Fall NFL Thread

[Kaiten]

Re: The NFL Thread

Wow. I didn't expect for there to be this many firings in one day. It's like every single bad team in the league fired one of their personnel whether it be coach or general manager. I bet these guys are saying f**k news years right now

It was a total bloodbath, worst year I can remember. All deserving too.

Who I think should win:

• MVP: Adrian Peterson
• Defensive Player of the Year: Von Miller
• Offensive Rookie of the Year: Robert Griffin III
• Defensive Rookie of the Year: Janoris Jenkins
• Coach of the Year: Bruce Arians
• Comeback Player of the Year: Peyton Manning

Who I believe will win:

• MVP: Peyton Manning (QBs win over RBs)
• Defensive Player of the Year: J.J. Watt (he had a poor year at the end, and even though he had 20.5 sacks, he's not a real impact player in big games)
• Offensive Rookie of the Year: Andrew Luck (he was the third best rookie QB, but it's the way the NFL is)
• Defensive Rookie of the Year: Janoris Jenkins
• Coach of the Year: Mike Shanahan/Pete Carroll (I can't decide, but I think one of the two will get it)
• Comeback Player of the Year: Adrian Peterson

This years comeback player of the year is basically runner up MVP, no? I'd consider Shanny over Carrol for coach of the year only because he taught himself an entirely new offense over the summer, successfully instituting a pro version of a college offense. Neither he nor Kyle have ever called plays for the pistol before, yet it was the Redskins base formation this season. I still think Arians deserves all the credit Andrew Luck is going to get for the Colts turnaround this season, and holding the team together after Coach Pagano's illness. All the analysts at Fox seem to think Luck should win rookie of the year. Personally, after all three rookie QB's had such good years, I could not vote for the one with the most interceptions. RGIII and Wilson were so much more accurate.

 

[BASED Shinigami]

Re: The NFL Thread

It was a total bloodbath, worst year I can remember. All deserving too.

What about Lovie Smith? I don't particularly like that firing because all the blame cant be placed on him for the recent struggles the Bears have endured.

---------- Post added at 04:59 PM ---------- Previous post was at 04:53 PM ----------

I realize someone has to be held accountable for their failures, but I just don't think firing him was fair or simply the right thing to do.

 

[FrostyMouse]

Re: The NFL Thread

It was a total bloodbath, worst year I can remember. All deserving too.

I just wish that Rex Ryan had gotten the axe as well so that we wouldn't have to hear about the Jets anymore.

This years comeback player of the year is basically runner up MVP, no? I'd consider Shanny over Carrol for coach of the year only because he taught himself an entirely new offense over the summer, successfully instituting a pro version of a college offense. Neither he nor Kyle have ever called plays for the pistol before, yet it was the Redskins base formation this season. I still think Arians deserves all the credit Andrew Luck is going to get for the Colts turnaround this season, and holding the team together after Coach Pagano's illness. All the analysts at Fox seem to think Luck should win rookie of the year. Personally, after all three rookie QB's had such good years, I could not vote for the one with the most interceptions. RGIII and Wilson were so much more accurate.

Yeah, the comeback player is essentially the runner up MVP this season. Originally I picked Shanahan, but then I went back and gave Carroll more credit than I had previously. Admittedly, Carroll's coaching the same way that he coached with the Jets, 49ers, Patriots, and USC, so it's not that big of a jump, whereas Shanahan and Kyle had to make a big change this season. If it came down to Shanahan or Carroll, I'd pick Shanahan.

Yeah, I agree. I think Arians has undeservedly not gotten enough credit, and I think that he deserves to win, but because he was an interim and didn't coach all 16 games, I think that puts things not in his favor; if Arians had been the head coach from day one and they'd gotten these results under him, I would believe that he'd be coach of the year, but he's not. I know that you said that interim coaches can win, but has an interim coach ever won? It hasn't always been Andrew Luck this season, and you can just look at his interception stat to see that.

Even ignoring the interception stat, both RG3 and Wilson had better seasons than Luck. Wilson tied Peyton's rookie TD record of 26, for example. It'll be a sham when Luck wins it, but we know that he'll win it. When was the last time, other than Peyton himself, that you heard a college QB hyped up the way Luck was? It's nice that the Colts made it to the playoffs, but I really wanted to see him do significantly worse than RG3 just so that people could stop talking about how Luck was a god. I've noticed that none of the analysts seem to talk about how Luck threw as many picks as Sanchez, and instead choose to talk about how he took a two win team to the playoffs, regardless of the fact that Peyton had taken the same team to the playoffs for years. RG3 doesn't seem to get half the credit for the Redskins making the playoffs, nor have people talked about the Redskins' seven game winning streak very much. It really seems that people want Luck to win the Rookie of the Year, regardless of the fact that two other rookies outperformed him.

 

[xi0]

Re: The NFL Thread

I wouldn't pick Luck over Griffin III or Wilson, but his team had the least talent and none of the rookie QBs won more games than him as the starter. Football isn't Baseball, as stats do not give as accurate a depiction of a player. However, in a race as close as this, they do matter. Another thing that could potentially work against him is that the Colt's opponents strength of schedule was 30th in the league. The Redskins SOS was 24th, and the Seahawks 17th.

The race is between RGIII and Russel Wilson. Their stats are incredibly close. Wilson started one more game and won one more game, but he scored more total touchdowns. Griffin turned the ball over the least, but did put the ball on the ground twice as often. Russel Wilson threw 10 Ints, twice as much as Griffin. They actually had an equal amount of pass attempts, which is pretty funny, with Griffin having a marginally better completion percentage. They were both revelations running the ball, but Griffin had more yards on the ground. RGIII's slightly better stats could be chalked up to his team playing more close games, as the Seahawks blew out several teams while facing better competition. However, he was injured and played one less game than Wilson.

It's a total tossup in my opinion. I think RGIII will win it, but it could go to either one of them.

 

[FrostyMouse]

Re: The NFL Thread

On the other hand, the Seahawks beat the 49ers and the Patriots (the win over GB was a bs call by replacement refs, but it still counts), something that neither the Redskins or the Colts did. The Colts got blown out by 35 at NE, and I don't think the Redskins played the 49ers. I can't recall if the Colts beat GB or not.

I think that the SoS is important, Gary, and I think on that, Wilson sort of deserves it, but RG3 is more electrifying, so I'd give it to him as they're so close. Plus, RG3 won his division.

 

[xi0]

Re: The NFL Thread

On the other hand, the Seahawks beat the 49ers and the Patriots (the win over GB was a bs call by replacement refs, but it still counts), something that neither the Redskins or the Colts did. The Colts got blown out by 35 at NE, and I don't think the Redskins played the 49ers. I can't recall if the Colts beat GB or not.

I think that the SoS is important, Gary, and I think on that, Wilson sort of deserves it, but RG3 is more electrifying, so I'd give it to him as they're so close. Plus, RG3 won his division.

The QB position is the most important position on the field for a reason. You can't pin a win solely on the play of a QB, but it's damn close depending on the game. But that Seahawks defense is monstrous and he benefited from their play. You can't say that about the Redskins defense with their injuries, or the Colts defense which has always been an overachieving bunch - they're just devoid of talent (You can bet your sweet ass that Pagano will change that though, I don't doubt that.)

I've completely forgotten when the awards are announced or even if they're only supposed to take the regular season into account. Either RGIII or Wilson will be home this time a week from now since they're matched up in the Wildcard round. I'm still not sure if one game can allow either of them to distinguish themselves.

 

[Kaiten]

Re: The NFL Thread

Stats do matter in football, but unlike baseball, football stats must be parsed. Completion percentage means a lot, unless the quarterback only throws check downs. Strength of schedule probably should not come into rookie of the year discussion. Most ROY recipients did not even play for winning teams. Discussing SoS also has the potential of opening the conversation up to a whole host of other, more tangential stats, like home and away record. Statistically, Wilson and RGIII are close. I give RGIII the edge in that he plays a greater role in the offense. Seattle is Marshawn Lynch first, Wilson is asked to do less in regards to running the offense. In the read option, RGIII has to make more calls at the line, and has a greater role in directing the offense.

 

[xi0]

Re: The NFL Thread

Stats do matter in football, but unlike baseball, football stats must be parsed. Completion percentage means a lot, unless the quarterback only throws check downs. Strength of schedule probably should not come into rookie of the year discussion. Most ROY recipients did not even play for winning teams. Discussing SoS also has the potential of opening the conversation up to a whole host of other, more tangential stats, like home and away record. Statistically, Wilson and RGIII are close. I give RGIII the edge in that he plays a greater role in the offense. Seattle is Marshawn Lynch first, Wilson is asked to do less in regards to running the offense. In the read option, RGIII has to make more calls at the line, and has a greater role in directing the offense.

Do you think RGIII would have had the same kind of year without the play of Alfred Morris? I really think it goes both ways here.

 

[Kaiten]

Re: The NFL Thread

Couldn't the same be said about every successful quarterback in the history of the NFL? Every single one has benefited from the presence of a great offensive line, running back, or wide receiver. Would Joe Montana have been as great if not for Jerry Rice? Does it really matter?

 

[FrostyMouse]

Re: The NFL Thread

I would actually say that when we won our three SBs, we did it primarily with defense, not offense. Once Brady became "great," even when our O-Line improved and we had Hall of Fame caliber receivers, we failed over and over.

 

[xi0]

Re: The NFL Thread

Couldn't the same be said about every successful quarterback in the history of the NFL? Every single one has benefited from the presence of a great offensive line, running back, or wide receiver. Would Joe Montana have been as great if not for Jerry Rice? Does it really matter?

My point is that what you wrote seemed to diminish Russel Wilson's role in the offense, by saying it was Marshawn Lynch first. Both teams are successful off of play-action, but Alfred Morris's stats are just as good as Lynch's, if not a little better. Yeah, Lynch has the name but I doubt anyone was caught sleeping with Morris halfway through the season. I think both of the Backs have had an equal role in their teams success this season. I don't think I can objectively look at either offense and really know that Griffin has a greater role in his offense than Wilson. It's not as if I'm in any of the meeting rooms.

I'm fully aware of how effective the Pistol has been for Griffin, but that also comes down to scheme, something Griffin as a rookie probably isn't responsible for (Just a guess). He is impressive making the option calls though. But even with all of this, Griffin doesn't really outclass Wilson in any noteworthy stat category. I still think he'll win it though. Wilson benefited from having one hell of a defense, while Griffin didn't. That matters too.

And I brought up S.O.S. because I feel it is a relevant stat to gauge the competition a player, mostly QBs, has faced. I don't think it's that tangential of a stat to be honest.

 

[FrostyMouse]

Re: The NFL Thread

Ray Lewis is named to the Pro Bowl and states that he will be retiring at the end of season.

---------- Post added at 01:18 PM ---------- Previous post was at 12:25 PM ----------

I hope that the Ravens can find a Ray Lewis replacement, because it would feel really odd if the Ravens become a team that aren't about defense.

In terms of the draft, I'm hoping that we trade up and get Matt Barkley, because Ryan Mallett's clearly not the future for us and I think Barkley is a great talent. Plus, he'd able to learn Tom and improve. As much as I'd love for Tom to play for 10 more years, realistically, we have 3-4 years left with him, at which point, if we can't find a QB, we'll just slip back into mediocrity.

 

[BASED Shinigami]

Re: The NFL Thread

^He got named to the Pro Bowl? If I'm correct hasn't he been in and out of the lineup all season long with injuries?! This doesn't really make sense.

 

[Kaiten]

Re: The NFL Thread

I hope that the Ravens can find a Ray Lewis replacement, because it would feel really odd if the Ravens become a team that aren't about defense.

With Joe Flacco starting, not likely

Good middle linebackers can be found in the mid to late first round, the Ravens will be able to find talent if that is what they are looking for. Replacing the all time face of the franchise can be hard, maybe more so for the fans. Replacing him in the locker room will likely be the hardest part. Wouldn't it be funny if Manti Te'o was available when the Ravens pick?

 

[FrostyMouse]

Re: The NFL Thread

With Joe Flacco starting, not likely

Good middle linebackers can be found in the mid to late first round, the Ravens will be able to find talent if that is what they are looking for. Replacing the all time face of the franchise can be hard, maybe more so for the fans. Replacing him in the locker room will likely be the hardest part. Wouldn't it be funny if Manti Te'o was available when the Ravens pick?

Yeah, I don't think there's anyone that can ever replace Ray as the face of the franchise or his impact.

It would be funny if he was available, but as strange as this might seem, I don't really see Manti Te'o translating to the pro level all that well. It's just a feeling, so it might be crazy, but I just have this feeling.

 

[xi0]

Re: The NFL Thread

Ray Lewis is named to the Pro Bowl and states that he will be retiring at the end of season.

---------- Post added at 01:18 PM ---------- Previous post was at 12:25 PM ----------

I hope that the Ravens can find a Ray Lewis replacement, because it would feel really odd if the Ravens become a team that aren't about defense.

I'm not sure if many teams will be about defense anymore with the direction the league has headed. We've actually played better on defense with him out of the lineup, so I'd like to think of this year as a an anomaly stats-wise.

With Joe Flacco starting, not likely

Good middle linebackers can be found in the mid to late first round, the Ravens will be able to find talent if that is what they are looking for. Replacing the all time face of the franchise can be hard, maybe more so for the fans. Replacing him in the locker room will likely be the hardest part. Wouldn't it be funny if Manti Te'o was available when the Ravens pick?

26 - The number of starting QBs the Redskins have had since 1985. Let's see some playoff wins from this regime first before you start bashing other winning QBs

Middle Linebacker isn't as valued a position as it was when Lewis came into the league. I think we have talent at the position already, but not anyone who can carry the respect Lewis does or lead. Maybe Jameel McClain, but with his injury, who knows. It'll be interesting to see what Ed Reed does after this season, depending on the outcome.

Te'o would probably be the most ideal replacement, but I'd have to see how the draft process plays out and where out final drafting position will be before I think that's feasible or not. He's moved from a late first rounder to mid first rounder in most mock drafts. With his Heisman nomination, I think his performance in the Championship game can only help his draft stock, not hurt it. Ozzie doesn't like moving up like that. He did it once for Kyle Boller since the Pats block us from getting Byron Leftwich and we all know how that worked out...

Yeah, I don't think there's anyone that can ever replace Ray as the face of the franchise or his impact.

It would be funny if he was available, but as strange as this might seem, I don't really see Manti Te'o translating to the pro level all that well. It's just a feeling, so it might be crazy, but I just have this feeling.

Based on what?

 

[FrostyMouse]

Re: The NFL Thread

I'm not sure if many teams will be about defense anymore with the direction the league has headed. We've actually played better on defense with him out of the lineup, so I'd like to think of this year as a an anomaly stats-wise.

That is true. It really seems as if defense is on the way out in the league.

Based on what?

I said that it's a feeling. I can't explain it, but it's just this feeling I have. There's nothing that I can point at as evidence for what I'm saying, but he's just not someone that I think will transfer over properly. I could be completely wrong, however.

 

[xi0]

Re: The NFL Thread

I said that it's a feeling. I can't explain it, but it's just this feeling I have. There's nothing that I can point at as evidence for what I'm saying, but he's just not someone that I think will transfer over properly. I could be completely wrong, however.

You see this with skill-position players, and someone who might be considered undersized for their position in the NFL, but he doesn't really fall into any of those categories. I have no clue what is 40 time, bench press, vertical leap, etc is going to be, but outside of that, him not translating over to the NFL probably wouldn't be for any physical reason IMO. It would be a mental thing.

 

[FrostyMouse]

Re: The NFL Thread

You see this with skill-position players, and someone who might be considered undersized for their position in the NFL, but he doesn't really fall into any of those categories. I have no clue what is 40 time, bench press, vertical leap, etc is going to be, but outside of that, him not translating over to the NFL probably wouldn't be for any physical reason IMO. It would be a mental thing.

Yeah, I know what you mean and it might be a mental thing in the end.

There's just something about Manti Te'o which makes me think that something won't work on the pro level. It's like Sam Bradford and all of them. Players who looked good on the college level, but something about their eye test told me that they wouldn't translate to the pro level well. I never liked Vince Young, regardless of him winning a national championship, in college and it didn't work out for him on the pro level.

Manti Te'o, as you said, doesn't seem to have any of the obvious problems that players who fail to translate over to the pro level usually do, but as we've discussed before, MLBs aren't nearly as important as they used to be and while his numbers look great on the college level, he's not going to get all of those picks or sacks from his position. He hasn't really faced any decent QBs, nor has he faced any really top notch OLs, and I just don't think that he'll work on the pro level. I think he'll be exposed on slants and routes by WRs and I don't see him being as effective against NFL OLs. Now, if Te'o goes to a great defensive team where there's a great DL, he'll be in a much better position to do stuff, but I don't think that if he goes to a team with a mediocre defense that he'll be effective at all. He's not someone that I see being able to do it on his own.

I could see Belichick taking a chance on him at around 20, perhaps, although that would require us to move up, and if we're moving up, I'd rather see us get Matt Barkley, but he'll probably go in the top 10 because plenty of teams need QBs.

 

[xi0]

Re: The NFL Thread

Yeah, I know what you mean and it might be a mental thing in the end.

There's just something about Manti Te'o which makes me think that something won't work on the pro level. It's like Sam Bradford and all of them. Players who looked good on the college level, but something about their eye test told me that they wouldn't translate to the pro level well. I never liked Vince Young, regardless of him winning a national championship, in college and it didn't work out for him on the pro level.

Manti Te'o, as you said, doesn't seem to have any of the obvious problems that players who fail to translate over to the pro level usually do, but as we've discussed before, MLBs aren't nearly as important as they used to be and while his numbers look great on the college level, he's not going to get all of those picks or sacks from his position. He hasn't really faced any decent QBs, nor has he faced any really top notch OLs, and I just don't think that he'll work on the pro level. I think he'll be exposed on slants and routes by WRs and I don't see him being as effective against NFL OLs. Now, if Te'o goes to a great defensive team where there's a great DL, he'll be in a much better position to do stuff, but I don't think that if he goes to a team with a mediocre defense that he'll be effective at all. He's not someone that I see being able to do it on his own.

I could see Belichick taking a chance on him at around 20, perhaps, although that would require us to move up, and if we're moving up, I'd rather see us get Matt Barkley, but he'll probably go in the top 10 because plenty of teams need QBs.

Can't that be said about any rookie though? There's some more severe cases, but anyone who gets drafted by a perennial basement-dweller is at an automatic disadvantage. The good organizations cater to the players they spend the most money on.