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Jubei_Kibagami

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"Israel was getting attacked"

Israel are the invaders and getting attacked is to be expected by the owners ( Palestinians), Acknowledging that they are not similar is condoning Israel as invader.
Interestingly enough, that's not even their 'promised land' by Jewish OR Christian history/standards.

That promise was already fulfilled in the OT.
--- Double Post Merged, , Original Post Date: ---

but.. that is russia's excuse for this. An alleged military threat to it. Which no one has a reason to believe is the case.
But... no it's *not*. You're describing an imminent threat or invasion.
 

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I don't think Russia feels that way. Especially given the geographical implications of NATO encirclement. The issue there is the notion that a "military" threat is the only thing that would garner a military response. Clearly that's not always the case.
As I've mentioned before, I don't believe for an fraction of a second even putin believes this. Because... what evidence could there possibly be of such a thing? What sort of non military threat warrants a military response in the 21th century? This is still ultimately about russia preserving its interests.
 

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Interestingly enough, that's not even their 'promised land' by Jewish OR Christian history/standards.

That promise was already fulfilled in the OT.
--- Double Post Merged, , Original Post Date: ---



But... no it's *not*. You're describing an imminent threat or invasion.
The conflict very similar, There is no argument against that. The fact that is Israel/Palestine case is even worse because Israel is a colonizer state, whatsoever, It's not about pointing the similarity anyways, Its about the ugly fact that many people treat other people as lesser humans beings. See how people reacted the Russian aggression vs the Israeli aggression, Extreme sanctions and boycotting by literally everyone against Russia, While Israel didn't face consequences near that.
 

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This is still ultimately about russia preserving its interests.
You're creating a false dichotomy.

Either this is a military threat to Russia

OR

It is Russia preserving its own interests.



What, exactly, prevents it from being both from the Russian perspective?
--- Double Post Merged, , Original Post Date: ---

The conflict very similar, There is no argument against that. The fact that is Israel/Palestine case is even worse because Israel is a colonizer state, whatsoever, It's not about pointing the similarity anyways, Its about the ugly fact that many people treat other people as lesser humans beings. See how people reacted the Russian aggression vs the Israeli aggression, Extreme sanctions and boycotting by literally everyone against Russia, While Israel didn't face consequences near that.
No I agree. It's not 100% analogous.

I also like how it is disregarded because it's 'not recent' - um, as I pointed out that is ongoing, and even Israeli airstrikes in Syria has been happening as short as a few days ago.

Some speak like it's ancient history, when it's STILL 100% ongoing and relevant.
 

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You're creating a false dichotomy.

Either this is a military threat to Russia

OR

It is Russia preserving its own interests.



What, exactly, prevents it from being both from the Russian perspective?
That the claim that there is a military threat to russia is factually bs. What evidence has russia presented that there was a military threat to them at all? Why should their claim that there is a military threat be taken at face value?
 

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That the claim that there is a military threat to russia is factually bs. What evidence has russia presented that there was a military threat to them at all? Why should their claim that there is a military threat be taken at face value?
We've done this dance PAGES ago. You're in denial at this point. NATO expansionist policies and penchant for invading countries and undermining governments they aren't liking is literally a threat to what NATO has deemed a hostile.

If I put a gun in your face, am I a threat?
 

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As I've mentioned before, I don't believe for an fraction of a second even putin believes this. Because... what evidence could there possibly be of such a thing? What sort of non military threat warrants a military response in the 21th century? This is still ultimately about russia preserving its interests.
I think it's preserving it's interests by attempting to remove the threat of NATO military bases on it's largest European border. But for whatever reason Putin seemed to think that they'd be able to remove the existing government and install a puppet in the span of 3 days. So western (and even Ukrainian) takes about Putin never daring to invade were wrong and Putin's calculus about how easy it would be to get the job done were just as incorrect.
 

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I think it's preserving it's interests by attempting to remove the threat of NATO military bases on it's largest European border. But for whatever reason Putin seemed to think that they'd be able to remove the existing government and install a puppet in the span of 3 days. So western (and even Ukrainian) takes about Putin never daring to invade were wrong and Putin's calculus about how easy it would be to get the job done were just as incorrect.
I don't think he's actually trying to conquer the country though. I think he wants the West to do that for him.

He's doing what he knows he can get away with, invading Ukraine (like with Georgia) aka non-NATO countries to appear that he's serious about what he CAN'T get away with - invading NATO countries and nuclear attacks. In this way his bark is bigger than his bite for higher level activities and he's trying to impress with lower level actions. Although invading Ukraine is of course an escalation, maybe mid-tier. This way everyone is scared and he can attempt to force his desires including Ukraine removes from NATO candidates (among others) ans possibly recognizing states in Donbas.
 

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No I agree. It's not 100% analogous.

I also like how it is disregarded because it's 'not recent' - um, as I pointed out that is ongoing, and even Israeli airstrikes in Syria has been happening as short as a few days ago.

Some speak like it's ancient history, when it's STILL 100% ongoing and relevant.
I disagree, because both Ukraine and Palestine share the same essence and that what really matters, You don't steal my house and expect no resistance.

That because people just discriminate each other subconsciously and condone their government action against anyone who don't look similar to them, USA killed 1.5million Iraqi and most of it's presidents if not all whether Republican or Democrat are literally war criminals and they get no sanctions, NATO killed over half a million of humans in middle east. No sanctions, Even Russia bombed Syria a decade ago, and still no sanctions.
 

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I disagree, because both Ukraine and Palestine share the same essence and that what really matters, You don't steal my house and expect no resistance.

That because people just discriminate each other subconsciously and condone their government action against anyone who don't look similar to them, USA killed 1.5million Iraqi and most of it's presidents if not all whether Republican or Democrat are literally war criminals and they get no sanctions, NATO killed over half a million of humans in middle east. No sanctions, Even Russia bombed Syria a decade ago, and still no sanctions.
That's a lot of deaths... hmm, it's almost like NATO is a *threat* to countries it is hostile towards. So, you're telling me with that kind of pedigree you WOULDN'T want them to put missiles near your border, right?



If I watch my neighborhood get home invasions back to back years on end by a group claiming to have the moral authority to do so (it's OK, the homes getting invaded were owned by 'bad guys' - maybe true, maybe not), and in many cases more of the innocent neighbors get shot up than those that were even at risk in the first place (supposedly), and I started hearing chatter about how that group isn't going to set up their ganggang next door to me - they promised - and in fact weren't going to set up in any OTHER closer houses either (I watched while they did so anyways), and I also started seeing their cars arrive, with passengers fully-armed, to the left and the right side of my house, and now they're pulling up in the front as well...

Well, I'm going to fucking see that as a THREAT to me. Even if they promise they won't be invading my home any time soon. Their promises are obviously less than worthless and their threat to civilians in any metric is very real and on record.
 

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I don't think he's actually trying to conquer the country though. I think he wants the West to do that for him.

He's doing what he knows he can get away with, invading Ukraine (like with Georgia) aka non-NATO countries to appear that he's serious about what he CAN'T get away with - invading NATO countries and nuclear attacks. In this way his bark is bigger than his bite for higher level activities and he's trying to impress with lower level actions. Although invading Ukraine is of course an escalation, maybe mid-tier. This way everyone is scared and he can attempt to force his desires including Ukraine removes from NATO candidates (among others) ans possibly recognizing states in Donbas.
I didn't say conquer the country, I said remove the government and install a puppet in it's place.
--- Double Post Merged, , Original Post Date: ---

I think most analysts agree that Russia would not be able to sustain a prolonged occupation
 

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I didn't say conquer the country, I said remove the government and install a puppet in it's place.
--- Double Post Merged, , Original Post Date: ---

I think most analysts agree that Russia would not be able to sustain a prolonged occupation
So, you think he was unaware that occupation is indeed way, way harder?

Again, I think he's leveraging all the bluster he's causing to get the West to comply. That's to remove Ukraine from a potential candidate list for NATO (possibly other states as well), and to recognize the separatists at a minimum. Of course a new government would be icing on the cake, but I doubt that he doesn't recognize that as a bridge too far.

In contract negotiations, or any really, you ask for more than you hope to really get so you can negotiate down.

The only non-negotiable he's stated, AFAIK, is NATO expansion ceased, not a new government.
--- Double Post Merged, ---

@xi0 let me clarify - when I say 'occupy' I don't mean long-term. He'd have to conquer/occupy/take over Kiev in order to get Zelenskyy and forcibly install a new government. That can't be overnight even if he controlled all of Kiev with a snap of his fingers. Just like he rolled on Georgia only to withdraw.
 

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That's a lot of deaths... hmm, it's almost like NATO is a *threat* to countries it is hostile towards. So, you're telling me with that kind of pedigree you WOULDN'T want them to put missiles near your border, right?



If I watch my neighborhood get home invasions back to back years on end by a group claiming to have the moral authority to do so (it's OK, the homes getting invaded were owned by 'bad guys' - maybe true, maybe not), and in many cases more of the innocent neighbors get shot up than those that were even at risk in the first place (supposedly), and I started hearing chatter about how that group isn't going to set up their ganggang next door to me - they promised - and in fact weren't going to set up in any OTHER closer houses either (I watched while they did so anyways), and I also started seeing their cars arrive, with passengers fully-armed, to the left and the right side of my house, and now they're pulling up in the front as well...

Well, I'm going to fucking see that as a THREAT to me. Even if they promise they won't be invading my home any time soon. Their promises are obviously less than worthless and their threat to civilians in any metric is very real and on record.
I really find the whole NATO excuse to start the invasion is really stupid because he keep threatening everyone with nukes which make the whole notion of war with Ukraine is pointless, First, I agree that Russia also has the right to defend itself against NATO but also Ukraine has the right the join NATO and secure itself. There is a fact that Russia isn't strong enough to go against all Europe, If he succeed to invade Ukraine, He won't sustain it, Then he will have to deal with Sweden and Finland. Russia can't sustain such catastrophic strikes for its economy, The easier route is threatening with a russian nuclear respond if someone dared to invade Russia.
 

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I think the comparison to Israel-Palestinian conflict is also awkward. But I also think the obvious difference in attitudes towards the Ukrainians vs the Palestinians is quite conspicuous.
I think that's mainly why there's the comparison there, especially with how people react to Middle Eastern countries being bombed on a daily basis vs. Ukraine being attacked. People support Ukrainians defending themselves (as they should), but when Palestinians do it or a Middle Eastern country does it, they get labeled a terrorist.
 

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I think it's preserving it's interests by attempting to remove the threat of NATO military bases on it's largest European border. But for whatever reason Putin seemed to think that they'd be able to remove the existing government and install a puppet in the span of 3 days. So western (and even Ukrainian) takes about Putin never daring to invade were wrong and Putin's calculus about how easy it would be to get the job done were just as incorrect.
Well, sure, but for the purposes of my post I made the distinction between it's alleged military interests/threats and it's other geopolitical interests to get the point across more easily. Add to that the miscalculation of the response the world would have against russia. While I don't think putin cares that much about sanctions he probably didn't expect them this quick. He also probably didn't expect the ukranian president to become an instant hit on the internet (his speeches have definitely had an impact) and that EU countries would be so brazen as to send weapons to ukraine. 2 weeks ago if you had presented such an scenario to me I would have guessed this would be about the point at which the nukes start flying.
 

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I think that's mainly why there's the comparison there, especially with how people react to Middle Eastern countries being bombed on a daily basis vs. Ukraine being attacked. People support Ukrainians defending themselves (as they should), but when Palestinians do it or a Middle Eastern country does it, they get labeled a terrorist.
The reason it's clumsy is that in this comparison there's no argument that exists regarding Ukraine's sovereignty. But the difference in reactions is obvious.

Well, sure, but for the purposes of my post I made the distinction between it's alleged military interests/threats and it's other geopolitical interests to get the point across more easily. Add to that the miscalculation of the response the world would have against russia. While I don't think putin cares that much about sanctions he probably didn't expect them this quick. He also probably didn't expect the ukranian president to become an instant hit on the internet (his speeches have definitely had an impact) and that EU countries would be so brazen as to send weapons to ukraine. 2 weeks ago if you had presented such an scenario to me I would have guessed this would be about the point at which the nukes start flying.
Right, but NATO expansion is a military threat to Russia's geopolitical interests, there's just no way around that. Offering membership to more border states is just unnecessary escalation. Invasion was a completely insane move though.

As far as nukes go, I just hope Putin has a meaningful amount of self-preservation, otherwise...
 

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We've done this dance PAGES ago. You're in denial at this point. NATO expansionist policies and penchant for invading countries and undermining governments they aren't liking is literally a threat to what NATO has deemed a hostile.

If I put a gun in your face, am I a threat?
I don't disagree with that. Nato-US-EU has definitely been a military threat to plenty of places, primarily in the middle east. Starting the war in iraq, getting involved in the syria, lybia conflicts, backing saudi arabia in yemen... and so many other... pointless waste of lives that either didn't make the world a better place or even made it worst... Nato is a military threat to plenty of places, primarily in the middle east. But that doesn't mean there's a non zero chance of it invading russia. it's other interests? sure. but a direct attack to russia? Absolutely not, that's a baseless lie.

But... that's not what's going on here. And with today's technology any super power can reach anywhere with its missiles. A few hundred kms of distance won't change that. Russia and the US have had the capacity to nuke the planet ten times over for decades now..
--- Double Post Merged, , Original Post Date: ---

The reason it's clumsy is that in this comparison there's no argument that exists regarding Ukraine's sovereignty. But the difference in reactions is obvious.



Right, but NATO expansion is a military threat to Russia's geopolitical interests, there's just no way around that. Offering membership to more border states is just unnecessary escalation. Invasion was a completely insane move though.

As far as nukes go, I just hope Putin has a meaningful amount of self-preservation, otherwise...
I 100% agree with that. It's pretty much what i've been saying.
 

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Russia isn't strong enough to go against all Europe

...

USA vs Russia

Key stats.

External debt: USA $20+ trillion, Russia $479 billion

The united states carries significantly more debt as a percentage of GDP than russia. Which might mean russia is financially better suited to wage war over the long term.

Tanks: USA 6,612, Russia 12,420

Self Propelled Artillery: USA 1,498, Russia 6,574

Towed Artillery: USA 1,339, Russia 7,571

Mobile Rocket Projectors: USA 1,366, Russia 3,391

Above stats indicate russia prepared for many years to wage a ground war thus having significantly greater numbers and more technologically advanced ground units than the USA.

Russia's mobile rocket projectors may also be capable of detecting & shooting down stealth fighters like the F-22 and F-35.

Oil Consumption: USA 19,960,000 Russia 3,650,000

Above stat indicates russia's military and economy are streamlined to be efficient and consume lower quantities of crude oil.


Later, I'll try to look up how many tanks, artillery pieces and mobile rocket launchers europe has to contrast with the statistics russia is credited with having. ^

@Raven, you're the one who is good at strategy games. Maybe you can shed some insight on things.

Many nations today are paper tigers banking on past historical glory from centuries past.

Russia however may not be a paper tiger, like most of europe.

It may be a real tiger. At least as far as their military power goes.


🐯
 
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Why do those key figured ignore airpower? I don't see debt being relevant in that number. So long as the US dollar remains the stronger currency at least... And how does russia's economy being just slightly larger than mexico's factor in to that?
 

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Why do those key figured ignore airpower? I don't see debt being relevant in that number. So long as the US dollar remains the stronger currency at least... And how does russia's economy being just slightly larger than mexico's factor in to that?

Russia's mobile rocket launchers carry a longer range than america's stealth aircraft. They have reasonable chances of detecting F-22's and F-35's and shooting them down. Aircraft are negated by russia's ground game. If you want I can go into the basic fundamental reasons why this is so. They're all basic science.

America has normalized throwing mountains of money at things, while producing zero results. Russia is the polar opposite, they spend considerably less and achieve far more than the united states does.

The united states is NASA who spends billions and can't produce a rocket capable of attaining orbit. Russia is Space X who spends 100 times less than NASA and produces far superior results.

Basic science:


Why do those key figured ignore airpower?

BTW do you remember last thursday, when this was touched upon:

You're forgetting a few facets of basic history.

Turkey had a choice of american F-35s or russian built S-400 missiles.

Turkey choose russian S-400 missiles over the american built F-35 stealth fighter, despite suffering a big backlash for making that choice.

That basic history somewhat explains why america's air power may not fare well if its deployed versus russia.

S-400 is a russian mobile rocket launcher(which can shoot down F-22s and F-35s).

...

And this is why I don't care about political discussion.

I know no one will remember anything I said more than 2 days after I said it.


:toc
 
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