American Politics

[Styx]

I do exspect clinton's winning chances to drop to 70% before the election date.

I don't think that this is very likely. Her supporters do not care what she does (or hardly anyone), especially in regard to the email scandal.

 

[shionoro]

I don't think that this is very likely. Her supporters do not care what she does (or hardly anyone), especially in regard to the email scandal.

That is true, clinton is not losing supporters.
But trump is gaining some.
At the moment, 49,5% of the voters intend to vote clinton and 44% wanna vote trump. He mainly gets voters from Johnson at the moment.
However, with that, he might climb one more percent point to 45%, which is definitely in reach if he is lucky and clinton possibly declines to 49% (unlikely, but possibly since she is in decline since the third debate).

Those are not amazing winning chances, but chances nonetheless.

 

[TotalEconomist]

That is true, clinton is not losing supporters.
But trump is gaining some.
At the moment, 49,5% of the voters intend to vote clinton and 44% wanna vote trump. He mainly gets voters from Johnson at the moment.
However, with that, he might climb one more percent point to 45%, which is definitely in reach if he is lucky and clinton possibly declines to 49% (unlikely, but possibly since she is in decline since the third debate).

Those are not amazing winning chances, but chances nonetheless.

It's called tightening, but the phenomenon doesn't necessarily match actual results.

2012 polling made the election seem like a horse race when it wasn't. Obama won the moment Ohio was called and without Florida's clusterfuckery.

Since 2008, projection models like 538 and others have been better looks at the election.

Trump has it much worse than Mittens at this point and with the Narrative of the emails being more about Comey's irresponsible actions, the bombshell is fizzling out.

And truthfully, the average voter doesn't care since most vote based on party affiliation, single issue, and which one looks presidential.

 

[YumaKuga]

I just wanna bring one thing up. Trump has way more supporters then the media says. I see them everywhere I live. I think this FBI investigation coming back out is pretty damming for Clinton. If she becomes president and she is still being investigated, its not good. What I read is she is guilty of espionage and selling US secrets to the highest bidder. All through her non-profit group. If she becomes president-elect, it looks bad to have the FBI on her ass, thats all.

 

[kkck]

I just wanna bring one thing up. Trump has way more supporters then the media says. I see them everywhere I live. I think this FBI investigation coming back out is pretty damming for Clinton. If she becomes president and she is still being investigated, its not good. What I read is she is guilty of espionage and selling US secrets to the highest bidder. All through her non-profit group. If she becomes president-elect, it looks bad to have the FBI on her ass, thats all.

Where did you read such a thing? None of the things the FBI has investigated about her so far even vaguely relate to espionage. Clinton has not even made money from her foundation (unless she has fooled the IRS without leaving a speck of evidence but I guess that would be even less absurd than her literally selling US secrets).

 

[Philia]

I think Trump does have some chances. But the electoral map doesn't look good for him.

Hillary is in a position where she can lose both Florida and Ohio and still win the election. I'd say Trump does have very good chance to win both. However he'd still need to win either Michigan and Wisconsin or North Carolina and Pennsylvania. Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania have voted democrat for the last two decades.Trump does have good chance to win N.Carolina(Except for Obama defeating Romney it has always gone Red). Even with North Carolina Trump will have to win both New Hampshire and Maine. Then he ends up at 273 EC. Slight chance but not impossible.

 

[Onyx Darkmatter]

I don't think Trump would win Michigan, but I can definitely see Trump winning Ohio.
I'm unsure about the rest, but it is a possibility that the tides could turn around for him (then again, it depends on how many people are going out to early voting).

 

[Newkerzy]

CNN's analysis on Comey and the Hatch Act here is pretty comprehensive and understandable:

http://edition.cnn.com/2016/10/31/politics/what-is-the-hatch-act/index.html?ref=yfp

Comey may have not technically violated the Act, but it violates the spirit of the Act. The Act was meant to push federal employees to properly consider any sort of action that can be seen as influencing the election, which, in this case Comey failed to do so. In light of this poor judgement, Comey's intentions at the very least deserves to be called into question. Comey's report shouldn't be discredited, but it deserves to be not seriously considered.

 

[kkck]

Welp, for anyone who thinks he/she can't take more of the bullshit going on or otherwise is into some weird form of masochism, here is a list of stuff trump has done through his campaign. With a hint of comedy!
http://www.cracked.com/blog/a-blow-by-blow-account-trump-campaign-disaster/

 

[TotalEconomist]

So Comey is refusing to cite the Russians in the election meddling case, saying it's too close to the election.

The last few days have been a real mess for Comey.

 

[M3J]

Wouldn't be shocked if Trump wins. Hillary keeps taking losses that make her look bad in front of undecided and apprehensive Hillary supporters. Even if she's not guilty, many people will believe otherwise, And then her camp isn't supporting the indigenous people trying to protect their homeland from pipelines, which wouldn't sit well with the lefts and liberals as well. Makes it more clear that she panders and can't be trusted to do what's best for the country and not for her pocket.

 

[Newkerzy]

If that's not all, one other stupid fiasco that involved Comey was something that shouldn't even have had to happen in the first place. Remember the San Bernadino shooters? The Feds wanted to pry into their phones, but ended up trying to wage war with Apple and their followers (customers, ahem). But the whole debacle could've been avoided in the first place if they just left the phones alone until Apple's tech guys could pick it up.

But nooooo..... They just had to try and crack it themselves and it ended up locking both Apple and the FBI out. What's that saying again? If you don't know what you're doing, then DON'T TRY AND FIX IT!!! In the end, they ended up forking about a million bucks of taxpayer money to a hacker group and still got nothing out of it.

 

[TotalEconomist]

Wouldn't be shocked if Trump wins. Hillary keeps taking losses that make her look bad in front of undecided and apprehensive Hillary supporters. Even if she's not guilty, many people will believe otherwise, And then her camp isn't supporting the indigenous people trying to protect their homeland from pipelines, which wouldn't sit well with the lefts and liberals as well. Makes it more clear that she panders and can't be trusted to do what's best for the country and not for her pocket.

Trump could win yes and has 1/4 shot of doing so, but Clinton support hasn't dropped. Trump is still performing worse than Romney so far.

 

[kkck]

Well, trump has been polling better. Though I am not sure if the FBI had that much of an effect or not, his polling has been improving from about 2 weeks ago.
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo

I am not sure if the FBI thing specifically had a big effect here. Maybe only a little bit considering hillary was moving down. In the end it seems like the trend has been one month for each candidate and that continued now.... but that only means trump will continue to gain in the polls for the next week.

--- Double Post Merged, Oct 31, 2016, Original Post Date: Oct 31, 2016 ---

So Comey is refusing to cite the Russians in the election meddling case, saying it's too close to the election.

The last few days have been a real mess for Comey.

Yeah, I am really confused about this. I am not going to jump the "comey is savotaging hillary" bandwagon yet but I do feel comey owns a fair bit of explanations to put what he has done in context. Normally he shouldn't have to do that but apparently he also shouldn't have done any of the stuff he has done anyways so a little clarity into this clownfest wouldn't hurt.

 

[M3J]

Trump could win yes and has 1/4 shot of doing so, but Clinton support hasn't dropped. Trump is still performing worse than Romney so far.

Sources? I find this hard to believe, and as an ardent Trump protester, this feels too good to believe. I find it hard to believe Hillary hasn't lost any support, and that Trump is still doing that badly. But then again, I honestly wonder if Trump is really that much worse than Hillary, given Hillary's pandering and shadiness... until I read about the violence of Trump supporters.

Despite what anyone says though, I do believe Trump sexually assaulted women. Shame his supporters are too deluded to believe otherwise and deflect to Bill all the time.

 

[kkck]

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/fivethirtyeights-2012-forecast/
Here are the numbers on how romney did against obama. Going by numbers, romney has trump beat for the most part. And going by numbers it makes absolutely no sense that trump does anything but have the worst defeat in republican history. But that is just number, we just need another week to confirm whether the numbers were correct.

--- Double Post Merged, Oct 31, 2016, Original Post Date: Oct 31, 2016 ---

Though it is worth noting that comparing hillary's polling to obama's polling by this stage obama was increasing his lead whereas right now trump is doing increasingly better (while being much behind still).

 

[TotalEconomist]

Sources? I find this hard to believe, and as an ardent Trump protester, this feels too good to believe. I find it hard to believe Hillary hasn't lost any support, and that Trump is still doing that badly. But then again, I honestly wonder if Trump is really that much worse than Hillary, given Hillary's pandering and shadiness... until I read about the violence of Trump supporters.

Despite what anyone says though, I do believe Trump sexually assaulted women. Shame his supporters are too deluded to believe otherwise and deflect to Bill all the time.

I am using Nate Silver's projection model for the 1/4 number and Nate's been pretty good when it comes to projecting the election since 08'.

The reality is that most voters don't vote on the issues as a whole. They either vote because of party affiliation, single issue, or who looks the most presidential.

--- Double Post Merged, Oct 31, 2016, Original Post Date: Oct 31, 2016 ---

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/fivethirtyeights-2012-forecast/
Here are the numbers on how romney did against obama. Going by numbers, romney has trump beat for the most part. And going by numbers it makes absolutely no sense that trump does anything but have the worst defeat in republican history. But that is just number, we just need another week to confirm whether the numbers were correct.

--- Double Post Merged, Oct 31, 2016, Original Post Date: Oct 31, 2016 ---

Though it is worth noting that comparing hillary's polling to obama's polling by this stage obama was increasing his lead whereas right now trump is doing increasingly better (while being much behind still).

Nate has admitted there is more room for uncertainty this than there was in 2012 IIRC.

But by state polling, the only real toss ups this year right now is AZ (lol), IA, OH, and FL. (Ohio is Trump leaning and FL is Clinton leaning). NC, NH, MI, WI, and PA are favored to go Clinton, along with CO and NV.

 

[YumaKuga]

Last I read Trump was leading FL, but now its only +1 in her favor. I can no doubt say she will win NY, NM, CO and California. Oh and OR

What I find weird is this: http://dailycaller.com/2016/10/31/h...nder-fbi-investigation-back-in-january-video/

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/r...nton-foundation-investigation/article/2606035

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/...investigation-james-comey-20161031-story.html


She denies the investigation, yet why do the Feds have a warrant now? And It looked really bad that the DOJ withheld it from them

 

[TotalEconomist]

Last I read Trump was leading FL, but now its only +1 in her favor. I can no doubt say she will win NY, NM, CO and California. Oh and OR

What I find weird is this: http://dailycaller.com/2016/10/31/h...nder-fbi-investigation-back-in-january-video/

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/r...nton-foundation-investigation/article/2606035

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/...investigation-james-comey-20161031-story.html


She denies the investigation, yet why do the Feds have a warrant now? And It looked really bad that the DOJ withheld it from them

Not at all.

Clinton has lead in Florida for most of the election and Trump hasn't lead it since September.

 

[Onyx Darkmatter]

Election is almost a week from today (although Early Election is a good option). The final countdown begins.
Nonetheless, I can only hope that Hillary isn't serious in engaging in a war against Russia, and that this whole "Russia tampering with the elections" is merely a Weapons of Mass Destruction in Iraq story. Either way, I hope to god that either Kaine actually takes Hillary's place, or she gets elected and impeached by Congress. Those are the only things that I can hope for in the next couple of months.