American Politics

[Jubei_Kibagami]

Just remove them from swift already.

I'm not sure how bad of an outcome this will be, and I don't mean for the Russians.

Of course Germany is already doing this ^ with NS2.

 

[Sanity Check]

The reality is that US, nato and EU have the resources to engage here. And win handily, barring the nukes flying. They simply don't have the will for it. It is looking increasingly like russia will simply easily take whichever chunks of ukraine it sets to get and the west will simply keep throwing sanctions at putin which he will ignore. Just remove them from swift already.

You're forgetting a few facets of basic history.

Turkey had a choice of american F-35s or russian built S-400 missiles.

Turkey choose russian S-400 missiles over the american built F-35 stealth fighter, despite suffering a big backlash for making that choice.

Note the active protection system on russian tanks which intercept and eliminate incoming warheads:


US tanks like the Abrams have no equivalent defense technology. Its still in testing.

Russia can deploy zircon hypersonic missiles which cannot be intercepted or defended by existing US technology.

Where are america's hypersonic missiles? We have none. We don't even have them in testing.

The sad state of affairs is russia is better equipped and has the USA outgunned in many areas.

edit

Oh.

Don't forget russian super cavitating torpedoes which travel underwater at close to 200 miles per hour.

Those things are ridiculous.

Where are america's super cavitating torpedoes? We have none, of course.

 

[kkck]

There is no universe in which Russia 'reuinifies' with a whole host of well-established countries.

In, what, 20 years he'd be about 2-3% there going by land mass. Maybe less.

And for some reason I can't find any speech where he name-checks any complete country of many that have separated from the former soviet block. As opposed to dealing with ethnic pockets around the periphery of the country. Does he speak of a strong, united Russia as a nationalist? Yes. Does he speak of annexing a dozen entire countries? No.

Then there are curiosities like why he'd befriend the Russian Orthodox Church. Or repatriate the remains of anti-soviet philosopher Ivan Ilyin. Not exactly 'soviet' things in spirit or practice.

Which is why if reunification is his goal he'd need at least another 10 lifetimes (or more), and could be said to be failing miserably at it in the meantime.

I agree, a full reunification of soviet territory is not in the cards. But.... he sure is making his best to get the territory he wants. Also, I don't see a proper nationalist being given pause by a lifetime. Not because he'd transcend his lifetime or any sci fi nonsense. But if you are a nationalist who puts country and its power above all then a goal not being achievable within your lifetime is not really something that stops you. This sounds more like something that would give pause to greedy unprincipled politicians in western countries but not a convinced power hungry nationalist that is playing risk with the world.

But sure, a full reunification is as you say impossible within his and perhaps our lifetime. Since a decent bulk of those territories are actual members of nato and EU unlike ukraine.

--- Double Post Merged, Feb 24, 2022, Original Post Date: Feb 24, 2022 ---

I'm not sure how bad of an outcome this will be, and I don't mean for the Russians.

Of course Germany is already doing this ^ with NS2.

Oh, it'll have ramifications worldwide and to EU business interests. It would immediately tank the russian economy as well. but at some point there has to be something other than money driving politics right?

 

[Jubei_Kibagami]

You do not need to annex dozens of countries if they do you bidding. It is very clear that Putin wants the UDSSR back with a modern coloring.
You could see in Belarus and Kasachstan that you don't need to formally be part of russia to very obviously be part of the russian order.

And nobody should think that Russia does not want Europe to look like that. Ukraine is the first victim of his fascist (and that is what it should be called) movement to shuffle the global order in his favor.

So, to be clear, any country that is friendly with Russia is a de facto neo-soviet state without any autonomy at all?

Golly, I suppose maps the world over need to be redrawn then.

And by this standard I wonder how big the US empire would be lol

And by the way, russians entered the kyiv region now Russian forces enter Ukraine's capital Kyiv | Daily Sabah

Oh No! Not reports of "several helicopters" flying overhead as Russia secures air bases (which they were already doing last night) to prevent a response to Donbas region. How will the people of Kiev survive? *checks live footage of Kiev* Oh, I guess they'll be just fine.

It is imperialist to invade several other states in europe in recent history, whether they wanted to be in nato or not and build up an armada of forces at several borders, even to states that are not in nato. YES!
It is not imperialist if ukraine wants to be in Nato without any Nato troop buildup at any russian border. HOw is russia threatened if it has far, far, far more soldiers at any of its borders than vice versa? tell me.

Somethousand Nato troops in the baltics are a threat russia cries about, obviously, a bazillion troops INSIDE of another country and invading its capital are not.
Obviously, it is mean if ukraine decides to join nato, while belarus joining the csto is fine and dandy, even tho belarus openly tried to destabilize poland by moving refugees there.

YOU said that the west would never accept someone stationing troops near its borders. That is bullshit, Russia does it all the time and Europe rarely complained or did any act of hostility.

What border has Russia been involved in that is not in it's own immediate sphere of influence?

What does that have to do with a NATO encroachment decades in the making that has preceded a Russian response?

--- Double Post Merged, Feb 24, 2022, Original Post Date: Feb 24, 2022 ---

Just checked. The USSR shed 5,300,000 sq kilometers in its collapse.

Donbas is about 52,000 km^2

Crimea 27,000




Oh boy, it looks like the band is getting back together, and soon!

 

[kkck]

You're forgetting a few facets of basic history.

Turkey had a choice of american F-35s or russian built S-400 missiles.

Turkey choose russian S-400 missiles over the american built F-35 stealth fighter, despite suffering a big backlash for making that choice.

Note the active protection system on russian tanks which intercept and eliminate incoming warheads:


US tanks like the Abrams have no equivalent defense technology. Its still in testing.

Russia can deploy zircon hypersonic missiles which cannot be intercepted or defended by existing US technology.

Where are america's hypersonic missiles? We have none. We don't even have them in testing.

The sad state of affairs is russia is better equipped and has the USA outgunned in many areas.

edit

Oh.

Don't forget russian super cavitating torpedoes.

Those things are ridiculous.

Where are america's super cavitating torpedoes? We have none, of course.

Except.... russia's economy has tanked recently and even on good days it's what, 30% larger than mexicos? The issue with a war with russia is not a dozen hypersonic missiles, it's the nukes.

 

[Jubei_Kibagami]

Saying Putin is reuniting the USSR would be like saying the UK is reestablishing the British Empire by securing the Falkland Islands. Only the British empire wasn't predicated on nuclear security and didn't include immediately-neighboring border states on one side of the country.

 

[xi0]

But... who the hell believes there's a 0.1% chance that ukraine is a military threat to russia? or that EU/NATO is a military threat to russia? I don't doubt both the EU and US have screwed over russia before via nato expansion but it's very clear that russia here is the aggressor, ukraine can't exactly defend itself and by all appearances neither NATO, US or EU have the will to militarily defend ukraine. If ukraine can't defend itself and the EU/US/NATO clearly won't AND russia is banking on that... then what legitimate security concerns is russia crying for?

The military threat isn't Ukraine, it's NATO. I'm not arguing who the aggressor is, imperialist expansion is imperialist expansion. It doesn't matter to me if it's Russia or NATO doing it. But if the alternative is losing a buffer state to NATO, then what's the alternative? Especially when there's historical and ethnic ties involved.

The solution here is Biden risking taking the L politically and getting Putin to the negotiation table. Either that or war. Endlessly funding Ukrainian resistance is most likely what will happen, but what is that going to accomplish? Hope Russia bleeds itself dry as an occupying force? How many lives will be lost?

Of course not, but it's easier to overlook that when the US does it because at least optically, they're not as villainous as Putin and Russia seems to most of the west. My only point is the "What about what Russia wants" dog don't hunt because you can't really empathize with his reasoning.

And I get it isn't as simple as "Ukraine good, Russia bad." It's just it looks super fucking bad for Putin. It looks like he's the bad guy here. And that matters when it comes to garnering support.

Support from who though? He was never going to be supported in his actions in Europe, every country is either NATO or "neutral". NATO itself exists because of Russia, and it's existence and threat of expansion is antagonistic.

 

[Sanity Check]

Except.... russia's economy has tanked recently and even on good days it's what, 30% larger than mexicos? The issue with a war with russia is not a dozen hypersonic missiles, it's the nukes.

I don't know if russia's economy tanked.

Their stock market has taken a hit. But it doesn't necessarily trickle down to economic fundamentals.

Russia has spent many years hardening their economy to sanctions, SWIFT disconnect and similar scenarios.

The united states spends more on defense, but russia definitely has the superior technology and the better weapons.

Russia's nukes are also better than america's.

 

[kkck]

The military threat isn't Ukraine, it's NATO. I'm not arguing who the aggressor is, imperialist expansion is imperialist expansion. It doesn't matter to me if it's Russia or NATO doing it. But if the alternative is losing a buffer state to NATO, then what's the alternative? Especially when there's historical and ethnic ties involved.

The solution here is Biden taking the L politically and getting Putin to the negotiation table. Either that or war. Endlessly funding Ukrainian resistance is most likely what will happen, but what is that going to accomplish? Hope Russia bleeds itself dry as an occupying force? How many lives will be lost?

Welp, but things got to a point where it's basically one empire or the other. And russia is definitely the aggressor here, there is no defensive aspect to what is going here.

What L can biden even take? If there's a path here for it then I am all for it but I am not sure what biden can do. Any path forward should also include russia not chunking away at allied countries in the future.

 

[Jubei_Kibagami]

Except.... russia's economy has tanked recently and even on good days it's what, 30% larger than mexicos? The issue with a war with russia is not a dozen hypersonic missiles, it's the nukes.

Russia is proving to be swift (pun) and decisively deadly, of course that is in destabilized, smaller countries like Syria and Ukraine.

It's too early to tell how dealing with a modernized army that has been built with an ethos of handling much larger, more expensive armies would work. It's one reason why Russia knew it couldn't compete in creation of ACC groups, so instead went with hunters subs and hypersonic missiles. Talking heads are split as to whether Russia has the tech that would make an ACC a sitting duck, and a hugely expensive target. The same goes for GTAM/SAM warfare. Not that our brass would ever admit we are at risk in either setting. We might have super-expensive boats and planes that can be downed with relatively-inexpensive missiles, which Russia has put most of its efforts in pursuing and pushing the limits of that tech.

That's just conventional warfare, and as you mention doesn't even scratch the surface of the danger of fucking with the only other country in the world with a nuclear arsenal worth talking about.

--- Double Post Merged, Feb 24, 2022, Original Post Date: Feb 24, 2022 ---

Oh, it'll have ramifications worldwide and to EU business interests. It would immediately tank the russian economy as well. but at some point there has to be something other than money driving politics right?

Russia can survive off of SWIFT. We can't tolerate the damage it would create if an alternative would go online. The blow-back would be catastrophic and much worse for us. Russia has basically been operating under sanctions for so long they are prepared for whatever else can be thrown their way. China alone can weather Russia, and this pushes the two even closer.

The demand for USD (by taking Russia off of SWIFT) would go down, down, down, but the supply would stay the same. You do the math.

And russia is definitely the aggressor here, there is no defensive aspect to what is going here.

Tell that to Donesk/Lugansk.

If Russia is such the bully here, why is the overwhelming majority of displaced civilians taking their newly-minted passports and fleeing to.... Russia? Of course the entire population won't be happy with Russian's involvement in the East Ukraine, but in the areas in question, the majority are.

Imagine Germany invading Poland and the Polish people almost exclusively flee to Germany (the aggressor). It makes zero sense unless there is more to the breakaway regions than is being reported.

 

[ninjabot]

Support from who though? He was never going to be supported in his actions in Europe, every country is either NATO or neutral. NATO itself exists because of Russia, and it's existence and threat of expansion is antagonistic.

Me and other normies or "political hobbyists". Support might've been the wrong word. Maybe empathy or understanding would've been a better choice? I'm just saying it isn't hard for the media to run with the "Russia bad, Ukraine good" angle and so it'll be harder to push for Biden to resort to appeasement or war because of optics.

Why no appeasement? Because Putin will push for more and we'll look weak.
Why no war? Because Americans shouldn't be put in danger thanks to us meddling in foreign affairs.

 

[Sanity Check]

Russia can survive off of SWIFT. We can't tolerate the damage it would create if an alternative would go online. The blow-back would be catastrophic and much worse for us. Russia has basically been operating under sanctions for so long they are prepared for whatever else can be thrown their way. China alone can weather Russia, and this pushes the two even closer.

The demand for USD (by taking Russia off of SWIFT) would go down, down, down, but the supply would stay the same. You do the math.

I remember reading news articles proposing to disconnect russia from the SWIFT global banking network 5 to 10 years ago.

Further sanctions might also incentivize russia to embrace bitcoin and alternative currencies as north korea has.

 

[Jubei_Kibagami]

I remember reading news articles proposing to disconnect russia from the SWIFT global banking network 5 to 10 years ago.

Further sanctions might also incentivize russia to embrace bitcoin and alternative currencies as north korea has.

Yes, it's been in the works for some time. EAEU and BRICS are blocs that have already created trading agreements that bypass the dollar altogether.

Russia can't fight the world alone militarily. China can't fight the world alone economically. But... those two countries pushed further into a union pose a real risk in every meaningful way. To be able to oppose the US/NATO and the USD.

Russia has all the energy that China would like to gobble up, as well as nukes and advanced mil tech. China has everything else. Both have land mass and resources, even if China consumes more due to population, which of course would man an army large enough to be a severe threat. China is also working on advanced missiles, expanding its navy, and its own nuclear arsenal. They of course want to go along to get along as it helps them amass funds from trade, but seem to be fine with Russia's involvement at its border.

China can't float an international reserve Renminbi, but they are hoarding gold (as is Russia), and working on a digital solution that will include important trading partners. When energy is bought without USD the whole thing collapses for us.

--- Double Post Merged, Feb 24, 2022, Original Post Date: Feb 24, 2022 ---

Comparison of China and United States Military Strengths (2026)

Comparison of two world military powers in side-by-side format.

www.globalfirepower.com

Comparison of United States and Russia Military Strengths (2026)

Comparison of two world military powers in side-by-side format.

www.globalfirepower.com

It's interesting to see how the two (Russia and China) as allies would fare militarily. I guess for a fare comparison you'd have to include EU/NATO allies on the US side, but still.

The 'baddies' in this scenario are prepared for an asymmetrical fight with tip-top tech... they aren't goat-herders in the mountains. It would not be pretty at all. Only one side if you can call it a side has the appetite to engage as well.

Currency wars are another issue, but not entirely unrelated.

 

[kkck]

Welp, I don't know shit but before I thought russia was aiming for the rebel provinces in ukraine but now it's looking more and more like russia is going all in and pretty much taking all of it. We might be witnessing the death of a nation.

 

[Jubei_Kibagami]

Welp, I don't know shit but before I thought russia was aiming for the rebel provinces in ukraine but now it's looking more and more like russia is going all in and pretty much taking all of it. We might be witnessing the death of a nation.

Putin has been extremely explicit about demilitarizing Ukraine. And denazifying it. That probably means cutting off the US-backed government and reinstalling the ousted leader until they can have another election (or "election" who knows).

You may be seeing the death of a government. Not a nation per se.

--- Double Post Merged, Feb 24, 2022, Original Post Date: Feb 24, 2022 ---

You know, what you witnessed in 2014 without hysterics then about 'the death of a nation'.

--- Double Post Merged, Feb 24, 2022 ---

More sanctions, no decoupling from SWIFT.

--- Double Post Merged, Feb 24, 2022 ---

Not even sanctioning Putin personally.

 

[kkck]

Putin has been extremely explicit about demilitarizing Ukraine. And denazifying it. That probably means cutting off the US-backed government and reinstalling the ousted leader until they can have another election (or "election" who knows).

You may be seeing the death of a government. Not a nation per se.

--- Double Post Merged, Feb 24, 2022, Original Post Date: Feb 24, 2022 ---

You know, what you witnessed in 2014 without hysterics then about 'the death of a nation'.

--- Double Post Merged, Feb 24, 2022 ---

More sanctions, no decoupling from SWIFT.

--- Double Post Merged, Feb 24, 2022 ---

Not even sanctioning Putin personally.

So... what exactly do you think is happening here? Do you think russia is bombing kiev to kill nazis and once he is done he is leaving? Looking at crimea, it was straight up annexed to russia. Is there any reason to think this will be different? (Legitimate question, I honestly do not know).

 

[Jubei_Kibagami]

So... what exactly do you think is happening here? Do you think russia is bombing kiev to kill nazis and once he is done he is leaving? Looking at crimea, it was straight up annexed to russia. Is there any reason to think this will be different? (Legitimate question, I honestly do not know).

I have no clue either. Personally I didn't think he'd actually move so I'm often wrong with my crystal ball. And I didn't have to say that as I'm not on record here saying that.

I'm just saying what his claim is, and isn't.

I'll go on record and say I don't believe he'll take over Ukraine in entirety for good. I think the republics will be "freed" and act basically as Russian territories.

I think he'll do just what I said, oust the current government and reinstall the previously ousted government.

But I guess it depends on how all this shakes out with the West's reactions.

--- Double Post Merged, Feb 24, 2022, Original Post Date: Feb 24, 2022 ---

It will basically look like something between our involvement in Syria, Iraq, or Libya if I had to guess. (among others)

--- Double Post Merged, Feb 24, 2022 ---

Worth watching

--- Double Post Merged, Feb 24, 2022 ---

Op-Ed: Russia's got a point: The U.S. broke a NATO promise

Moscow solidified its hold on Crimea in April, outlawing the Tatar legislature that had opposed Russia’s annexation of the region since 2014.

www.latimes.com

Worth reading

--- Double Post Merged, Feb 24, 2022 ---

‘Sleeping with the enemy’ Russian troops try to pick up Ukrainian women on Tinder

Russian soldiers poised to invade Ukraine have bombarded women on the other side of the border with Tinder messages Tuesday, according to The Sun.

nypost.com

Only in this modern world. Now we know the assets Putin was after: Ukrainian women.

 

[Sanity Check]

Comparison of United States and Russia Military Strengths (2026)

Comparison of two world military powers in side-by-side format.

www.globalfirepower.com

USA vs Russia

Key stats.

External debt: USA $20+ trillion, Russia $479 billion

The united states carries significantly more debt as a percentage of GDP than russia. Which might mean russia is financially better suited to wage war over the long term.

Tanks: USA 6,612, Russia 12,420

Self Propelled Artillery: USA 1,498, Russia 6,574

Towed Artillery: USA 1,339, Russia 7,571

Mobile Rocket Projectors: USA 1,366, Russia 3,391

Above stats indicate russia prepared for many years to wage a ground war thus having significantly greater numbers and more technologically advanced ground units than the USA.

Russia's mobile rocket projectors may also be capable of detecting & shooting down stealth fighters like the F-22 and F-35.

Oil Consumption: USA 19,960,000 Russia 3,650,000

Above stat indicates russia's military and economy are streamlined to be efficient and consume lower quantities of crude oil.

 

[xi0]

Welp, but things got to a point where it's basically one empire or the other. And russia is definitely the aggressor here, there is no defensive aspect to what is going here.

What L can biden even take? If there's a path here for it then I am all for it but I am not sure what biden can do. Any path forward should also include russia not chunking away at allied countries in the future.

Concessions of some sort. We're dealing with a fellow nuclear power here, the whole "we don't negotiate with terrorists" spiel isn't going to work.

Me and other normies or "political hobbyists". Support might've been the wrong word. Maybe empathy or understanding would've been a better choice? I'm just saying it isn't hard for the media to run with the "Russia bad, Ukraine good" angle and so it'll be harder to push for Biden to resort to appeasement or war because of optics.

Why no appeasement? Because Putin will push for more and we'll look weak.
Why no war? Because Americans shouldn't be put in danger thanks to us meddling in foreign affairs.

I just don't there's a realistic place where Russia's behavior isn't propagandized and ever looked upon favorably by any member of NATO regardless of what they do. Of course, in this situation what they are doing in invading Ukraine removes the possibility entirely anyway. I just wonder if that meant the alternatives would be worse for Russia in the long term anyway and that's why we're here now.

What it comes down to for me personally is the notion that Russia is just doing what they're doing now for fun and not in response to any legitimate security threat just seems like sipping the NATO Kool-Aid.

 

[kkck]

Concessions of some sort. We're dealing with a fellow nuclear power here, the whole "we don't negotiate with terrorists" spiel isn't going to work.

I am all for that but tbh to me it looks like russia was always going to invade ukraine and what few meetings there were regarding de-escalation a week or two back look more like merely distractions.