. I dont have absolutely nothing against the catalans deciding their independance, its a right of their own and they should do it, but there's a legal procedure that the Generalitat have not respected.
As for the independence of Cataluña its something thats been going on for a long time, the last time something like this happened was in 1934 and it ended really bad... civil war level of bad. I understand the ideal of independence, but not the way they are using to get it, completely ignoring the institutional rules which leads to the second point.

I think the problem for Rajoy, and why he acted so harshly is that they just couldn’t say with any certainty that they wouldn’t lose a proper free, fair referendum. It seems to be that potentially a plurality of voters are pro independence, and once you remove the don’t knows/ wouldn’t votes that could translate into a vote for independence. Polls don’t seem to accurately reflect the reality of the situation - if the result is to be believed (granted that’s quite a big if) then about 42% of eligible voters voted, of which over 90% voted for independence, meaning 38% of all voters got in a vote for independence. The big thing though, is that the Spanish government supposedly confiscated about 770,000 votes, if those split the same as the rest, 10-90% in favour of independence, then that would take the total independence vote to over 50% of eligible voters. An absolute majority of Catalans...
I do not doubt there's a lot of people who want the independence of Cataluña but if the movement never reached the necessary support from the Catalan population in order to make a parliamentary change it means something, that there's not a clear majority. The people that dont want to separate from Spain must round the 50% or this wouldn't have happened.
As for the so called "Referendum" I explained a couple of posts above why its a farce. You cannot even take seriously those numbers when the electoral procedure was completely directed to obtain the "yes", the people who wanted to say "No" simply stayed in their house because it was not legal (the people that actually went to vote against independence were rejected anyway), there's no way people will accept such a result but the ones in favor of the independence.

The reason behind all this agitation and scam is to avoid debt anyway, Cataluña can't really sustain on its own if they get independence and the Generalitat/Cups know it very well but the Catalans are convinced it could happen due to a strong propaganda for the last 6 years. The reason Im really preoccupied is for the 50% (presumably more) of Catalans that didn't want this and now are trapped in this mess.
The government's passive behaviour towards this matter now could end very bad if the state of emergency is applied to restore the institutional order.

I just hope 1-O is the last strand of violence, but as things are going it could be just the beggining...
 

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I agree with the violence part, it was over the top and the responsability resides entirely on Rajoy but not for sending the police to prevent the "referendum", the unforgivable mistake was allowing the Generalitat to perform the 1-O. I dont have absolutely nothing against the catalans deciding their independance, its a right of their own and they should do it, but there's a legal procedure that the Generalitat have not respected.
As for the independence of Cataluña its something thats been going on for a long time, the last time something like this happened was in 1934 and it ended really bad... civil war level of bad. I understand the ideal of independence, but not the way they are using to get it, completely ignoring the institutional rules which leads to the second point.



I do not doubt there's a lot of people who want the independence of Cataluña but if the movement never reached the necessary support from the Catalan population in order to make a parliamentary change it means something, that there's not a clear majority. The people that dont want to separate from Spain must round the 50% or this wouldn't have happened.
As for the so called "Referendum" I explained a couple of posts above why its a farce. You cannot even take seriously those numbers when the electoral procedure was completely directed to obtain the "yes", the people who wanted to say "No" simply stayed in their house because it was not legal (the people that actually went to vote against independence were rejected anyway), there's no way people will accept such a result but the ones in favor of the independence.

The reason behind all this agitation and scam is to avoid debt anyway, Cataluña can't really sustain on its own if they get independence and the Generalitat/Cups know it very well but the Catalans are convinced it could happen due to a strong propaganda for the last 6 years. The reason Im really preoccupied is for the 50% (presumably more) of Catalans that didn't want this and now are trapped in this mess.
The government's passive behaviour towards this matter now could end very bad if the state of emergency is applied to restore the institutional order.

I just hope 1-O is the last strand of violence, but as things are going it could be just the beggining...
Really what I was trying to get at was you can lay 99% of the blame for the whole situation at Rajoy’s feet - he started being antagonistic and trying to reduce Catalan self government, and of course wouldn’t even talk to them about holding a legal referendum on secession. He’s stirred up the hornets nest and then just ignored their protests - some sort of retaliation was inevitable. There’s a strong core of support for independence among Catalans, whether or not it’s a majority depends on the middle 40% of people who could vote either way; after acting as he did in the years before the referendum, he likely pushed many people towards desire for independence, or at least ambivalence enough to not vote and reduce the threshold for victory from 50% plus one vote down to whatever level, say 40% plus one vote if 20% of all voters abstain. I think that’s what scared him into taking the action he did - there was a very real threat that they could lose a fair referendum which would provide a solid mandate for Catalan secession.
--- Double Post Merged, , Original Post Date: ---
It is funny that your example basically is exactly merkel's whole political style.
The gay marriage thing came exactly when even in her own party, there were a lot of people for it and for everyone else it was just some 'it was about time' reaction.



That is a narrative that didn't really happen.
The migrants you talk about were already in hungary and other parts of europe. The number of them that got PERMANENTLY taken is not outrageously high and comparable with those who got taken during the yugoslawia crisis.
What Merkel prevented was a million of frustrated people being stuck between borders in countries like hungary that couldnt and didnt want to provide for them. It was a very dangerous situation she diffused with that.
The numbers were always exaggerated. So are the stories about rape and groping. Germany didn't become a less secure nation in any significant degree, and the parts of germany who majorly vote for AfD are NOT the parts (usually) that took many migrants or refugees in.

There was basically NO real impact on the german society due to refugees. That is something most ppl don't get. Most germans have never met a refugee in their life, and if they did, probably didn't notice it was one.
'German guilt' has nothing to do with this whatsover.

Merkel is not someone driven by a desire to show off. That is simply not her style. She was driven by the desire to diffuse the highly chaotic and dangerous situation in eastern europe before the first refugees get shot down. And that was a pretty good idea. She always had stabilization in mind.
Germany did not get less stable due to the refugee crisis.

Another important thing: The AfD didn't really touch the refugee topic in their latest voting success.
Because by now, it is a dead horse arround here. The AfD, instead, went back to the roots with anti EU, anti Islam and 'they are taking our jobs' rhetorics.
The bigger reason for less votes for the CDU is, ironically, that the more rightwing CSU (that always was against refugees) got weakened.
Another reason is that the FDP is stronger again. Did you know that the CDU lost more voters to the FDP than to the AfD, even tho the FDP is a more liberal party than the CDU is?

The truth is not that easy, and it has REALLY nothing to do with german guilt and only moderately with the refugee crisis.

Destabilized germany is a myth.
Merkel rushing the decision to take ppl without needing to is a myth.
And most of all, thinking that these topic were the things responsible for the success of the AfD is a myth.
Well yeah, the CDU is a centre right party like the Tories in the UK or the Democrats in the US, it shouldn't be surprising someone who identifies as centre to centre right would overall be in broad agreement with Merkel on most policies. But the thing is, she deviated enormously from a small c conservative approach to the migration thing, it's made even left leaning people and politicians feel a little uncomfortable, let alone other centre right parties in Europe that were watching with open mouths... it goes back to the maintaining of status quo society and allowing gradual evolution thing I mentioned before - this was a giant upheaval.

I know she did backpedal on who would ultimately be allowed to stay one the full scale of the avalanche became apparent, but we'll have to see how many people who fail their claims do ultimately get repatriated. Many don't have/ destroy their passports, so there's no way of making their country of origin accept them back. Some were already in Europe or trying to get in, but the number exploded after she said anyone who came would be allowed to stay.

This article from a left leaning German publication (I understand it's basically the German Guardian) disputes that there's no problems arising from the migrant crisis in Germany:
http://www.spiegel.de/international...l-refugee-policies-have-failed-a-1079455.html
 

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Well yeah, the CDU is a centre right party like the Tories in the UK or the Democrats in the US, it shouldn't be surprising someone who identifies as centre to centre right would overall be in broad agreement with Merkel on most policies. But the thing is, she deviated enormously from a small c conservative approach to the migration thing, it's made even left leaning people and politicians feel a little uncomfortable, let alone other centre right parties in Europe that were watching with open mouths... it goes back to the maintaining of status quo society and allowing gradual evolution thing I mentioned before - this was a giant upheaval.
No. The CDU is like the german republicans, just that the rightwingers are much weaker by now.
Merkel is more on the left side, but is good at being centrist enough to not have her party rebel against her. She could aswell be in the SPD, which would be the german counterpart of the dems.

Merkel never deviated. Her party is split up in a rather small right section and a broader centrist to (to an american or british) left section, which is still centrist for german conditions.
She had broad support from the other left leaning parties except 'die linke', because they are left extremists who, by virtue, cannot be happy with what the government does.
Merkel, initially, had a very broad support for her refugee policy and even by now she is only doing badly for HER OWN STANDARDS, which is still really popular. The people who were upset were mostly upset about the 'how', not the 'what', and the refugees as topic have died down by now.
You do not read too much about them anymore because you can only get so many clicks out of good OR bad stories about them.

I know she did backpedal on who would ultimately be allowed to stay one the full scale of the avalanche became apparent, but we'll have to see how many people who fail their claims do ultimately get repatriated. Many don't have/ destroy their passports, so there's no way of making their country of origin accept them back. Some were already in Europe or trying to get in, but the number exploded after she said anyone who came would be allowed to stay.
Not really a backpedal but rather a 'wait and see'. The number of people that came was comparable to the yuoslawia crisis, and a lot of them are already gone, while more treaties are made to not let people in or throw them out more quickly.
The number did not explode due to Merkel. There were already very many people on the way. There certainly was a temporary spike, but a lot of those got thrown out rather quickly (exspecially when it comes to people from the balkans or northern africa).

The effect of the migration due to asylum, as i mentioned, is not bigger than it was in the yugoslawian crisis. It is not an inherent problem if some people stay, it was the same back then. And obviously, destroying your passport does not make it impossible to throw you out if you have been registered.
This article from a left leaning German publication (I understand it's basically the German Guardian) disputes that there's no problems arising from the migrant crisis in Germany:
http://www.spiegel.de/international...l-refugee-policies-have-failed-a-1079455.html
Der Spiegel is a trustworthy magazine, but what you linked is an opinion piece and older than a year.
It is true that merkel helped to close the routes after the other countries refused to take substantial amounts of refugees.
That is fine by my, because, as the article says, it was the second best choice.
Paradoxically, even when that was happening, people were blaming merkel to 'let people into the country' when there were already more people leaving than coming in.
Merkel's policy now is what her critics wanted: Working with transit countries to diminish the amount of incoming people, paying money to build up refugee centers so it can be decided whether a people has the right for asylum without them having to cross the sea and generally distributing the refugees that are in germany better.
They are still not happy, because they never are.
The thing is: If merkel had not taken those refugees from hungary back then, there was all reason to exspect the situation there escalating to a dangerous level. She did the right thing for Europe.
 
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