American Politics

[shionoro]

I cannot believe how good it is looking for dems rn due to the easily avoidable mistakes the reps did.

Corona could have been a present. The worldleaders, even those with a bad reaction, did benefit from it if they took it seriously and acted like they were defending the nation. Trump with a mask, telling people to stay safe and saying he is upping the testing and fighing that evil china virus would have given him positive PR he desperately needed. He did the opposite which gave biden a wiiiide opening.

It was easily avoidable to have that many people in the WH catch the virus. They didnt need to be so careless for propaganda reasons. They just did it anyway and now that even threatens the supreme court confirmation, leave alone had a big swing at trump.

Trump is not sane (sanish) anymore too due to the treatment. RN he is doing things that are not just his wacky usual self that panders to his base. Rn he tweets and does things that his base does not like. The choice to claim that the corona aid bill is off the table now hurt him dearly, without any good reason to do it.

The debate too was very misguided. They played down biden so hard that he couldnt run under that bar (because he is in fact not demented, just a little bit old) and then, even if biden would have had a gaffe or two (and he did say a stupid thing or two), Trump overshadowed any of that with his performance.

Then the maskless propaganda show from the hospital that really garnered him some illwill even in the less radical republican circles.....

Since the debate, 538 had Trump winchance slip from 22 to 15. Even more, the republicans' performance around the debate, the supreme court, covid and the election integrity was so bad that their senate chances slipped from 38 to 33 in the same timeframe (tendency is down).
And they will pretty much definitely not win the house and probably even lose some seats there.

Trump's performance is actively hurting these senate chances, too. If the current trend goes on just a little longer, we might see a 5% winchance for Trump on election night and some 80% chance for democrats to pick up the senate.
And if it goes REALLY badly for republicans, they might not succeed with their supreme court pick.

This is all, right now, looking really really good. WE should still not take it for granted tho. 2016, just 20 days before election night, clinton had an 88% winchance and the democrats had a 74% winchance for the senate. Their winchance for the senate declined from 66% to 50% in the timeframe of 5 days, shortly after Comey sent his letter to congress (arguably, that lost the demcrats the whitehouse and the senate, that singular action).
But on the flipsides, unless republicans have something like that at their disposal (which i doubt), i do not see someone running as stable as biden losing a lot of ground at this point. Clinton's pollnumebrs were always fluctuating, but Biden's pollnumbers are as stable as you can possibly get.

 

[M3J]

I think it's cute that you're confident that Trump's doing horribly.

 

[Xeroxed]

Just going to be honest and say that I'm not really seeing what this "piece of wisdom" is that you've noticed or how anything you've said relates to it

Oh dont play coy. You did great! You revealed that the Proud Boys were evil, not because of anything they had done or any quality they might posses, but because they disagrees with you and other leftists opinions. That takes a lot of bravery to admit to yourself and even more to admit to the whole world! But you did not manage to reach the whole way. You missed a vital point. People dont get angry because of a difference in opinion. They get angry because of the emotions that those opinions represent.

If your favorite ice cream flavor is chocolate and another persons favorite flavor is vanilla that would mean nothing to you. Because it does not embodies any emotions. But what if it was central to your being? What if it was emotionally painful to be proven wrong? People are much more controlled by their emotions and instincts than we like to admit and if you have chosen bitterness and despair then another person who have chosen hope and pride would seem evil and insufferable.

I think I have to put on my Biologist hat here again and reveal a dark truth: Humanity was not designed and have not evolved to live in modern society! And we were especially not evolved to deal with social media! Look at the BLM protesters. They live in luxuries that their ancestors could not even imagine! Even the richest kings of europe from a hundred years ago could live as luxurious on many fronts. They ate worse food, had no air conditioning, terrible transportation and no entertainment more complicated than a theater. And even the ramshackle healthcare that the poor are afforded in america is still leagues better than what a king could have a century ago. And we dont even need to look back in time. Literally 90% of earths population would gladly trade places with these protesters if they could. And yet these people are constantly miserable!

The truth is that a human need more than food and entertainment to live. They also need something to strive for and something to excel at. And the need status and to feel that the rest of society appreciates them. Ancient humans struggled every day just to stay alive. And though that might seem miserable it was not so, because by overcoming all the hardship they found pride and satisfaction in themselves. And by being of use to each other the found meaning. They took all the hardship head on. Often they failed, but they learned from every failure and grew better and they survived and passed on their genes. And this behavior is now bread in to our bones. What happens then when you are faced with a society where you never have to struggle and gratification is instant and meaningless? Despair! The children never fail and so they never learn how to conquer their problems. Or even to seek out problems. Only to become useless adults that feel guilty and shameful as they "never amount to anything".

And social media makes it worse. In the past you lived in a village with maybe 150 other people. You could only compare yourself and your success against those other 150. And even so probably only against those you interacted with often that was also of you cohort. Today you compare yourself with photoshopped movie stars and people doing the dumbest thing for fame in reality shows. You compare yourself to everyone's perfect life that they pretend to have on Facebook. And you despair! Because you'll never live up to all that. In the past people had to keep up with the Jones to feel good about themselves and that was hard enough. Today you have to keep up with the Kardashians! See how that works out for you!

------------

Anyway, back to the point. The truth is that the Proud boys never attack or berates anyone that does not attack them. Instead they do something far worse. They show up and celebrate and are happy. They wave their flags, proclaim how glorious their nation is and display how bright they think the future will be. And all of that is absolute poison to leftists who hate themselves and pray that everyone else should fall in to the same kind of despair as themselves. And so they hate and they lie and they berate. Everything to get rid of those who are such a thorn in their side.

 

[shionoro]

I think it's cute that you're confident that Trump's doing horribly.

Why? He has numbers so terrible that they cannot be cheated away. As i said, even if biden only wins the states that he has an 83%+ winchance in right now and NO other state, he is going to win the election no matter what shit pulls because these states have blue governors that can force all the ballots to be counted.

And as i said, the tendency is down for Trump. He is doing worse and worse, the fallout of his latest actions is not even factored in yet.
Unless there is some kind of comey gambit or biden has a stroke in a possible debate 3, I do not see how Trump would recover from this.

There simply is no benghazi for Biden, nor a pizzagate. Even the ukraine thing is about his son, not so much about him.

--- Double Post Merged, Oct 7, 2020, Original Post Date: Oct 7, 2020 ---

Anyway, back to the point. The truth is that the Proud boys never attack or berates anyone that does not attack them. Instead they do something far worse. They show up and celebrate and are happy. They wave their flags, proclaim how glorious their nation is and display how bright they think the future will be. And all of that is absolute poison to leftists who hate themselves and pray that everyone else should fall in to the same kind of despair as themselves. And so they hate and they lie and they berate. Everything to get rid of those who are such a thorn in their side.

That is simply not true, they are on video beating up innocent people for 'being antifa press' because they filmed them with a cellphone.
The proudboys are a violetn fascist group, lets not delude ourselves. They are just relatively sneaky.

 

[M3J]

Anyway, back to the point. The truth is that the Proud boys never attack or berates anyone that does not attack them.

Pls, start reading actual news instead of your biased fiction.

Why? He has numbers so terrible that they cannot be cheated away. As i said, even if biden only wins the states that he has an 83%+ winchance in right now and NO other state, he is going to win the election no matter what shit pulls because these states have blue governors that can force all the ballots to be counted.

And as i said, the tendency is down for Trump. He is doing worse and worse, the fallout of his latest actions is not even factored in yet.
Unless there is some kind of comey gambit or biden has a stroke in a possible debate 3, I do not see how Trump would recover from this.

There simply is no benghazi for Biden, nor a pizzagate. Even the ukraine thing is about his son, not so much about him.
--- Double Post Merged, 19 minutes ago, Original Post Date: 24 minutes ago ---

Republicans will do whatever it takes to win, legally or not. Look at how confusing mail-in voting is for PA voters. There are also still people who don't support Biden or are leaning towards Trump.
Trump has plenty of time to garner support, whether by stuff like stimulus bill or Dems screwing up or being able to credibly blame Dems for something not their fault
Electoral

I mean, Trump has reenergized the right/his supporters just by being maskless and appearing in public, as well as going back to work. People like Tomi Lahren are praising him and making not wearing a mask seem like a political thing AND masculine thing. I don't know how worse Trump is doing, but I doubt he's doing that much worse compared to before.

USPS Worker in NJ Arrested for Allegedly Dumping Mail, Including Election Ballots

A U.S. Postal Service mail carrier from Hudson County, New Jersey, was arrested for discarding mail, including 99 general election ballots sent from the County Board of Elections that were intended to be delivered to West Orange residents, U.S. Attorney Craig Carpenito announced. Nicholas...

www.nbcnewyork.com

Seems like Democrats are more negatively affected by "voter fraud" than the Republicans. Funnily no one on the right has talked about this, but if it was a left being accused, they'd cry.

 

[shionoro]

Republicans will do whatever it takes to win, legally or not. Look at how confusing mail-in voting is for PA voters. There are also still people who don't support Biden or are leaning towards Trump.
Trump has plenty of time to garner support, whether by stuff like stimulus bill or Dems screwing up or being able to credibly blame Dems for something not their fault
Electoral

I mean, Trump has reenergized the right/his supporters just by being maskless and appearing in public, as well as going back to work. People like Tomi Lahren are praising him and making not wearing a mask seem like a political thing AND masculine thing. I don't know how worse Trump is doing, but I doubt he's doing that much worse compared to before.

The voter suppression is already factored in. Trump did not reenergize anyone with that behavior. He is losing ground and he is losing ground quickly. The fact that some of his base are happy to see him 'healthy' again is not a general trend. What Tomi Lahren does is one thing, the fact that he is regularly critisized on fox now is another.

Trump really IS out of time. He cannot stick this to the dems anymore. That was the initial plan, saying evil nancy pelose is at fault. He blocked that path by saying that he put it off the table himself, so that cannot be done anymore.

Trump is doing INSANELY much worse and it is getting worse by the day. In fact, he does so bad. Biden's chance for a landslide win are double as high as trump's chances to win right now. And you cannot cheat yourself out of a landslide win. We are talking about Biden winning the popular vote by 10% or more and gaining states like Ohio or Iowa.

Right now, conservatives are really (and rightfully) afraid. If Harris does well in her debate today, there will not be a third debate and there is no tape showing biden abusing tara reade, i cannot see how he will possibly lose this anymore.

 

[M3J]

What do you base him not reenergizing his supporters on? I"ve seen them react to him with excitement.

Did he explain why he put it off the table?

 

[xi0]

Oh dont play coy. You did great! You revealed that the Proud Boys were evil, not because of anything they had done or any quality they might posses, but because they disagrees with you and other leftists opinions. That takes a lot of bravery to admit to yourself and even more to admit to the whole world! But you did not manage to reach the whole way. You missed a vital point. People dont get angry because of a difference in opinion. They get angry because of the emotions that those opinions represent.

I'm confused, are you sure you're replying to the correct person? Reread my posts and tell me where I offered commentary on the Proud Boys, because I haven't. And again, I'm still lost as to what my description of white supremacy has to do with what you're saying. What I wrote isn't really a leftist take on it either, as it's a pretty accepted definition of the concept. It's in the dictionary.

 

[shionoro]

What do you base him not reenergizing his supporters on? I"ve seen them react to him with excitement.

Did he explain why he put it off the table?

I think he is incapacitated by his meds right now, the move was just insanely bad and i dont think he had a sane reason for it. Every other republican knew it was bad for them.
I am basing my opinion that he didnt energize his base on the fact that more and more americans hate his dealing with the coronavirus and his numbers plummet more and more.

--- Double Post Merged, Oct 8, 2020, Original Post Date: Oct 8, 2020 ---

Both Kamala Harris and Mike Pence are doing this debate really well. Nice change of pace.

Pence has the harder position to defend and Harris is relentless tho. i feel he made a big mistake by keeping on interrupting her. Trump needs female voters to win, his VP interrupting a woman nonstop might turn off even more of them.

 

[M3J]

Tuned in, and within ten seconds of Pence talking I knew he was full of shit. Fact checking even before the debate ftw.

Kamala's holding her own very well.

 

[shionoro]

The smart thing harris does is letting him talk over her and not trying to have the last word, but instead adressing the points of the moderator.

Trump struggle with well educated white women, this is who biden wants to cater at in this debate. Having a guy talk over you nonstop (and over the female moderator) is EXACTLY the picture democrats would want to show, especially if that woman is still not intimidated.

 

[M3J]

Sadly that won't stop the conservative women from voting for Trump

 

[shionoro]

It will stop some of them, and that's enough.

 

[M3J]

Maybe 10-20 at most. Most will just see Pence as too masculine to listen to some woman.

The fly on his hair though. Disgusting, but it detected him being trash.

 

[shionoro]

Maybe 10-20 at most. Most will just see Pence as too masculine to listen to some woman.

The fly on his hair though. Disgusting, but it detected him being trash.

I do not know where this idea is coming from, it is a fact that a lot of suburban white women who voted red in 2016 are now very likely to vote blue.
Biden and harris are doing well with the relevant women, Trump is not (anymore).

 

[hokageji]

It will stop some of them, and that's enough.

it wont... the conservatives and media are already talking as if Pence won, if not, Harris not being the victor. And the left media is talking as if Harris bulldozed Pence, which is an exaggeration....

Harris did fairly better than Tim Kaine, but she has more points against them since the opposition is incumbent... I think it was her best even including her presidential run, but the debate will do nothing to sway the majority.

--- Double Post Merged, Oct 8, 2020, Original Post Date: Oct 8, 2020 ---

Maybe 10-20 at most. Most will just see Pence as too masculine to listen to some woman.

The fly on his hair though. Disgusting, but it detected him being trash.

Monica Lewinsky said it best, "one fly over cuckoo's nest"

 

[shionoro]

it wont... the conservatives and media are already talking as if Pence won, if not, Harris not being the victor. And the left media is talking as if Harris bulldozed Pence, which is an exaggeration....

Harris did fairly better than Tim Kaine, but she has more points against them since the opposition is incumbent... I think it was her best even including her presidential run, but the debate will do nothing to sway the majority.

--- Double Post Merged, Oct 8, 2020, Original Post Date: Oct 8, 2020 ---

Monica Lewinsky said it best, "one fly over cuckoo's nest"

It will not sway a majority, but it appealed to relevant voter groups more than it angered them. It does not matter what trump friendly media say about it, you can poll that. It is not going to make huge numbers in pennsylvania or wisconsin, but it is going to take another change from trump to get these voter groups he desperately needs back. Whether the people who were going to vote trump no matter what liked pence better is not important. What is important was that the people who would likely vote biden but were a little conflicted are less conflicted (or at least not more conflicted) now, as Biden is the frontrunner.

In that regard, Harris won. Her aim was to do no harm and i think she exceeded that bar and created some goodwill.

--- Double Post Merged, Oct 8, 2020 ---

THe polls about who won the debate are out

Politics News | Breaking Political News, Video & Analysis-ABC News

ABC News is your trusted source on political news stories and videos. Get the latest coverage and analysis on everything from the Trump presidency, Senate, House and Supreme Court.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

As usual, VP debates dont change a lot, but Harris succeeded to make the ticket just a little bit more attractive and make relevant voter groups just a little bit more excited and likely to vote.
She also increased her own popularity rating.

Pence didn't so badly with all of that, too. But a little bit worse than Harris did.

 

[M3J]

I do not know where this idea is coming from, it is a fact that a lot of suburban white women who voted red in 2016 are now very likely to vote blue.
Biden and harris are doing well with the relevant women, Trump is not (anymore).

Shame that doesn't apply to women in my town/county.

it wont... the conservatives and media are already talking as if Pence won, if not, Harris not being the victor. And the left media is talking as if Harris bulldozed Pence, which is an exaggeration....

Harris did fairly better than Tim Kaine, but she has more points against them since the opposition is incumbent... I think it was her best even including her presidential run, but the debate will do nothing to sway the majority.

--- Double Post Merged, Oct 8, 2020, Original Post Date: Oct 8, 2020 ---

Monica Lewinsky said it best, "one fly over cuckoo's nest"

Of course they are. Pence is a white republican male, so automatically he wins, and it didn't hurt that he kept talking over Page all the time. Every. Single. Time. Harris did pretty well against Pence though, and Pence was honestly the loser here, while the fly and Harris did better. I'd even say Harris won.

I think Harris was able to sway some towards Biden though?

 

[shionoro]

I think Harris was able to sway some towards Biden though?

Certainly not convinced Trump voters, but the important thing was that Harris made it more likely that someone leaning democrat but not being convinced to vote yet is more likely to vote now.

 

[M3J]

Fuck Trump voters, nothing will sway them away from Trump other than Trump moving left.